RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 4

[ItWasJustified]

This is some major red flags similar to Nail Yakupov.

The problem with Yakapov wasn't that he was a dirtbag. His problem was that he had low hockey IQ.

 

[FlyguyOX]

If I was Philadelphia I'd be content to let Michkov stay over in Russia for a bit. Pretty solid track record of Russian forwards developing well in the KHL, not a particularly noteworthy record of player development in Philadelphia. If in two years the team is in a good spot and Michkov looks ready, then by all means go for the early poach at that point.

I agree, but good to have flexibility now if ska is playing him low minutes

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This is not the first time I've read or heard someone speak badly about this kid's attitude and personality problems. This is some major red flags similar to Nail Yakupov. Hopefully, he gets to fix this before coming to the NHL, or else he's well on his path to becoming a major locker room cancer who'll bounce around from team to team and eventually be out of the league in 5 years.

What?

Nail Yakupov wasn't that good. People act like Yakupov was some literal criminal, and that's why he busted. Maybe he had some character concerns, but they weren't the sole reason he ended up the way he did.

And if MIchkov is some cocky and arrogant "me, me, me" guy, how much does it really matter? If you are the best player on every team you play for, none of that matters. Teams don't get rid of star players because they have personality issues. Heck, the NHL keeps finding spots for players like Evander Kane and Tony DeAngelo that have character issues and they are are good, not star, players. Look throughout every sport and there are superstars that have that type of attitude. They are harder to manage. You'd love for them to be choir boys that are "team, team, team" in everything they do and say, but for the best players you put up with any of that stuff because their talent isn't really replaceable.

 

[FlyguyOX]

What?

Nail Yakupov wasn't that good. People act like Yakupov was some literal criminal, and that's why he busted. Maybe he had some character concerns, but they weren't the sole reason he ended up the way he did.

And if MIchkov is some cocky and arrogant "me, me, me" guy, how much does it really matter? If you are the best player on every team you play for, none of that matters. Teams don't get rid of star players because they have personality issues. Heck, the NHL keeps finding spots for players like Evander Kane and Tony DeAngelo that have character issues and they are are good, not star, players. Look throughout every sport and there are superstars that have that type of attitude. They are harder to manage. You'd love for them to be choir boys that are "team, team, team" in everything they do and say, but for the best players you put up with any of that stuff because their talent isn't really replaceable.

Mackinnon is an a-hole teammate, too

 

[stevo61]

I'm aware of the reasons, but watching Michkov's slide throughout the season was absolutely astonishing how dumb this league can be at times.

I find it utterly offensive and insulting my intelligence for anyone to tell me he isn't a top 2 prospect from the 2023 draft on talent. The debate on talent was him or Bedard. The draft debate between them only ended with his contract and the war. No slight to Bedard, but the debate over which of them will be the better player hasn't ended and probably didn't shift. Both had great seasons, as you'd expect.

So if you then come to the conclusion that he's a clear top 2 talent and there's that gap after them, how does he get picked 7th? The big, small, center, wing stuff becomes irrelevant when the gap in ability is that big. No disrespect to guys like Smith, Reinbacher, Simashev, those guys aren't that hard to acquire. If Michkov turns into the player he's expected to, he's a top 10 player in the world. No questions asked. Top 10 may be underselling it. He could be better than that. You can acquire 2D's or 3D's or 20-40 range centers. Maybe it's not easy, but it's not the same as trying to acquire a cornerstone player that defines your franchise for a generation. There are teams out there that have been in a malaise and stuck in mediocrity exactly because they have not had the chance to acquire those players. Teams like Columbus and Anaheim actually come to mind. I know why they didn't take him, but I think they'll have big regrets as all of this unfolds over the coming years.

You take that shot at Michkov 100/100. If he gets kidnapped or something else insane that people have hypothesized, you live with the consequences. It's worth the chance at a true cornerstone franchise defining player. You need to take risks to acquire the players needed to build a Stanley Cup winning team. It's not by being risk averse. Teams rarely get the opportunity via draft, trade, free agency to acquire players with Michkov's ability.

Another thing I didn't really understand with all these anti-Michkov arguments was that it's not like the guys picked middle of the top 10 or even 2 or 3 are all elite players in the NHL in their D+2 or D+3. I'm a Rangers fan. Kaapo Kakko was drafted #2 in 2019. We've seen four seasons of him in the NHL, and he just hit his career high of 40 points in his D+4. Yeah, you might swear that it'll be different for Fantilli or Carlsson, but often times it isn't. Most of the players that aren't the generational players (McDavid) or those 1 step down from generational (Matthews, Eichel, MacKinnon, etc.) go from like 30 points to 45 to 60, if things go well. Is it really that important to have the ELC on your roster? Because you are most likely getting a very replaceable player those years that Michkov isn't available due to his contract.

Then he's signing his contract the next year, and probably winning ROY scoring 1PPG+. The "will he sign" argument is a red-herring. All the true star Russian players over like the last 25 years have come to the NHL no later than early/mid 20's.

And really, if you are so worried about Michkov getting kidnapped or being drafted into a war or being banned from the NHL, and any of that starts looking like a real possibility, I think the state of the world has devolved into such an unmanageable state that there are bigger problems for everyone to worry about than if Michkov will play for your NHL team next year.

I'm really fascinated to follow the journey of Michkov compared to the guys drafted 2-6. I'm pretty sure this is going to be the ultimate "what if" scenario for those teams, their management, and their fan-bases over the next 20 years.

If Fantilli/Carlsson become PPG do it all centers I dont think they will care too much if Michkov puts up more points. Most people dont deny Michkov's talent but atleast with those 2 the top line center arguemnt is very valid. Im sorry NY has had bad luck with top prospects but I dont think other teams care. Fantilli just matched Kent Johnson's 2 years at Michigan in 1 as a freshman and Johnson already matched Kakko's NHL career high in his rookie season. Kopitar has hit a PPG once in his career but there are many higher scoring wingers youd take after Kopitar if you had the choice.

I think the what if arguement gets more serious at 4

 

[BB88]

If Fantilli/Carlsson become PPG do it all centers I dont think they will care too much if Michkov puts up more points. Most people dont deny Michkov's talent but atleast with those 2 the top line center arguemnt is very valid. Im sorry NY has had bad luck with top prospects but I dont think other teams care. Fantilli just matched Kent Johnson's 2 years at Michigan in 1 as a freshman and Johnson already matched Kakko's NHL career high in his rookie season. Kopitar has hit a PPG once in his career but there are many higher scoring wingers youd take after Kopitar if you had the choice.

I think the what if arguement gets more serious at 4

Franchise C will always carry more value than franchise W.

& people are too much looking into what happened 2 years ago and ignore the development other prospects have had since.
Nobody should be a lock for certain position 2 years before the draft


I hope Flyers don’t try to bring him over too soon anyways, I think 2 years in the KHL would be ideal for him, he’s not even close to being NHL ready today

 

[Snotbubbles]

If Fantilli/Carlsson become PPG do it all centers I dont think they will care too much if Michkov puts up more points. Most people dont deny Michkov's talent but atleast with those 2 the top line center arguemnt is very valid. Im sorry NY has had bad luck with top prospects but I dont think other teams care. Fantilli just matched Kent Johnson's 2 years at Michigan in 1 as a freshman and Johnson already matched Kakko's NHL career high in his rookie season. Kopitar has hit a PPG once in his career but there are many higher scoring wingers youd take after Kopitar if you had the choice.

I think the what if arguement gets more serious at 4

You can say that about all the players draft before Michkov. If Reinbacher/Simashev develops into a stud #1 defenseman, Montreal and Arizona won't care if Michkov scores a bunch of points.

 

[ViD]

Pretty sure a lot of superstar athletes were assholes during their careers. I guess it depends on how it translates - whether they’re just ruthless with their teammates about practices or game performance or they’re just assholes in general - refusing to do what the coach says, skipping practices etc

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If Fantilli/Carlsson become PPG do it all centers I dont think they will care too much if Michkov puts up more points. Most people dont deny Michkov's talent but atleast with those 2 the top line center arguemnt is very valid. Im sorry NY has had bad luck with top prospects but I dont think other teams care. Fantilli just matched Kent Johnson's 2 years at Michigan in 1 as a freshman and Johnson already matched Kakko's NHL career high in his rookie season. Kopitar has hit a PPG once in his career but there are many higher scoring wingers youd take after Kopitar if you had the choice.

I think the what if arguement gets more serious at 4

I think you are making it too broad.

By many count, there were 18 centers this season that were 1PPG or better. We are speaking in hypotheticals, but let's say that they are somewhere in the 10-15 range and Michkov is basically a perennial top 2-3 winger (Kucherov, Pastrnak, etc.), are you really taking a dude like John Tavares or Mika Zibanejad or Steven Stamkos over a Kucherov? Sure, if Fantilli or Carlson or Smith becomes as good as players like MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews level centers are, you can certainly argue that's more value than like a Kucherov or Pastrnak, but really otherwise, it seems like there's a gap that also existed at the draft with this hypothetical.

And I actually think it could be selling Michkov short to be comparing him to players like Kucherov or Pastrnak. Kucherov was a second round pick. Pastrnak late first. They weren't as accomplished pre-draft as Michkov. If people want to say Bedard is generational because of his scoring or accolades before being drafted, and he's comfortably above players like Matthews, MacKinnon, etc at the time of the draft, Michkov was doing the same things when he was playing international tournaments before the war and his play with his club team was also quite historic. So I think we are just talking about a big gap between Michkov and Fantilli/Carlson/Smith, let alone Reinbacher, Simashev, Leonard.

I get what you are trying to suggest, but I think you are basically taking the absolute best case scenario for players that are worse prospects than Michkov and then taking like the middle or slightly below the middle outcome for Michkov. I don't want to say Michkov is guaranteed to be Ovechkin, but I would not be shocked if he's the next Ovechkin level hockey player from Russia. That's what the stats and accolades he's accomplished pre-draft suggest he'd be, although it's fair to say that stuff isn't always as relevant as pure projection of the skills. And clearly none of the other guys after Bedard will be anywhere close to that.

Also, it's not just NY that has had bad luck. If we take the 2019 draft (4 seasons completed, so at the point Michkov could already had completed his rookie NHL year), here are the career highs for each player in points past the 1OA.

Spoiler: 2019 Draft

2 (Kakko): 40-Has had an inconsistent role since year 1, has started to get better, but hasn't really been able to score yet in a big way.

3 (Dach): 38-Now on his second team, has had some middling success, but hasn't hit the stride expected of him yet.

4 (Byram): 24 (never more than 42 games in a season)-Has played pretty well in the NHL when he's on the ice, but he cannot stay healthy. Had to step away from the game for a number of months not too long ago.

5 (Turcotte): 0 (literally only 12 games)-Cannot stay healthy, which has hampered his development. Seems to sustain multiple lengthy injuries per season. Kings have no real place for him anyway.

6 (Seider): 52

7 (Cozens): 68

8 (Broberg): 8 (never more than 46 games in a season)-He hasn't gotten that much opportunity in Edmonton, considering they are not in development mode. When he's played, he's seen middling, at best, results.

9 (Zegras): 65

10 (Podkolzin): 26-Wasn't even available to play his D+1 in North America. It was basically a wasted season as SKA knew he was gone and treated him as such. Wasn't ready for the NHL in his D+2 and probably was rushed. D+3 he started poorly, and had to take a step back down to AHL.

So essentially of the 9 picks past #1 of the top 10, you have 3 guys you can confidently say have exceeded a very replaceable middle of the lineup player you can acquire for very little. And that's essentially my point. It's not impossible to get a guy who is more than a middling player for their D+2 or D+3, but probably more than 50% chance that a top 10 pick past their D+2 or D+3 is not going to be more than a middle of the lineup player.

Here's 2020:

Spoiler: 2020 Draft

2 (Byfield): 22-A combination of injuries, Kings screwing around with his development, him not asserting his suggested potential onto NHL games the way people think he can

3 (Stuetzle): 90

4 (Raymond): 57

5 (Sanderson) 32-Maybe a borderline case. 32 points is decent for a defenseman. Is he truly more than like a 3/4 defenseman yet?

6 (Drysdale) 32-Another borderline case. 32 points in his D+2 is good, but didn't he have a lot of defending problems? Then he had a pretty bad injury that took away his D+3. There are still questions what level of NHL'er he currently is.

7 (Holtz): 4 (28 total games)-A combination of Devils not having much space for him and him not adjusting quick enough to the NHL.

8 (Quinn) 37-I don't know that a lot has went wrong, but it kind of shows that 8OA's don't tend to fare much better through their D+3's. And then you also gotta consider now he's going to miss a bunch of his D+4 with injury.

9 (Rossi): 1 (20 total games)-Had the health problems right after being drafted. That set him back. When he's gotten NHL games with Minnesota, opportunity hasn't been too plentiful and he hasn't played that well.

10 (Perfetti): 30-Kind of similar to Quinn. His development has went fine, except for an injury or two that's held him back, but are you really expecting much more than this from a 10OA through their D+3?

So you got 2 of 9 that have hit 40 points earlier than when Michkov could arrive. If you want to throw in the 1OA from that year, he's only hit 39. You have two borderline cases with defenseman. They've both hit 32 points, but can you truly say either of them are more than 3's or 4's at this point in their NHL career?

I think it's kind of been proven out recently that it's far from a guarantee you are getting a more than replaceable middle of the lineup player in the D+2 and D+3 years. There will likely be a few, but only a few. Which ones? Yeah, it's probably going to be players for the bad teams that give their players tons of ice time, PP time, great situations, playing unimportant games with opportunity to screw up. In a sense, maybe teams like Anaheim and Columbus are actually good situations for that. That may go to your Kent Johnson example, but look even with him, where's the guarantee he does better next season than last? Raymond scored a good deal less from his D+2 to D+3. Drysdale got hurt early in his D+3. Rossi contracted an illness, which has held him back. Dach and Kakko both had injuries that took away significant parts of NHL seasons. I couldn't even count how many injuries Turcotte has had.

When you add it all up, the point is that it's possible for the average player picked 2-10 to outdo being a middle of the lineup player in their D+2 or D+3, but the reality as the numbers prove out is that it's not even half of them that do. That's why from that aspect of the Michkov pick discussion, the safer play is actually Michkov in that regard. Maybe you aren't going to actually get him to your team in his D+2 or D+3, and another player you will and they could be one of the 30-40% of 2-10 picks that do beat being a middle of the lineup player in that part of their career, but odds say they probably won't and Michkov is then coming the next season and we can be quite certain he's going to be an immediate star.

 

[BB88]

I think you are making it too broad.

By many count, there were 18 centers this season that were 1PPG or better. We are speaking in hypotheticals, but let's say that they are somewhere in the 10-15 range and Michkov is basically a perennial top 2-3 winger (Kucherov, Pastrnak, etc.), are you really taking a dude like John Tavares or Mika Zibanejad or Steven Stamkos over a Kucherov? Sure, if Fantilli or Carlson or Smith becomes as good as players like MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews level centers are, you can certainly argue that's more value than like a Kucherov or Pastrnak, but really otherwise, it seems like there's a gap that also existed at the draft with this hypothetical.

And I actually think it could be selling Michkov short to be comparing him to players like Kucherov or Pastrnak. Kucherov was a second round pick. Pastrnak late first. They weren't as accomplished pre-draft as Michkov. If people want to say Bedard is generational because of his scoring or accolades before being drafted, and he's comfortably above players like Matthews, MacKinnon, etc at the time of the draft, Michkov was doing the same things when he was playing international tournaments before the war and his play with his club team was also quite historic. So I think we are just talking about a big gap between Michkov and Fantilli/Carlson/Smith, let alone Reinbacher, Simashev, Leonard.

I get what you are trying to suggest, but I think you are basically taking the absolute best case scenario for players that are worse prospects than Michkov and then taking like the middle or slightly below the middle outcome for Michkov. I don't want to say Michkov is guaranteed to be Ovechkin, but I would not be shocked if he's the next Ovechkin level hockey player from Russia. That's what the stats and accolades he's accomplished pre-draft suggest he'd be, although it's fair to say that stuff isn't always as relevant as pure projection of the skills. And clearly none of the other guys after Bedard will be anywhere close to that.

Also, it's not just NY that has had bad luck. If we take the 2019 draft (4 seasons completed, so at the point Michkov could already had completed his rookie NHL year), here are the career highs for each player in points past the 1OA.

Spoiler: 2019 Draft

2 (Kakko): 40-Has had an inconsistent role since year 1, has started to get better, but hasn't really been able to score yet in a big way.

3 (Dach): 38-Now on his second team, has had some middling success, but hasn't hit the stride expected of him yet.

4 (Byram): 24 (never more than 42 games in a season)-Has played pretty well in the NHL when he's on the ice, but he cannot stay healthy. Had to step away from the game for a number of months not too long ago.

5 (Turcotte): 0 (literally only 12 games)-Cannot stay healthy, which has hampered his development. Seems to sustain multiple lengthy injuries per season. Kings have no real place for him anyway.

6 (Seider): 52

7 (Cozens): 68

8 (Broberg): 8 (never more than 46 games in a season)-He hasn't gotten that much opportunity in Edmonton, considering they are not in development mode. When he's played, he's seen middling, at best, results.

9 (Zegras): 65

10 (Podkolzin): 26-Wasn't even available to play his D+1 in North America. It was basically a wasted season as SKA knew he was gone and treated him as such. Wasn't ready for the NHL in his D+2 and probably was rushed. D+3 he started poorly, and had to take a step back down to AHL.

So essentially of the 9 picks past #1 of the top 10, you have 3 guys you can confidently say have exceeded a very replaceable middle of the lineup player you can acquire for very little. And that's essentially my point. It's not impossible to get a guy who is more than a middling player for their D+2 or D+3, but probably more than 50% chance that a top 10 pick past their D+2 or D+3 is not going to be more than a middle of the lineup player.

Here's 2020:

Spoiler: 2020 Draft

2 (Byfield): 22-A combination of injuries, Kings screwing around with his development, him not asserting his suggested potential onto NHL games the way people think he can

3 (Stuetzle): 90

4 (Raymond): 57

5 (Sanderson) 32-Maybe a borderline case. 32 points is decent for a defenseman. Is he truly more than like a 3/4 defenseman yet?

6 (Drysdale) 32-Another borderline case. 32 points in his D+2 is good, but didn't he have a lot of defending problems? Then he had a pretty bad injury that took away his D+3. There are still questions what level of NHL'er he currently is.

7 (Holtz): 4 (28 total games)-A combination of Devils not having much space for him and him not adjusting quick enough to the NHL.

8 (Quinn) 37-I don't know that a lot has went wrong, but it kind of shows that 8OA's don't tend to fare much better through their D+3's. And then you also gotta consider now he's going to miss a bunch of his D+4 with injury.

9 (Rossi): 1 (20 total games)-Had the health problems right after being drafted. That set him back. When he's gotten NHL games with Minnesota, opportunity hasn't been too plentiful and he hasn't played that well.

10 (Perfetti): 30-Kind of similar to Quinn. His development has went fine, except for an injury or two that's held him back, but are you really expecting much more than this from a 10OA through their D+3?

So you got 2 of 9 that have hit 40 points earlier than when Michkov could arrive. If you want to throw in the 1OA from that year, he's only hit 39. You have two borderline cases with defenseman. They've both hit 32 points, but can you truly say either of them are more than 3's or 4's at this point in their NHL career?

I think it's kind of been proven out recently that it's far from a guarantee you are getting a more than replaceable middle of the lineup player in the D+2 and D+3 years. There will likely be a few, but only a few. Which ones? Yeah, it's probably going to be players for the bad teams that give their players tons of ice time, PP time, great situations, playing unimportant games with opportunity to screw up. In a sense, maybe teams like Anaheim and Columbus are actually good situations for that. That may go to your Kent Johnson example, but look even with him, where's the guarantee he does better next season than last? Raymond scored a good deal less from his D+2 to D+3. Drysdale got hurt early in his D+3. Rossi contracted an illness, which has held him back. Dach and Kakko both had injuries that took away significant parts of NHL seasons. I couldn't even count how many injuries Turcotte has had.

When you add it all up, the point is that it's possible for the average player picked 2-10 to outdo being a middle of the lineup player in their D+2 or D+3, but the reality as the numbers prove out is that it's not even half of them that do. That's why from that aspect of the Michkov pick discussion, the safer play is actually Michkov in that regard. Maybe you aren't going to actually get him to your team in his D+2 or D+3, and another player you will and they could be one of the 30-40% of 2-10 picks that do beat being a middle of the lineup player in that part of their career, but odds say they probably won't and Michkov is then coming the next season and we can be quite certain he's going to be an immediate star.

Why do you think Fantilli is a worse prospect than Michkov? Fantilli is Eichel level prospect and no his ceiling isn’t just ppg but Mackinnon level player.

& you’re not landing Mackinnon in a trade for any similar aged winger in this league period

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Why do you think Fantilli is a worse prospect than Michkov? Fantilli is Eichel level prospect and no his ceiling isn’t just ppg but Mackinnon level player.

& you’re not landing Mackinnon in a trade for any similar aged winger in this league period

I don't think Fantilli is an Eichel level prospect. I think people have grouped them together because they are roughly the same size/good skaters, have a bunch of basic similarities (yet the details are quite different), and played their draft season in NCAA and succeeded as late-birthdays. I'll leave it at that to not make this point too long.

As for Fantilli and Michkov, Fantilli is a very good prospect but we've kind of seen his flaws show up at times. He didn't have a good World Juniors. He wasn't good the prior WJC18's. His first USHL season wasn't that good. There are people that think he has weak hockey sense. There are also questions if he truly has NHL level elite offense to be a dude that you turn to and ask to make a play when you are down late in a game and need a goal.

With Michkov, what are the true questions about his hockey game, not the other stuff? Look at his EP page, like 75% of the seasons or teams listed there, he's breaking some sort of record. He puts up absolute video game numbers we've never seen before (in a lot of cases). No one (except the odd really hot-take) seems to doubt that he has otherworldly scoring instincts, hockey sense and puck skills. And maybe most importantly, the dude has literally scored goals at unprecedented rates since there are seasons on his EP page. You can talk about Fantilli being a two-way center, this or that, he'll probably be a pretty good offensive player, he skates well. That's all cool. I'm sure he'll be a good NHL player and maybe very good, but if Michkov continues scoring goals at the rate he has once he gets to the NHL, he'll become the best goal-scorer in the world. Fantilli's ceiling simply doesn't come close to that. Even if he's Jack Eichel, Jack Eichel's best season he was maybe the 3rd best player in hockey. Since then he's a borderline top 10 center, at best.

Same you could probably say for Bedard's potential as Michkov's, but I guess that's the point. When you have such a lengthy and historic record at lower levels of doing the most important thing in hockey (putting the puck in the net), that trumps all the dependable elements you think Fantilli and Carlsson might bring.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You can say that about all the players draft before Michkov. If Reinbacher/Simashev develops into a stud #1 defenseman, Montreal and Arizona won't care if Michkov scores a bunch of points.

If hypothetically Reinbacher is Noah Dobson and Simashev is Mattias Samuelsson, you sure as hell will care if Mickov is Nikita Kucherov (or if he truly hits his ceiling the yearly Rocket Richard favorite).

 

[stevo61]

I think you are making it too broad.

By many count, there were 18 centers this season that were 1PPG or better. We are speaking in hypotheticals, but let's say that they are somewhere in the 10-15 range and Michkov is basically a perennial top 2-3 winger (Kucherov, Pastrnak, etc.), are you really taking a dude like John Tavares or Mika Zibanejad or Steven Stamkos over a Kucherov? Sure, if Fantilli or Carlson or Smith becomes as good as players like MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews level centers are, you can certainly argue that's more value than like a Kucherov or Pastrnak, but really otherwise, it seems like there's a gap that also existed at the draft with this hypothetical.

And I actually think it could be selling Michkov short to be comparing him to players like Kucherov or Pastrnak. Kucherov was a second round pick. Pastrnak late first. They weren't as accomplished pre-draft as Michkov. If people want to say Bedard is generational because of his scoring or accolades before being drafted, and he's comfortably above players like Matthews, MacKinnon, etc at the time of the draft, Michkov was doing the same things when he was playing international tournaments before the war and his play with his club team was also quite historic. So I think we are just talking about a big gap between Michkov and Fantilli/Carlson/Smith, let alone Reinbacher, Simashev, Leonard.

I get what you are trying to suggest, but I think you are basically taking the absolute best case scenario for players that are worse prospects than Michkov and then taking like the middle or slightly below the middle outcome for Michkov. I don't want to say Michkov is guaranteed to be Ovechkin, but I would not be shocked if he's the next Ovechkin level hockey player from Russia. That's what the stats and accolades he's accomplished pre-draft suggest he'd be, although it's fair to say that stuff isn't always as relevant as pure projection of the skills. And clearly none of the other guys after Bedard will be anywhere close to that.

Also, it's not just NY that has had bad luck. If we take the 2019 draft (4 seasons completed, so at the point Michkov could already had completed his rookie NHL year), here are the career highs for each player in points past the 1OA.

Spoiler: 2019 Draft

2 (Kakko): 40-Has had an inconsistent role since year 1, has started to get better, but hasn't really been able to score yet in a big way.

3 (Dach): 38-Now on his second team, has had some middling success, but hasn't hit the stride expected of him yet.

4 (Byram): 24 (never more than 42 games in a season)-Has played pretty well in the NHL when he's on the ice, but he cannot stay healthy. Had to step away from the game for a number of months not too long ago.

5 (Turcotte): 0 (literally only 12 games)-Cannot stay healthy, which has hampered his development. Seems to sustain multiple lengthy injuries per season. Kings have no real place for him anyway.

6 (Seider): 52

7 (Cozens): 68

8 (Broberg): 8 (never more than 46 games in a season)-He hasn't gotten that much opportunity in Edmonton, considering they are not in development mode. When he's played, he's seen middling, at best, results.

9 (Zegras): 65

10 (Podkolzin): 26-Wasn't even available to play his D+1 in North America. It was basically a wasted season as SKA knew he was gone and treated him as such. Wasn't ready for the NHL in his D+2 and probably was rushed. D+3 he started poorly, and had to take a step back down to AHL.

So essentially of the 9 picks past #1 of the top 10, you have 3 guys you can confidently say have exceeded a very replaceable middle of the lineup player you can acquire for very little. And that's essentially my point. It's not impossible to get a guy who is more than a middling player for their D+2 or D+3, but probably more than 50% chance that a top 10 pick past their D+2 or D+3 is not going to be more than a middle of the lineup player.

Here's 2020:

Spoiler: 2020 Draft

2 (Byfield): 22-A combination of injuries, Kings screwing around with his development, him not asserting his suggested potential onto NHL games the way people think he can

3 (Stuetzle): 90

4 (Raymond): 57

5 (Sanderson) 32-Maybe a borderline case. 32 points is decent for a defenseman. Is he truly more than like a 3/4 defenseman yet?

6 (Drysdale) 32-Another borderline case. 32 points in his D+2 is good, but didn't he have a lot of defending problems? Then he had a pretty bad injury that took away his D+3. There are still questions what level of NHL'er he currently is.

7 (Holtz): 4 (28 total games)-A combination of Devils not having much space for him and him not adjusting quick enough to the NHL.

8 (Quinn) 37-I don't know that a lot has went wrong, but it kind of shows that 8OA's don't tend to fare much better through their D+3's. And then you also gotta consider now he's going to miss a bunch of his D+4 with injury.

9 (Rossi): 1 (20 total games)-Had the health problems right after being drafted. That set him back. When he's gotten NHL games with Minnesota, opportunity hasn't been too plentiful and he hasn't played that well.

10 (Perfetti): 30-Kind of similar to Quinn. His development has went fine, except for an injury or two that's held him back, but are you really expecting much more than this from a 10OA through their D+3?

So you got 2 of 9 that have hit 40 points earlier than when Michkov could arrive. If you want to throw in the 1OA from that year, he's only hit 39. You have two borderline cases with defenseman. They've both hit 32 points, but can you truly say either of them are more than 3's or 4's at this point in their NHL career?

I think it's kind of been proven out recently that it's far from a guarantee you are getting a more than replaceable middle of the lineup player in the D+2 and D+3 years. There will likely be a few, but only a few. Which ones? Yeah, it's probably going to be players for the bad teams that give their players tons of ice time, PP time, great situations, playing unimportant games with opportunity to screw up. In a sense, maybe teams like Anaheim and Columbus are actually good situations for that. That may go to your Kent Johnson example, but look even with him, where's the guarantee he does better next season than last? Raymond scored a good deal less from his D+2 to D+3. Drysdale got hurt early in his D+3. Rossi contracted an illness, which has held him back. Dach and Kakko both had injuries that took away significant parts of NHL seasons. I couldn't even count how many injuries Turcotte has had.

When you add it all up, the point is that it's possible for the average player picked 2-10 to outdo being a middle of the lineup player in their D+2 or D+3, but the reality as the numbers prove out is that it's not even half of them that do. That's why from that aspect of the Michkov pick discussion, the safer play is actually Michkov in that regard. Maybe you aren't going to actually get him to your team in his D+2 or D+3, and another player you will and they could be one of the 30-40% of 2-10 picks that do beat being a middle of the lineup player in that part of their career, but odds say they probably won't and Michkov is then coming the next season and we can be quite certain he's going to be an immediate star.

I dont doubt for a second Michkov will be a major point producer but I think that gap shrinks in the playoffs where all of Fantilli/Carlsson's other traits become more valuable. I wouldnt have been sad with Michkov but atleast for Anaheim/Columbus its easy to see why they went the way they did

 

[BB88]

I don't think Fantilli is an Eichel level prospect. I think people have grouped them together because they are roughly the same size/good skaters, have a bunch of basic similarities (yet the details are quite different), and played their draft season in NCAA and succeeded as late-birthdays. I'll leave it at that to not make this point too long.

As for Fantilli and Michkov, Fantilli is a very good prospect but we've kind of seen his flaws show up at times. He didn't have a good World Juniors. He wasn't good the prior WJC18's. His first USHL season wasn't that good. There are people that think he has weak hockey sense. There are also questions if he truly has NHL level elite offense to be a dude that you turn to and ask to make a play when you are down late in a game and need a goal.

With Michkov, what are the true questions about his hockey game, not the other stuff? Look at his EP page, like 75% of the seasons or teams listed there, he's breaking some sort of record. He puts up absolute video game numbers we've never seen before (in a lot of cases). No one (except the odd really hot-take) seems to doubt that he has otherworldly scoring instincts, hockey sense and puck skills. And maybe most importantly, the dude has literally scored goals at unprecedented rates since there are seasons on his EP page. You can talk about Fantilli being a two-way center, this or that, he'll probably be a pretty good offensive player, he skates well. That's all cool. I'm sure he'll be a good NHL player and maybe very good, but if Michkov continues scoring goals at the rate he has once he gets to the NHL, he'll become the best goal-scorer in the world. Fantilli's ceiling simply doesn't come close to that. Even if he's Jack Eichel, Jack Eichel's best season he was maybe the 3rd best player in hockey. Since then he's a borderline top 10 center, at best.

Same you could probably say for Bedard's potential as Michkov's, but I guess that's the point. When you have such a lengthy and historic record at lower levels of doing the most important thing in hockey (putting the puck in the net), that trumps all the dependable elements you think Fantilli and Carlsson might bring.

Jack Eichel
Jack Hughes
Beniers
Svechnikov
Are examples who had average to okay WJC/WC’s.

People love to overreact to short tournaments.

Then you have players like Pulju, Laine, Slafskovsky European prospects who feasted in tourneys like that.
Again people love to overvalue short tournaments like that.

Sure Michkov had the best KHL season by draft prospect but what’s the competition? How many legit franchise prospects have KHL developed (draft day)?
Zero?
The previous record was held by Tarasenko, sure in his prime a great player but never a true franchise tier player. Never at the Rantanen/Kucherov/Marner/Pasta tier for wingers in this league.

& Michkovs skating hasn’t developed as much as I’d hoped, he lacks separation speed. In Europe it doesn’t stop you from scoring but it would at the NHL level. His defensive game needs a lot of work as well.
So he’s a smaller player who’s not even good defensively and who lacks separation speed, from that it’s a long way to becoming Kucherov at the NHL level. Still would have easily taken him at 4 but not in the top3.

Fantilli on the other hand put up Eichel like numbers in the NCAA, his physical tools are about as good as you could hope from a draft prospect, his skating is elite, he has a shot that will constantly make him a threat to score.
People question his IQ but by reading and listening him his an absolute pro and Bedard like driven to become the best player possible.
The old saying is hard work beats talent, but when talent has the hard work mentality it’s damm tough to beat.


Fact is franchise C’s mean more to winning than franchise W’s.
Let’s agree that Kucherov is the best winger in the game and I’d take McDavid/Drai/Mackinnon types always 1st when building a team.

 

[Kiirin]

What?

Nail Yakupov wasn't that good. People act like Yakupov was some literal criminal, and that's why he busted. Maybe he had some character concerns, but they weren't the sole reason he ended up the way he did.

And if MIchkov is some cocky and arrogant "me, me, me" guy, how much does it really matter? If you are the best player on every team you play for, none of that matters. Teams don't get rid of star players because they have personality issues. Heck, the NHL keeps finding spots for players like Evander Kane and Tony DeAngelo that have character issues and they are are good, not star, players. Look throughout every sport and there are superstars that have that type of attitude. They are harder to manage. You'd love for them to be choir boys that are "team, team, team" in everything they do and say, but for the best players you put up with any of that stuff because their talent isn't really replaceable.

There's a difference between having some cockiness and arrogance like Brad Marchand and being a serious locker room cancer teams won't put up with. Things like SKA sending Michkov away to Sochi because they don't want to deal with him anymore, Washington scouts being disgusted with his disrespect when meeting him, Columbus not even bothering to book an interview, Montreal and San Jose implicitly speaking about this kid not fitting with their culture and how there are aspects about him they don't like, how he talks to his teammates, how he talks to the coaches and how he behaves off the ice is really concerning. You even see it all the time with teams like Nashville buying out the contract of Duchene despite being their best forward for the past 4 years, Winnipeg stripping Wheeler of captaincy then buying out his contract a year later, Laine as a big-time 30 to 40 goal scorer in the league being traded away and Subban a fan-favorite in Montreal traded for a 3 year older but better leader in Weber. Again wish him the best of luck in Philly but if you thought the relationship between Torts and PLD was bad, wait till he comes to North America with this attitude.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Jack Eichel
Jack Hughes
Beniers
Svechnikov
Are examples who had average to okay WJC/WC’s.

People love to overreact to short tournaments.

Then you have players like Pulju, Laine, Slafskovsky European prospects who feasted in tourneys like that.
Again people love to overvalue short tournaments like that.

Sure Michkov had the best KHL season by draft prospect but what’s the competition? How many legit franchise prospects have KHL developed (draft day)?
Zero?
The previous record was held by Tarasenko, sure in his prime a great player but never a true franchise tier player. Never at the Rantanen/Kucherov/Marner/Pasta tier for wingers in this league.

& Michkovs skating hasn’t developed as much as I’d hoped, he lacks separation speed. In Europe it doesn’t stop you from scoring but it would at the NHL level. His defensive game needs a lot of work as well.
So he’s a smaller player who’s not even good defensively and who lacks separation speed, from that it’s a long way to becoming Kucherov at the NHL level. Still would have easily taken him at 4 but not in the top3.

Fantilli on the other hand put up Eichel like numbers in the NCAA, his physical tools are about as good as you could hope from a draft prospect, his skating is elite, he has a shot that will constantly make him a threat to score.
People question his IQ but by reading and listening him his an absolute pro and Bedard like driven to become the best player possible.
The old saying is hard work beats talent, but when talent has the hard work mentality it’s damm tough to beat.


Fact is franchise C’s mean more to winning than franchise W’s.
Let’s agree that Kucherov is the best winger in the game and I’d take McDavid/Drai/Mackinnon types always 1st when building a team.

Yeah those horrible skating wings like J-Rob and Stone are horrible. Complete bums. If only Michkov could skate as well as them

 

[mahomes95]

Is it possible for him to be as good as Bedard.

 

[Zine]

Jack Eichel
Jack Hughes
Beniers
Svechnikov
Are examples who had average to okay WJC/WC’s.

People love to overreact to short tournaments.

Then you have players like Pulju, Laine, Slafskovsky European prospects who feasted in tourneys like that.
Again people love to overvalue short tournaments like that.

Sure Michkov had the best KHL season by draft prospect but what’s the competition? How many legit franchise prospects have KHL developed (draft day)?
Zero?
The previous record was held by Tarasenko, sure in his prime a great player but never a true franchise tier player. Never at the Rantanen/Kucherov/Marner/Pasta tier for wingers in this league.

& Michkovs skating hasn’t developed as much as I’d hoped, he lacks separation speed. In Europe it doesn’t stop you from scoring but it would at the NHL level. His defensive game needs a lot of work as well.
So he’s a smaller player who’s not even good defensively and who lacks separation speed, from that it’s a long way to becoming Kucherov at the NHL level. Still would have easily taken him at 4 but not in the top3.

Fantilli on the other hand put up Eichel like numbers in the NCAA, his physical tools are about as good as you could hope from a draft prospect, his skating is elite, he has a shot that will constantly make him a threat to score.
People question his IQ but by reading and listening him his an absolute pro and Bedard like driven to become the best player possible.
The old saying is hard work beats talent, but when talent has the hard work mentality it’s damm tough to beat.


Fact is franchise C’s mean more to winning than franchise W’s.
Let’s agree that Kucherov is the best winger in the game and I’d take McDavid/Drai/Mackinnon types always 1st when building a team.

Riiiiight.
Michkov's style of play is better suited for the NHL, actually. He's a better player in traffic than in open ice.
For sure his north-south skating isnt the greatest, but he creates separation for himself via his insane lateral movement and smarts. Hockey sense. edgework, flexibility and body positioning are the keys to his skating.

He creates separation via quickness and misdirection. His lateral speed, ability to find open spaces in tight and allude defensemen in close is uncanny. This will serve him very well in the NHL.
His skating is somewhat quasi-Kaprizov like.

 

[Bleak]

There's a difference between having some cockiness and arrogance like Brad Marchand and being a serious locker room cancer teams won't put up with. Things like SKA sending Michkov away to Sochi because they don't want to deal with him anymore, Washington scouts being disgusted with his disrespect when meeting him, Columbus not even bothering to book an interview, Montreal and San Jose implicitly speaking about this kid not fitting with their culture and how there are aspects about him they don't like, how he talks to his teammates, how he talks to the coaches and how he behaves off the ice is really concerning. You even see it all the time with teams like Nashville buying out the contract of Duchene despite being their best forward for the past 4 years, Winnipeg stripping Wheeler of captaincy then buying out his contract a year later, Laine as a big-time 30 to 40 goal scorer in the league being traded away and Subban a fan-favorite in Montreal traded for a 3 year older but better leader in Weber. Again wish him the best of luck in Philly but if you thought the relationship between Torts and PLD was bad, wait till he comes to North America with this attitude.

These are pretty implications without a source other than hearsay. I'm quite astonished that people are buying the "bad teammate" narrative based off of hearsay. I am sure, since he did bank when he young, he is cocky but why wouldn't you be with the cash and the skills to back it up?

 

[Kiirin]

These are pretty implications without a source other than hearsay. I'm quite astonished that people are buying the "bad teammate" narrative based off of hearsay. I am sure, since he did bank when he young, he is cocky but why wouldn't you be with the cash and the skills to back it up?

Co-director of amateur scouting Nick Bobrov when asked why the Habs opted to draft Reinbacher over Michkov : "We're building a culture; we want certain things that permeate that culture as we keep building this. We felt that this player embodies the type of culture that Jeff, Kent, Marty and the coaching staff are trying to build, and that was not a trivial matter to us. So, culture was an important word."

Lapointe and Bobrov: Culture an important factor at this year's Draft | Montréal Canadiens

The Habs' lead scouts reflected on a busy two days in Tennessee

www.nhl.com

Washington Capitals scout Andrei Nikolishin concerning Matvei Michkov:
"To me, he's first or second in skill [in the draft]. But when it comes to character, to attitude to his teammates, coaching staff, management, fans - the man has now fallen very low in the eyes of all the scouts, all the managers. It has nothing to do with the tragedy. Information about the player is collected - how he talks to his partners, how he talks to the coaches, how he behaves off the ice. And that's where it gets rough for Matvey. There are a lot of nuances that could be revealed. I can show you the correspondence when I wanted to meet with him and, as a scout, ask him some questions and do an interview, how he responds. I've never seen such disrespect in my life for other people"

Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekäläinen when asked if they met with Michkov or whether were planning on having a meeting with him before the draft, his response? : a resounding no


Anonymous SKA Petersburg teammate: "He doesn't listen to anything the veterans tell him, he doesn't listen to the coaches, he doesn't hesitate to laugh at them and send them away. He only does what he wants. We really tried to give him a chance and understand him, but we realized he's just a piece of shit."

Sharks GM Mike Grier why he didn't choose Michkov with the 4th pick :


You can choose to believe what you want but by connecting the dots, it's clear his attitude and major character problems are the reasons why he fell to #7, and it had little to do with his 2026 contract in Russia.

 

[NatusVincere]

This is not the first time I've read or heard someone speak badly about this kid's attitude and personality problems. This is some major red flags similar to Nail Yakupov. Hopefully, he gets to fix this before coming to the NHL, or else he's well on his path to becoming a major locker room cancer who'll bounce around from team to team and eventually be out of the league in 5 years.

Yakupov was/is a very nice guy. I have no idea why he is even talked about here (you got 4 likes for free here). As far as I know Edmonton has never had problems with his attitude.

And MM will never bounced around… Philly and the Flyers will be proud about the best player on earth playing for them.

Co-director of amateur scouting Nick Bobrov when asked why the Habs opted to draft Reinbacher over Michkov : "We're building a culture; we want certain things that permeate that culture as we keep building this. We felt that this player embodies the type of culture that Jeff, Kent, Marty and the coaching staff are trying to build, and that was not a trivial matter to us. So, culture was an important word."

Lapointe and Bobrov: Culture an important factor at this year's Draft | Montréal Canadiens

The Habs' lead scouts reflected on a busy two days in Tennessee

www.nhl.com

Washington Capitals scout Andrei Nikolishin concerning Matvei Michkov:
"To me, he's first or second in skill [in the draft]. But when it comes to character, to attitude to his teammates, coaching staff, management, fans - the man has now fallen very low in the eyes of all the scouts, all the managers. It has nothing to do with the tragedy. Information about the player is collected - how he talks to his partners, how he talks to the coaches, how he behaves off the ice. And that's where it gets rough for Matvey. There are a lot of nuances that could be revealed. I can show you the correspondence when I wanted to meet with him and, as a scout, ask him some questions and do an interview, how he responds. I've never seen such disrespect in my life for other people"

Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekäläinen when asked if they met with Michkov or whether were planning on having a meeting with him before the draft, his response? : a resounding no


Anonymous SKA Petersburg teammate: "He doesn't listen to anything the veterans tell him, he doesn't listen to the coaches, he doesn't hesitate to laugh at them and send them away. He only does what he wants. We really tried to give him a chance and understand him, but we realized he's just a piece of shit."

Sharks GM Mark Grier why he didn't choose Michkov with the 4th pick :


You can choose to believe what you want but by connecting the dots, it's clear his attitude and major character problems are the reasons why he fell to #7, and it had little to do with his 2026 contract in Russia.

Besides the bitch talk of some nonames and the Caps, after Ovi is done, will vanish back into irrelevance where they came from, here is what his Sochi coach had to say about him:

I am satisfied with his game, it is clear that Matvei plays with dignity, shows good hockey, he has the right attitude... He is blocking shots… his leadership qualities are visible, which help us in recent games.

 

[Fantomas]

This is some major red flags similar to Nail Yakupov.

Name one similarity to Yakupov. Some people just talking out their rear end. And yes, I mean you.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Name one similarity to Yakupov. Some people just talking out their rear end. And yes, I mean you.

Yakupov did not interview well, so much so that teams also had him on their do not draft lists.

I think, if the talent is as great as we say it is, the personality issues can be overcome.

 

[NatusVincere]

Yakupov did not interview well, so much so that teams also had him on their do not draft lists.

I think, if the talent is as great as we say it is, the personality issues can be overcome.

As far as I know he was the 1st OA?! What’s your point?

 

[Frank Drebin]

As far as I know he was the 1st OA?! What’s your point?

My point was to answer the question, name one similarity between Michkov and yakupov.

Yakupov interviewed terribly with the leafs and was a do not draft