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RW/LW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA-Neva St.Petersburg, VHL (2019, 10th, VAN)

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Hockey Know it all said:
I agree. That’s why I like top end talent that go through the NCAA. They might only play 44 games Max but they also get to workout a hell of a lot more and practice more.
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I also see the USNTDP products success in the near future shift the consensus more towards more practice and working on skills and cohesion.
 
wings5 said:
I mean his stats aren't bad I just think the sample size is low, he played in what 12 regular season games? Hard to judge based on this.
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14GP, 2G, 3A, 5P in VHL reg season
8GP, 2G, 1A, 3P in VHL post season

3GP, no points in KHL reg season

12GP, 6G, 2A, 8P in MHL reg season
2GP, 1G, 0A, 1P in MHL post season

The sample size might be small, but to quote Jon Snow "I know it's not enough, but it's all we have". When you judge players on a full season and thiss is what you have, it does not warrant a top-5 pick in my opinion.
 
Russians continue to be underated , doesn't the fact that Bragin gave him icetime as a 17 year old , something he hasn't done with a forward prospect since maybe Kuznetsov mean something? It should.
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
14GP, 2G, 3A, 5P in VHL reg season
8GP, 2G, 1A, 3P in VHL post season

3GP, no points in KHL reg season

12GP, 6G, 2A, 8P in MHL reg season
2GP, 1G, 0A, 1P in MHL post season

The sample size might be small, but to quote Jon Snow "I know it's not enough, but it's all we have". When you judge players on a full season and thiss is what you have, it does not warrant a top-5 pick in my opinion.
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Looking at raw point totals with zero context is so wrong in so many ways. If you're going to draw your conclusions based on such small sample size, at least add some context to the numbers. Ice time is a great starting point. Raw point totals are absolutely worthless.
 
JoukoPouko said:
Looking at raw point totals with zero context is so wrong in so many ways. If you're going to draw your conclusions based on such small sample size, at least add some context to the numbers. Ice time is a great starting point. Raw point totals are absolutely worthless.
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Agreed. But he hasn't really played well in VHL either. I was merely responding to others who use the junior tournament raw numbers as justification to pick him in the top-5. Podkolzin is a 1st round prospect, but if it were me, I would pick him closer to 15 than 5
 
JoukoPouko said:
Looking at raw point totals with zero context is so wrong in so many ways. If you're going to draw your conclusions based on such small sample size, at least add some context to the numbers. Ice time is a great starting point. Raw point totals are absolutely worthless.
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Speaking of ice time, what does it signify that the ice time he receives in VHL sinks during the playoffs and then he gets demoted to MHL?

VHL is a league worse than Liiga, you think if he was, say, even as good as Kotkaniemi, he'd be playing 7min a game?

In MHL he's received 16 a game with very disappointing production as well.

What I'd read out of these stats is that he's played poorly. But of course, it's possible to conjure up all sorts of scenarios to fit an agenda. Such as him not getting an opportunity.
 
From reading about him here, I have no idea how good he is. I can see him falling in the draft.
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
Agreed. But he hasn't really played well in VHL either. I was merely responding to others who use the junior tournament raw numbers as justification to pick him in the top-5. Podkolzin is a 1st round prospect, but if it were me, I would pick him closer to 15 than 5
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His role in the VHL has been a 4th-line energy player. He has been great in that role. He has talent to be much more than that but if he's not given ice time, offensive opportunities and freedom to make mistakes, it's almost impossible to produce offense.

In Podkolzin's case, both club play and international tournaments should have about equal weight because of small sample sizes with all of them. Merging three leagues into one isn't a valid resource either. Otherwise we should be merging all international tournaments into one as well.

People should also remember Podkolzin had never even played at the MHL level before this season. Most prospects his age have a season in the MHL under their belt already, and that makes a world of difference at such a young age. And similarly, prospects in the CHL have a season's worth of experience at that level already. Making the jump to the MHL level is difficult and requires adjustments. Making the jump to the VHL is another very difficult step and again requires adjustments. We can't just assume teenagers can jump to the next level and never miss a beat - just like we don't expect them to jump to the NHL and produce huge numbers right out the gate.

And finally, there isn't really a "top-5 tier" this year. 1st tier has 2 players, 2nd tier has 5-6 players. All this talk about top-5 pick is just confusing people who don't have a good grip of this draft class. Top-2 and top-10 are more realistic tiers, and I see no reason why Podkolzin wouldn't be in that top-10 tier. I just can't find 10 players I would put ahead of him. Maybe in a different year (2020 for example) I could do that but not in 2019.
 
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Last year it was Brady Tkachuk who got heavily criticized by his league production, this year it seems to be Podkolzin. The armchair stat watchers need another top prospect every year to go after to spew their agenda, and preferably a player who they have not seen (enough), and someone who hasn't got same nationality as them.

I've seen enough of him personally to not get rattled by his league production. I watched the recent MHL playoff game 2, and he created and scored a goal and was making something happen and was dangerous almost every shift. This, with the other 20+ viewings I have of him, I have NO doubts that he's at least deserving of the first spot behind Kakko/Hughes/Turcotte/whoever you might see as a future elite offensive player.
 
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jvr32 said:
Last year it was Brady Tkachuk who got heavily criticized by his league production, this year it seems to be Podkolzin. The armchair stat watchers need another top prospect every year to go after to spew their agenda, and preferably a player who they have not seen (enough), and someone who hasn't got same nationality as them.

I've seen enough of him personally to not get rattled by his league production. I watched the recent MHL playoff game 2, and he created and scored a goal and was making something happen and was dangerous almost every shift. This, with the other 20+ viewings I have of him, I have NO doubts that he's at least deserving of the first spot behind Kakko/Hughes/Turcotte/whoever you might see as a future elite offensive player.
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Brady Tkachuk is actually a name that popped to my head as well. Podkolzin has similar intensity, competitiveness, work ethic and strong two-way game with lots of offensive talent. Obviously Tkachuk was almost a year older at the time, so Podkolzin isn't as far in his development. But that's the type of player each team wants on their roster, especially during the playoffs.
 
Deficient Mode said:
It's a small sample whichever way you choose with Podkolzin. If you want to say his domestic production is bad, it's also over a small sample. Per game impact is as much of a result of opportunity as it is of talent, and that's why it's much better to look at per minute stats in a case like this. Assuming all of his ice time was at even strength (all of his points were), he scored 1.79 p1/60 over the regular season and playoffs in the VHL (in only 234 minutes). That's not even bad; it's in fact still a high mark in a professional league. And the VHL is much, much closer to Liiga or the AHL in difficulty of scoring than to the USHL or even NCAA.
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I don't think Podkolzin is having a terrible season or lacks offensive ability. I think NHL teams drafting at the top of the draft have to be careful with where they select him. I think there's significant risk in selecting him. I said the same thing with Kravtsov last season. Due to his playing time, it was hard to evaluate how good Kravtsov was relative to other draft prospects. Its much easier to evaluate players in junior who play nearly 20 minutes per game. Its much harder to evaluate a player who plays very low minutes in a top mens league or plays such a sporadic role and bounces from the junior team to the minor league team to the first team depending on the day. There is risk in drafting these players with a top five pick. Unless you are drafting a player who has 1OA, 2OA talent, can you justify that selection at 4, 5, 6?

I think towards the end of the top ten or in the 11-15 range, there's less risk because almost all the picks are risky. This draft also appears to have a drop off after the top 12-13 players. The problem in my opinion with assessing Podkolzin's placement in the draft is the justification for picking him over players such as Dach, Zegras, Krebs. Does he have higher upside? I think its debatable. The small sample has made it harder to evaluate Podkolzin, but I don't see him as possessing elite tools in every facet of the game. I think his hockey IQ is questionable, the skating is good but not elite, and I think there are questions about how much of a possession game he can play. I think when you combine what appears to be 7th or 8th OA talent with a sporadic season, I personally have him ranked 10th.
 
I learned my lesson with Brady Tkachuk. I had him in my top ten but not my top five and it was because of league production. When I watch Podkolzin, I love what I see. Much like Tkachuk. I’ve read some good analysis that provides context for Podkolzin’s production/ice-time. That’s good enough for me. I’m trying to evolve and not get hung up on the same things over and over again.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
I don't think Podkolzin is having a terrible season or lacks offensive ability. I think NHL teams drafting at the top of the draft have to be careful with where they select him. I think there's significant risk in selecting him. I said the same thing with Kravtsov last season. Due to his playing time, it was hard to evaluate how good Kravtsov was relative to other draft prospects. Its much easier to evaluate players in junior who play nearly 20 minutes per game. Its much harder to evaluate a player who plays very low minutes in a top mens league or plays such a sporadic role and bounces from the junior team to the minor league team to the first team depending on the day. There is risk in drafting these players with a top five pick. Unless you are drafting a player who has 1OA, 2OA talent, can you justify that selection at 4, 5, 6?

I think towards the end of the top ten or in the 11-15 range, there's less risk because almost all the picks are risky. This draft also appears to have a drop off after the top 12-13 players. The problem in my opinion with assessing Podkolzin's placement in the draft is the justification for picking him over players such as Dach, Zegras, Krebs. Does he have higher upside? I think its debatable. The small sample has made it harder to evaluate Podkolzin, but I don't see him as possessing elite tools in every facet of the game. I think his hockey IQ is questionable, the skating is good but not elite, and I think there are questions about how much of a possession game he can play. I think when you combine what appears to be 7th or 8th OA talent with a sporadic season, I personally have him ranked 10th.
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I agree with a lot of what you're saying apart from maybe the hockey IQ part. He does well on the cycle I think, but it's not his strong suit. I agree that there is more uncertainty with a player with a smaller sample of domestic play. I just don't think the use of per game statistics does justice to his production or his talent when he's playing low minutes even in the MHL to some degree (where he hasn't played on the power play nearly to the same degree as top prospects in the CHL).
 
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I think the only real risk with Podkolzin - aside from the banal and obvious reality that prospects are unknowns - is his willingness to play in North America. If he is thinking to stay in Russia for a few years like Kaprizov he will be less attractive to teams.

I don't agree that he is unproven, or that his production is lacking. Scouts have seen him many times and he has produced at a very high rate in tournaments. Podkolzin has earned his top-5, even to-3 status through concrete results. He has produced at a very high level all season long.
 
All the people hating on Podkolzin still probably rank him 10-15 in this draft, well ahead of players with far better stats.

So why 10-15??? If you’re so down on him because of stats, why not rank him 35 or 57???
 
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Steve Kournianos said:
All the people hating on Podkolzin still probably rank him 10-15 in this draft, well ahead of players with far better stats.

So why 10-15??? If you’re so down on him because of stats, why not rank him 35 or 57???
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I think I explained it in the post above. Where does his talent rank and how many spots do you drop him for the question marks? I think the question marks are present, but not big enough that he drops below the players with a tier less talent. I think he should be lower than the players with similar talent that don’t have the same question marks
 
Steve Kournianos said:
All the people hating on Podkolzin still probably rank him 10-15 in this draft, well ahead of players with far better stats.

So why 10-15??? If you’re so down on him because of stats, why not rank him 35 or 57???
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It's not that we know Podkolzin is bad, it's that we're not sure we've got enough information to say he's elite. It's uncertainty. Predictability of return definitely affects how we value assets. But at a certain point, the risk will be perceived as worth the reward--likely much sooner than your example suggests.

If we're 80% sure Byram (or whoever) is an 8/10, but only 40% sure Podkolzin is a 8.5/10, of course we'd take the other player. But that doesn't mean that we'd take a guy who's 80% sure to be a 7/10 instead. At some point it becomes compelling to roll the dice.

It's too risky to do that in the top 5, I'd argue. The top 5 is a place where you *must* come out with a dependable asset, because through the lottery and year to year churn of teams, you may not get another chance. That could mean the difference between mediocrity and competitiveness.
 
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Steve Kournianos said:
All the people hating on Podkolzin still probably rank him 10-15 in this draft, well ahead of players with far better stats.
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I agree with your post Steve. But this being said, who exactly has better stats than Podkolzin? CHLers?

Stats of European, and particularly Russian, players are always hard to evaluate. This is why European draft-eligibles are typically evaluated in tournaments and Podkolzin has excelled in those.

This whole conversation is puzzling.
 
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Fire Ken Holland said:
I didn't say that.
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I don't see the controversy then. Podkolzin has been ranked consistently third for some months now and within reason.

At the international level he is more proven than many of these other names. But we're supposed to be concerned he's not PPG in the WHL?

Anyone who ranks him below #5 is a quack, period.
 
Fire Ken Holland said:
But the criticism is that Podkolzin only performs well at tournaments. Surely you have an argument that's not, "Look at this tournament!"
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That's a pretty unfounded criticism, considering that Podkolzin has spent most of the year playing against men.

If guys like Krebs, Byram, Cozens, Dach had particularly compelling resumes this would be a different story.
 
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Fantomas said:
That's a pretty unfounded criticism, considering that Podkolzin has spent most of the year playing against men.

If guys like Krebs, Byram, Cozens, Dach had particularly compelling resumes this would be a different story.
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It isn't, because tournament play is very different from club play.

MHL is a far weaker league than CHL, and Podkolzin's performance in MHL is very weak.
 

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