RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 4
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Eye of Ra
Grandmaster General of the International boards
Czech league is much stronger than Swedish league. But best leagues are NLA, KHL and Liiga in Europe.
i'm not a huge prospect guy, i like checking in as the draft approaches, so i'm going off what i've seen written a lot about this being a loaded draft which i assume to be true. when it comes to a kid like this i haven't seen it brought up as a factor but i'd think it would to some degree. obviously the biggest thing is how much teams are able to learn about his interest in coming over. no matter how you look at it, there is significantly more risk with him than most prospects. if teams see this first round as truly loaded with potential impact players, at what point does the risk/reward with him overcome the projected value of another highly valued prospect albeit not considered the same ceiling?
for example say he's on the board for x team at 13 and so is say andrew cristall - i use him since he's a personal favorite and basically the only guy i've seen much of. cristall could well turn into a claude giroux and be in your org in a year or 2 (assume said team is confident of this). do you take that, or roll the dice on a guy who has a chance to be one of the top goal scorers in the game - but also is min 3 years away and carries at least some real risk he never comes over?
for example say he's on the board for x team at 13 and so is say andrew cristall - i use him since he's a personal favorite and basically the only guy i've seen much of. cristall could well turn into a claude giroux and be in your org in a year or 2 (assume said team is confident of this). do you take that, or roll the dice on a guy who has a chance to be one of the top goal scorers in the game - but also is min 3 years away and carries at least some real risk he never comes over?
MichaelFarrell
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You’re talking risk-reward about a player that had 20 points in 27 KHL games. There is almost no player in this draft or any draft who would’ve been able to do that at 18. The reward is so high. This is a player that has truly elite offensive tools.
Most of the players that will be selected after the top 3 are going to need time. Will Smith, Zach Benson, Sale, Cristall, etc are all going to take pretty much a minimum of 2 years to get into the NHL. What’s one more year?
The Russian factor is overblown. Top drafted Russian prospects playing in Russia pretty much always sign. Nichushkin, Rubtsov, Korshkov, Samsonov, Kostin, Kravtsov, Denisenko, Romanov, Podkolzin, etc all singed NHL deals.
Michkov will for sure sign and 3 years of development is just fine for a player of his caliber. It’s not likely a lot of the guys that could be taken before him will be absolutely lights out 2-3 years post draft.
It looks like Chibrikov is coming. Maybe Svechkov... They all come sooner or later.
Matvei Michkov 2023 NHL Draft Profile - Philadelphia Flyers #7 Pick - The Win Column
2023 NHL Draft prospect profile for Matvei Michkov, including stats, strengths, weaknesses, and comparable players.
thewincolumn.ca
Another scout report on Michkov which I mostly agree with. Save the part he's not as good as Bedard. You simply can't say anything about it right now, but oh well you gotta get used that NA fans and experts will always think it this way and not just about Bedard/Michkov situation...
i get he's an outstanding prospect, that's not what i was getting at though. like say you know he's another ovechkin or crosby, but it's 50/50 you ever get him to come over and it'll be a minimum of 3 years before it might be possible versus a claude giroux who can make an impact in your lineup beginning the following year. this is all hypothetical in terms of player samples, but in terms of value yes ovi or crosby are superior, but are they so much so you sacrifice an elite player like giroux for a roll of the dice - and a big part of this to consider is front office shelf life.
i don't know exactly how much time any one player will take, that can surprise in both directions by case. i'm not saying this kid isn't worth taking, it's more a question of, if it really is a loaded draft that might look like an 03...if you're a rebuilding team and in 2-3 years there are teams that were in the same place beginning to take flight led by their first pick in this year, how do you look if there's still no clarity on when your pick even shows up? again, all purely hypothetical, i don't know how much information nhl teams will have which could render this completely moot.
i would agree with the russian factor being overblown generally. i am curious how recent developments impact this though - i don't want to get anywhere near the politics of it, but i think its fair to say things are different now than they have been, and that could be a factor for some.
I dont understand where this risk of him not coming over is coming from. I can't think of a single russian top prospect who didnt eventually cross the pond. There are probably more players drafted out of the ncaa who didnt sign with the team who drafted them.
I also dont see a problem with him being signed for another 3 season. Let him develop properly. Most draft picks dont make an impact for the 2-3 seasons after the draft anyway.
I also dont understand the reasoning that Fantilli and Carlsson had historic seasons, but so did Michkov.
He is still no 2 in my opinion.
Sorry for my english
I also dont see a problem with him being signed for another 3 season. Let him develop properly. Most draft picks dont make an impact for the 2-3 seasons after the draft anyway.
I also dont understand the reasoning that Fantilli and Carlsson had historic seasons, but so did Michkov.
He is still no 2 in my opinion.
Sorry for my english
GermanSpitfire
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Only one that springs to mind is Sergei Mozyakin.
He was passed over in the NHL draft twice, then drafted by Columbus in the 9th round who held his rights foe Damn near 20 years. He went onto be one of the most prolific scores the KHL has ever seen. He could have come over to the NHL, and probably would have seen some success, and Columbus tried their hardest to convince him - But he decided to stay in Russia, where he was comfortable.
It’s the only example I can think of.
Mozyakin always kept saying he wasn't interested in the NHL, though, while Michkov keeps saying playing in the NHL is his dream.
Acallabeth
Post approved by Ovechkin
Hell yes! Players on the level of AO and Crosby can give you like a dozen elite or franchise player seasons and several more 1st liner seasons, while 'Giroux' (no knock, love the player) is unlikely to provide the peak as high or last as a top player as long. I say pick the better player and work on the risks: respect his contract, establish a relationship with the player (and perhaps the club as well), build the roster the way he will have decent team when he comes over, offer him advice on areas of improvement.
The 50/50 idea overestimates the risks greatly too: nothing points to Michkov not coming over eventually, more that his team will have to wait several years for him to produce in the NHL. Well, guess what? So had the Devils with Jack Hughes, kekeke (except they were paying him).
Acallabeth
Post approved by Ovechkin
If Mozyakin was born in 1996, not 1981, he would be an NHL star. His entire prime happened in the era when the league didn't appreciate small finesse wingers as much as they do today.
Zine
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Mozyakin was also a late developer. He never played on junior national teams and wasn't 'elite' until around 25-26 years old.
He did play a handful of games in the QMJHL in 1999, so the interest in the NHL had to have been there in his younger years.
He did play a handful of games in the QMJHL in 1999, so the interest in the NHL had to have been there in his younger years.
WarriorofTime
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That is pretty clearly wrong. Even post-invasion, Russians are coming. The invasion not going as well as Putin hoped means the odds of further expanding war to create a situation where they stop coming over is basically nill. There is some risk that if he doesn't thrive early on and gets put in like a Lafreniere role that he may just bolt after his ELC, but the risk of him never coming over is basically nill. Everyone comes over and at least gives it a shot, even if they end up leaving pretty quickly.
WarriorofTime
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Mozyakin and another guy that comes to mind, Denis Zaripov (6 All-Star teams, 2X Post-Season 1st Team All-Star, 1 Golden Stick, 5 Gagarin Cups), were late bloomers (never played for Russia at youth levels) and then basically hit their prime at the time the KHL was coming about at the end of a late oil boom when oligarchs were throwing around big money on essentially vanity project hockey teams. That was the same time Jaromir Jagr got poached. It was a different era compared to now.
Doug Prishpreed
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The "Russian factor" isn't a worry that they won't come over to NA -- it's the fact that you have zero say in their development for three years, which is a massively huge downside when you draft a player.
No one in the NHL are worried about most of these guys never coming over
BB88
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KHL is the best place for Michkovs development though.
BB88
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There’d be huge pressure in NA to play Michkov in the NHL too soon.
Doubt any NHL would have the nerves to allow him to mature 2 years in the AHL
He’s going to need anyways few years to be NHL impact ready, might as well allow him to be in the KHL and build up his body
fair, i mean i don't look at it as a right / wrong answer, just a different way to think about it. the bigger thing for me in considering his value is how much known information you have on draft day about his timeline and intentions, and what you value alternatives as. as far as probability i'm not saying it's 50/50, i'm just using that to make it simple...i have no actual idea what it is. i'd think it's higher than that, but i've got zero information that for why other than historically it almost certainly has been. but again, things are different at the moment, and just assuming that makes no difference is a dangerous game.
i never said it was right, the entire thing is hypothetical, just used a number that makes it simple. it's all just trying to think a little outside the box. there's no implied right or wrong answer, it's basically mapping out a game theory scenario, can sub in any alternative prospect / projection / probability of reaching that versus however you view michkov value / projection / probability of him coming over and reaching it with the unknown amount of additional time until he does. the purpose was ultimately to see how other people would approach, and if presenting his case in a different way changed where anyone sees him going / would pick him were they in the gm seat.
There is no any doubts he will come to NHL, doubts are when he's gonna come. To me it's kinda stupid to pass on a player of his talent just because he'll come in 3 or 4 years and not in one or two. But who knows what NHL teams' bosses think...
BB88
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I don’t think it ’s the contract, it shouldn’t be.
Rather the unkown of what's going on in the Europe+ Michkov having 3 years on his contract
Most people don't realize that you're almost certainly getting a future superstar with Michkov. This in bold is especially pertinent; I said this to a lot people, and they just disregard that fact because it doesn't fit their views. On top of that, when Michkov actually comes to NA, I'm expecting him to have a Kaprizov-level impact. Can you say that about Smith, Benson, Dvorsky and others? No way.
Doug Prishpreed
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GMs prefer control over development and that’s not an opinion. KHL may be the best option but the GM would prefer to make that decision every time.
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