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RW Julien Gauthier (2016, 21st, CAR; traded to NYR)

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Could go be going closer to 20-35 range now, depending on how much scouts will want to hold the recent performance against him. He seemed around 9-14 but this second half of the season has been just awful from all indications.

I don't watch the Q, but a lot of Q followers on here and who follow prospects closely in the media have been ripping him.
 
He's basically had the inverse season to Logan Brown's. Brown was terribad for the first half of the season and then found his form to have a tremendous second half. Gauthier started the season on a tear and then lost his form in the back half of the year.

I can understand the preference for guys trending upwards, under the logic that things finally clicked for them. But IMO the truth here is simply that kids who are this big are usually very streaky at this age...unless they're super-elite prospects. Gauthier's run of form just happened to come at a different point in this season than Brown's; but both still have some work to do before they're ready to consistently play up to their ability.

So though his "stock" may be down, I think he's the same caliber of prospect as Brown (or Bellows).
 
cgf said:
He's basically had the inverse season to Logan Brown's. Brown was terribad for the first half of the season and then found his form to have a tremendous second half. Gauthier started the season on a tear and then lost his form in the back half of the year.

I can understand the preference for guys trending upwards, under the logic that things finally clicked for them. But IMO the truth here is simply that kids who are this big are usually very streaky at this age...unless they're super-elite prospects. Gauthier's run of form just happened to come at a different point in this season than Brown's; but both still have some work to do before they're ready to consistently play up to their ability.

So though his "stock" may be down, I think he's the same caliber of prospect as Brown (or Bellows).
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The difference in both players probably boils down to: Brown had an upward trajectory as a player, beyond simply points during the 2nd half; Gauthier in the 2nd half really wasn't playing drastically different...his unsustainable numbers just came down to earth to match his (often) problematic play.

I don't view Brown as the best 200 ft player , but his hockey IQ is up to snuff. Gauthier's hockey IQ just strikes me as so, so lackluster. And he is 6 months older than Brown. That matters. Bellows has rock solid hockey sense as a scoring winger, so I don't see them as comparable either. And he is 9 months younger than Gauthier. Gauthier's age isn't talked about enough imo. For an old draft eligible, his game feels stagnated by all his flaws.
 
I think you're selling Gauthier's play in the first half of the season short. I mean, it's not like he was throwing garbage on net and it happening to go in at a crazy rate. He was getting good goal scoring chances, putting good shots on net, and they were going in at unsustainable rates. He certainly benefitted from some fortunate bounces as well, but that wasn't the case more often than not.
 
cgf said:
I think you're selling Gauthier's play in the first half of the season short. I mean, it's not like he was throwing garbage on net and it happening to go in at a crazy rate. He was getting good goal scoring chances, putting good shots on net, and they were going in at unsustainable rates. He certainly benefitted from some fortunate bounces as well, but that wasn't the case more often than not.
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I'm not talking about just his goals. His all around play is lackluster imo when he is and isn't scoring goals. Scoring a goal is usually a good cover for having a bad game. People remember the goal, forget the game. I'm saying I don't think is overall play was drastically different from the 1st to the 2nd half.

Goal scorers are heavily bounce and luck dependent, but I like to see more when the bounces aren't there. Beyond net drive plays, which he is good at (not selling him short there) he struggles to create plays for himself and others. He doesn't take many shots relative to other pure goal scorers either, and they tend to be closer to the net. He just strikes me as the type of player who relies way too much on one dimensional plays or his teammates. And when they're not going, he's not going. And it always comes back to low hockey sense for me -- all over the ice. The fact that he is an October birthday makes this worse.
 
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I can agree with a lot of that second paragraph. Especially the point about needing his team-mates to keep his offense clicking when he's unable score by powering his way to the net.

That said the Avs would be taking him because they'd project him to play next to one of MacKinnon / Duchene / Rantanen as his center & one of Landeskog / Duchene / Rantanen / Grigorenko as the winger opposite him; that's not a dominant core or anything, but they all are better chance-creators than chance-takers. So if he can grow into an NHL quality defender & forechecker, I don't think there would be too much of a problem with those aspects of his offensive game.

Hell they've been making use of Iginla's corse because he can still take his chance (and has that bomb on the PP); and Iggy struggles to keep up with the slower bottom 6ers. So somebody who could "just" capitalize on what's created for him, while still having the ability to move and play the body, would do this team a world of good.

Which is why Gauthier & Bellows interest me so much and feel like the guys we're most likely to chose between at our pick...without one of the top 9 dropping.
 
Magua said:
I'm not talking about just his goals. His all around play is lackluster imo when he is and isn't scoring goals. Scoring a goal is usually a good cover for having a bad game. People remember the goal, forget the game. I'm saying I don't think is overall play was drastically different from the 1st to the 2nd half.

Goal scorers are heavily bounce and luck dependent, but I like to see more when the bounces aren't there. Beyond net drive plays, which he is good at (not selling him short there) he struggles to create plays for himself and others. He doesn't take many shots relative to other pure goal scorers either, and they tend to be closer to the net. He just strikes me as the type of player who relies way too much on one dimensional plays or his teammates. And when they're not going, he's not going. And it always comes back to low hockey sense for me -- all over the ice. The fact that he is an October birthday makes this worse.
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Regarding his goals around the net, that was something I noticed as well. From reading the reports I thought he would be this big time sniper, but after watching his highlight reel he scores pretty much all of them right at the crease, a lot of the time on the backside of the net off a nice pass. This has me more worried about him than the other factors. Just how good of a goal scorer is he going to be? You got to be able to snipe the puck to put up numbers at the NHL level.
 
Assume Gauthier was ~1 month older, i.e. born September 14 1997, so he would be eligible for last year's draft. Do you think he goes higher in that draft than in this one? He had about as good of a season statistically, but would be one of the youngest players in the draft rather than one of the oldest. The strength of 2015 was also better than 2016 so take that into consideration. People are mocking him usually between 15-25, and if he was in last year's draft I think the Bruins would have picked him with their Senyshyn pick for sure (big fast goal scoring winger). He definitely goes after Meier, but what about vs Crouse?

Thoughts?
 
Connor McDaigle said:
Assume Gauthier was ~1 month older, i.e. born September 14 1997, so he would be eligible for last year's draft. Do you think he goes higher in that draft than in this one? He had about as good of a season statistically, but would be one of the youngest players in the draft rather than one of the oldest. The strength of 2015 was also better than 2016 so take that into consideration. People are mocking him usually between 15-25, and if he was in last year's draft I think the Bruins would have picked him with their Senyshyn pick for sure (big fast goal scoring winger). He definitely goes after Meier, but what about vs Crouse?

Thoughts?
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I take Crouse over Meier or Gauthier.
 
WTFMAN99 said:
Could go be going closer to 20-35 range now, depending on how much scouts will want to hold the recent performance against him. He seemed around 9-14 but this second half of the season has been just awful from all indications.

I don't watch the Q, but a lot of Q followers on here and who follow prospects closely in the media have been ripping him.
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I'd be ecstatic if he fell that far and the Leafs had a shot at him. That said, I don't really see him slipping past pick 20 or so. 6'4 225 lb wingers who can score just don't fall that far.
 
Will be interesting to see where he's at come training camp because Carolina needs help and he's obviously physically ready. Should probably give him more time regardless but it's still intriguing.
 
TheOllieC said:
Will be interesting to see where he's at come training camp because Carolina needs help and he's obviously physically ready. Should probably give him more time regardless but it's still intriguing.
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He is only 1 year away from going to the AHL due to late 97 birthday
 
With the way the canes get pucks towards net, having a big kid with the hands to bury pucks around the net will work out wonderfully. Give him another year in the Q before moving him up to the AHL/NHL.
 
Really became intrigued when I heard he comes from a family of bodybuilders. Not that it will give him a genetic advantage but he will know how to push himself and properly work out, have discipline, awareness of diet etc. I'm hoping he has a big year, was ranked top 5 at one point , fell,now seems to be very underrated.
 
How has Gauthier looked this season? I've noticed he hasn't been scoring goals at the pace he was the past two seasons. Anyone who has watched him able to comment?
 
Sticks and Pucks said:
How has Gauthier looked this season? I've noticed he hasn't been scoring goals at the pace he was the past two seasons. Anyone who has watched him able to comment?
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Yeah on pace for 26 goals and 77 points over a full 68 game Q season. That's not really a step forward from previous seasons.
 
Daximus said:
Yeah on pace for 26 goals and 77 points over a full 68 game Q season. That's not really a step forward from previous seasons.
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He is one of several players that seem to be getting a free pass to WJC.
Better 1998 players out there.
He needs to be Top 6.
If not, no room at the bottom
 
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