Fourier
Registered User
It is not impossible for him to wait. It is just extremely unlikely that he would wait for the explicit reason you state.
Now could things go sour with negotiations and this drags out till next year. Yes. That is possible. However, based on everything we have heard the chances of him not signing this summer are pretty slim to begin with. For your scenario to play out he would have to have pretty much already decided he would not sign this year. That is hitch one since it seems to contradict everything we have heard. It is also a very risky move since he is putting at least $100M in guaranteed money on the line to play his waiting game.
From there the plan to wait until after McDavid signs gets even more complicated. Not only would he have to first go to free agency since McDavid cannot formally sign until after July 1 but it is very possible that McDavid does not sign immediately after July1 for a variety of reasons. Like Leon he may well not want to deal with contract stuff during the season and another long playoff run could easily mean no negotiations until after July 1. We are at August 1 with Leon and there seems to be neither panic or excess urgency to get the deal done. If a similar pattern happens with McDavid, which is certainly possible for a variety of reasons, Leon is still sitting there as a UFA one month after teams have pretty much made almost all of their big moves waiting to see what McDavid will do. At that point his options to go to a contender as a UFA are most likely gone since no contender is going into August 2025 with anywhere close to $13-14M in cap space. Not the smartest move, don't you agree.
And finally there is the chicken vs the egg aspect of your plan. Why would McDavid agree to sign first if Leon refused to sign before he did? Can you give me one reason why he would? Moreover, in the extremely unlikely scenario that McDavid suddenly decides to move on Leon would not be tied to the Oilers even if he signed an 8 year deal. If McDavid unexpectedly indicated he was leaving, and Leon asked to be traded it would be in the Oilers best interest to accommodate him. With McDavid gone and other core players aging the haul they would get a significant haul by trading Leon with 7 more years on his deal.
Leon's agent already said they are only interested in a long term deal. So I think your 1 year deal to make this all happen is completely off the table. (I also see 0 reason why the Oilers would agree to such a deal.)
My feelings about your scenario have nothing to do with my assessment of its likelihood. Given everything we know about the two players it is just extremely unlikely it plays out that way.
