Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Broberg, Holloway and Ceci are Gone, Do We Add Another D Before Camp?

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Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,483
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Waterloo Ontario
At this point if Nurse played consistently like a $5-6M D man I would be happy.

~23 mins per night of uneventful hockey, 30-40 points, impactful on special teams, and has the ability to carry a lesser player on the pair. Just give me that.
Unfortunately, what you have described is a $9M+ defenseman right now.

The reality with Nurses is that he is mostly a positive contributor and when he is on the ice 5 vs 5 the Oilers almost always come out at least neutral but often ahead.

I am going to give you what I am sure will be a controversial stat but one I have looked at over the years. Take a look at the number of games each year that a defenseman ends up with a -ve overall. In Nurse's case over the last three years he has been a negative 60 times. Here are the numbers for some of the top defensemen in the league on some of the better teams:

Josi 73/229=31.9%
Hedman 74/236=31.4%
Makar 60/188=31.9%
Heiskanen 67/227=29.5%
Nurse 60/234=25.6%
Pietrangelo 78/ 217=35.9% (I actually don't think he is still a top defenseman.)
Adam Fox 59/232=25.4%
Quinn Hughes 65/236=27.5%

The thing with Nurses is that his errors are so noticeable that they burn into memory and they often ending up in goals against. But what is going to be less notable is that most of the time he is actually a pretty solid contributor. Now do these numbers prove anything profound, I can't make that claim. But what I thing they do show is that I suspect that if he was the disaster that some on here see him as there is no way that he could come out neutral or better so often.
 

K1984

Registered User
Feb 7, 2008
14,866
15,969
Nurse has been excellent for us in every playoff except for last year. People have very short memories around here but when we lost to Vegas and Colorado both teams talked positively about Nurse after.

You can't possibly accuse others of having a short memory if this is your take.

Nurse quite literally nearly single handedly lost both Game 1 and even more specifically Game 2 against the Avalanche. We were tied in kind of a saw off Game in the middle of the 2nd in Game 2 before Darnell served up two straight pizzas that went in our net. People were talking about scratching him prior to Game 3 here.

Against Vegas Game 3 was the Nurse game where he kicked the night off serving up turnovers that again ended in our net. That was before getting himself suspended for no reason in Game 4.

I would be curious to see if you can find more than maybe. a single opinion saying he was good after the 22 and 23 playoffs from here. He sucked.
 

McShogun99

Registered User
Aug 30, 2009
18,586
15,085
Edmonton
You can't possibly accuse others of having a short memory if this is your take.

Nurse quite literally nearly single handedly lost both Game 1 and even more specifically Game 2 against the Avalanche. We were tied in kind of a saw off Game in the middle of the 2nd in Game 2 before Darnell served up two straight pizzas that went in our net. People were talking about scratching him prior to Game 3 here.

Against Vegas Game 3 was the Nurse game where he kicked the night off serving up turnovers that again ended in our net. That was before getting himself suspended for no reason in Game 4.

I would be curious to see if you can find more than maybe. a single opinion saying he was good after the 22 and 23 playoffs from here. He sucked.
He was injured against the Avs but was excellent in rounds 1 and 2 that year. I'm not going to defend his contract because even at his best he's over payed by 2 million but he's a valuable member of this team.
 
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smokersarejokers

Registered User
Jul 7, 2005
2,952
1,004
Unfortunately, Crosby would be more likely to land in Colorado to play with MacKinnon than Edmonton.
I don't know, man. I know they're buddies or whatever and Sid kinda likes to be low key off the ice, but ending his career by winning a cup in Canada would be so huge for his legacy.

He really has nothing to prove at this point. What's a ring in Denver worth besides hanging with Nate? I'm sure they see each other enough anyway.

I know he grew up a Habs fan, so maybe he looks there, but hopefully 29 and 97 can twist his arm into taking a super team friendly deal...
 

bobbythebrain

Registered User
Jul 30, 2016
13,956
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Every playoffs?

You know that’s wrong, you don’t have to exaggerate to say that Nurse hasn’t been good enough

Show me a good playoffs? He was victimized in the Play In series, and just incase you try, DO NOT cite minutes played as an argument.

Nurse has been abysmal in every playoff series he's played. No exaggeration needed.

Also, just go back watch the Van series and thar "perfect defensive" team game win.
Van choked us out on the board that series and game. Ekholm adjusted by using the boards less and chipping to Bouch.
Bouchard adjusted by flipping it up the middle.......Now go rewatch Darnell. He just kept using the boards over and over...except in that particular game Van had trouble settling pucks and taking advantage. So we get the win and Darnell gets credit for being part of that "perfect game", despite giving Van over a handful of chances to punish us.

I'm not exaggerating I just don't have blinders on
 

Tobias Kahun

Registered User
Oct 3, 2017
44,029
54,719
Show me a good playoffs? He was victimized in the Play In series, and just incase you try, DO NOT cite minutes played as an argument.

Nurse has been abysmal in every playoff series he's played. No exaggeration needed.

Also, just go back watch the Van series and thar "perfect defensive" team game win.
Van choked us out on the board that series and game. Ekholm adjusted by using the boards less and chipping to Bouch.
Bouchard adjusted by flipping it up the middle.......Now go rewatch Darnell. He just kept using the boards over and over...except in that particular game Van had trouble settling pucks and taking advantage. So we get the win and Darnell gets credit for being part of that "perfect game", despite giving Van over a handful of chances to punish us.

I'm not exaggerating I just don't have blinders on
You got the blinders on the opposite way where you just say he’s always been shit since he has a bad playoffs this year.

I like how you say that ekholm adjusted by giving it to Bouchard, what was nurse supposed to do? Pass it to Ceci?
 

CupofOil

Knob Flavored Coffey
Aug 20, 2009
48,291
44,661
NYC
Other than the bubble sweep against the Jets Nurse has been objectively bad every playoff since. It's three years in a row now where his game got worse in the playoffs, and has been a straight up liability at times in all three years.

This is pretty far from an exaggeration. Doesn't mean I think we wouldn't be impacted by him simply moving on without replacement, but it is accurate to say he stinks when the games get more important.
I wonder how much of that is the Ceci effect and I also wonder how detrimental Nurse was to Ceci. They were ok the first regular season together but it fell off a cliff after and they always played their worst in the playoffs outside of Game 7 Cody.
Small sample size and all but both played better away from the other when they were FINALLY split last playoffs.

Long story short, thank fn god we don't ever have to see Nurse-Ceci again.

Edit: Watch them trade for Ceci at the deadline and torment us some more haha
 

CycloneSweep

Registered User
Sep 27, 2017
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You got the blinders on the opposite way where you just say he’s always been shit since he has a bad playoffs this year.

I like how you say that ekholm adjusted by giving it to Bouchard, what was nurse supposed to do? Pass it to Ceci?
He’s supposed to try something? He’s had a few games here and there but ultimately…
He has yet to have a playoff where he has a positive goal share. Closest was 21/22 at 48%. That was also the only year he had a positive goal share compared to his teammates too. So really he had one good playoffs and the rest have been relatively bad.
(To note here too, that’s his raw goal share numbers, if you look at his expected numbers he has been abysmal the entire time compared to his team mates as well. )
Now sure you can definitely put a lot of that on his D partners for sure. But even individual decision making from him he struggles with in the playoffs.
Nurse has never been good at quick thinking and it seems to get worse in the playoffs.

I think he gets over hated and SHOULD be fine as a second pairing D but really his contract is the issue more so than his play as a second pairing d
 

CupofOil

Knob Flavored Coffey
Aug 20, 2009
48,291
44,661
NYC
Nurse has been excellent for us in every playoff except for last year. People have very short memories around here but when we lost to Vegas and Colorado both teams talked positively about Nurse after.
Nurse was terrible against Vegas and Colorado, he and Ceci both. Those teams probably talked positively about Nurse because they loved playing against him.
 
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Oilslick941611

Registered User
Jul 4, 2006
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Ottawa
We did hear that Anaheim was one of the two teams interested in Kane. Not sure Kane would want to go back to California or not thought .They also have a buttload of cap space so I don't see retaining on Fowler as an issue. Three way trade:

Edmonton
Fowler @ 3.25M

Vancouver
Kane @ 2.55M

Anaheim:
EDM 2026 1st
VAN 2025 1st
Poolman

Am I crazy or does that actually sound like a good trade for all teams involved?
youre crazy, 2 first for a 32 year old D man?
 

Tobias Kahun

Registered User
Oct 3, 2017
44,029
54,719
He’s supposed to try something? He’s had a few games here and there but ultimately…
He has yet to have a playoff where he has a positive goal share. Closest was 21/22 at 48%. That was also the only year he had a positive goal share compared to his teammates too. So really he had one good playoffs and the rest have been relatively bad.
Now sure you can definitely put a lot of that on his D partners for sure. But even individual decision making from him he struggles with in the playoffs.
Nurse has never been good at quick thinking and it seems to get worse in the playoffs.
I guess when you look at all strengths and hold his PK GA against him in goal differential it’s going to look bad.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that a player who plays lots of PK minutes and low PP minutes that his goal share is going to look bad.
 

CycloneSweep

Registered User
Sep 27, 2017
50,399
42,146
I wonder how much of that is the Ceci effect and I also wonder how detrimental Nurse was to Ceci. They were ok the first regular season together but it fell off a cliff after and they always played their worst in the playoffs outside of Game 7 Cody.
Small sample size and all but both played better away from the other when they were FINALLY split last playoffs.

Long story short, thank fn god we don't ever have to see Nurse-Ceci again.

Edit: Watch them trade for Ceci at the deadline and torment us some more haha
Funny enough…
Nurse with Ceci 29.41%GF/35.01%xGF
Nurse without Ceci 40.91/47.51
Ceci without Nurse 53.33/40.56
Without both 60.78/57.44
Nurse with Broberg 66.67/30.21

By those numbers, especially with Ceci seeing easier icetime, Ceci definitely was hurting Nhrse more than Nurse hurt Ceci.
Although these numbers also show me that Broberg was actually playing worse than Ceci but they were getting much more luck on both ends of the ice.

This team is better without Ceci, it’ll soon be seen if Nurse needs to go as well.
 

CycloneSweep

Registered User
Sep 27, 2017
50,399
42,146
I guess when you look at all strengths and hold his PK GA against him in goal differential it’s going to look bad.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that a player who plays lots of PK minutes and low PP minutes that his goal share is going to look bad.
That’s fair and reasonable. So lets look at 5v5 play by the same metrics to see if that changes it a ton.

Im going to list stats for the playoff years he had
16/17, 19/20, 20/21, 22/23, 23/24
GF% 50, 36.36, 66.67, 53.66, 47.52, 35.90
RelGF% 4.55, -13.64, 44.44!, 5.93, -4.23, -23.19!
xGF% 46.47, 54.37, 60.84, 49.82, 54.66, 41.95
RelxGF% -0.58, -8.93, 4.34. -1.72, -0.08, -12.02

So looking at this his third playoffs the 2020/2021 sweep was his best playoffs by a wide margin but that is to be expected. That was the year he played a stupid amount of good minutes. This year he has for the most part, steadily gotten worse.
Now the one thing I will admit and also point out, that has been the 3 years with Ceci and Barrie.

Just looking at the numbers and relative to his team mates you could definitely argue he had 1 very good playoffs, 2 decent/average/good (depending on how you look at it) and then 3 bad. And the more recent ones have been bad, which is concerning. Now we will have to see this year if we get him a different partner thats decent helps his game, but if it doesn't we are in serious trouble with that contract.
 

Canovin

1% is the new 11.5%
Oct 27, 2010
19,116
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780
Unfortunately, what you have described is a $9M+ defenseman right now.

The reality with Nurses is that he is mostly a positive contributor and when he is on the ice 5 vs 5 the Oilers almost always come out at least neutral but often ahead.

I am going to give you what I am sure will be a controversial stat but one I have looked at over the years. Take a look at the number of games each year that a defenseman ends up with a -ve overall. In Nurse's case over the last three years he has been a negative 60 times. Here are the numbers for some of the top defensemen in the league on some of the better teams:

Josi 73/229=31.9%
Hedman 74/236=31.4%
Makar 60/188=31.9%
Heiskanen 67/227=29.5%
Nurse 60/234=25.6%
Pietrangelo 78/ 217=35.9% (I actually don't think he is still a top defenseman.)
Adam Fox 59/232=25.4%
Quinn Hughes 65/236=27.5%

The thing with Nurses is that his errors are so noticeable that they burn into memory and they often ending up in goals against. But what is going to be less notable is that most of the time he is actually a pretty solid contributor. Now do these numbers prove anything profound, I can't make that claim. But what I thing they do show is that I suspect that if he was the disaster that some on here see him as there is no way that he could come out neutral or better so often.
The world needs more people like you. Even when Nurse sucks, you're still able to find something good to say about him
 

Broberg Speed

Registered User
Oct 23, 2020
7,977
5,365
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Nurse Bouchard pairing and Ekholm Emberson pairing. Gives Coffey a chance to see if he can get more from Nurse when paired with an excellent puck mover and also if Bouchard wants to be one of the highest paid defenders in the league then he’s going to need to show he can hold his own away from Ekholm and he won’t fall apart when paired with a lesser defender.

It also gives them an opportunity to start Emberson with a steady partner where they can test him with some good minutes and comp.

They can always go back to Bouchard Ekholm but I think it would be good to test Bouchard in different scenarios and deployments before you make your decision on how you want to approach his extension.
If Bouchard doesn't sign a full term deal before the season starts absolutely 100% he should play with Nurse all 82 games in the regular season. Regardless of the outcome.

If he's banking he can have another great season to up his ask he should have to do it with Nurse and really prove his worth properly. Maybe he only scores 60 points this season. He'll won't have much bargaining power if he regresses by 22 points.

At the same time if Bouchard plays well Nurse should improve as well. A bold strategy but the Oilers really don't have any other choice.
 

bobbythebrain

Registered User
Jul 30, 2016
13,956
13,761
You got the blinders on the opposite way where you just say he’s always been shit since he has a bad playoffs this year.

I like how you say that ekholm adjusted by giving it to Bouchard, what was nurse supposed to do? Pass it to Ceci?

Lol. Ceci.... You nailed it. If you don't recall you might want to go back and watch in slow mo. Count the number of times this playoffs he picked up the puck behind/side of net and had several feet of daylight to skate, but then opted to do a no look reverse to Ceci who was completely blanked.
He literally did this the entire playoffs that ended in countless turnovers, that Ceci got blamed for.

As for Ekholm, his passes actually were to an.open Bouchard....cuz he actually looked first
 

K1984

Registered User
Feb 7, 2008
14,866
15,969
Lol. Ceci.... You nailed it. If you don't recall you might want to go back and watch in slow mo. Count the number of times this playoffs he picked up the puck behind/side of net and had several feet of daylight to skate, but then opted to do a no look reverse to Ceci who was completely blanked.
He literally did this the entire playoffs that ended in countless turnovers, that Ceci got blamed for.

As for Ekholm, his passes actually were to an.open Bouchard....cuz he actually looked first

Nurse is the Bobby Orr of blowing up fairly basic D to D plays in his own zone.
 
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