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RW/LW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA-Neva St.Petersburg, VHL (2019, 10th, VAN)

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theVladiator said:
Thank you for correcting me, it certainly wasn't a good example of points based bias.
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Haha well congrats on not being egotistical and getting upset. Wasn't trying to invalidate your opinion just noticed that issue. I wish more people could have discussions like these!
 
I’ll admit I don’t have Podkolzin top 5 let alone top 3 like most scouting services but man this thread is exactly like Tkachuks from last year. His Iq is fine, good enough to be a top 5-10 pick.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
I didn't say that you need elite skating to be an elite player. When you compare a player's skill-set pre draft, you weigh the important parts of the game. Skating is one of those things. A lot will claim Hughes has a bad shot and isn't a good goal-scorer, but I think they mean that relative to the other top prospects. If you look at his goal tallies, it would be crazy to say he's not going to be at least an above-average goal-scorer in the NHL. But at the top of these drafts, not being elite in an area is worth mentioning. Most of the players in the top 5 of most drafts are elite in most areas of the game. I also mentioned three parts of the game that I don't think Podkolzin is good at, not one.
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Skating encompasses various styles. There’s speed, edgework, quickness, shiftiness, balance for example.

A good shot involves factors like velocity, quickness of release, getting the shot through.

Does a players skating style help or hinder his style of play at the next level?
 
ijuka said:
Well, I recently watched Podkolzin's MHL playoff game, where he scored a goal and an assist, against Almaz where his team won 5-0, and so I'll talk about it.

...
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Thank you for posting that. I will admit I did not have the patience to watch the whole 2 hours, but I scrolled along and watched a handful of Podkolzin's shifts. While I would describe the overall tone as deferential to his linemates moreso than one would expect from the top 10 pick in a junior game, I did not see the other negative things you mentioned (lack of IQ, lost on defense, poor decisions). In one thing I will agree, if he were to be judged by that game, I would not pick him top 10. Not because he showed badly (like I said, disagree there with you), but not showing enough (that superb PP assist would likely leave me wanting to see more).

However, what's the context here? He was assigned to his junior team for a stretch of 3 playoff games after his VHL team's playoffs were over, with the expectation of him leaving for U-18 camp afterwards I assume. I think the coach likely gave him secondary role so as not to disrupt the team structure once he inevitably leaves for U-18 camp. A smart player would also be more conservative in play selection when his team is in the lead (dumping the puck). Depending on the context, he is either a low ceiling lethargic plugger, or a mature beyond his age unselfish future captain. Quite a spectrum to choose from without being sure of the context.

I was very impressed by his U-20 play. Waiting to see what he does at U-18.
 
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ijuka said:
MHL is a far weaker league than CHL, and Podkolzin's performance in MHL is very weak.
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This is what I have a problem with, far weaker? No matter what, its very very different. It not an independent competitive league. Its a junior league with affiliated kids. For some games there are sub 20 people in the stands. Games can mean a lot, or mean very little. At least to the organization as a whole.
 
Nabrules said:
I’ll admit I don’t have Podkolzin top 5 let alone top 3 like most scouting services but man this thread is exactly like Tkachuks from last year. His Iq is fine, good enough to be a top 5-10 pick.
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The U18 tournament will answer a lot of questions. If he dominates his peers we'll know what's what.
 
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Goulet17 said:
It may answer some questions, but some will linger (as in what is his ultimate time frame to come to NA). I am sure this will impact the analysis for some teams more than others.
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The U18 tournament is a major factor in scouting decisions for the NHL draft, quite possibly the biggest. If Podkolzin dominates this tournament literally no one will care about the MHL, except for "Pavel Buchnevich."
 
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Fantomas said:
The U18 tournament is a major factor in scouting decisions for the NHL draft, quite possibly the biggest. If Podkolzin dominates this tournament literally no one will care about the MHL, except for "Pavel Buchnevich."
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I think it is two separate issues, one of which focuses on his development in the Russian leagues, which I believe may be less of a concern. The other issue is his timeline for coming to NA to play. My understanding is that he is signed for two more years. Does he come over at that point or does he decide he wants to remain in Russia longer? He probably does not know himself at this point. This will impact how some teams evaluate him, the question is to what degree. It certainly will impact how teams view him for purposes of using a top-5 pick.
 
Goulet17 said:
I think it is two separate issues, one of which focuses on his development in the Russian leagues, which I believe may be less of a concern. The other issue is his timeline for coming to NA to play. My understanding is that he is signed for two more years. Does he come over at that point or does he decide he wants to remain in Russia longer? He probably does not know himself at this point. This will impact how some teams evaluate him, the question is to what degree. It certainly will impact how teams view him for purposes of using a top-5 pick.
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The Russian factor still exists.
 
I'd say he is a top 10 for sure, Probable top 7 and potential top 5. I'll be stoked if the Canucks get him at 9 or 10, not holding my breath though.
 
Fantomas said:
The Russian factor still exists.
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Potentially, I think it exists for practical concerns, as in when can we get this prospect into our organization. Are we potentially willing to spend a top-5 pick on a prospect that may not be in our organization for 3-4 years? For some GMs, they are probably concerned about not having a job that far down the line.

It will be interesting. I did not think this would be the case at first, but I could see Colorado taking him at pick number 3 or 4. Sakic has the ultimate job security and the organization has recently started acquiring/drafting Russian players more than in the past. The Avs have also taken some risks with their more recent selections (AJHL, BCHL, and prospects playing in Liiga and the Czech men's league).
 
Goulet17 said:
Potentially, I think it exists for practical concerns, as in when can we get this prospect into our organization. Are we potentially willing to spend a top-5 pick on a prospect that may not be in our organization for 3-4 years? For some GMs, they are probably concerned about not having a job that far down the line.

It will be interesting. I did not think this would be the case at first, but I could see Colorado taking him at pick number 3 or 4. Sakic has the ultimate job security and the organization has recently started acquiring/drafting Russian players more than in the past. The Avs have also taken some risks with their more recent selections (AJHL, BCHL, and prospects playing in Liiga and the Czech men's league).
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Teams usually try to form relationships with players they draft by talking to them and getting a sense of their personality and future direction. If they don't get this with Podkolzin I think he might drop.

He's not super talented like Hughes or Kakko and I think after the first two picks there's a lot of ambiguity anyway. A team like the Rags would be a natural fit because no Russian can turn down NY.
 
Fantomas said:
Teams usually try to form relationships with players they draft by talking to them and getting a sense of their personality and future direction. If they don't get this with Podkolzin I think he might drop.

He's not super talented like Hughes or Kakko and I think after the first two picks there's a lot of ambiguity anyway. A team like the Rags would be a natural fit because no Russian can turn down NY.
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I wholeheartedly agree with the bolded.
 
Goulet17 said:
Potentially, I think it exists for practical concerns, as in when can we get this prospect into our organization. Are we potentially willing to spend a top-5 pick on a prospect that may not be in our organization for 3-4 years? For some GMs, they are probably concerned about not having a job that far down the line.

It will be interesting. I did not think this would be the case at first, but I could see Colorado taking him at pick number 3 or 4. Sakic has the ultimate job security and the organization has recently started acquiring/drafting Russian players more than in the past. The Avs have also taken some risks with their more recent selections (AJHL, BCHL, and prospects playing in Liiga and the Czech men's league).
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AVs have a guaranteed Top 5, with a possibility of 1st OA.

The top 2 picks are locked with Hughes/Kakko. Just don't think they would draft Podkolzin after he dominated a single tourney and committed to another 2 years in the KHL. I expect him to fall to the 6-8 range.

Picks 3-5 are likely Cozens, Turcotte and Byram.
 

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