RW Matvei Michkov - HC Sochi, KHL (2023 Draft) - PART 3

[Fyodorov]

It is taken as given here that Bedard is in a tier of his own as a player, regardless of politics. That's a false assumption.

I think everyone knows that's because he's Canadian lol

 

[majormajor]

That’s such BS and you know it. Everyone comes over. Everyone… And Michkov will not be the exception playing his whole career in Russia. The one and only question will be who are the GMs who are stupid enough not to take the future best Player on this Planet an will look super ludicrous in 3 years.

You may have forgotten Mozyakin.

Michkov is far better and will likely go to North America but with the political situation in Russia changing I think there is a nonzero risk that Michkov will be paid/pressured to stay past 2026 as a sort of political win.

GMs don't like this sort of risk because it is the sort of thing that will get you fired. No one will get fired for picking Adam Fantilli or Connor Bedard if they become 1Cs, even if Michkov is more valuable.

 

[Boner Champ]

You may have forgotten Mozyakin.

Michkov is far better and will likely go to North America but with the political situation in Russia changing I think there is a nonzero risk that Michkov will be paid/pressured to stay past 2026 as a sort of political win.

GMs don't like this sort of risk because it is the sort of thing that will get you fired. No one will get fired for picking Adam Fantilli or Connor Bedard if they become 1Cs, even if Michkov is more valuable.

See, I half agree with you. There absolutely is a political risk. Sure most Russians have come over but as you say there's a nonzero risk - both that the economics might make sense for him to stay and that geopolitics deteriorate enough for a new East-West wall to go up. Look how much the world has changed in the past 3 years.

Where I disagree is on the management risk. IMO it would actually be less risky to pick Michkov ahead of anyone but Bedard because the risk of him underperforming is far less: not only is he clearly less visible playing in Russia but the majority of fans have no idea how to evaluate his performance in Russian leagues. You pick Fantilli over Carlsson for instance - and can get slaughtered if he doesn't measure up.

As a GM, by taking Michkov you're really buying yourself 3 years.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Best prospect since McDavid, and the Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin trio before that.

 

[QJL]

He won't even be getting into his prime, he'll be 21.

Yes, 21, the beginning of many primes.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Well, not playing in the VHL right now. People say he's been called up to the main team. Will probably play 4 min in the next KHL game. Or even less... Pity, I'd prefer him staying in the VHL and playing 1st line minutes.

 

[Fantomas]

Michkov not getting big minutes in the KHL to begin the season made sense because the goal was to get him into playing shape as he was coming off an injury. Hence the VHL stint.

Now there’s an opportunity to ease him into KHL action and the objective is likely to ensure that he’s a key factor on the team going forward.

All of this makes sense to me. Michkov is being handled well, and his development is in good hands. Getting a little tired of seeing knee-jerk pessimism from certain armchair experts here. If Michkov’s KHL icetime stays low for a sustained amount of time then we can complain. But this hasn’t happened, so I don’t get the b*tching. I guess this just comes naturally to some?

 

[Kshahdoo]

And SKA-Neva lost without him...

Probably his most shocking VHL statistics: SKA-Neva with Michkov is 7-1-0, SKA-Neva without Michkov is 5-0-7.

 

[NatusVincere]

And SKA-Neva lost without him...

Probably his most shocking VHL statistics: SKA-Neva with Michkov is 7-1-0, SKA-Neva without Michkov is 5-0-7.

And the 2nd most maybe is that SKA-Neva has one of the worst PP in the league. Only 15 goals so far and Michkov is 5+2 on the PP. In other words, he is involved in almost half of Nevas PP goals (and didn’t even play half of the schedule)… or without Michkov, Neva's man advantage is almost the worst in the entire league. And without Buch too it’s maybe is the worst.

 

[FourQuarters]

He only played 9 games so far this season… The sample is too small.

 

[lawrence]

I believe he will come to na when his contract is done. The conflict should be over by then.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Played the whole 1:35 in the KHL and his team still lost 3-1...

 

[Kshahdoo]

He only played 9 games so far this season… The sample is too small.

Fantilli played 10 games and that's enough to hype him as the future 2OA at the very least...

 

[NatusVincere]

I think or hope he gets a real full game against Khabarovsk. Otherwise it wouldn't make any sense at all to pull him out of his top 6 role at Neva to play 6 time zones away 1 min for SKA.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I think or hope he gets a real full game against Khabarovsk. Otherwise it wouldn't make any sense at all to pull him out of his top 6 role at Neva to play 6 time zones away 1 min for SKA.

You underestimate Rotten's assholeness...

 

[FourQuarters]

Fantilli played 10 games and that's enough to hype him as the future 2OA at the very least...

oh I'm not saying that michkov isn't good, I just think more games would be better for his development. I'm sorry for the mistake in my words.

 

[Kshahdoo]

oh I'm not saying that michkov isn't good, I just think more games would be better for his development. I'm sorry for the mistake in my words.

Ah, I see. Of course the more the better, and not 1:35/game, of course...

 

[blinkman360]

Michkov not getting big minutes in the KHL to begin the season made sense because the goal was to get him into playing shape as he was coming off an injury. Hence the VHL stint.

Now there’s an opportunity to ease him into KHL action and the objective is likely to ensure that he’s a key factor on the team going forward.

All of this makes sense to me. Michkov is being handled well, and his development is in good hands. Getting a little tired of seeing knee-jerk pessimism from certain armchair experts here. If Michkov’s KHL icetime stays low for a sustained amount of time then we can complain. But this hasn’t happened, so I don’t get the b*tching. I guess this just comes naturally to some?

Are you new to sports?

 

[badfish]

I have a theory that Michkov is using his contract as a way to manipulate which team he goes to in the draft similar to how Jagr did it in his draft year.

For those of you who don't know the story, Jagr wanted to play in Pittsburgh which had the 5th pick, so he told the teams in the 1-4 spot he wouldn't come over for the next few years, and then told the Penguins he'd come over tomorrow if they picked him. The rest is history.

Similarly, I wonder if Michkov might tell teams he doesn't want to go to that he will honour the contract, while telling teams he does want to go to he'd be willing to buy it out early.

Obviously you can't get enough info in Google searches to see if this is being considered but what would have to be true for this scenario to happen:

- Michkov would have to be willing and able to buy out the contract
- there would have to be a team he desires to play with probably in the top 3 or 4 because his talent level is so high I don't think he falls past there anyway
- When radulov has to buy out his contract it was purported he had to pay 2/3 of the contract value to buy out of a contract in the KHL. Michkovs contract would have to be low enough that he could do this without compromising his financial future.
- I looked on twitter and saw speculation his contract was anywhere from $1 to $6M USD per year, but that was pre-sanctions so this value might have gone up a bit.
- If it's at the lower end of that range, he could likely still buy out his contract and come out ahead financially over the first 5 years of his contract, but it does carry some risk if he gets injured (but I think there's more upside opportunity to downside risk here)
- he would have to have access to financial resources to do this. This could be a combination of previous earnings or maybe a loan, but I think given his reputation/projection he could probably get a private loan at least
- he would have to not fear any repercussions to him or his family, etc. For doing so - something hard to get clarity on but Malkins story could offer some insights

I recognize there's no way to prove this as being possible, but if I had made up my mind I didn't want to play for one of the teams that are regular bottom dwellers this might be a strategy I employed.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'd be shocked if he falls to 5. Waiting 3 years isn't really that big of a deal, and then you are getting a fully developed star winger. Most top 5 picks aren't really making much of an impact from 18-21 anyways, especially when you consider they are typically playing for lottery teams anyway.

Depends on the position. If any position is suited to making a quick impact in the NHL it's wingers, as it has the least responsibility, and is more about creating, than having to be reactive to NHL speed (hence why defenders tend to take longer, and Centers have more issues). Smaller skill guys like Patrick Kane and Marner were quite impactful as soon as they entered the league (while Marner spent a D+1 year in junior unlike Kane). Other guys like the Tkachuks', Laine, Landeskog, Hall, and A. Svechnikov were quite impactful. Lucas Raymond had a great start to his career last year. Most of the top 5 wingers who were highly touted but failed to make an impact early on, never really did like Drouin, Yakupov, Dal Colle, and Puljujarvi. Huberdeau was a weird case where he had a strong rookie year at 19, but then regressed and re-emerged, and the obvious exception to this is Blake Wheeler.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I love people. There are more Russians in the league than almost ever but they still keep saying "there's no guarantee if he'll come over"...

Additionally, which Russians have not come over?

The other claim made is that Russian players sign longer contracts in Russia. Why is that a bad thing? Why should Khustnutdinov play two years in the AHL instead of two more in the KHL?

There's a long recent history where Russian forwards develop much better in the KHL than AHL/NA Juniors.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Michkov not getting big minutes in the KHL to begin the season made sense because the goal was to get him into playing shape as he was coming off an injury. Hence the VHL stint.

Now there’s an opportunity to ease him into KHL action and the objective is likely to ensure that he’s a key factor on the team going forward.

All of this makes sense to me. Michkov is being handled well, and his development is in good hands. Getting a little tired of seeing knee-jerk pessimism from certain armchair experts here. If Michkov’s KHL icetime stays low for a sustained amount of time then we can complain. But this hasn’t happened, so I don’t get the b*tching. I guess this just comes naturally to some?

This should've happened last season. He's in his draft season. He's also a late birthday.

SKA is not so good that the best Russian prospect of his generation isn't good enough to play a top 6 role for them in his draft season.

 

[Albatros]

I have a theory that Michkov is using his contract as a way to manipulate which team he goes to in the draft similar to how Jagr did it in his draft year.

For those of you who don't know the story, Jagr wanted to play in Pittsburgh which had the 5th pick, so he told the teams in the 1-4 spot he wouldn't come over for the next few years, and then told the Penguins he'd come over tomorrow if they picked him. The rest is history.

It wasn't uncommon for top draft picks to stay in Europe for a bit longer at the time. For example the 1989 first overall Mats Sundin spent his season with the Djurgårdens IF in Sweden. It's hard to see how Québec would have changed this in a year with Jágr if they were seriously interested in him over Owen Nolan.

 

[badfish]

It wasn't uncommon for top draft picks to stay in Europe for a bit longer at the time. For example the 1989 first overall Mats Sundin spent his season with the Djurgårdens IF in Sweden. It's hard to see how Québec would have changed this in a year with Jágr if they were seriously interested in him over Owen Nolan.

Sure, I'm just relying on the oral history

How Jaromir Jagr may have manipulated the 1990 NHL draft in his favor | FOX Sports

The 18-year-old Czech winger did his best to make sure he landed in Pittsburgh.

www.google.com

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Depends on the position. If any position is suited to making a quick impact in the NHL it's wingers, as it has the least responsibility, and is more about creating, than having to be reactive to NHL speed (hence why defenders tend to take longer, and Centers have more issues). Smaller skill guys like Patrick Kane and Marner were quite impactful as soon as they entered the league (while Marner spent a D+1 year in junior unlike Kane). Other guys like the Tkachuks', Laine, Landeskog, Hall, and A. Svechnikov were quite impactful. Lucas Raymond had a great start to his career last year. Most of the top 5 wingers who were highly touted but failed to make an impact early on, never really did like Drouin, Yakupov, Dal Colle, and Puljujarvi. Huberdeau was a weird case where he had a strong rookie year at 19, but then regressed and re-emerged, and the obvious exception to this is Blake Wheeler.

That's all very true. But still, there's no guarantee you get the player for more than 7 years, so its probably preferable to have them from 21-28 instead of 18-25. But every player is obviously different.