Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part X

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's funny how your perspective on the Stone signing "quickly changes" after dominating a team like Vegas, who we couldn't beat last year.

Do we need Stone at a "resign cost" of $ 9.5 -10 mil per year, and huge upfront bonus money, and lockout money guarantees.

I don't think so -- sign Hayes --see my last post as to why. Save a lot of money and future headaches. Be smart Chevy.

It is funny what 1 win will do. But it really is seeing our top 6 wingers healthy for the first time in quite a while.

I don't think Stone will cost quite that much. My guesstimate is 9-9.5, I think closer to the 9. Of course, that is with the customary 1 mil home town discount.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think at this point i'd rather offer the 1st-Stanley-Petan and ad another mid rnd pick for Hayes and Zuccarello. Maybe dangle Roslovic at the Canes for Pesce or to another team with a similar valued D.

Laine Cheff Wheeler
Connor little Ehlers
Perrault Hayes Zuccarello
Copp Lowry Tanev

Apples/Lemieux

That'd be great but I doubt Roslovic gets us Pesce unless there is a pretty strong add.

 

[Daximus]

It is funny what 1 win will do. But it really is seeing our top 6 wingers healthy for the first time in quite a while.

I don't think Stone will cost quite that much. My guesstimate is 9-9.5, I think closer to the 9. Of course, that is with the customary 1 mil home town discount.

The downside is Stone will likely have a lot of suitors and some from very wealthy teams that can front load the piss out of contracts. Something we have shown no inclination of doing. A team like the Habs has a lot of cap space coming up and can front load a contract with signing bonus money that we can't possibly out bid them. We will essentially have to hope Stone wants to win and be in Winnipeg long term to have any hope.

 

[Sachbash]

I'm not sure I see the value that Hayes adds to the team long term, even if he wanted to re-sign here. Scheif and Lowry are untouchable, which leaves Little and Hayes to fight for the 2c and 4c, and both of them are way too expensive to be a 4c long term. Even if Hayes is an improvement on Little, which is debatable, Little has an NMC I believe, and beyond that is a veteran player with this franchise. I just don't see Chevy trying to trade Little unless it is a HUGE upgrade, which certainly Hayes is not. If Hayes comes he is purely a rental IMHO, which I think makes him too expensive.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Flyers fans trying to give us Simmonds:

This amused me so much, I needed to share it here

 

[ecolad]

Think Dorion is making another big mistake here by trying to trade Dzingel before he finally trades Stone. I`m speculating here, but I don1t think that he`ll get anywhere near his well advertized price for Dzingel. this will only reinforce the view that this is a buyer`s market and that Dorion`s entire price structure is not realistic. Will probably lead to resistance to play the auction game at prices advertized for Stone. He should instead acelerate a decision for Stone - his prize jewel.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

It does seem like prices are trending down.

As expected.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Its a pipe dream for sure, but it wouldn't hurt to ask they are apparently hot and heavy over Kapenen/Johnsson. I think Roslovic holds as much long term value (possibly more if he reaches his celing). Add Comrie and another fwd prospect and maybe they bite?

I think both of those players rate a little higher than Roslovic. Not sure that they should, but that is another story. Also, you notice that Pesce hasn't been traded for one of them yet in spite of all the speculation.

If Chevy could get Pesce with Roslovic as the main piece, he should be all over that. I would have paid more than that for Pesce at any time during this season. Deal with a logjam at RD afterwards. Try Pesce on the left for the remainder of this season. Trade Myers. Whatever.

 

[KingBogo]

I'm not sure I see the value that Hayes adds to the team long term, even if he wanted to re-sign here. Scheif and Lowry are untouchable, which leaves Little and Hayes to fight for the 2c and 4c, and both of them are way too expensive to be a 4c long term. Even if Hayes is an improvement on Little, which is debatable, Little has an NMC I believe, and beyond that is a veteran player with this franchise. I just don't see Chevy trying to trade Little unless it is a HUGE upgrade, which certainly Hayes is not. If Hayes comes he is purely a rental IMHO, which I think makes him too expensive.

Welcome aboard.

 

[Sachbash]

Welcome aboard.

Thanks! Long time lurker.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah that's what I mean. Giving up a tonne of assets to try and beat out Tampa is a massive gamble. They still have a lot of good players left but they will be a shell of this years team when their 1LW, 1C and starter all walk this summer and giving up futures to try and do it.

Goalie Bob isn't even having a good year. And Korpisalo doesn't look like the long term answer either. Not based on this year's performance. That goaltending won't take them deep into the PO's.

 

[GNP]

The downside is Stone will likely have a lot of suitors and some from very wealthy teams that can front load the piss out of contracts. Something we have shown no inclination of doing. A team like the Habs has a lot of cap space coming up and can front load a contract with signing bonus money that we can't possibly out bid them. We will essentially have to hope Stone wants to win and be in Winnipeg long term to have any hope.

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I think this post hits the nail right on the head -- the other "big market" teams have a lot more cash to "front load contracts". with signing bonus money etc. I do not believe that TNSE ( Jets) have this kind of huge lump sum cash available.

 

[10Ducky10]

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I agree with your post -- but let's not forget that Staal is 35 yrs old, whereas Hayes is only 27 years old--"huge difference". Both would be good, but Hayes has viable long term utility for the Jets, and the Jet's want a trade rental they can "resign."

Staal has 141 points with 70 goals in the last two seasons.
Hayes has 90 points with 39 goals.

 

[Trinity]

_____________________________________________________

You have to consider that Hayes will score 60 points this year --that's as much as Connor, Ehlers or Laine will score. This guy is not chump change here, or just a replacement part -- "he can score." -- and he's a great size - 6'5 --220 lbs.

I mean value for the Jets.

 

[Daximus]

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I think this post hits the nail right on the head -- the other "big market" teams have a lot more cash to "front load contracts". with signing bonus money etc. I do not believe that TNSE ( Jets) have this kind of huge lump sum cash available.

I think they can. Team in their area of revenue do it and have done it. It's just I think the Jets are a little bit more frugal when it comes to player contracts. Opting to go a more traditional route.
The Jets are in that middle group of teams that turn a decent profit while still spending to the cap. Right in that Dallas, San Jose, Tampa, Calgary, St. Louis group. There really aren't any major differences between Calgary and Winnipeg when it comes to how we spend and compete. But they have a slight tax advantage over us.

 

[boydkc]

Is this sarcasm?

Have you watched him all year he looks like a peewee player trying to play junior. He tries hard but is real bad on his ass all the time little skill etc .

 

[garret9]

 

[cbcwpg]

If the price wasn't too high the deal would have been done already. Wait until Monday... let Dorion sweat a bit.

 

[None]

If this is actually the case I'm surprised there isn't any kind of resentment from Stone directed towards Melnyk for essentially dismantling the team's core that he developed with.

From the outside it looked like there was some kind of animosity between Melnyk and Karlsson, but that supposedly went back to not re-signing Alfredsson for his last lap season.

Follow-up tweets:

 

[garret9]

Have you watched him all year he looks like a peewee player trying to play junior. He tries hard but is real bad on his ass all the time little skill etc .

Perreault is still top 5 for Jets' forwards for impact on Corsi and xGoals... so he's gotta be doing something right.

Not his normal top 1-2 of old, but still good.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

1st in 2019, Vesalainen and Stanley too much?

Not enough, but I'd do that all day.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Mike Commodore is all over the deadline deals, folks..

 

[GeorgeJETson]

If the price wasn't too high the deal would have been done already. Wait until Monday... let Dorion sweat a bit.

"A process"? That sounds like Chevy's work

 

[Gil Fisher]

Not enough, but I'd do that all day.

Is this for Lindholm? I'd include Niku or Samberg if Hampus is coming the other way.

 

[GNP]

Staal has 141 points with 70 goals in the last two seasons.
Hayes has 90 points with 39 goals.

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I checked the stats last night, and their pretty much neck and neck and both trending for about 60 point seasons "this year". ( give or take) So Staal is in a period of slow decline, but still very good, especially at 35 years old.

Staal is the superior talent, as his numbers indicate that -- but what will they be in the next 2-3 years, and how much will he decline ?? That's the question.

Would you rather sign

Hayes for 6 years @ $ 6mil per year

OR

Staal for 2years @ 5 mil per year.

What would be the best route to take considering the above situation, and Staal's age. Would you still think Staal is the way to go here ???