RW/LW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA-Neva St.Petersburg, VHL (2019, 10th, VAN)

[kp61c]

i don't know, kuch blew the mhl out of the water at the same age (and the average player was much older then). i don't see that level if talent in podkolzin and his inability to produce is pretty damning. stylistically he reminds me of young nichushkin.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I think I explained it in the post above. Where does his talent rank and how many spots do you drop him for the question marks? I think the question marks are present, but not big enough that he drops below the players with a tier less talent. I think he should be lower than the players with similar talent that don’t have the same question marks

Every player, including Hughes and Kakko, at this stage has question marks. Some major.

Outside of the Russian factor and maybe discipline, what are Podkolzin’s question marks?

Hockey sense off the charts. Compete level and intensity off the charts. Leadership off the charts. Clutch play off the charts. Physicality off the charts. Positioning off the charts. Strength and balance for his size way off the charts. Two-way play excellent. Versatility excellent. Speed and shot are well above average.

Playmaking, passing and vision? Every coach has him running the PP from the half wall, and it’s not just for one-timers. Makes excellent decisions on odd-man rushes as well.

Again, the stats against his peers — combined international and MHL -are excellent. Seven goals in 14 MHL games, 18 goals in 34 games vs combined INTL/MHL as a late-June 2001.

That matters, and GMs and scouts are quoted all over Youtube saying how important that is.

 

[Goulet17]

That's a pretty unfounded criticism, considering that Podkolzin has spent most of the year playing against men.

If guys like Krebs, Byram, Cozens, Dach had particularly compelling resumes this would be a different story.

I think you are off base in some respects regarding resumes. Byram just had one of the more remarkable CHL draft age seasons in recent years. I am not as high on him as some others, but I can see why he would pick up momentum at the top of the draft.

Krebs and Dach have had fine seasons and were strong at the Ivan Hlinka tournament. Cozens had a fantastic year in the WHL. You didn't mention Zegras or Turcotte, but both had excellent seasons as well (event though Turcotte's season was injury-shortened).

One of the things that is not really discussed with respect to Podkolzin is that he is a winger. In recent years, we have seen teams draft centers higher, in some cases seemingly forcing picks because those prospects played center. Putting aside all of the other discussion regarding Podkolzin, many of the other top-prospects in the next tier after Hughes-Kakko are centers, which teams seem to put a premium on for drafting.

My thinking about why Podkolzin may fall (although likely not any lower than 6-8) is the position is he plays relative to the other prospects in that range (Cozens, Zegras, Turcotte, Dach, and Krebs).

 

[JoukoPouko]

I love it how everyone just keeps going back to his MHL games but completely ignores context.
- He played 10/12 games in September when he was barely 17 years old
- He had never played at that level before those games (adjustment is always needed at a new level)
- His ice time wasn't very high (16:03) compared to what most top prospects get in junior hockey (20+)
- He played against very tough opponents (didn't get to pad his stats against the weaker teams in the league)

And no, the MHL isn't actually weaker than the CHL.

So yeah, 8 points in 12 games isn't the end of the world. It's a very small sample size, so context is very important. But people who like to hate him conveniently ignore context because it doesn't suit their agenda.

 

[Fantomas]

It isn't, because tournament play is very different from club play.

MHL is a far weaker league than CHL, and Podkolzin's performance in MHL is very weak.

I'm glad you did some stat counting and now have an "expert opinion" on the matter.

 

[Fantomas]

I love it how everyone just keeps going back to his MHL games but completely ignores context.
- He played 10/12 games in September when he was barely 17 years old
- He had never played at that level before those games (adjustment is always needed at a new level)
- His ice time wasn't very high (16:03) compared to what most top prospects get in junior hockey (20+)
- He played against very tough opponents (didn't get to pad his stats against the weaker teams in the league)

And no, the MHL isn't actually weaker than the CHL.

Yeap. The MHL is a tough league and has many older players.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Outside of the Russian factor and maybe discipline, what are Podkolzin’s question marks?

Hockey sense off the charts. Compete level and intensity off the charts. Leadership off the charts. Clutch play off the charts. Physicality off the charts. Positioning off the charts. Strength and balance for his size way off the charts. Two-way play excellent. Versatility excellent. Speed and shot are well above average.

Playmaking, passing and vision? Every coach has him running the PP from the half wall, and it’s not just for one-timers. Makes excellent decisions on odd-man rushes as well.

I don't agree with some of this.

I think there are three question marks in his game compared to some of the elite prospects in this draft. I think his hockey IQ is questionable, I think his skating is good but not great, and I question his ability to play a possession game.

I don't know if you are doing this, but I think compete level, intensity, leadership, toughness often gets included in the hockey IQ category, and I don't think it should be. Podkolzin might rank well in those former categories, but I don't think he has more than an average hockey IQ.

I also don't think he skates that well compared to players like Hughes, Zegras, Turcotte, Krebs, Cozens. Thats not to say he's a bad skater. I think he's above-average in functional skating, but lacks top-end speed. His skating is similar to Boldy, in my opinion. They aren't that fast, but they are good at rushing the puck up the ice due to having good power in their skating stride, change of direction and stick skills. I think if you are going to rank a player that high, having elite skating is a near must. You are going to have to downgrade them from the elite, if they aren't a great skater. I think that works against Kakko, Dach and Boldy. I think they are all very good prospects, but skating is an important part of the game. If they were better skaters, I think I'd rank them higher.

When it comes to his offensive playing style, I think he has a lot of good tools, but most of it is used off the rush. Off the cycle and when the game isn't up and down, I think he struggles to get as involved in the game offensively. I think part of that is due to his hockey IQ. You have to make quicker decisions when there's less space. I think he struggles with that. I thought he struggled at the WJC on the PP where a more methodical style was required.

 

[King'sPawn]

Every player, including Hughes and Kakko, at this stage has question marks. Some major.

Outside of the Russian factor and maybe discipline, what are Podkolzin’s question marks?

Hockey sense off the charts. Compete level and intensity off the charts. Leadership off the charts. Clutch play off the charts. Physicality off the charts. Positioning off the charts. Strength and balance for his size way off the charts. Two-way play excellent. Versatility excellent. Speed and shot are well above average.

Playmaking, passing and vision? Every coach has him running the PP from the half wall, and it’s not just for one-timers. Makes excellent decisions on odd-man rushes as well.

Again, the stats against his peers — combined international and MHL -are excellent. Seven goals in 14 MHL games, 18 goals in 34 games vs combined INTL/MHL as a late-June 2001.

That matters, and GMs and scouts are quoted all over Youtube saying how important that is.

On pure talent, he's unquestionably top-5.

I would say his talent and compete level is arguably the highest.

Only reason I am uncomfortable with the Kings drafting him high is due to the uncertainty of him ever coming to North America. It's a high risk for an organization that a) has quite a few high risk prospects and b) has not had good luck bringing in Russian players.

 

[Goulet17]

On pure talent, he's unquestionably top-5.

I would say his talent and compete level is arguably the highest.

Only reason I am uncomfortable with the Kings drafting him high is due to the uncertainty of him ever coming to North America. It's a high risk for an organization that a) has quite a few high risk prospects and b) has not had good luck bringing in Russian players.

I think this would be an issue for a few potential teams at the top of the board. I don't see Edmonton drafting a Russian player that high. I could see Detroit and the NY Rangers drafting him high. I doubt Colorado or Buffalo would.

I should qualify my statements as I am not suggesting that it is due to the fact that he is Russian, but rather he seems rather non-committal as to when he may come to NA.

 

[FrankGallagher]

It isn't, because tournament play is very different from club play.

MHL is a far weaker league than CHL, and Podkolzin's performance in MHL is very weak.

MHL scoring is also completely different though. Much lower scoring with most teams not having a single player over PPG. The gap also isn't as big as most would think as the MHL has no limit on "overage" players and is a much older league than the CHL

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I agree with your post Steve. But this being said, who exactly has better stats than Podkolzin? CHLers?

Stats of European, and particularly Russian, players are always hard to evaluate. This is why European draft-eligibles are typically evaluated in tournaments and Podkolzin has excelled in those.

This whole conversation is puzzling.

I would pick Dorofeyev over Podkolzin because I feel he's the better overall player. His mature style of hockey seems to translate better to the pros in my opinion. Podkolzin plays a great game but it's very opportunistic

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I don't agree with some of this.

I think there are three question marks in his game compared to some of the elite prospects in this draft. I think his hockey IQ is questionable, I think his skating is good but not great, and I question his ability to play a possession game.

I don't know if you are doing this, but I think compete level, intensity, leadership, toughness often gets included in the hockey IQ category, and I don't think it should be. Podkolzin might rank well in those former categories, but I don't think he has more than an average hockey IQ.

I also don't think he skates that well compared to players like Hughes, Zegras, Turcotte, Krebs, Cozens. Thats not to say he's a bad skater. I think he's above-average in functional skating, but lacks top-end speed. His skating is similar to Boldy, in my opinion. They aren't that fast, but they are good at rushing the puck up the ice due to having good power in their skating stride, change of direction and stick skills. I think if you are going to rank a player that high, having elite skating is a near must. You are going to have to downgrade them from the elite, if they aren't a great skater. I think that works against Kakko, Dach and Boldy. I think they are all very good prospects, but skating is an important part of the game. If they were better skaters, I think I'd rank them higher.

When it comes to his offensive playing style, I think he has a lot of good tools, but most of it is used off the rush. Off the cycle and when the game isn't up and down, I think he struggles to get as involved in the game offensively. I think part of that is due to his hockey IQ. You have to make quicker decisions when there's less space. I think he struggles with that. I thought he struggled at the WJC on the PP where a more methodical style was required.

Respectfully disagree with literally everything you wrote here. I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Caser]

 

[ccman68]

I don't agree with some of this.

I think there are three question marks in his game compared to some of the elite prospects in this draft. I think his hockey IQ is questionable, I think his skating is good but not great, and I question his ability to play a possession game.

I don't know if you are doing this, but I think compete level, intensity, leadership, toughness often gets included in the hockey IQ category, and I don't think it should be. Podkolzin might rank well in those former categories, but I don't think he has more than an average hockey IQ.

I also don't think he skates that well compared to players like Hughes, Zegras, Turcotte, Krebs, Cozens. Thats not to say he's a bad skater. I think he's above-average in functional skating, but lacks top-end speed. His skating is similar to Boldy, in my opinion. They aren't that fast, but they are good at rushing the puck up the ice due to having good power in their skating stride, change of direction and stick skills. I think if you are going to rank a player that high, having elite skating is a near must. You are going to have to downgrade them from the elite, if they aren't a great skater. I think that works against Kakko, Dach and Boldy. I think they are all very good prospects, but skating is an important part of the game. If they were better skaters, I think I'd rank them higher.

When it comes to his offensive playing style, I think he has a lot of good tools, but most of it is used off the rush. Off the cycle and when the game isn't up and down, I think he struggles to get as involved in the game offensively. I think part of that is due to his hockey IQ. You have to make quicker decisions when there's less space. I think he struggles with that. I thought he struggled at the WJC on the PP where a more methodical style was required.

The guy leading the NHL in scoring right now doesn’t have elite skating. Feel like you are overvaluing skating quite a bit.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The guy leading the NHL in scoring right now doesn’t have elite skating. Feel like you are overvaluing skating quite a bit.

I didn't say that you need elite skating to be an elite player. When you compare a player's skill-set pre draft, you weigh the important parts of the game. Skating is one of those things. A lot will claim Hughes has a bad shot and isn't a good goal-scorer, but I think they mean that relative to the other top prospects. If you look at his goal tallies, it would be crazy to say he's not going to be at least an above-average goal-scorer in the NHL. But at the top of these drafts, not being elite in an area is worth mentioning. Most of the players in the top 5 of most drafts are elite in most areas of the game. I also mentioned three parts of the game that I don't think Podkolzin is good at, not one.

 

[ccman68]

I didn't say that you need elite skating to be an elite player. When you compare a player's skill-set pre draft, you weigh the important parts of the game. Skating is one of those things. A lot will claim Hughes has a bad shot and isn't a good goal-scorer, but I think they mean that relative to the other top prospects. If you look at his goal tallies, it would be crazy to say he's not going to be at least an above-average goal-scorer in the NHL. But at the top of these drafts, not being elite in an area is worth mentioning. Most of the players in the top 5 of most drafts are elite in most areas of the game. I also mentioned three parts of the game that I don't think Podkolzin is good at, not one.

That makes a bit more sense. It just sounded like you were saying that you wouldn’t draft someone high if they didn’t have elite skating.

 

[Zaddy]

I don't agree with some of this.

I think there are three question marks in his game compared to some of the elite prospects in this draft. I think his hockey IQ is questionable, I think his skating is good but not great, and I question his ability to play a possession game.

I don't know if you are doing this, but I think compete level, intensity, leadership, toughness often gets included in the hockey IQ category, and I don't think it should be. Podkolzin might rank well in those former categories, but I don't think he has more than an average hockey IQ.

I also don't think he skates that well compared to players like Hughes, Zegras, Turcotte, Krebs, Cozens. Thats not to say he's a bad skater. I think he's above-average in functional skating, but lacks top-end speed. His skating is similar to Boldy, in my opinion. They aren't that fast, but they are good at rushing the puck up the ice due to having good power in their skating stride, change of direction and stick skills. I think if you are going to rank a player that high, having elite skating is a near must. You are going to have to downgrade them from the elite, if they aren't a great skater. I think that works against Kakko, Dach and Boldy. I think they are all very good prospects, but skating is an important part of the game. If they were better skaters, I think I'd rank them higher.

When it comes to his offensive playing style, I think he has a lot of good tools, but most of it is used off the rush. Off the cycle and when the game isn't up and down, I think he struggles to get as involved in the game offensively. I think part of that is due to his hockey IQ. You have to make quicker decisions when there's less space. I think he struggles with that. I thought he struggled at the WJC on the PP where a more methodical style was required.

Great post. I agree with pretty much all of this. I feel Podkolzin is a very underwhelming prospect for where he is ranked. He doesn't have elite hockey IQ (Dach), elite skating (Hughes, Turcotte) or a superb all-around game (Kakko). There are just too many question marks in his game for me to rank him that high.

Having a great shot, hands and compete level is nice, but to make it in the NHL you need a lot more than that. Shot, hands and compete level are in the end just tools, whereas having hockey IQ and playmaking/vision (which usually goes hand-in-hand with IQ) is part of the actual "toolbox" that you need.

I think Leon Draisaitl vs Sam Bennett is a good example to illustrate what I mean. Draisaitl had the toolbox (hockey IQ, playmaking, vision) but not the tools (skating, shot, compete) whereas Bennett had an amazing toolset with his speed, intensity and two-way game.

The majority of scouts ranked Bennett higher because of his enticing tools, but who is the star player in the NHL today? The guy with the toolbox. That's why I'd easily take guys like Turcotte, Dach and Krebs over Podkolzin.

 

[NickH8]

Great post. I agree with pretty much all of this. I feel Podkolzin is a very underwhelming prospect for where he is ranked. He doesn't have elite hockey IQ (Dach), elite skating (Hughes, Turcotte) or a superb all-around game (Kakko). There are just too many question marks in his game for me to rank him that high.

Having a great shot, hands and compete level is nice, but to make it in the NHL you need a lot more than that. Shot, hands and compete level are in the end just tools, whereas having hockey IQ and playmaking/vision (which usually goes hand-in-hand with IQ) is part of the actual "toolbox" that you need.

I think Leon Draisaitl vs Sam Bennett is a good example to illustrate what I mean. Draisaitl had the toolbox (hockey IQ, playmaking, vision) but not the tools (skating, shot, compete) whereas Bennett had an amazing toolset with his speed, intensity and two-way game.

The majority of scouts ranked Bennett higher because of his enticing tools, but who is the star player in the NHL today? The guy with the toolbox. That's why I'd easily take guys like Turcotte, Dach and Krebs over Podkolzin.

Under this lense what do you think of Cozens?

 

[Zaddy]

Under this lense what do you think of Cozens?

In short: I'm not a fan at all. You can check the Cozens thread to see some of my comments on him. There's more if you dig through the draft threads on the Oilers board

 

[theVladiator]

I think Leon Draisaitl vs Sam Bennett is a good example to illustrate what I mean. Draisaitl had the toolbox (hockey IQ, playmaking, vision) but not the tools (skating, shot, compete) whereas Bennett had an amazing toolset with his speed, intensity and two-way game.

You might be using that example backwards. It's quite possible that Draisaitl was being underrated prior to the draft because people were looking for flaws in his game in order to explain his average production. Conversely, people were focusing on the positives in Sam Bennett's game, again, to explain his very impressive junior numbers. It's called confirmation bias.

I am honestly dumbfounded as to where this lack of IQ narrative came from, the only explanation I have is the confirmation bias to rationalize the stat lines. Game watching thorough stat-watching glasses if you will. But I want to point out that if you really think Podkolzin lacks IQ, that's a very serious flaw. I think in that case you should rank him out of top 10 altogether, not shuffle around within the same tier with Turcotte/Krebs/Dach.

 

[Zaddy]

You might be using that example backwards. It's quite possible that Draisaitl was being underrated prior to the draft because people were looking for flaws in his game in order to explain his average production. Conversely, people were focusing on the positives in Sam Bennett's game, again, to explain his very impressive junior numbers. It's called confirmation bias.

Lol no. I meant what I meant. Many people tend to get blown away by a player when they have a few tools that really sticks out. Guys that are flashy, and Podkolzin is certainly flashy. Cerebral players tend to be underrated because it's not as easily detected in a player unless you really look for it and put all of their plays under a microscope. That's when you see all the small things they do right, and similarly how players with low IQ fail to make what should be routine plays.

I am honestly dumbfounded as to where this lack of IQ narrative came from, the only explanation I have is the confirmation bias to rationalize the stat lines. Game watching thorough stat-watching glasses if you will. But I want to point out that if you really think Podkolzin lacks IQ, that's a very serious flaw. I think in that case you should rank him out of top 10 altogether, not shuffle around within the same tier with Turcotte/Krebs/Dach.

I never said either of those things. I don't think Podkolzin is a high IQ player, but I don't think he has terrible IQ either. It's just...average. Probably good enough to play in the NHL, but not good enough to be an elite player / warrant a top3 pick. And I don't have him in the same tier as those guys you mentioned, I have him lower than those. And while you brought it up, yes I consider lack of IQ a very serious flaw, which is why I have Cozens much lower than everyone else, including Podkolzin.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Lol no. I meant what I meant. Many people tend to get blown away by a player when they have a few tools that really sticks out. Guys that are flashy, and Podkolzin is certainly flashy. Cerebral players tend to be underrated because it's not as easily detected in a player unless you really look for it and put all of their plays under a microscope. That's when you see all the small things they do right, and similarly how players with low IQ fail to make what should be routine plays.

He's scored some nice rush goals in U18's, but I don't really think he's a 'flashy' player.

Not going to pretend I've watched 20+ games from VHL/MHL but I did watch WJC and every shift by shift pack I can find. (as well as highlights & highlight packs of course).

I think the IQ concerns are overblown. He looks like a smart player to me, not overly flashy. Seems like more of a playmaker than a goal scorer (though he has a very good shot), could just be the games I've seen but I'd like him to shoot more. Makes some really nice/smart passes, & tries to setup teammates. In one MHL S/S I rewatched this morn he could've had 2 or 3 assists just on plays his teammates blew.

Skating wise, seems to skate slower with the puck (I guess like most players), without it he can gain speed & really go. Skating isn't top end of the draft, could use improvement but definitely not a huge concern.

I absolutely love how strong he is on the puck, how strong he is down low in the O-zone, & how he battles for the puck. Reminds me a bit of the Tkachuk bro's in that area. Not sure what his upside will ultimately be but he should be a top 6 player & has all the tools. Definitely top 10 talent, ahead of Zegras/Boldy for me.

I'd love him on the Canucks next to Horvat (or Pete), but I'm also concerned about when he'll come over.

 

[ijuka]

Well, I recently watched Podkolzin's MHL playoff game, where he scored a goal and an assist, against Almaz where his team won 5-0, and so I'll talk about it.

Let's see, where to begin? First of all, the skating looked just plain weak. The top speed was meh, agility meh, nothing special shown with regards to acceleration. Forechecking was for the most part mediocre, outside of one sequence but I didn't exactly find the opposition's play very impressive there. Actually, most of the game was spent floating outside the play. He had very few plays overall even though he had 2 points.

Defensively, the thing I noticed is that the defensive IQ looks extremely low. Like he has no idea how to defend in the own zone. Apparently, he had no assignments at all and spent his time watching the puck. It's interesting, he looked just fine during the backchecking phase but when the opponent got sustained pressure in his defensive zone, it appeared that he had no idea what to do and went from one side of the rink to the other and even right in front of the net. Well, perhaps that just is a very creative defensive system for wingers by the coach, who knows. When it comes to competitiveness, he certainly threw a hit or two but I didn't see anything crazy competitive by him at least in this game. Not in the defensive zone nor the offensive zone.

For offense, he made some very poor moves with the puck, like attempting poor dangles that had no hope of succeeding. And the hands did not look good in any instance in this game, in fact the puckhandling looked clumsy to me. On the other hand, there was at least one quite good a move to get past a player and get a shot on goal. Still, it was remarkable how little he actually got to play / do anything at all with the puck - most of the shifts he might have had one touch at best, with him dumping it in and going out for a change - and this usually is a good indicator for poor hockey IQ. This even was in a game his team won 5-0. The goal was some rebound, the assist was an impressive backhanded blind pass on PP. The only real flash of any sort of first-round potential I saw all game, by the way.

If his performance in this game was how I'd judge him as a player, I honestly would have no clue where all this talk about his 2-way play and competitiveness comes from. The worst thing is, he didn't even stand out positively at all, even while watching him he wasn't even close to being the most visible player on his team, which to me is a significant problem. MHL is not a good league and he's being outplayed by a last year's 2nd rounder, among others. Full match for reference:

Spoiler

for second opinions.

By the way, watching MHL is free and so easy that there's no excuse to use tournament play as the primary material. After all, Russian players might have quite a bit more drive playing for Mother Russia, wouldn't be the first time.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

He may not be ready for the NHL but he is young and he is uber fn talented. Top 5 pick talented. Give him some time and he will be a star in the NHL imo

 

[avsfan09]

You might be using that example backwards. It's quite possible that Draisaitl was being underrated prior to the draft because people were looking for flaws in his game in order to explain his average production. Conversely, people were focusing on the positives in Sam Bennett's game, again, to explain his very impressive junior numbers. It's called confirmation bias.

Draisaitl had better Junior #'s than Bennett...