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RW Brock Boeser - North Dakota, NCAA (2015, 23rd, VAN) II

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Scorcho said:
take the L and move on, son
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Moving on is exactly what i did. Son. Nice seeing a fellow Devils fan joining in, adding absolutely nothing to the discussion.¨

Also nice to see it took you over a week to figure out that response after your previous post in this thread which was made after my post.
 
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Deen said:
I watch Calgary beat him regularily.
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Ah, a Flames fan.
That explains a lot.
He's definitely overrated though. Rookie of the month. One less point than Matthews so far this year and only played one more game. Right around the top 20 in points. And top rookie in points and goals.
 
archer cartridge said:
Boeser is 1-1 against the flames, a goal in the loss and an assist in the win, as well as 2 preseason game wins, while not the best indicator he got a goal in both games.

Not sure where you got the idea that the Flames beat Boeser regularly... he's 1-1 regular season, 3-1 lifetime, PPG with 3 goals.
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hes just a dumb flames fan. puts on the blinders on when it comes to boeser because hes scared of his superstar potential and scared of boeser being better than any of the flames players in the future.

he's way bigger than johnny and will thrive way better in the playoffs than johnny.
 
Yggdrasil said:
hes just a dumb flames fan. puts on the blinders on when it comes to boeser because hes scared of his superstar potential and scared of boeser being better than any of the flames players in the future.

he's way bigger than johnny and will thrive way better in the playoffs than johnny.
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Let's not be silly now. Johnny is 3rd in scoring, if Boeser ever gets there I will eat my hat. He's on the tail end of being top 30 in scoring right now.
 
Deen said:
Let's not be silly now. Johnny is 3rd in scoring, if Boeser ever gets there I will eat my hat. He's on the tail end of being top 30 in scoring right now.
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boeser is a rookie, johnny is not. so once he gets there where johnny is now, that'd be different.
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Brock has certainly been impressive, a much smoother transition than I expected. It's great to see his hard work paying off, you can tell he made a mission out of improving his skating and first step over the summer. Kid has got great character - awesome to see another young American forward seamlessly make the jump.

All that said, I'm not sure if I'm ready to adjust my expected value for Boeser's production level. Yes, he's been producing, but he's way over performing based on expected goals. Let's dig a bit deeper.

He's got an impressive 8g 12p at 5v5 and 3g and 9p on the PP.

At 5v5 he's been on the ice for 14 GF, but his 5v5 xGF is only 7.3. He's got 12p on those 14 goals, which means he should probably have closer to ~6 5v5 points.

Extended to all situations, he's been on the ice for 23 Vancouver goals and has a whopping 21 points! What's more is that the team's xGF over that stretch was only ~14.5.

Two things stick out to me:
1) Vancouver's GF output at 5v5 while Boeser is on the ice is due for significant regression, and probably a bit of a slow up on the PP as well.
2) Boeser's point share on these goals is also due for regression, as it's far from likely that he'll continue to get a point on 91-92% of Vancouver goals scored while he's on the ice.

The combination of the two above factors will likely result in a pretty significant fall off for Boeser as the season continues. Based on averages, he should probably have about ~5-7 goals ~11-14 points right now, with half of them coming on the PP. That's still great production, but it's also well before opponents have begun game planning around him and goaltenders have adjusted to his shot.

None of that is meant to discredit Brock, just to shed light on how early production can be misleading, especially for rookies. I previously predicted he'd have 18 goals and 35-40 points - with his hot start thus far I predict he'll end up with 24g 49p if he plays the rest of the season.
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Well, this goes into another "I was wrong" admission. Eye test told you he wasn't going to be more than a 20-20 player. Now stats told you he wasn't going to achieve more than 24 goals and 49 points.

I think you need to step back and evaluate whether or not you were simply a bit off on Boeser and were looking for reasons to validate your opinion, whether by how you saw him play or by statistics.
 
Aqualung said:
Well, this goes into another "I was wrong" admission. Eye test told you he wasn't going to be more than a 20-20 player. Now stats told you he wasn't going to achieve more than 24 goals and 49 points.

I think you need to step back and evaluate whether or not you were simply a bit off on Boeser and were looking for reasons to validate your opinion, whether by how you saw him play or by statistics.
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Certainly I overestimated how difficult his transition would be. I've already admitted as much.

His work ethic off the ice has paid huge dividends in improving his foot speed. He's still not "fast" but he's fast enough. I still have some skepticism on sustainable his rookie production will end up, but his shot is deadly, and he's done an excellent job finding the space to release it.
 
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WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Certainly I overestimated how difficult his transition would be. I've already admitted as much.

His work ethic off the ice has paid huge dividends in improving his foot speed. He's still not "fast" but he's fast enough. I still have some skepticism on sustainable his rookie production will end up, but his shot is deadly, and he's done an excellent job finding the space to release it.
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Respect to posters like this - obviously as a Canucks fan it feels good to see someone pump the tires of the best young player on my favorite team, but it also takes a man to recognize he was wrong which may sound very very ridiculous, but considering what I've seen on this site it's an accomplishment.

What does everyone else expect him to put up next year? I personally hope for a 45-35-80 season but a bit more realistically I'm expecting a 40-30-70 season out of him where he builds on his defensive play and skating, give or take 5 points.
 
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BoHorvat 53 said:
Respect to posters like this - obviously as a Canucks fan it feels good to see someone pump the tires of the best young player on my favorite team, but it also takes a man to recognize he was wrong which may sound very very ridiculous, but considering what I've seen on this site it's an accomplishment.

What does everyone else expect him to put up next year? I personally hope for a 45-35-80 season but a bit more realistically I'm expecting a 40-30-70 season out of him where he builds on his defensive play and skating, give or take 5 points.
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I'm guessing 34-25-59
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Certainly I overestimated how difficult his transition would be. I've already admitted as much.

His work ethic off the ice has paid huge dividends in improving his foot speed. He's still not "fast" but he's fast enough. I still have some skepticism on sustainable his rookie production will end up, but his shot is deadly, and he's done an excellent job finding the space to release it.
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I've been waiting a full year for this post from you whiskey. Bravo
 
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