Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Broberg, Holloway and Ceci are Gone, Do We Add Another D Before Camp?

[McTonyBrar]

Start of the Kemp dynasty.

I think he’ll get 15-20 games and make the team full-time next year.

Wanner is much better. He did better in his rookie year than Kemp did in his whole time in the AHL.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Wanner is much better. He did better in his rookie year than Kemp did in his whole time in the AHL.

Thats not true that he did better than kemp in his whole time in the AHL.

 

[Fourier]

I don’t know that teams automatically will match it.

A 3x6.78M deal could be structured to have a qualifying offer over 10M and would take the player to within a year of UFA. At that point he could refuse to negotiate and you would have to extend that qualifying offer to him or lose his rights, which he could sign and then be a year away from ufa.

The guy has told you he doesn’t want to play for your team and you can’t trade him now for a year. The offer sheeting team could even throw in an unfavourable nmc that converts to a modified ntc in the last year of the deal to make it even harder for the matching team to trade him.

There is no way to structure a three year deal at $6.78M to have a qualifying offer at $10M. You could get it to $8M though. The problem is that the Oilers would also face the same QO.

 

[Senor Catface]

Wanner is much better. He did better in his rookie year than Kemp did in his whole time in the AHL.

Kemp will get called up first.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Oilers signed them for a reason.. they could've gotten someone like Boqvist or Barrie for cheaper but I honestly they they see both of these as an upgrade over Desharnais. Emberson is better than both of these. We also have Wanner, Kemp and Akey coming down the pipeline. Time to test drive these guys before looking elsewhere.

The reason was cheap bottom roster insurance with x2 and x3 term as poison pill waiver claim protection. The plan changed when the Oilers lost Broberg and pivoted to move Ceci as a fallback. In hindsight a gamble on a young underperforming pedigree d-man like Boqvist would have thrown someone with 2nd pair upside into the mix.

Emberson's age and circumstances waived from a strong Rangers defense roster and known to the Rags then farm team coach is a good bet to trial on a thirty game NHL sample size. The world is wide open now with Plan A gone.

Common sense dictates reaching out to one's professional networks for intel on hopefuls. Not hard to imagine this organization tilting to incorporate information based decision making using modelling to identify latent potential players to support the eye guys in their work.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Cap? LTIR? Deadline?
At the end of the day, we can speculate or plan or cry or whatever.
The most important thing right now is the extension of 1 contract. The result of those negotiations is pivotal right now
Can’t wait to see what happens
Fascinating

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

Dusty is guessing that Bob is hinting at Barrie

 

[guymez]

Nurse got 9.25 after his one great year. Not a great example of getting paid for potential.

Well....fair to say that he got paid for that and what he was supposed to do moving forward.

Nurse has been hot garabge ever since he signed that deal.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

There is any way to structure a three year deal at $6.78M to have a qualifying offer at $10M. You could get it to $8M though. The problem is that the Oilers would also face the same QO.

Damn, I thought it was just 100% of salary meaning they could back load and push up the qo but I see that it’s now lesser of 100% of salary or 120% cap hit.

For the Oilers, in my view the qualifying offer isn’t as detrimental because likely this player has increased their value and very well could be worth that money in a future cap environment. Always have the option to try and negotiate a lower cap like NJ did with Meier or if you just can’t afford him at all you can probably still trade him as an rfa. Worse case you don’t qualify him, let him walk and probably think the 1st and 3rd was worth the 3 years you got out of the player.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Dusty is guessing that Bob is hinting at Barrie

I hope that's not true

 

[McShogun99]

I’d like to see us find a younger, faster version of Ryan for that 4C spot. Then have Perry/Lavoie share the 4th line RW spot to give Perry some rest if Lavoie has a good camp.

Dusty is guessing that Bob is hinting at Barrie

I think Barrie still hasn’t sold his house in the river valley so at least he has a place lined up already.

 

[brentashton]

Please take Stecher and Brown out of that equation lmfao

Stecher might be the wild card. He’s not a dud by any stretch and he didn’t get a good look last spring because of the ankle injury.

I’m not saying he’s Cal Makar but let’s keep our powder dry for now…

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I think his 5v5 goal scoring really stood out that year. Was riding a really high shooting % though. Bit of an aberration, more than double his career sh%. His skating was great that season, he was all over the ice. Another thing that has unfortunately fallen off with his injuries.

He was definitely trending up for a while, but seems he really slammed into a ceiling right around the time he secured generational wealth. Losing McDavid ice time and his speed being cut down probably the main factors. Won't really question his desire to win, although, maybe he hasn't gone as hard doing extra stuff lately like when he did skills coaching with Oates.

His skating speed hasn't dropped off. This regular season his top speed was 72 percentile (22.68) with 66 percentile burst speed >20 MPH 94 (league avg was 30). Playoffs dropped to 51 percentile (21.46) and 87 percentile burst speed >20.

His baseline is a double digit EV goal scoring d-man, 30+ point EV points, 22:00 TOI weighing heavily to EV and PK with o-zone advantaged starts dropping from a high of 48.3% in 2020-21 to past season 41.9%. His minutes/usage allocation since 2020-21 have trended higher in subsequent years for important situation play including shorthanded; 5-on-5 close games; 5-on-5 tied games (some peaking in 2022-2023 season (when Ekholm showed up). When you look at where Nurse scores his goals a majority are mid-range which we see him effective as as rush defenseman.

There's an awful lot to like in Nurse's game. He and Ceci's game didn't mesh with both having impulsive decision making to chase opposition into low danger ice. Randomness of breaking structure hurt their partners but also team support. So while a ton of trust in the players in critical situations (assumption Ceci's ice-time deployment/usage mirror somewhat), we see the consequences of chaos decisions with pucks in net. But there is a lot of safe, trusted situational ice played by Nurse.

The challenge is an all tool large d-man with prone tendencies for impulsive decision making. An amazing opportunity to invest in a 2RD to complement and mitigate the decision making blindspot gaffs that happen with huge minute players in key situational toi that tilts to goal suppression.

Option 1 is a smart d-zone shutdown defender type that doesn't wander from home plate defending and a guy with good processor and puck skills to nurture Nurse as a puck transporter, offensive zone penetrator.

Option 2 is a skilled puck moving offensive d-man with solid structured and disciplined own zone defending but the processor and skills to quickly make decisions and drive zone exits to the Oilers strong, deep forward attack.

Remove the salary discussion. It's pointless. There is a formidable baseline that a strong information driven organization can find and secure a better fit.

 

[VainGretzky]

Ceci is an addition by subtraction IMO he was horrible at getting the puck out of the zone, Nurse has been better without him and that's a fact every time he was on with McDavid he would get beautiful shot setups from the point which he would rifle 5-10 feet wide, this will improve with Stetcher or Brown or Emberson receiving them

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Damn, I thought it was just 100% of salary meaning they could back load and push up the qo but I see that it’s now lesser of 100% of salary or 120% cap hit.

For the Oilers, in my view the qualifying offer isn’t as detrimental because likely this player has increased their value and very well could be worth that money in a future cap environment. Always have the option to try and negotiate a lower cap like NJ did with Meier or if you just can’t afford him at all you can probably still trade him as an rfa. Worse case you don’t qualify him, let him walk and probably think the 1st and 3rd was worth the 3 years you got out of the player.

There is precendent with analytics heavy Hurricane organization that overpaid to snake Kotenemi and then re-signed him to a term deal at lesser AAV. Imagine it's part of the vision to lay out when 'legally' able to talk to RFA's.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

His skating speed hasn't dropped off. This regular season his top speed was 72 percentile (22.68) with 66 percentile burst speed >20 MPH 94 (league avg was 30). Playoffs dropped to 51 percentile (21.46) and 87 percentile burst speed >20.

His baseline is a double digit EV goal scoring d-man, 30+ point EV points, 22:00 TOI weighing heavily to EV and PK with o-zone advantaged starts dropping from a high of 48.3% in 2020-21 to past season 41.9%. His minutes/usage allocation since 2020-21 have trended higher in subsequent years for important situation play including shorthanded; 5-on-5 close games; 5-on-5 tied games (some peaking in 2022-2023 season (when Ekholm showed up). When you look at where Nurse scores his goals a majority are mid-range which we see him effective as as rush defenseman.

There's an awful lot to like in Nurse's game. He and Ceci's game didn't mesh with both having impulsive decision making to chase opposition into low danger ice. Randomness of breaking structure hurt their partners but also team support. So while a ton of trust in the players in critical situations (assumption Ceci's ice-time deployment/usage mirror somewhat), we see the consequences of chaos decisions with pucks in net. But there is a lot of safe, trusted situational ice played by Nurse.

The challenge is an all tool large d-man with prone tendencies for impulsive decision making. An amazing opportunity to invest in a 2RD to complement and mitigate the decision making blindspot gaffs that happen with huge minute players in key situational toi that tilts to goal suppression.

Option 1 is a smart d-zone shutdown defender type that doesn't wander from home plate defending and a guy with good processor and puck skills to nurture Nurse as a puck transporter, offensive zone penetrator.

Option 2 is a skilled puck moving offensive d-man with solid structured and disciplined own zone defending but the processor and skills to quickly make decisions and drive zone exits to the Oilers strong, deep forward attack.

Remove the salary discussion. It's pointless. There is a formidable baseline that a strong information driven organization can find and secure a better fit.

You’ve hit the nail on the end with Nurse, the question is which option is going to make Nurse the best version of himself? It seems like they might be setting themselves up to try and find an answer. They’ve got Bouchard who is a plus puck moving offensive dman to test out option 2 then a guy like Emberson who stylistically could be a good tester for option 1.

I think ideally you want to find a great option 1 Because a player like that is likely easier to keep affordable while a more offensive guy might price themselves off the team.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

You’ve hit the nail on the end with Nurse, the question is which option is going to make Nurse the best version of himself? It seems like they might be setting themselves up to try and find an answer. They’ve got Bouchard who is a plus puck moving offensive dman to test out option 2 then a guy like Emberson who stylistically could be a good tester for option 1.

I think ideally you want to find a great option 1 Because a player like that is likely easier to keep affordable while a more offensive guy might price themselves off the team.

I've alway thought option 1 was the missing piece and in considering this team's goaltending. Agree about the price point and probably supply too. There's gaps in evaluating this player type. I'm not so sure now if the team structure and player commitment has finally stuck post Tippett, post Woodcroft; and now second year Knoblauch.

This is where it gets interesting with an information driven organization. The resources are available to reset this overdue roster need. The upside is massive if it unlocks Nurse's formidable versatility while mitigating his blindspots.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I think his 5v5 goal scoring really stood out that year. Was riding a really high shooting % though. Bit of an aberration, more than double his career sh%. His skating was great that season, he was all over the ice. Another thing that has unfortunately fallen off with his injuries.

He was definitely trending up for a while, but seems he really slammed into a ceiling right around the time he secured generational wealth. Losing McDavid ice time and his speed being cut down probably the main factors. Won't really question his desire to win, although, maybe he hasn't gone as hard doing extra stuff lately like when he did skills coaching with Oates.

It actually dropped off when he stopped playing a majority of his minutes with McDavid.

 

[guymez]

You’ve hit the nail on the end with Nurse, the question is which option is going to make Nurse the best version of himself? It seems like they might be setting themselves up to try and find an answer. They’ve got Bouchard who is a plus puck moving offensive dman to test out option 2 then a guy like Emberson who stylistically could be a good tester for option 1.

I think ideally you want to find a great option 1 Because a player like that is likely easier to keep affordable while a more offensive guy might price themselves off the team.

So really the team has to find an affordable player that makes the most expensive dman on the team better.
A cheap player that can offset Mr $9.25M's many on ice deficiencies.
What a batshit crazy situation.

Where will this team be when Drai and Bouchard sign their new contracts?

Nurse has to go this season at some point.

There isnt a player cheap enough that can make Nurse a beter player AND offset his massive contract enough to make a difference moving forward.

 

[Mr Positive]

So really the team has to find an affordable player that makes the most expensive dman on the team better.
A cheap player that can offset Mr $9.25M's many on ice deficiencies.
What a batshit crazy situation.

Where will this team be when Drai and Bouchard sign their new contracts?

Nurse has to go this season at some point.

There isnt a player cheap enough that can make Nurse a beter player AND offset his massive contract enough to make a difference moving forward.

It's a waste of time to suggest moving Nurse. He has a full NMC and will not waive. Even if he did waive, the cost to move him would be intense. What is the point in going down this road? All it does is create this source of pressure from the fanbase that only hurts the team

I much prefer that we find the right RD for him. I don't see why an Ekholm level of salary couldn't be fit in. Nurse still has a very good skillset and can be a great contributor. He has been in the past. None of his issues seem to be the result of him aging out. With Nurse his issue is most likely that the quality of his play depends a lot on the players around him and maybe systems. This should be the focus when it comes to Nurse if the goal is to win hockey games

 

[SupremeTeam16]

So really the team has to find an affordable player that makes the most expensive dman on the team better.
A cheap player that can offset Mr $9.25M's many on ice deficiencies.
What a batshit crazy situation.

Where will this team be when Drai and Bouchard sign their new contracts?

Nurse has to go this season at some point.

There isnt a player cheap enough that can make Nurse a beter player AND offset his massive contract enough to make a difference moving forward.

the only thing more bat shit crazy is believing that trading Nurse in the next year or two is actually viable. It’s a non starter and realistically the best way to make it become an option is by trying to get the best out of Nurse.

 

[guymez]

It's a waste of time to suggest moving Nurse. He has a full NMC and will not waive. Even if he did waive, the cost to move him would be intense. What is the point in going down this road? All it does is create this source of pressure from the fanbase that only hurts the team

I much prefer that we find the right RD for him. I don't see why an Ekholm level of salary couldn't be fit in. Nurse still has a very good skillset and can be a great contributor. He has been in the past. None of his issues seem to be the result of him aging out. With Nurse his issue is most likely that the quality of his play depends a lot on the players around him and maybe systems. This should be the focus when it comes to Nurse if the goal is to win hockey games

The bolded is just your opinion.
You dont know that to be a fact.

I am all for finding that magical D partner that can make Nurse a better player and still be very cheap.
Good luck finding him though.

 

[Mr Positive]

The bolded is just your opinion.
You dont know that to be a fact.

I am all for finding that magical D partner that can make Nurse a better player and still be very cheap.
Good luck finding him though.

I remember those flashes when Nurse looked better with Stecher and then Broberg. I bet the only trick is to pair him to an actual puck mover/transporter who can skate well. The sample size is not great there but it's worth a shot.

So what we want is the high quality RD version of that. The obvious target is Andersson from Calgary. The issue there is that everyone wants him. Of the cheap PTO candidates I suppose Barrie makes sense. He is at least a good puck mover and I liked his improvements in his board work while he was here. I don't know if he has declined though.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The problem with Nurse is his penchant for unforced errors and brain cramps. Put him alongside Chris Pronger and he'll still fire the puck down the ice like its a competition.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I've alway thought option 1 was the missing piece and in considering this team's goaltending. Agree about the price point and probably supply too. There's gaps in evaluating this player type. I'm not so sure now if the team structure and player commitment has finally stuck post Tippett, post Woodcroft; and now second year Knoblauch.

This is where it gets interesting with an information driven organization. The resources are available to reset this overdue roster need. The upside is massive if it unlocks Nurse's formidable versatility while mitigating his blindspots.

This team got increasingly better defensively as a team as the games got harder and really they didn’t lose because of D or goaltending, ironically it was their scoring that couldn’t get it done in the end. So I’m cautiously optimistic that they can carry it on and doing so allows them to move out more expensive bottom end pieces by hunting for particular skillsets for plug and play depth. Emberson seems like a perfect example of this, analytics looks good in small sample, his strengths and natural skill set are role specific to what they are likely wanting out of a Ceci replacement. If I was Emberson I would be watching film on Nurse trying to learn how to play off him and fill the gaps in his defensive game. Thats how he’s going to make himself valuable to this team.