GDT: RUS-CZE,GER-ITA @ 09:15AM EST ,BLR-SVK,CAN-LAT @ 1:15 PM EST

[SoundAndFury]

Are you willing to bet on this long-term? I will project the future production rates of select players in 21/22 based on NHLe, you have to name an acceptable margin of error.

Now, if you're saying that production rates as such are not a valid indicator of quality/talent, we're arriving at unfalsifiable-claims territory. And that is where any and all discussion becomes pointless, because you're just beginning to throw "he's better" vs. "no, he's not" type or arguments against each other like children.

If you take the decline into account, which is crucial when making projections about the future, I would be willing to trust it. But if you just take the production of x years add it up, divide it by x and call it a day saying "this is the player level", it's a performance evaluation over x years, not a projection.

There are of course other issues but when it comes to Latvian team this one is by far the biggest. Like LKI said, you have to be on crack to think Karsums in 2021 is better than Kenins, for example. He probably was 4 years ago, sure.

I mean at club level Karsums was so bad he was cut before the end of the regular season by the team which itself was historically bad.

 

[Namejs]

If you take the decline into account, which is crucial when making projections about the future, I would be willing to trust it. But if you just take the production of x years add it up, divide it by x and call it a day saying "this is the player level", it's a performance evaluation over x years, not a projection.

There are of course other issues but when it comes to Latvian team this one is by far the biggest. Like LKI said, you have to be on crack to think Karsums in 2021 is better than Kenins, for example. He probably was 4 years ago, sure.

It is weighted by age as follows
A yearly:
2.5% performance drop from age 30 until 34
3.5% performance drop from age 34 until 37
4.5% performance drop from age 37 until 40

Which makes, say, Karsums about 13% worse when compared to his peak.

 

[LKI]

Oh, and please note that you're implying that AHL-based kids with 30 points are better than players with NHL experience and AHL seasons with 70+ points on their resume. You're not saying they're about the same, you're saying they would not even fill their shoes. It doesn't sound very reasonable to me.

Okay, so you are basing your opinion on what? 5-10y.o historical data that is, again, not relevant any more.
"A yearly:
2.5% performance drop from age 30 until 34
3.5% performance drop from age 34 until 37
4.5% performance drop from age 37 until 40"

A performance drop % that (theoretically) can be applied to average player, but not one particular player. Again, not representing actual performance of a single player instead large group of players. If you are trying to evaluate a single player you have to use common sense.

 

[SoundAndFury]

It is weighted by age as follows
A yearly:
2.5% performance drop from age 30 until 34
3.5% performance drop from age 34 until 37
4.5% performance drop from age 37 until 40

Which makes, say, Karsums about 13% worse when compared to his peak.

Which is exactly the issue. We, by using the good old eyeball test, can see that number isn't even close to correct. And his very rapid decline in production backs the eye test. And maybe long-term he can even get into better shape and regain his former abilities a bit but since we are talking about the tournament happening today we know exactly how he is. We know how Bukarts is. We see how Darzins is doing.

If I had no familiarity with the players whatsoever and no resources (time or otherwise) to watch them play, sure NHLe is better than nothing. But it doesn't apply to players you watch daily and can make very self-evident conclusions.

Basically, NHLe is an ultimate stat watchers tool. It helps you put numbers into context if they would tell you nothing otherwise but other than that, stat watching is stat watching with all its inherent problems.

 

[Namejs]

Which is exactly the issue. We, by using the good old eyeball test, can see that number isn't even close to correct. And his very rapid decline in production backs the eye test. And maybe long-term he can even get into better shape and regain his former abilities a bit but since we are talking about the tournament happening today we know exactly how he is. We know how Bukarts is. We see how Darzins is doing.

If I had no familiarity with the players whatsoever and no resources (time or otherwise) to watch them play, sure NHLe is better than nothing. But it doesn't apply to players you watch daily and can make very self-evident conclusions.

Basically, NHLe is an ultimate stat watchers tool. It helps you put numbers into context if they would tell you nothing otherwise but other than that, stat watching is stat watching.

What did your eye test tell you about Canada? It sort of fell perfectly in line with NHLe yesterday. Some of their players were flat out worse and it has nothing to do with big ice or systems.

 

[Namejs]

Okay, so you are basing your opinion on what? 5-10y.o historical data that is, again, not relevant any more.
"A yearly:
2.5% performance drop from age 30 until 34
3.5% performance drop from age 34 until 37
4.5% performance drop from age 37 until 40"

A performance drop % that (theoretically) can be applied to average player, but not one particular player. Again, not representing actual performance of a single player instead large group of players. If you are trying to evaluate a single player you have to use common sense.

I only used the last 3-4 seasons for comparison. Which still makes Karsums better than some of the Canadian players. Just look them up, dude.

 

[SoundAndFury]

What did your eye test tell you about Canada? It sort of fell perfectly in line with NHLe yesterday. Some of their players were flat out worse and it has nothing to do with big ice or systems.

Has to do with confirmation bias I mean I'm not saying every Latvian is worse than every Canadian. In some cases, it's definitely close. But Karsums vs Paul is extremely not close at all whatsoever.

 

[Namejs]

Has to do with confirmation bias

Provide the criteria for falsifying my claims. This is not a very meaningful conversation otherwise.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Provide the criteria for falsifying my claims. This is not a very meaningful conversation otherwise.

I already did. You refuse to acknowledge that 35 y.o. Karsums being cut by the worst DEL team after scoring 0,4 PPG for it means what it means while having an extremely effective prime-age 2-way power forward who has scored roughly at the same pace in the NHL next to him.

And same goes for Bukarts. Even though you liked the post of a Czech guy explaining "the Extraliga factor" you still are trying to showcase him as an effective player. Even though he flat out isn't above a certain, at this point very well defined, level.

Hell, even it's not even about overrating Latvian guys or anything, Kenins is getting underrated by that ranking just the same.

 

[Namejs]

I already did. You refuse to acknowledge that 35 y.o. Karsums being cut by the worst DEL team after scoring 0,4 PPG for it means what it means while having an extremely effective prime-age 2-way power forward who has scored roughly at the same pace in the NHL next to him.

And same goes for Bukarts. Even though you liked the post of a Czech guy explaining "the Extraliga factor" you still are trying to showcase him as an effective player. Even though he flat out isn't above a certain, at this point very well defined, level.

Hell, even it's not even about overrating Latvian guys or anything, Kenins is getting underrated by that ranking just the same.

OK, so you're telling me that Karsums will not exceed his 20/21 NHLe, correct? He's done according to your eye test. Are you willing to bet on that? It is likely he will perform above this season's NHLe, as it clearly is an outlier. Players don't age overnight like pears.

Bukarts has been effective in KHL. His NHLe was only marginally lower there when compared to Extraliga.

 

[habsrule4eva3089]

So wait, are world championships still going to be played on an international ice surface going forward?

And yet next years Olympics is going to be on that stupid NHL size rink.

 

[SoundAndFury]

OK, so you're telling me that Karsums will not exceed his 20/21 NHLe, correct? He's done according to your eye test. Are you willing to bet on that? It is likely he will perform above this season's NHLe, as it clearly is an outlier. Players don't age overnight like pears.

Bukarts has been effective in KHL. His NHLe was only marginally lower there when compared to Extraliga.

How about you address what I'm actually telling instead of telling me what I'm telling? Karsums vs Nick Paul, what's your verdict? A close call? I already told you what I think about Karsums' future performance but it doesn't matter when it comes to the game played yesterday. And players do absolutely fall off the cliff. He isn't the first nor will he be the last. Furthermore, let's not act his decline wasn't gradual despite his stats lingering around the same level for a while.

Again the NHLe talk.. It's actually kinda maddening. He was released from Severstal, as in the team that was actually trying to achieve some goals, because he was useless. And it's nothing new to the Latvian hockey fans. Hockey isn't just about the points and NHLe, everyone knows it and understands it. That's why he is going back to the lower half of Extraliga. Because never mind getting another KHL contract, even Trinec cut him loose because he wasn't performing to their standards although I'm sure his NHLe was ok that season as well. And yes, I don't doubt both he and his brother had the highest NHLes in their career playing meaningless games for Riga last year, I hinted about it before already.

 

[LKI]

Oh, and please note that you're implying that AHL-based kids with 30 points are better than players with NHL experience and AHL seasons with 70+ points on their resume. You're not saying they're about the same, you're saying they would not even fill their shoes. It doesn't sound very reasonable to me.

"AHL-kids" I deliberately didn't bring in age into my assumptions, but since you did - 33 y.o Daugavins would have even lesser of a chance of being selected even though likely being better player than half of the team Canada. Again using common sense and ages of the players who were selected.

If we exclude player age from any consideration, Karsums would have very little chance to make the team IF he didn't have to compete with Daugaviņs, Ābols, Indrašis etc.
If Latvian forwards had to compete with Canadian WC forwards only few would have a CHANCE to be selected for the team. Definitely not 6 of them.
Just look them up dude.

 

[Namejs]

How about you address what I'm actually telling instead of telling me what I'm telling? Karsums vs Nick Paul, what's your verdict? A close call? I already told you what I think about Karsums' future performance but it doesn't matter when it comes to the game played yesterday. And players do absolutely fall off the cliff. He isn't the first nor will he be the last. Furthermore, let's not act his decline wasn't gradual despite his stats lingering around the same level for a while.

Again the NHLe talk.. It's actually kinda maddening. He was released from Severstal, as in the team that was actually trying to achieve some goals, because he was useless. And it's nothing new to the Latvian hockey fans. Hockey isn't just about the points and NHLe, everyone knows it and understands it. That's why he is going back to the lower half of Extraliga. Because never mind getting another KHL contract, even Trinec cut him loose because he wasn't performing to their standards although I'm sure his NHLe was ok that season as well. And yes, I don't doubt both he and his brother had the highest NHLes in their career playing meaningless games for Riga last year, I hinted about it before already.

So you're refusing to actually put it up for a valid experiment/test.

There's not much of a difference between Nick Paul and Karsums, especially if Karsums gets more limited ice time so he can stay fresh on his legs. Meaning that he would make this Canadian line-up on the 4th line without making it any worse, and easily so. Which is what I'm saying.

 

[SoundAndFury]

There's not much of a difference between Nick Paul and Karsums

Ok. I guess your hockey truly begins and ends with NHLe.

Also, I would be willing to put it to "valid test" had Karsums not signed with Dinamo. Which works great for you but as far as "valid" tests go makes it pointless.

 

[Namejs]

Ok. I guess your hockey truly begins and ends with NHLe.

Also, I would be willing to put it to "valid test" had Karsums not signed with Dinamo. Which works great for you but as far as "valid" tests go makes it pointless.

Choose any other player or 10 or a 100

 

[member 305909]

Everything seems to be upside down in this tournament. Nice! What next? Great Britain beats Russia?

 

[Namejs]

"AHL-kids" I deliberately didn't bring in age into my assumptions, but since you did - 33 y.o Daugavins would have even lesser of a chance of being selected even though likely being better player than half of the team Canada. Again using common sense and ages of the players who were selected.

If we exclude player age from any consideration, Karsums would have very little chance to make the team IF he didn't have to compete with Daugaviņs, Ābols, Indrašis etc.
If Latvian forwards had to compete with Canadian WC forwards only few would have a CHANCE to be selected for the team. Definitely not 6 of them.
Just look them up dude.

Are you really that dumb? We're not talking about changing the citizenship of Daugavins and seeing if he would get picked by Hockey Canada.

We're talking about a thought experiment in which Daugavins or any of the aforementioned 6 Latvian forwards gets dressed for Team Canada. And what I'm saying is that the quality of the Canadian forward corps would not drop if they were dressed.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Choose any other player or 10 or a 100

I mean we can just do it retroactively on some other player. There are tons of those. Gilbert Brule, for example from the top of my head, would be a lock for this Canadian team, no? Or someone like Paul Szczechura talking about Polish league stars. Although maybe he better exemplifies the "falling off the cliff" type of hockey player.

It's just sad that I'm the one who is supposed to prove how an obscure stat that has very obvious limitations can somehow be wrong in a particular case.

Basically every bad NHL contract destroys this "NHLe is always right, players don't just become bad" theory. Andrew Ladd and Scott Gomez approve.

 

[mosare]

I literally did NHLe based research on this.

6 Latvian forwards would make the Canadian top 12. So the overlap in quality is pretty obvious.

And, yes, a few Canadians would also not make the Latvian top 6.

So their defeat is really not that huge of an upset. It's no miracle on ice.

Big lol

 

[Namejs]

I mean we can just do it retroactively on some other player. There are tons of those. Gilbert Brule, for example from the top of my head, would be a lock for this Canadian team, no? Or someone like Paul Szczechura talking about Polish league stars. Although maybe he better exemplifies the "falling off the cliff" type of hockey player.

It's just sad that I'm the one who is supposed to prove how an obscure stat that has very obvious limitations can somehow be wrong in a particular case.

Basically every bad NHL contract destroys this "NHLe is always right, players don't just become bad" theory. Andrew Ladd and Scott Gomez approve.

We're not talking about NHLe in general, but about 6 very specific Latvian players, 2 or 3 of whom are not effective, according to you. This is what I don't agree with. I am using NHLe as a counter-argument.

We can even put aside NHLe and test it in some other way, if you wish. But the issue at hand isn't NHLe.

 

[LKI]

Are you really that dumb? We're not talking about changing the citizenship of Daugavins and seeing if he would get picked by Hockey Canada.

We're talking about a thought experiment in which Daugavins or any of the aforementioned 6 Latvian forwards gets dressed for Team Canada. And what I'm saying is that the quality of the Canadian forward corps would not drop if they were dressed.

Are you really explaining person who started the conversation about what we are talking about?
Not to mention you are the only one who even mentioned citizenship.
Lay off that good, good sh*t. You are living in an imaginary world of names and numbers.

If Latvian forwards had to compete with Canadian WC forwards only few would have a CHANCE to be selected for the team. Definitely not 6 of them.
This.

 

[SoundAndFury]

We're not talking about NHLe in general, but about 6 very specific Latvian players, 2 or 3 of whom are not effective, according to you. This is what I don't agree with. I am using NHLe as a counter-argument.

We can even put aside NHLe and test it in some other way, if you wish. But the issue at hand isn't NHLe.

So Krefeld cutting Karsums and Severstal cutting Bukarts (3rd time in his career he had to change teams mid-season due to being surplus to requirements) isn't a good enough argument? I don't really know what stronger arguments are there to be found. How does a player actively showcase his badness?

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Kivenieks starts tonight in net for Latvia

Kivlenieks.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Do you know more about the Latvian players?

I do