I think his 5v5 goal scoring really stood out that year. Was riding a really high shooting % though. Bit of an aberration, more than double his career sh%. His skating was great that season, he was all over the ice. Another thing that has unfortunately fallen off with his injuries.
He was definitely trending up for a while, but seems he really slammed into a ceiling right around the time he secured generational wealth. Losing McDavid ice time and his speed being cut down probably the main factors. Won't really question his desire to win, although, maybe he hasn't gone as hard doing extra stuff lately like when he did skills coaching with Oates.
His skating speed hasn't dropped off. This regular season his top speed was 72 percentile (22.68) with 66 percentile burst speed >20 MPH 94 (league avg was 30). Playoffs dropped to 51 percentile (21.46) and 87 percentile burst speed >20.
His baseline is a double digit EV goal scoring d-man, 30+ point EV points, 22:00 TOI weighing heavily to EV and PK with o-zone advantaged starts dropping from a high of 48.3% in 2020-21 to past season 41.9%. His minutes/usage allocation since 2020-21 have trended higher in subsequent years for important situation play including shorthanded; 5-on-5 close games; 5-on-5 tied games (some peaking in 2022-2023 season (when Ekholm showed up). When you look at where Nurse scores his goals a majority are mid-range which we see him effective as as rush defenseman.
There's an awful lot to like in Nurse's game. He and Ceci's game didn't mesh with both having impulsive decision making to chase opposition into low danger ice. Randomness of breaking structure hurt their partners but also team support. So while a ton of trust in the players in critical situations (assumption Ceci's ice-time deployment/usage mirror somewhat), we see the consequences of chaos decisions with pucks in net. But there is a lot of safe, trusted situational ice played by Nurse.
The challenge is an all tool large d-man with prone tendencies for impulsive decision making. An amazing opportunity to invest in a 2RD to complement and mitigate the decision making blindspot gaffs that happen with huge minute players in key situational toi that tilts to goal suppression.
Option 1 is a smart d-zone shutdown defender type that doesn't wander from home plate defending and a guy with good processor and puck skills to nurture Nurse as a puck transporter, offensive zone penetrator.
Option 2 is a skilled puck moving offensive d-man with solid structured and disciplined own zone defending but the processor and skills to quickly make decisions and drive zone exits to the Oilers strong, deep forward attack.
Remove the salary discussion. It's pointless. There is a formidable baseline that a strong information driven organization can find and secure a better fit.