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RW Brock Boeser - North Dakota, NCAA (2015, 23rd, VAN) II

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WTG said:
I'm with you, I've frequently said that Boeser is a supportive player, who can really shine if you put the right personnel next to him. That's what we are basically seeing.

Although, he's exceeding my expectations.
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I agree but you could say that about almost any snipers/Wingers in the nhl. They are not going to drive the line but they can make you pay when someone dishes them the puck and they get a good shot off. Its not really the type of game suited for those styles.
 
Eternalize said:
Writing that comment about Gersich out of context really tells the whole story. Good job.

Sorry for not having the time to stalk through everything you've ever said in this thread. Are you even serious? As you can probably see, i don't quite spend the same amount of time as you do on these boards. But that apparently makes me not able to read. Makes a lot of sense. You seems to like using that sentence without good reason.

The times i've seen you in this thread, it hasn't been anything but negative though. That has literally nothing to do with reading ability. Good for having said something great about him a couple of times out of a couple of dozen posts. Great job.
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Accuses me of never posting anything positive in this thread.

I show you several positive comments in this thread.

You cop out and now say you haven't been reading this thread.

It's amazing that you have the gall to accuse me of saying things I never said and only posting negative stuff without even bothering to read my posts.

And you wonder why I question your reading comprehension. Either that or you have an "alternative objective" in this thread.
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Accuses me of never posting anything positive in this thread.

I show you several positive comments in this thread.

You cop out and now say you haven't been reading this thread.

It's amazing that you have the gall to accuse me of saying things I never said and only posting negative stuff without even bothering to read my posts.

And you wonder why I question your reading comprehension. Either that or you have an "alternative objective" in this thread.
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I said I. I as in i. Never said that it was an actual fact. Is it you or i that have reading comprehension problems? You seems awfully sensitive. Or are you just trying to pull things to your advantage now? I have read the thread from time to time, not every single page though. Seen you a lot of times. Is there something wrong with that? You're daft if you expect every single poster to do that.

There's nothing to discuss here.
 
Whiskey makes some fair points, tbh. Hopefully Boeser can continue producing like he has been, though... But I wouldn't be too upset if his pace slows down a bit. His shooting percentage is pretty high right now.
 
Boeser's production is becoming more convincing with each game played this season. This is not to say I expect him to be over a PPG the entire season. But when you take into account he did have 4 goals in 9 games last season.

His ability to score goals has to be respected. 15 goals in his first 28 NHL games. These are Laine type numbers where Laine scored 16 goals in his first 28 NHL games. One has to consider Boeser as one of the more gifted goal scoring young fwds to come a long in a while.
 
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Boeser is tied for points with a Ovechkin and a bunch of others, but only 2 other 20 year olds - Austin Matthews and Mathew Barzal. Of this group at 22 points, Boeser and Matthews lead in PPG. Pretty impressive for both Barzal and Boeser.
 
Unbelievable talent. 3 points tonight. 4th multi goal game of the year. 25 points in 23 games.





 
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WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Brock has certainly been impressive, a much smoother transition than I expected. It's great to see his hard work paying off, you can tell he made a mission out of improving his skating and first step over the summer. Kid has got great character - awesome to see another young American forward seamlessly make the jump.

All that said, I'm not sure if I'm ready to adjust my expected value for Boeser's production level. Yes, he's been producing, but he's way over performing based on expected goals. Let's dig a bit deeper.

He's got an impressive 8g 12p at 5v5 and 3g and 9p on the PP.

At 5v5 he's been on the ice for 14 GF, but his 5v5 xGF is only 7.3. He's got 12p on those 14 goals, which means he should probably have closer to ~6 5v5 points.

Extended to all situations, he's been on the ice for 23 Vancouver goals and has a whopping 21 points! What's more is that the team's xGF over that stretch was only ~14.5.

Two things stick out to me:
1) Vancouver's GF output at 5v5 while Boeser is on the ice is due for significant regression, and probably a bit of a slow up on the PP as well.
2) Boeser's point share on these goals is also due for regression, as it's far from likely that he'll continue to get a point on 91-92% of Vancouver goals scored while he's on the ice.

The combination of the two above factors will likely result in a pretty significant fall off for Boeser as the season continues. Based on averages, he should probably have about ~5-7 goals ~11-14 points right now, with half of them coming on the PP. That's still great production, but it's also well before opponents have begun game planning around him and goaltenders have adjusted to his shot.

None of that is meant to discredit Brock, just to shed light on how early production can be misleading, especially for rookies. I previously predicted he'd have 18 goals and 35-40 points - with his hot start thus far I predict he'll end up with 24g 49p if he plays the rest of the season.
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I would challenge the usefulness of using xGF when evaluating elite high percentage shooters, which I absolutely believe he is. Have you seen his shot? It's unbelievable.

I'm not saying Boeser is Stamkos, but here are Stamkos's GF and xGF numbers for the last 7 years:

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Year[/TD][TD]xGF[/TD][TD]GF[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2017-2018[/TD][TD]16.39[/TD][TD]23[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2016-2017[/TD][TD]10.19[/TD][TD]14[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2015-2016[/TD][TD]36.09[/TD][TD]46[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2014-2015[/TD][TD]44.51[/TD][TD]57[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2013-2014[/TD][TD]21.54[/TD][TD]30[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2012-2013[/TD][TD]28.93[/TD][TD]39[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2011-2012[/TD][TD]50.78[/TD][TD]80[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

He's consistently batting ~40% higher GF than xGF over his entire career, which I'm sure in large part is due to his career 17% shooting percentage.

I wouldn't be shocked if Brock's shot settled in at a career number of somewhere around 15% and he routinely puts up significantly better GF numbers than xGF would predict, just like Stamkos - even if I don't foresee any 97p or 60g seasons like Stamkos put up.

Now, I do think he'll probably see some regression in xGF and some regression in his point share of goals scored while he's on the ice, but I think it's absurd to suggest that he should have only ~11-14 points right now.
 
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CloutierForVezina said:
I would challenge the usefulness of using xGF when evaluating elite high percentage shooters, which I absolutely believe he is. Have you seen his shot? It's unbelievable.

I'm not saying Boeser is Stamkos, but here are Stamkos's GF and xGF numbers for the last 7 years:

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Year[/TD][TD]xGF[/TD][TD]GF[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2017-2018[/TD][TD]16.39[/TD][TD]23[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2016-2017[/TD][TD]10.19[/TD][TD]14[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2015-2016[/TD][TD]36.09[/TD][TD]46[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2014-2015[/TD][TD]44.51[/TD][TD]57[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2013-2014[/TD][TD]21.54[/TD][TD]30[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2012-2013[/TD][TD]28.93[/TD][TD]39[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2011-2012[/TD][TD]50.78[/TD][TD]80[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
He's consistently batting ~40% higher GF than xGF over his entire career, which I'm sure in large part is due to his career 17% shooting percentage.

I wouldn't be shocked if Brock's shot settled in at a career number of somewhere around 15% and he routinely puts up significantly better GF numbers than xGF would predict, just like Stamkos - even if I don't foresee any 97p or 60g seasons like Stamkos put up.

Now, I do think he'll probably see some regression in xGF and some regression in his point share of goals scored while he's on the ice, but I think it's absurd to suggest that he should have only ~11-14 points right now.
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Where do you find his college stats? In particular his career SH%
 
WonderTwinsUnite said:
15/16 - 27 goals on 133 shots
16/17 - 16 goals on 113 shots (though it's been well-documented that he was playing with a bum wrist for much of the year)

17.47% overall, and that's with the wrist injury.
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I always felt like he was a meh prospect in college. Not getting hyped on him, but I'd forgotten he spent a lot of time with that wrist injury in the NCAA. More props to the guy for what he has been able to do so far.
 
WonderTwinsUnite said:
15/16 - 27 goals on 133 shots
16/17 - 16 goals on 113 shots (though it's been well-documented that he was playing with a bum wrist for much of the year)

17.47% overall, and that's with the wrist injury.
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Interesting, is there a site that keeps stats for college hockey?
 
the guy is unreal... I knew he was a real impressive prospect but he is completely surpassing my expectations this season.

Canucks have a extremely good player here. Must be real nice for Nucks fans to have him
 
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No not a good one at all.

Boeser is a trigger man with very high iq and above average playmaking skills. His skating is sub par but he makes up for it by being positionally sounds. Always on the right spot at the right time.

His shot is deadly and extremely accurate. A player comparison i would use on him is a better playmaking/shooting version of Mikael Sameulsson .

I know its not a sexy comparison but Samuelsson is a former 30 goal scorer in his own right ...
 
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