Rumour, Trade & Free Agent Discussion

[Oilpeg]

He doesn't look all that promising atm if you ask me. His first pro season was rather poor at both the AHL and NHL level. His NCAA production isn't all that amazing either for a forward.

I just don't see a history that suggests he's likely to produce enough to be a top 6 C.

It's that stupid first game hat trick plus shootout winner against the Leafs...I guess I can't see passed that.

 

[BatVader]

I don’t see the Habs moving out Suzuki. They had a huge hole at C for a long time and now that they have depth there, I don’t see them moving a young promising one out.
If they move anyone, it would be Domi, and they’d likely want a kings ransom for him.

Cirelli in Tampa is an option considering Tampa’s cap issues. We could either OS him with 5yr at 6M per yr, which would cost us a 2021 1st and 3rd, or we could trade for him with our 2021 1st + Niku + a young forward (+ another pick or picks). With their cap issues, cheaper young players and picks would likely be appealing to them. But I think this is the time to strike to get him.

Haula could be a good fall back option to sign off of FA, if nothing else pans out,
Ultimately, though, the upcoming expansion draft also comes into play for both the Jets and any team we are trading with, as players involved will need to be protected.

My choice would be to go after Cirelli first, then if that doesn’t work, either Domi or Haula.
I don’t see any other 2C’s being available.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think the Jets will be able to afford him under the cap. I think they'll put a much higher priority on signing DeMelo, especially if Little returns.

DeMelo is definitely a higher priority. How much do you expect him to get?

If we can't afford Eakin, then how are we going to afford Cirelli, or any other C?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Is Poehling only projected to be a 4th line center? That's surprising to me, I think he's better than that.

He certainly was projected higher than that. IDK what Habs think of him now but if he plays in the NHL next year there are at least 3 and probably 4 C's ahead of him. They have Danault, Domi, Suzuki and Kotkaniemi. So Domi could play wing and Poehling could play 4C. Based on his first pro year, 4C looks about right.

 

[ps241]

I think that both Wheeler and Maurice would prefer to have him at RW, with Scheifele to the most part.

A lot of the Jets future depends on Laine's development. Does he plateau at the level he showed this season, with more scoring? Or does he take another step or two forward as a line driver, to go along with his scoring? The same applies to Connor. Can he take a step forward in his play in his own zone to make him a more positive in tilting play?

If those two forwards take another step forward, then the need for a play driving 2C becomes less important. I'm still not convinced that the Jets can't use some combination of Little, Copp, Roslovic, Harkins in that role, if Laine can become a strong enough play driver to play on the 1st or 2nd line.

In the end, teams tend to have success at even strength in one of two ways: 1) have one overpowering line that out-scores their match-ups, and have the other three lines play at least even vs their match-ups (the Bruins model); 2) have a more balanced line-up, with each line out-scoring opponents.

Generally, top-echelon teams will out-score their opponents by around 30-40 goals at even strength. In 2017/18, Scheifele's line (mostly with Wheeler and Connor) was a net +20 or so at ES, Little and Stastny ended up around + 10 (together), and the rest of the lines were at around +10 (mostly driven by Lowry/Copp).

Going forward in the short-term future, I could see the Jets looking for something similar.

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler (find some good match-ups and expect that they can outscore by +15)
Ehlers-Little-Laine (further development by Ehlers and Laine, some softer match-ups, with Little providing D cover to get to +5)
Copp-Lowry-Roslovic (a healthy Lowry and some punch from Roslovic, tough match-ups, manage +5)
Perreault-Harkins-Appleton (a responsible, fast line with some punch that can outplay most 4th lines +5)

Continue a strong penalty differential and have a hefty advantage on special teams.

I think for the Jets to win a cup we are going to need Laine to take a big step forward to being clearly our best skater and I see that as a possibility. Once we stabilize our D core then I think we can get back to playing the more aggressive forecheck + D pinching down game that we employed in 2017-18.

 

[BatVader]

DeMelo is definitely a higher priority. How much do you expect him to get?

If we can't afford Eakin, then how are we going to afford Cirelli, or any other C?

Terminate Buff, Let Kulikov walk, Trade Perreault
That’s 16 mil, right there.

Hopefully Little retires, but if not, try to trade him or buy him out.

In total, 18 to 21M available.

OS Cirelli, 5yrs at 6M
Extend DeMelo 4yrs at 4M

That leaves money available to give Laine a raise and have some left over for incidentals.

This is based on a cap equal to this season of 81.5M

 

[surixon]

DeMelo is definitely a higher priority. How much do you expect him to get?

If we can't afford Eakin, then how are we going to afford Cirelli, or any other C?

I think the uncertainty due to COVID19 is really hamstringing GMs on making anything but low cap level signings.

If the cap stays flat I think DeMelo can get in around 3 to 3.5 million per. In a situation with a falling cap he might have to take substantially less.

If the Jets have an offer on the table for him he might be wise to accept it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Some rumours that the cap might be going down a long with player salaries and cap hits. Will be interesting to see what comes of it.

HRR for this season will certainly come up short of expectations. Money will have to be paid back by the players. But this disruption of the season doesn't mean that next year's HRR will be down. The cap is a projection of what next year's HRR will be. In normal circumstances it is based on the season just ended but this season is not a valid indicator, unless you expect another pandemic.

Next season's HRR could be affected by several things. First there is what they decide to do to end this season. If it overlaps with what would normally be next season there could be a loss of revenue for that season. Then there is the economic downturn that is coming. People won't have as much to spend on entertainment. That will be very difficult to estimate.

Just my guess, but I think that if next season is not disrupted off the bat, they will set the cap at the same as this year's, or maybe a small decrease. Teams that have the option may hesitate to spend all the way to the cap though, just in case.

If the cap goes down will they have a compliance buy-out again? When they did that after the lockout the drop in the cap was quite large. If they wanted to do that, would the CBA allow it? I suspect not. So they would need to re-open the CBA by mutual agreement to do it. Would the NHLPA cooperate?

 

[Buffdog]

Terminate Buff, Let Kulikov walk, Trade Perreault
That’s 16 mil, right there.

Hopefully Little retires, but if not, try to trade him or buy him out.

In total, 18 to 21M available.

OS Cirelli, 5yrs at 6M
Extend DeMelo 4yrs at 4M

That leaves money available to give Laine a raise and have some left over for incidentals.

This is based on a cap equal to this season of 81.5M

Little wont walk away from that contract, you can't buy out an injured player.

With the cap not going up as much as predicted due to drop in HRR, teams will be tight up against the cap. The sweetener that would have to be included to move little and/or frenchie would be prohibitive

 

[Daximus]

HRR for this season will certainly come up short of expectations. Money will have to be paid back by the players. But this disruption of the season doesn't mean that next year's HRR will be down. The cap is a projection of what next year's HRR will be. In normal circumstances it is based on the season just ended but this season is not a valid indicator, unless you expect another pandemic.

Next season's HRR could be affected by several things. First there is what they decide to do to end this season. If it overlaps with what would normally be next season there could be a loss of revenue for that season. Then there is the economic downturn that is coming. People won't have as much to spend on entertainment. That will be very difficult to estimate.

Just my guess, but I think that if next season is not disrupted off the bat, they will set the cap at the same as this year's, or maybe a small decrease. Teams that have the option may hesitate to spend all the way to the cap though, just in case.

If the cap goes down will they have a compliance buy-out again? When they did that after the lockout the drop in the cap was quite large. If they wanted to do that, would the CBA allow it? I suspect not. So they would need to re-open the CBA by mutual agreement to do it. Would the NHLPA cooperate?

I think at this point the NHL may co-operate just to get things rolling again. If they keep the cap the same or drop it I think a compliance buy-out would be the favourable route for Owners/GM's who knows if the PA will agree.

 

[BatVader]

Little wont walk away from that contract, you can't buy out an injured player.

With the cap not going up as much as predicted due to drop in HRR, teams will be tight up against the cap. The sweetener that would have to be included to move little and/or frenchie would be prohibitive

Frenchy can be moved without a sweetener. Might only get a 6th or 7th, but anything is better than nothing.
If Little is injured, he stays on the LTIR, saving us his cap. If he returns, we move him. He would might need a sweetener, depending on his health status after returning, though I could see a team being willing to take him for a 7th.
I’d rather get a 7th round pick then buying a player out

 

[Buffdog]

I'm getting a kick out of all the "yeah, I'd like to trade our tiny, former 7th round pick, one dimensional AHL allstar who hasn't proven anything at the nhl level defenseman and a 2nd round pick for your young 2C" proposals

Don't get me wrong, I think niku has upside. But who on OUR roster would you trade for a player like that and a 2nd?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

One issue is that any pending FA is likely going to demand is expansion draft protection.

I liked what Eakins brought but given his age and limited upside no way am I interested in guaranteeing a protection spot on him.

I'm also of the mindset that you either try to buy low on C with upside but has some risk associated with it like Patrick or you put some key chips into the pot and go after a proven good/young commodity.

I think the return on Patrick would be low enough that Philly will just keep him.

 

[BatVader]

I think the return on Patrick would be low enough that Philly will just keep him.

Agree.
I don’t think Philly is done with him, just yet.
But if he was available, I wouldn’t go near him. With his injury history added to his slow progression, it’s to much risk.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think at this point the NHL may co-operate just to get things rolling again. If they keep the cap the same or drop it I think a compliance buy-out would be the favourable route for Owners/GM's who knows if the PA will agree.

The NHLPA might very well go along with it, in order to get past this ....... mess. OTOH, they might fight it. Compliance buy-outs would not be in the best interests of those players bought out. Hard to say. Bought out players could still sign elsewhere for less money and in the end the players get 50% of HRR anyway.

I think the cap would have to actually drop. Staying flat would not justify a CBO. Those GM's in relatively good shape would not want to let the spendthrift teams off the hook.

 

[surixon]

The NHLPA might very well go along with it, in order to get past this ....... mess. OTOH, they might fight it. Compliance buy-outs would not be in the best interests of those players bought out. Hard to say. Bought out players could still sign elsewhere for less money and in the end the players get 50% of HRR anyway.

I think the cap would have to actually drop. Staying flat would not justify a CBO. Those GM's in relatively good shape would not want to let the spendthrift teams off the hook.

Will owners at the end of this even have sufficient cash available to buy out a bunch of players?

I think the easiest thing would be to roll back salaries across the board for one year and see how league revenues rebound.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agree.
I don’t think Philly is done with him, just yet.
But if he was available, I wouldn’t go near him. With his injury history added to his slow progression, it’s to much risk.

Yes, that's why the return would have to be too low to tempt Flyers. I mean I would give them a '22 4th rd pick.

 

[surixon]

Agree.
I don’t think Philly is done with him, just yet.
But if he was available, I wouldn’t go near him. With his injury history added to his slow progression, it’s to much risk.

The injury history is definitely a concern and that has likely impacted how quickly he has been able to adapt.

I don't think his progression when playing has been that slow given the fact that he has predominantly been used as a 3rd line center and his production has been in line with that role. I would imagine if given the green light health wise he would produce a decent amount more with our wingers in the top 6.

 

[surixon]

I think the return on Patrick would be low enough that Philly will just keep him.

That could depend on their cap situation. They have 69 million (45 million of that in forwards) tied up in contracts and will need to sign a good 5 forwards, 3 dmen and a backup goalie to flesh out their roster.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Will owners at the end of this even have sufficient cash available to buy out a bunch of players?

I think the easiest thing would be to roll back salaries across the board for one year and see how league revenues rebound.

That might be the smartest thing to do but it wouldn't be easy.

Freeze the cap and increase the escrow by a lot to accomplish the same thing. Then adjust to 50% HRR after next season ends. With luck, the players get a lot of that escrow money back. They will then have reasonable data to set the cap for the following year.

The players hate escrow but it is a good tool. Under these circumstances, I could see escrow at 33.33%. The players would be screaming but they would have to learn to understand. They get all they have coming to them in the end. It just isn't the number they thought they had signed for.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That could depend on their cap situation. They have 69 million (45 million of that in forwards) tied up in contracts and will need to sign a good 5 forwards, 3 dmen and a backup goalie to flesh out their roster.

Patrick's QO would be $832,500. Has he earned any more than that?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's that stupid first game hat trick plus shootout winner against the Leafs...I guess I can't see passed that.

He does have some talent and could take off in pro season 2. Or not. We couldn't afford to pay much for him on slim hope.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don’t see the Habs moving out Suzuki. They had a huge hole at C for a long time and now that they have depth there, I don’t see them moving a young promising one out.
If they move anyone, it would be Domi, and they’d likely want a kings ransom for him.

Cirelli in Tampa is an option considering Tampa’s cap issues. We could either OS him with 5yr at 6M per yr, which would cost us a 2021 1st and 3rd, or we could trade for him with our 2021 1st + Niku + a young forward (+ another pick or picks). With their cap issues, cheaper young players and picks would likely be appealing to them. But I think this is the time to strike to get him.

Haula could be a good fall back option to sign off of FA, if nothing else pans out,
Ultimately, though, the upcoming expansion draft also comes into play for both the Jets and any team we are trading with, as players involved will need to be protected.

My choice would be to go after Cirelli first, then if that doesn’t work, either Domi or Haula.
I don’t see any other 2C’s being available.

Don't think I'd be interested in Haula. We have as good or better already. Otherwise agree though.

But you never know who is available until you hear that they have been traded.

 

[surixon]

Patrick's QO would be $832,500. Has he earned any more than that?

His agent will likely try to get 2 to 2.5 million on a show me deal. Back to back seasons of third line production before this season is likely what they will be basing it on. Can't say that isn't in the ball park of what most bridge deals are for that level of production get.

Now Philly could play hard ball, but as a prior lottery pick and likely a player they view/viewed as a cornerstone piece they probably don't want to poison the relationship by taking a real hard line stance due to the migraine issue this past year.

 

[surixon]

Patrick's QO would be $832,500. Has he earned any more than that?

His agent will likely try to get 2 to 2.5 million on a show me deal. Back to back seasons of third line production before this season is likely what they will be basing it on. Can't say that isn't in the ball park of what most bridge deals are for that level of production get.

Now Philly could play hard ball, but as a prior lottery pick and likely a player they view/viewed as a cornerstone piece they probably don't want to poison the relationship by taking a real hard line stance due to the migraine issue this past year.