Rumor: Rumors & Trade Proposals Thread | Post Mortem '23-24 Season: Who Should Stay, Who Should Go & Who Should We Bring In?

CupofOil

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Aug 20, 2009
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I’m not arguing dishonestly and I’m not ignoring your post. I just don’t think your argument is any good and it ignores the totality of Skinners performance in these playoffs.
I gave a 12 game sample size of almost flawless numbers (nearly half the games and all late in series in big moments) after you said that he was below average and the Oilers weak link the ENTIRE playoffs so you either ignored my post or are arguing dishonestly, I don't know how to put it any other way.
As I said before, I acknowledge that he had bad games but you can't acknowledge the many good games he had.
 

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
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Edmonton
And teams don’t comeback 3-0 in the SCFs since the 1940s but it happened. We were ONE game away with Stu backstopping this Cup Run. One game. And in a series where his save percentage and GAA was better than the other goalie. And it was also better than the other goalie in series prior.

You keep fixating on that one stat from the 1980s and think it means everything. Nah. How bout watch the games, know how the wins and losses happen, how all the goals happened, know the timeliness of the save. Put some brain power into and figure out what actually happened.

Maybe then you will have believed like Connor and the whole team did that they could win with Stu in net.

All that belief and yet in game 7 we ended up with the 2nd best goalie in net who gave up a garbage goal as the game winner.

We’ve got people seriously trying to argue with a straight face Skinner was better than Bobrovsky.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
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I’m not arguing dishonestly and I’m not ignoring your post. I just don’t think your argument is any good and it ignores the totality of Skinners performance in these playoffs.
Nah. Using the final save percentage is actually ignoring the totality of Skinners performance. You think that one stat tells the whole picture, it most obviously doesn’t as most single stats don’t. You can’t look at one number and decide what happened in one game any more than you can look at one number and decide what happened in an entire 23 game stretch.

It ignores context. It ignores whether Skinner was better or not than the other goalie at the other end of the ice. It ignores if goals against were even his fault. It ignores the play style or context of opponents like the Nucks who pretty much make every goalie look like a Seive stats-wise even Saros because they barely take shots and when they do it’s only on highest of danger chances. It ignores ability to bounce back after bad defensive or goaltending showings.
 
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TheNumber4

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All that belief and yet in game 7 we ended up with the 2nd best goalie in net who gave up a garbage goal as the game winner.

We’ve got people seriously trying to argue with a straight face Skinner was better than Bobrovsky.
I wouldn’t call it a garbage goal. But not surprised to hear you call it that. Since for you, only one number can tell you everything you need to know about a game or series. The gap Kulak gave up on that goal was egregious, similar f*** ups happen with Nurse. Kulak let an elite goal scorer, 3rd best in the League, to walk in and pick a spot. Skinner should get the majority of these still, but not every single one. Skinner did make a bunch of these types of saves during the series as well. This is a case of not enough big saves at the very worst but not a bad goal. Besides again looking at one goal ignores the entire game. Like the fact that it was a 2GAA and winnable. We had our looks too, it’s not like this game wasn’t winnable.

You’re using save percentage to say everything about Skinner’s performance these playoffs. But won’t use it in a series where Skinner had the better save percentage? Makes little sense to me.
 
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Spawn

Something in the water
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Edmonton
I gave a 12 game sample size of almost flawless numbers (nearly half the games and all late in series in big moments) after you said that he was below average and the Oilers weak link the ENTIRE playoffs so you either ignored my post or are arguing dishonestly, I don't know how to put it any other way.
As I said before, I acknowledge that he had bad games but you can't acknowledge the many good games he had.
Maybe I can put it a different way.

When you have as many bad games as you do good games as a goalie you aren’t playing well enough.
 

TheNumber4

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Nov 11, 2011
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On McD and Drai staying. Think about it, if it was about Winning, and it is for these two, there’s very few teams if any that can realistically take them on and offer as close to an opportunity at a Cup than these Oilers with this long term core. Add Broberg and Holloway, which i think is now safe to say will be further improvements on the core and there’s plenty of reasons for them to stay. If it comes down to winning.

I also think, that this is the team Connor built on some level. These are the guys he chose to win with on some level. Guys he’s best friends with too. A coach he seems to really like. And an executive that mentored him every step of the way of his hall of fame career. You could argue Connor’s got his own coach and GM here. No other team can offer that.
 

Oilhawks

Song to Hall Up High
Nov 24, 2011
27,613
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On McD and Drai staying. Think about it, if it was about Winning, and it is for these two, there’s very few teams if any that can realistically take them on and offer as close to an opportunity at a Cup than these Oilers with this long term core. Add Broberg and Holloway, which i think is now safe to say will be further improvements on the core and there’s plenty of reasons for them to stay. If it comes down to winning.

I also think, that this is the team Connor built on some level. These are the guys he chose to win with on some level. Guys he’s best friends with too. A coach he seems to really like. And an executive that mentored him every step of the way of his hall of fame career. You could argue Connor’s got his own coach and GM here. No other team can offer that.

I agree with regards to Connor. I feel that Seravalli is right with his suggestion that all three sign for $40M (including Bouchard), unless Leon feels that he wants to try being “the guy” on another team. Possible, but I don’t think so.

Broberg and Holloway will be good additions to the core, but I wonder if they feel the need to push for another top 6 winger and upgrade at RD to feel good about their chances next year. There is definitely room for improvement.

Needs:

Gritty 3C (Henrique or look elsewhere)

5 bottom 6 players with versatility (Brown, Janmark potential internal options, perhaps a callup or two to test drive like another shot for Hamblin, Philp?). IMO Ryan gets sent down as a vet callup

Top 6 winger (two if they move on from Kane)

Top 4 RD (needs to be an external addition, I’d like to see Broberg play on his natural side even though he was good on his off)

Cap out (not including UFAs that won’t be re-signed like Foegele)

Campbell
Ceci
Kulak (maybe just one of these two if they can fit Kulak still)
Kane (if they feel he won’t be healthy enough and need the cap)
McLeod (probably keep him but could be a surprise move)

I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4 of the 5 listed above gone by the start of the season
 
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McTonyBrar

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.901 sv% isn't fantastic anyway you cut it.

He was responsible for the only loss against LA.
He single handily almost cost us the Vancouver series
He was responsible for one of the 2 losses against Dallas
He was responsible for the game 3 loss against Florida
Gave up a backbreaker goal in game 7 in what ended up a 2-1 game.

At best Skinner was below average. Realistically he was arguably the teams weakest link all playoffs long.

I disagree big time with this. Man poor Skinner still gets hated on this much?

I beg you to tell me which of the 4 or 5 games Skinner was better than Bobrovsky in the series lmao.
Dude are you friggin drunk???
 
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McTonyBrar

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No, I don’t refuse to give him credit for good games. I’m taking into account his entire playoffs.

.901 save percentage from a starter hasn’t won a cup since the 1980s. Newsflash, games 1-3 are just as important as games 4-7.

You have to know you’re grasping at straws when you’re trying to argue that Skinner had anything to do with an 8-1 win in game 4.
I think you are grasping at straws..
 

Kolja

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Oct 30, 2011
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The biggest thing this off season is to move Nurse.

If you are a young team building for the future and where offered a veteran with 1D potential and with vast play-off experience for free. I would bet some teams would take that.
 
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Pucklington

Expat in Germany.
Mar 24, 2008
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The biggest thing this off season is to move Nurse.

If you are a young team building for the future and where offered a veteran with 1D potential and with vast play-off experience for free. I would bet some teams would take that.

I was thinking the best thing they could do is bring in a stabilizer for Nurse, like with Bouchard.

Better use of cap.
 

Sniper99

Registered User
Jan 12, 2011
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I beg you to tell me which of the 4 or 5 games Skinner was better than Bobrovsky in the series lmao.
Uhh well how about games 4,5 and 6. Did the Panthers chase Skinner from the net in any of the games Panthers won? and was right there with Bob in Game 7 yes the tipped shot went in but not even your boy wonder Shesterkin was stopping that nor is there a guarantee he wouldve stopped the game winning goal. "back to back champions? Just get one cup, stop the nonsense.
 
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Burnt Biscuits

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May 2, 2010
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No, I don’t refuse to give him credit for good games. I’m taking into account his entire playoffs.

.901 save percentage from a starter hasn’t won a cup since the 1980s. Newsflash, games 1-3 are just as important as games 4-7.

You have to know you’re grasping at straws when you’re trying to argue that Skinner had anything to do with an 8-1 win in game 4.
That's an arbitrary line to set given that Darcy Kuemper just won a few years ago with a 0.902, also the general trend line in the NHL is a collapsing sv% and scoring going up, so people need to recalibrate their internal sv% expectations.

I also think it is fairer to Skinner to breakdown his sv% series by series:

Skinner vs. LA sv%= 0.910
Skinner vs VAN sv%= 0.833
Skinner vs DAL sv%= 0.922
Skinner vs FLA sv%= 0.909

So that is 2 relatively good save percentages, 1 excellent, and 1 horrifically bad and in the series we needed him to be good he was good. For a goalie making $2.6M it's really hard to complain about that level of performance.
 

Sniper99

Registered User
Jan 12, 2011
12,774
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Edmonton
No, I don’t refuse to give him credit for good games. I’m taking into account his entire playoffs.

.901 save percentage from a starter hasn’t won a cup since the 1980s. Newsflash, games 1-3 are just as important as games 4-7.

You have to know you’re grasping at straws when you’re trying to argue that Skinner had anything to do with an 8-1 win in game 4.
Well its clear you completely forgot that he made the huge glove save on the 2 on 1 to stop Florida from tying it at 2-2. If that goes in its probably a completely different ball game. That save was huge and it gave the oilers a spark they needed to keep firing at Bob and eventually chased him.
 

Kolja

1-5-6-14
Oct 30, 2011
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I was thinking the best thing they could do is bring in a stabilizer for Nurse, like with Bouchard.

Better use of cap.
Sure, but before that we have to understand what Nurse is. Perhaps even more challenging, HE has to understand what he is and play accordingly.

He has all the tools, but lacks in understanding how to use them. Keep his tasks simple. No pinching. No one-kneeing. Keep opponents on the outside. Give the puck to your partner if you happen to get a hold of it.
 
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Burnt Biscuits

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May 2, 2010
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Reading this thread I think people are vastly underestimating the impact of Henrique's IQ. That third line made the series close. If we are trying to win, the 3rd line was one of the main reasons we were winning. If the new GM doesn't focus on reuniting this line they made a big mistake imo


Also, if there is no options, it's time to buy-out Darnell Nurse. I feel better about paying 1.5 in dead cap space for 30 years than the chances of Nurse turning it around next season. Broberg needs play top 4 LD, and we need immediate cap space to plug holes.


As gross as it is, buying out both Campbell and Nurse makes us a better team next season. We have to go all in next year
I appreciated Henrique's IQ and complete game a lot and I agree the 3rd line did a ton to help us claw our way back into that FLA series, though I will say Henrique is a bit slow and I think stylistically we need to try and become either a faster team or stronger along the boards to give ourselves a better chance at the Cup, essentially prioritizing winning more puck battles over smarts.

Also I do not at all expect Janmark to play at a 3rd line level for the vast majority of the season, that was him finding his extra gear in a time of need, he's still very much a 4th liner in my eyes.

As for buying out Nurse that is crazy, buy-out terms are horrendous and Broberg playing top 4 D isn't something we should go into next season banking on if we are serious about winning a Cup.
 

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
43,972
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Edmonton
That's an arbitrary line to set given that Darcy Kuemper just won a few years ago with a 0.902, also the general trend line in the NHL is a collapsing sv% and scoring going up, so people need to recalibrate their internal sv% expectations.

I also think it is fairer to Skinner to breakdown his sv% series by series:

Skinner vs. LA sv%= 0.910
Skinner vs VAN sv%= 0.833
Skinner vs DAL sv%= 0.922
Skinner vs FLA sv%= 0.909

So that is 2 relatively good save percentages, 1 excellent, and 1 horrifically bad and in the series we needed him to be good he was good. For a goalie making $2.6M it's really hard to complain about that level of performance.
So Skinner was almost, but not quite, as good as a Kuemper who was all but blind in one eye during that run. A run that their backup was a perfect 6-0 with better numbers than either of them.

And I disagree with the notion that in the series we needed him to be good he was good. We needed him to be good in game 3. We needed him to be good in game 7 and he gave up a back breaker with 5 minutes left in the 2nd.

We need more from a starting goalie. Skinner is young and maybe can get there. Maybe as soon as next season. But in these playoffs? Our goaltending wasn’t enough.

And just to counter @CupofOil and his numbers regarding Skinner late in each series: Here are Skinners numbers in games 1-3 in these playoffs: 4 wins, 8 losses, 0.867 save percentage.

He shit his pants through the front half of every series. Set the Oilers behind the ball every single time forcing the Oilers to play catchup in every series after the first round.

So yes, I maintain my assertion that he was at best below average and realistically the weakest link in this run.
 
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Dazed and Confused

Ludicrous speed, GO!
Aug 10, 2007
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Seeing as McDavid, Kane, and maybe Drai are all in line for off-season surgery, I wonder if they should prioritize getting some proven goalscoring or play driver.


Guentzel, Debrusk, Teravainen, and Toffoli are going to get longer-term deals, but I could see a few guys like Mantha, Arvidsson, Pacioretty, and Perron ending up unsigned towards the end of summer and being willing to accept a cheaper 1-year deal.


Or is it better to (finally) give the kids a shot to see what they can do, and/or maximize cap space going into the deadline to nap a big fish at that point?

Taylor Hall reunion at the TDL anyone? :sarcasm:
 

cruisecity

Registered User
May 24, 2024
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So Skinner was almost, but not quite, as good as a Kuemper who was all but blind in one eye during that run. A run that their backup was a perfect 6-0 with better numbers than either of them.

And I disagree with the notion that in the series we needed him to be good he was good. We needed him to be good in game 3. We needed him to be good in game 7 and he gave up a back breaker with 5 minutes left in the 2nd.

We need more from a starting goalie. Skinner is young and maybe can get there. Maybe as soon as next season. But in these playoffs? Our goaltending wasn’t enough.

And just to counter @CupofOil and his numbers regarding Skinner late in each series: Here are Skinners numbers in games 1-3 in these playoffs: 4 wins, 8 losses, 0.867 save percentage.

He shit his pants through the front half of every series. Set the Oilers behind the ball every single time forcing the Oilers to play catchup in every series after the first round.

So yes, I maintain my assertion that he was at best below average and realistically the weakest link in this run.
I don't think Skinner is capable of being better. It's like putting me in there and being pissed off I'm not playing to the level that HHOF level goaltenders do.

Skinner is a milquetoast non-athlete guy who schemed his way into the league, overcame his lack of genetics with modern positional training and does it well. He isn't a goaltender. He isn't acrobatic. We'll never get more than this out of him. That's not his fault.
 

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