Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

[K1984]

You also cant force players to sign a PTO with you.

It's no surprise that people who are used to the area are willing to sign a PTO here.

And if your a player of any perceived quality you’re probably going to try and go to a shittier team with more roster holes that will give you a better chance to actually make the team and a better chance of actually having a role on that team that will allow you to advance your career.

 

[FlameChampion]

Adam Erne - Former Red Wing
Sam Gagner - Former Oiler
Drake Caggiula - Former Oiler
Brandon Sutter - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid
Lane Pederson - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid
Colton Sceviour - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid
Jake Virtanen - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid

Do the Oilers have a Type? Seems like most PTOs we try somone in the braintrust has direct familiarity with or we seen them good as a WHL prospect. Or maybe the Oilers scouting staff are just lazy and underfunded?

Brad Holland, Jeff Jackson, and Rick Pracey need to hire more scouts. And preferably they'd look elsewhere besides Western Canada all the time.

I think Hollands approach has been to assemble a team that wants to play here and who gets along.

I think it’s a good strategy for a Canadian market. I look at teams like Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver etc and they could probably learn something from Holland.

But with this offseason, its pretty head scratching from me. I think its swung too far the other way. It doesn’t feel like we are trying to bring in good players. We already have heard that the leadership core is against moving certain players.

We will see. At the end of the day, we are talking about fringe players so its probably not that big of a deal.

But on the other hand, for a team that is supposed to be a contender, it feels like we’re not trying to build the best team we can.

Or maybe guys don’t want to sign here. I’ve heard Seravalli say that Edmonton is a desirable market for players to sign in. But it doesn’t feel that way or maybe were just not trying.

 

[TheNumber4]

You also cant force players to sign a PTO with you.

It's no surprise that people who are used to the area are willing to sign a PTO here.

No but you can try and fail at signing them. Is that what’s going on with our PTOs or does the organization just have tunnel vision?

 

[McSuper]

Yeh he said it after considering Kenny’s negotiation and rejecting it. Of course he’s saying shit like that after taking another teams offer over ours.

This is shit. Larsson said Edmonton reminded him of his dad dying but let blame Holland for that

 

[Fourier]

Seriously there are people saying that Tatar at $1.5 million is a bad signing? He's a similar offensive player to Brown at ~40% of the cap hit. Yes Brown is likely the better all around player, but this guy is making basically 4th liner $ and is a lock for 40-50 points.

I think it is a very good signing for Colorado given that they have taken a hit on their depth in terms of skilled forwards. But Tatar and Brown are very different players. Tatar is the better offensive player . However, when Tatar is not scoring he is a significant liability. That's why he tends to have a short shelf life with teams. I think it is also why he has had so little success in the playoffs. He is very much a perimeter player.

 

[McShogun99]

Adam Erne - Former Red Wing
Sam Gagner - Former Oiler
Drake Caggiula - Former Oiler
Brandon Sutter - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid
Lane Pederson - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid
Colton Sceviour - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid
Jake Virtanen - Former Good Ol Western Canadian Kid

Do the Oilers have a Type? Seems like most PTOs we try somone in the braintrust has direct familiarity with or we seen them good as a WHL prospect. Or maybe the Oilers scouting staff are just lazy and underfunded?

Brad Holland, Jeff Jackson, and Rick Pracey need to hire more scouts. And preferably they'd look elsewhere besides Western Canada all the time.

Vegas just won a Cup with the most Western Canadian players in the league. Can’t go wrong trying to win a Cup with mostly Canadian players.

 

[walktheboulavard]

Apparently Bourgault is looking good and has bulked up a bit.

https://x.com/TonyBrarOTV/status/1701653653944467465?s=20

I am assuming this is the captains skate, I don't believe rookie camp has kicked off yet?

With added size and plus skating he might prove hard to keep off the team. This team could use a feel good story with Bourgault panning out. Consider it a Tyler Wright going away present.

Obviously this is the time of the year where everyone looks good and we read too much into things. Having said that, how good does this team look if guys like Bourgault, Holloway and Lavoie play their way into the lineup? We could roll four really good lines:

RNH-McDavid-Brown
Kane-Draisaitl-Bourgault
Hyman-McLeod-Lavoie
Foegele-Holloway-Janmark

No kidding. Easy to be overcome with apprehension given this teams recent history around hopefuls this time of year. So I'll probably be a little reserved this year, but would not be surprised at all if he delivers.

Actually like the look of that line up. I would switch Hyman for Brown though as Hyman is the better player then move Lavoie over the LW as that's the position he played in Bako I believe.

 

[McDNicks17]

I think it is a very good signing for Colorado given that they have taken a hit on their depth in terms of skilled forwards. But Tatar and Brown are very different players. Tatar is the better offensive player . However, when Tatar is not scoring he is a significant liability. That's why he tends to have a short shelf life with teams. I think it is also why he has had so little success in the playoffs. He is very much a perimeter player.

I wouldn't say that. He had insanely good defensive metrics last season and he's been close to a 60% xGF player three of the last four seasons. One of the more underrated possession players out there.

 

[TheNumber4]

I think Hollands approach has been to assemble a team that wants to play here and who gets along.

I think it’s a good strategy for a Canadian market. I look at teams like Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver etc and they could probably learn something from Holland.

But with this offseason, its pretty head scratching from me. I think its swung too far the other way. It doesn’t feel like we are trying to bring in good players. We already have heard that the leadership core is against moving certain players.

We will see. At the end of the day, we are talking about fringe players so its probably not that big of a deal.

But on the other hand, for a team that is supposed to be a contender, it feels like we’re not trying to build the best team we can.

Or maybe guys don’t want to sign here. I’ve heard Seravalli say that Edmonton is a desirable market for players to sign in. But it doesn’t feel that way or maybe were just not trying.

I think you’re right that that’s part of the Oilers strategy. Whether by design or necessity. It makes some sense, but it also needs to be balanced with just icing the best team you can.

The Oilers went out of their wheelhouse a bit with the Kostin trade. Uncovering a very good player for us, that ultimately we couldn’t resign. Good player to use as an example of this dynamic at play.

That’s my fear too, that the Oilers are swung too far in this direction. That we are now defaulting to these local or known players, making EASY signings as opposed to going for the BEST possible signings.

I heard the Serravelli and Stauffer proclamations of being a place where players want to play too. But if true, I’m not seeing a lot of the fruits of that narrative. McDavid did increas our attractiveness though I guess, Lucic, Hyman, and now Brown can be seen as McDavid effect gets. But it doesn’t feel like much, and still feels like we’re looking for scraps in free agency.

 

[FlameChampion]

Obviously this is the time of the year where everyone looks good and we read too much into things. Having said that, how good does this team look if guys like Bourgault, Holloway and Lavoie play their way into the lineup? We could roll four really good lines:

RNH-McDavid-Brown
Kane-Draisaitl-Bourgault
Hyman-McLeod-Lavoie
Foegele-Holloway-Janmark

As unimpressed as I am with the fringe forward signings and the PTO’s, I really hope that maybe there are some forward prospects that will be better than we think. It would be nice to see Holloway, Lavoie and Borgault have an impact this year.

 

[TheNumber4]

Vegas just won a Cup with the most Western Canadian players in the league. Can’t go wrong trying to win a Cup with mostly Canadian players.

True and Good point, but they also had the best starting point of any NHL franchise in history, have the best free agency attractiveness in the League, and pulled off two monster deals to build their team acquiring both a franchise 1D and 1C through trade.

I’m not necessarily against Western Canadian players, more so my point is that the Oilers don’t show many signs of being a team that looks under every rock, that exhausts all options, that has its scouting tentacles in all parts of the hockey world. And that’s concerning to me. That’s the type of organization the Oilers need to strive to be if we ever want a chance to compete against teams like Vegas and all their inherent advantages. We should have MORE scouts and MORE analytics guys than other teams to make up for our disadvantages, instead we seem to be doing the bare minimum.

Hopefully Jackson changes that. He’s speaking like he realizes the issue and is on his way to correcting it.

 

[nexttothemoon]

The way I look at the PTO guys is this...

Would a 4th line of Erne-Sutter-Gagner (all at league minimum) be a decent NHL 4th line?

Ya I think it definitely would.

If (and it's a big if admittedly) Sutter can play like he did in Vancouver... as a depth defensive centre who can pot 10+ goals, that's a decent asset. He's 34 and doesn't play a tough punishing style so I don't think his body will cause his play to necessarily fall off that badly IF indeed the long-term covid issues are behind him.

Gagner is basically a known commodity at this point... decent depth winger with some speed/defensive issues but he still has some hands and can pot 10+ goals in the bottom 6 as well. At 34 I don't think his body is necessarily "done" either.

Erne is the youngest and maybe the guy with still a bit of upside at 28... but even if you get the Detroit version without any more advancement... that's also a guy that can likely pot 10+ playing in the bottom 6. His defensive warts in Detroit also in large part could be because Detroit hasn't exactly been a very good team the last 4 years he's played there either.


In the end those 3 guys have over 2100 games of NHL experience and if you can add 1 or 2 or even all 3 as insurance depth on the team... I don't see any issues with that when they'll likely all be league minimum contracts that can be fully buried in the AHL as needed.

 

[Fourier]

I wouldn't say that. He had insanely good defensive metrics last season and he's been close to a 60% xGF player three of the last four seasons. One of the more underrated possession players out there.

I think that these numbers are more reflective of who he played with. NJD last year was a great possession team and he was playing much of his time over the last 2 years with Hischier who is a very good two way center, and a lot with some very good defensive defensemen. In Montreal he was mostly stapled to Danault in 2020-21. His numbers away from Danault are not the same. In his two years with Montreal his GF% with Danault was 63.03% and away from Danault was 31.58%. xGF% was definitely better but not at the same level as with Danault. In Jersey away from HIschier and Siegenthalar in 780 minutes he had a GF% of 39.06%. With none of the three on the ice the GF% was 50.16. Again the xGF% was higher but the bottom line is that his defensive metrics look teammate dependent to me.

He is a pretty soft player though very skilled. I think he would have been a very good add to the Oilers since he could have freed up someone to play on the third line.

 

[nexttothemoon]

It's interesting that Brandon Sutter... certainly not known for his offense... has 18 pts and is +3 in 50 playoff games... and Tatar has 13 pts and is -14 in 52 playoff games.

If Brandon Sutter is anywhere near what he used to be a few years ago... he's likely the more valuable player overall.

 

[McDNicks17]

I think that these numbers are more reflective of who he played with. NJD last year was a great possession team and he was playing much of his time over the last 2 years with Hischier who is a very good two way center, and a lot with some very good defensive defensemen. In Montreal he was mostly stapled to Danault in 2020-21. His numbers away from Danault are not the same. In his two years with Montreal his GF% with Danault was 63.03% and away from Danault was 31.58%. xGF% was definitely better but not at the same level as with Danault. In Jersey away from HIschier and Siegenthalar in 780 minutes he had a GF% of 39.06%. With none of the three on the ice the GF% was 50.16. Again the xGF% was higher but the bottom line is that his defensive metrics look teammate dependent to me.

He is a pretty soft player though very skilled. I think he would have been a very good add to the Oilers since he could have freed up someone to play on the third line.

He did pretty well away from Hischier last year. 63.6% GF/60.3% xGF away from him. Hischier dropped to 47.7%/53.2% without him.

He seems to always end up with a matchup center no matter where he goes. I don't think that's a coincidence. Larkin to Karlsson to Danault to Hischier. I won't be surprised if Drouin bombs and he ends up on MacKinnon's wing.

 

[McShogun99]

True and Good point, but they also had the best starting point of any NHL franchise in history, have the best free agency attractiveness in the League, and pulled off two monster deals to build their team acquiring both a franchise 1D and 1C through trade.

I’m not necessarily against Western Canadian players, more so my point is that the Oilers don’t show many signs of being a team that looks under every rock, that exhausts all options, that has its scouting tentacles in all parts of the hockey world. And that’s concerning to me. That’s the type of organization the Oilers need to strive to be if we ever want a chance to compete against teams like Vegas and all their inherent advantages. We should have MORE scouts and MORE analytics guys than other teams to make up for our disadvantages, instead we seem to be doing the bare minimum.

Hopefully Jackson changes that. He’s speaking like he realizes the issue and is on his way to correcting it.

We’ll never have the advantages that a team like Vegas has. Once Mcdavid leaves or retires we’ll just be another Winnipeg. Because of that I agree that we need more amateur and pro scouts and employees in any area that will help us find talent.

 

[McDNicks17]

It's interesting that Brandon Sutter... certainly not known for his offense... has 18 pts and is +3 in 50 playoff games... and Tatar has 13 pts and is -14 in 52 playoff games.

If Brandon Sutter is anywhere near what he used to be a few years ago... he's likely the more valuable player overall.

Sutter hasn't scored more than 1 goal in a playoff run in 10 years. I think that ship has sailed.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Sutter hasn't scored more than 1 goal in a playoff run in 10 years. I think that ship has sailed.

Well 6 years with the Canucks and 2 years of long Covid doesn't exactly pump up the playoff numbers.

Sutter has 6 pts in his last playoff run... Tatar has 6 pts COMBINED in his last 4 playoff runs (35 games).


If indeed long Covid has taken it's toll on Sutter then I agree he's likely done... but no harm in a PTO to see if that's actually the case.

Sutter has worn an "A" with three different NHL teams as well... shows that he has some decent leadership/character which is a good trait as a bottom 6/depth forward as well.

 

[McTonyBrar]

I think you’re right that that’s part of the Oilers strategy. Whether by design or necessity. It makes some sense, but it also needs to be balanced with just icing the best team you can.

The Oilers went out of their wheelhouse a bit with the Kostin trade. Uncovering a very good player for us, that ultimately we couldn’t resign. Good player to use as an example of this dynamic at play.

That’s my fear too, that the Oilers are swung too far in this direction. That we are now defaulting to these local or known players, making EASY signings as opposed to going for the BEST possible signings.

I heard the Serravelli and Stauffer proclamations of being a place where players want to play too. But if true, I’m not seeing a lot of the fruits of that narrative. McDavid did increas our attractiveness though I guess, Lucic, Hyman, and now Brown can be seen as McDavid effect gets. But it doesn’t feel like much, and still feels like we’re looking for scraps in free agency.

We barely have cap space man and, please tell me, what areas do we need help in other than the RD? If Broberg breaks out, we don't even need one

 

[TheNumber4]

We barely have cap space man and, please tell me, what areas do we need help in other than the RD? If Broberg breaks out, we don't even need one

We might have more cap space if we drafted better. We wouldn’t be scrambling in free agency and overpaying to fill holes cause they’d already be filled.

RD is our most glaring weakness. RW a bit weak too, were relying on a year long injury recovery player to step in and hopefully fill one RW spot, the other spot still in limbo but I guess Hyman can play his off wing. Bottom 6 depth was decent last year, but losing Kostin makes that another area that needs improvement again.

 

[Mr Positive]

We barely have cap space man and, please tell me, what areas do we need help in other than the RD? If Broberg breaks out, we don't even need one

And heck, even if Broberg is just "good enough", maybe by the deadline a different giant hole in the lineup shows up. There could be injury or underperformance. We can save our trade assets for later

The key time to truly finish the team is the deadline in the weeks before the playoffs, not now, especially since there isn't a golden opportunity out there.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I was looking at some of Erne's fancy stats...

In 6 out of his 7 years in the NHL he's had solid expected GA/60 relative numbers (and one year he was just barely underwater).

Also in those 7 years he was underwater 6 of the 7 years in expected GF/60 relative (and one year he was above water).


Looks to me like a guy who's pretty decent defensively but hasn't lived up to his offensive potential.

Not that bad a bet though when you don't need a lot of offensive firepower from him but would like him to help tread water defensively in the bottom 6 and potentially coming into the lineup occasionally when they play 12F/6D instead of 11F/7D.


I could see a line of Erne-Sutter-Ryan being a pretty solid defensive line to throw out there that wouldn't get eaten alive while the top 9 rests. Also when is the last time the Oilers would have had an All-American born forward line?

 

[Anarchism]

I was looking at some of Erne's fancy stats...

In 6 out of his 7 years in the NHL he's had solid expected GA/60 relative numbers (and one year he was just barely underwater).

Also in those 7 years he was underwater 6 of the 7 years in expected GF/60 relative (and one year he was above water).


Looks to me like a guy who's pretty decent defensively but hasn't lived up to his offensive potential.

Not that bad a bet though when you don't need a lot of offensive firepower from him but would like him to help tread water defensively in the bottom 6 and potentially coming into the lineup occasionally when they play 12F/6D instead of 11F/7D.


I could see a line of Erne-Sutter-Ryan being a pretty solid defensive line to throw out there that wouldn't get eaten alive while the top 9 rests. Also when is the last time the Oilers would have had an All-American born forward line?

How long has Sutter been back skating and with who?
Can he catch back up to the speed? I think he is in tough. Hope im wrong.
But don't count dem chickens just yet.

Ernie could be used if Holloway needs to sit a few games and could be used beside Mcleod occasionally to win a few board battles and patrol the defensive slot. He might even have enough to get the occasional look beside Drais as a net front presence.
But in the end he is a utility player at this point so who knows.

Some 'nutter' has all three PTO's making it. Lol.

 

[nexttothemoon]

How long has Sutter been back skating and with who?
Can he catch back up to the speed? I think he is in tough. Hope im wrong.
But don't count dem chickens just yet.

Ernie could be used if Holloway needs to sit a few games and could be used beside Mcleod occasionally to win a few board battles and patrol the defensive slot. He might even have enough to get the occasional look beside Drais as a net front presence.
But in the end he is a utility player at this point so who knows.

Some 'nutter' has all three PTO's making it. Lol.

I think all 3 PTO's are in tough but I can also see value in at least a couple of them for veteran depth when inevitable injuries hit.

Especially this year that's going to be an issue with the cap so tight and the team likely carrying only 21 skaters most/all of the season... 1 or 2 injuries and you are already going to be digging deep into the AHL to fill holes.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I’m a big fan of Lindholm but I just don’t see a realistic scenario for the Oilers to add him. He’s going to be coveted by several teams if they do deal him and giving up that kind of haul to play him on the 3rd line would be kind of a waste in my opinion. You’re giving up a lot of good assets for two rentals in one year, I think they would be better served spreading those assets over multiple runs or like the Ekholm deal where you’re getting back a high end piece that is going to be with you for multiple runs.

Fair points, but the Oil are in cap hell so when you have a chance to get guys like that where double retention brings them down to the 1.3 mil range, you go all in. These opportunities might not be present next year. This is a really good year for the rental market.

As for Lindholm as 3C, I think it’s more a case of flexing depth. The guy is great defensively, good on draws (and a righty), and produces great 5 on 5. Some would call that a luxury, but if Woody is committed to rolling 11-7, you need a 3rd line that can play 15+ minutes a night.

I don’t think it’s much different than LA deploying Kopitar/Dubois/Danault down the middle. Obviously our group would be leaps and bounds better, but it’s nice to roll 3 lines and then have forwards 10 and 11 more specialty guys (PK likely… or you can dress a thug if you want McD to have protection).