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RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 4

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Kshahdoo said:
Yeah, but I think 2 years before RFA gives him better chance to earn bigger contract.
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Definitely an interesting choice. Minnesota only got one cheap ELC year out of Kaprizov but he was still able to cash in (5 x 9 mil) after that. The risk might be if Michkov were to have an injury during that one year, he might not have as much leverage. And he wouldn't have the games played required to have offer sheet rights.
 
Albatros said:
He has already signed until 2026 though, so the question is only whether he'll sign his NHL ELC 2026 to 2029 or 2027 to 2029. And 2026 to 2027 he'll get more in Russia.
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If Michkov had arrived in 2023 with success

2023-24 930 000$
2024-25 930 000$
2025-26 930 000$

2026-27 9 000 000$
2027-28 9 000 000$
2028-29 9 000 000$

Total : 30 000 000$

So his contract in the KHL would have to rise to the level of that of a star in the NHL. It's very far from being the case.
 
Dirtyf1ghter said:
If Michkov had arrived in 2023 with success

2023-24 930 000$
2024-25 930 000$
2025-26 930 000$

2026-27 9 000 000$
2027-28 9 000 000$
2028-29 9 000 000$

Total : 30 000 000$

So his contract in the KHL would have to rise to the level of that of a star in the NHL. It's very far from being the case.
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And if my aunt... Where we're at now is all about 2026/27 as Michkov is going to finish his ELC in 2029 either way (or 2028 if his team agrees to burn a year).
 
Kshahdoo said:
There are A bonuses for rookies which are pretty big, but overall ELC money can be significantly less than a KHL contract.
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He’s getting the max elc contract+ all the off ice contracts if he’s as good as you say he is.

Also the better your CV on elc is the more money you make on your longterm deal.
Again if he’s as good as you think he could be looking at 110-120M post elc as long as he’s proven himself at the NHL level

KHL isn’t going to match his salary and he’ll never get to play the competition in the KHL that he could in the NHL.
Some players are actually driven
 
So if his ELC expires at the same time regardless, it probably makes sense to play one more year in the KHL after his current deal so that he can make good KHL money (probably $4-$5 million) for that year instead of NHL ELC money.
 
Dirtyf1ghter said:
Kaprizov was selected in the 5th round. His NHL success was as uncertain as Gusev's.

Michkov's success is very likely.
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You are missing my point. Kaprizov came over later, starred from day one, and cashed in as soon as elc ended. If mitchkov does same he won’t miss out financially for arriving in 2026 versus earlier.
 
Blueston said:
You are missing my point. Kaprizov came over later, starred from day one, and cashed in as soon as elc ended. If mitchkov does same he won’t miss out financially for arriving in 2026 versus earlier.
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Yes, but he cashed in at 24, not at 21-22, like his peers. In 2021 he earned ~1M, Greenway 2, Kyle Connor 7, Rantanen 9, Marner 11.
 
Dirtyf1ghter said:
If Michkov had arrived in 2023 with success

2023-24 930 000$
2024-25 930 000$
2025-26 930 000$

2026-27 9 000 000$
2027-28 9 000 000$
2028-29 9 000 000$

Total : 30 000 000$

So his contract in the KHL would have to rise to the level of that of a star in the NHL. It's very far from being the case.
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Keep in mind, NHL salaries are very heavily taxed. $30 million in earnings can be as low as $15 million in net income after taxes and escrow.
 
He's the #2 player in this draft. But I keep getting this weird feeling that too many of these oldschool GMs are going to pass on him.

He shouldn't go past fourth, but I have this sick sense that he's going to fall to ~10th.
There is no comparison to be made between Vasili Podkolzin and Michkov, but Podz was also talked about as a top-3 pick leading up to that draft... ended up going 10th.

We all see the skillset. But if you haven't scouted him properly, the size + Russian factor (Political implications) + contract = sliding down the draft board.
 
nergish said:
He's the #2 player in this draft. But I keep getting this weird feeling that too many of these oldschool GMs are going to pass on him.

He shouldn't go past fourth, but I have this sick sense that he's going to fall to ~10th.
There is no comparison to be made between Vasili Podkolzin and Michkov, but Podz was also talked about as a top-3 pick leading up to that draft... ended up going 10th.

We all see the skillset. But if you haven't scouted him properly, the size + Russian factor (Political implications) + contract = sliding down the draft board.
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From what I hear the Caps will grab him. Either by draft or trade. They have the best Russia relations with Ovy.
 
I hardly see him slipping after 6th position. The Russian factor for me is above all the unpredictable aspect of the level of the Russians. Very complicated to know which Russian will be a flop, which Russian will be a superstar. I find it hard to believe the disaster scenario where Michkov will never be able to play in the NHL. That's much less likely than seeing Michkov become a superstar and look bad by picking a much worse player.

There are only 5 names that could lead me to believe that the franchise is not wrong. Smith and Reinbacher are among them.
 
nergish said:
He's the #2 player in this draft. But I keep getting this weird feeling that too many of these oldschool GMs are going to pass on him.

He shouldn't go past fourth, but I have this sick sense that he's going to fall to ~10th.
There is no comparison to be made between Vasili Podkolzin and Michkov, but Podz was also talked about as a top-3 pick leading up to that draft... ended up going 10th.

We all see the skillset. But if you haven't scouted him properly, the size + Russian factor (Political implications) + contract = sliding down the draft board.
Click to expand...

Why is he the 2nd best?

How on earth can you watch all 3 Fantilli/Carlson/Michkov and come to the conclusion Michkov is the best player of the punch today?
 
BB88 said:
Why is he the 2nd best?

How on earth can you watch all 3 Fantilli/Carlson/Michkov and come to the conclusion Michkov is the best player of the punch today?
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Because he plays in a mens league that is very strong perhaps? Would Bedard have 20 points in 29 KHL games like Michkov have this season with Sochi? I doubt it. Dont get me wrong, Bedard is a great player and will be a NHL star, but what Michkov is doing is more impressing.

When it comes to Leo Carlsson its hard to judge becuse SHL is not a good league, anyone can dominate there. I think he should stay one more year in Europe and go to stronger leagues to test himself like NLA, DEL, Liiga, KHL or even Czechia league.
 
So barring the stars aligning for Flyers fans and winning the lottery, what are the odds he falls to their pick because of “circumstances”?
 
Eye of Ra said:
Because he plays in a mens league that is very strong perhaps? Would Bedard have 20 points in 29 KHL games like Michkov have this season with Sochi? I doubt it. Dont get me wrong, Bedard is a great player and will be a NHL star, but what Michkov is doing is more impressing.

When it comes to Leo Carlsson its hard to judge becuse SHL is not a good league, anyone can dominate there. I think he should stay one more year in Europe and go to stronger leagues to test himself like NLA, DEL, Liiga, KHL or even Czechia league.
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Oh yeah you lost your all credit there.

What a ridiculous take.
 
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BB88 said:
You are just making that above point that much stronger
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He's just a Sweden hating troll.

But seriously, I don't understand why you are so convinced Michkov isn't on the same level as Fantilli and Carlsson from purely a hockey perspective. Almost every thread where someone claims they think Michkov is the 2nd best player in the class you come and debate it. Which is fine it's what the site is for you are right but it's just pretty astonishing how much I see you debating the topic of Michkov.

When I have personally watched Michkov in the KHL and especially in past international competition, he looks like arguablly the smartest and most skilled player in the entire draft. His puck skills and IQ are truly some of the best I have ever seen in a prospect, and his historical production matches the eye test. Sure there are concerns with his size, but there are concerns with Fantilli's IQ as well. I think Michkov has a very strong chance to become a legit game changing winger in the NHL, and I would take a Kucherov-esque winger over most 1C's.

His situation in Russia are a completely different topic of debate - but from an on-ice POV, he's still the 2nd best player in the draft IMO.
 
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independent observer said:
From what I hear the Caps will grab him. Either by draft or trade. They have the best Russia relations with Ovy.
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The habs have great connections with the organization that owns Michkov (SKA).

The habs director of scouting is Brobov, and Brobov was SKA's director of scouting from 2011 to 2014. Brobov's father is also currently working as scout/consultant coach for that organization.
 
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nergish said:
He's the #2 player in this draft. But I keep getting this weird feeling that too many of these oldschool GMs are going to pass on him.

He shouldn't go past fourth, but I have this sick sense that he's going to fall to ~10th.
There is no comparison to be made between Vasili Podkolzin and Michkov, but Podz was also talked about as a top-3 pick leading up to that draft... ended up going 10th.

We all see the skillset. But if you haven't scouted him properly, the size + Russian factor (Political implications) + contract = sliding down the draft board.
Click to expand...
I can't see Michov dropping to 10th his skillset is really just on another level than from Podkolzin who I've always liked and hope that he develops into what he can be for the Canucks.
 
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