Prospect Info: Round 7, 199th overall: Matteo Mann, RHD, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)

[Beef Invictus]

What statistical profiles or profiles, statistically?

Between 2009 and 2018, 119 defensemen were drafted in the 7th round; 37 were from the CHL while 65 were not. Of those 37, six played in at least one game and three played in at least 82 games (Weeger, Middleton, Burroughs). Of all the 302 players selected in the 7th round in that period at any position, 21 have played at least one game in the NHL and only eight have played at least 82 games.

So yes, the odds of him making the NHL are indeed are basically zero, but that’s because he’s a seventh round pick not because he is a QMJHL defenseman (of any profile). If he turns into an ECHL or AHL defensemen for the organization, then that’s a positive.

He's actually bad even for a 7th round pick. That's what makes this remarkable. It's hard to make a bad 7th round pick, and yet here we are.

 

[Pet Charles]

He's actually bad even for a 7th round pick. That's what makes this remarkable. It's hard to make a bad 7th round pick, and yet here we are.

If you say so.

 

[wankstifier]

If you say so.

Look at the lowest scoring NHL defenders last season. Guessing they all produced much better than 0.13p/g in juniors.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If you say so.

There were better players available on his own team.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Burroughs - 0.48 PPG (0.47 PPG)
Middleton - 0.38 PPG (0.35 PPG)
Weegar - 0.84 PPG (0.70 PPG)

Mann - 0.13 PPG (0.11 PPG)

That’s the career point per game average first & then their draft year point per game average in parentheses.

The point @Appleyard is making is that it’s virtually impossible to make it to the NHL as an unproductive junior player. As those ones that do generally hit a threshold that Mann is well short of & very unlikely to reach at this stage of his career.

 

[Appleyard]

Burroughs - 0.48 PPG (0.47 PPG)
Middleton - 0.38 PPG (0.35 PPG)
Weegar - 0.84 PPG (0.70 PPG)

Mann - 0.13 PPG (0.11 PPG)

That’s the career point per game average first & then their draft year point per game average in parentheses.

The point @Appleyard is making is that it’s virtually impossible to make it to the NHL as an unproductive junior player. As those ones that do generally hit a threshold that Mann is well short of & very unlikely to reach at this stage of his career.

I have ~15 years of CHL data on an external hard drive... unfortunately it is at my parents house as when moved country stopped there for a few weeks and not been back in 6 months.

It looks at P/GP, EVP/GP, goal involvement etc, % of team goal involvement.

And off the top of my head such a profile as Mann has never made it to anything more than a fill-in #6-7 D for ~50 games or so. And that is like 1-2 guys in 15 years.

If you dont get ~0.15-0.20 EVP/GP in the CHL in draft year as a Dman (ofc team dependant) you probably dont have the puck-skills to even break-out of the zone in the NHL as a fill-in #6.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I have ~15 years of CHL data on an external hard drive... unfortunately it is at my parents house as when moved country stopped there for a few weeks and not been back in 6 months.

It looks at P/GP, EVP/GP, goal involvement etc, % of team goal involvement.

And off the top of my head such a profile as Mann has never made it to anything more than a fill-in #6-7 D for ~50 games or so. And that is like 1-2 guys in 15 years.

If you dont get ~0.15-0.20 EVP/GP in the CHL in draft year as a Dman (ofc team dependant) you probably dont have the puck-skills to even break-out of the zone in the NHL as a fill-in #6.

Yeah I mean being able to transition the puck & being able to help sustain offensive zone time are just as much as part of playing defense now in today’s NHL. If you can’t really do that at an adequate enough level in juniors I’m supposed to expect you to be able to do that at the minor pro level nonetheless the NHL?

When you’re starting at such a low starting point it’s pretty hard to go up. Since most players are coming down from where they are at in the lower levels.

Mann’s an older player with three full season’s in the Q at this point. He’s 6’6” 220+ lbs. already. So probably not a whole lot of hope for growth potential.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The Flyers used a fourth round pick this year on a re-entry in Knuble who had a draft worthy profile last year. So there’s better profiles left undrafted every year that have a better chance of hitting than a profile like Mann. Obviously both are unlikely to hit in the grand scheme of things but even if it’s a 1-2% chance better of hitting or whatever I’m taking that.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Too much Mann! Why is this a thread again? Asking for humanity

 

[Appleyard]

The Flyers used a fourth round pick this year on a re-entry in Knuble who had a draft worthy profile last year. So there’s better profiles left undrafted every year that have a better chance of hitting than a profile like Mann. Obviously both are unlikely to hit in the grand scheme of things but even if it’s a 1-2% chance better of hitting or whatever I’m taking that.

Yegor Klimovich just went undrafted aha...

I mean, the guy will likely be at worst a solid KHLer down the line even with his flaws.

Michkov, Kuznetsov, Kucherov are the only players to produce more than him in the MHL at age 17.

He got 1.36 P/GP and basically everyone who gets 1.10+ P/GP in that league at that age becomes a solid KHLer with ~half making the NHL.

Unlikely to be another Panarin situation (FFS the man played KHL in his draft year and went undrafted LMAO) but yeh... probably a 10% chance he ends up a 2nd liner.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Yegor Klimovich just went undrafted aha...

I mean, the guy will likely be at worst a solid KHLer down the line even with his flaws.

Yeah I’d imagine teams get obsessed with the thought of having minor league bodies so that does play some part in picks like this. But you can literally get these type of players coming out of college or juniors here in NA to sign like AHL deals most of the time.

 

[FLYguy3911]

His highlight reel is electric.

Also his skating looks atrocious. Looks like he doesn't know how to properly stop.

Being a late '04 (he misses by literally a day) he has to turn pro in two years after he plays his overage season. As a 7th round pick. That's a tough ask for anyone. I get it. Longshot either way, but the odds are just so, so low on a number of fronts. He has to play his overage season anyway. Could have just signed him as a free agent if he turned out to show promise. This pick really makes no sense.

 

[Pet Charles]

Burroughs - 0.48 PPG (0.47 PPG)
Middleton - 0.38 PPG (0.35 PPG)
Weegar - 0.84 PPG (0.70 PPG)

Mann - 0.13 PPG (0.11 PPG)

That’s the career point per game average first & then their draft year point per game average in parentheses.

The point @Appleyard is making is that it’s virtually impossible to make it to the NHL as an unproductive junior player. As those ones that do generally hit a threshold that Mann is well short of & very unlikely to reach at this stage of his career.

It very well may be true that such a profile doesn’t translate to even a cup of coffee in the NHL, but three occurrences (out of a cherry-picked 37) is a statistically insufficient sample size. There’s no trend to be found. It’s a presentation of data that may or may not be relevant with a whole lot of ipse dixit.

I’m not closed to a deeper review when Appleyard can get the data, but whatever comes out will still have that sample size problem. Similarly, Jesus touching Mann on the shoulder such that he does reach the NHL will be apropos of nothing because it too will be a situation that suffers from a sample size problem.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

It very well may be true that such a profile doesn’t translate to even a cup of coffee in the NHL, but three occurrences (out of a cherry-picked 37) is a statistically insufficient sample size. There’s no trend to be found. It’s a presentation of data that may or may not be relevant with a whole lot of ipse dixit.

I’m not closed to a deeper review when Appleyard can get the data, but whatever comes out will still have that sample size problem. Similarly, Jesus touching Mann on the shoulder such that he does reach the NHL will be apropos of nothing because it too will be a situation that suffers from a sample size problem.

You brought them up, not me. I just showed of just those guys you mentioned they hit thresholds that Mann didn’t.

0.30-0.40 PPG is generally around the threshold anyway of guys who did pan out coming out of juniors regardless of their draft position. There’s been studies about this floating around on the internet for years, not just whatever @Appleyard has.

But in any event, believe what you want. I’m done with this conversation.

 

[Magua]

He's an '04 with a full beard and 5 points. I don't need to dive much deeper. #analytics

 

[BringBackHakstol]

This is a ridiculously awful pick. There's nothing else to it

 

[Pet Charles]

You brought them up, not me. I just showed of just those guys you mentioned they hit thresholds that Mann didn’t.

0.30-0.40 PPG is generally around the threshold anyway of guys who did pan out coming out of juniors regardless of their draft position. There’s been studies about this floating around on the internet for years, not just whatever @Appleyard has.

But in any event, believe what you want. I’m done with this conversation.

Were we having a conversation? I responded to Appleyard and you responded to me. I thought the meager discussion was subject-based and civil, but as Jerry said to pilot Elaine, if you want to be broken up then we’re broken up.

For everyone who isn’t breaking up with me, I brought those players up because Appleyard wrote that the chances of a CHL defenseman of Mann’s profile making the NHL are “essentially 0.00%.” My response to that was that the chances of ANY seventh-round pick making the NHL (playing at least one game) let alone producing value are essentially 0.00%, and I listed the three CHL defensemen between 2009-2018 who played at least a year’s worth of games. It’s not clear how any study on junior players reaching the threshold of appearing in an NHL game is going to overcome the statistical problem of too few occurrences to draw conclusions. I’m not saying that Mann was a good selection or that players selected in the 7th round don’t need to score at a certain level in major juniors to project as NHL contributors. I’m saying that the data don’t appear to allow that conclusion. I assumed they drafted for one skill or attribute and looking at his profile I guessed it was size and the criminally overvalued RH shot.

If Appleyard were so inclined, he could always report back on how CHL profiles translate to reaching the AHL, if that information is available. The number of 7th rounders who make the AHL would almost certainly be sufficient to have the outcomes mean something.

 

[ugiswrong]

A time traveler from Sackville? Fits my 7th rounder profile well enough

 

[scumpup]

Do u think the flyers could sign me if i sent in a tape? 23, 5' 10" 145lbs, Right handed, dont really know how to hold a hockey stick but can skate better than kevin hayes in all aspects even in rollerblades. Whats my projection?

Were we having a conversation? I responded to Appleyard and you responded to me. I thought the meager discussion was subject-based and civil, but as Jerry said to pilot Elaine, if you want to be broken up then we’re broken up.

For everyone who isn’t breaking up with me, I brought those players up because Appleyard wrote that the chances of a CHL defenseman of Mann’s profile making the NHL are “essentially 0.00%.” My response to that was that the chances of ANY seventh-round pick making the NHL (playing at least one game) let alone producing value are essentially 0.00%, and I listed the three CHL defensemen between 2009-2018 who played at least a year’s worth of games. It’s not clear how any study on junior players reaching the threshold of appearing in an NHL game is going to overcome the statistical problem of too few occurrences to draw conclusions. I’m not saying that Mann was a good selection or that players selected in the 7th round don’t need to score at a certain level in major juniors to project as NHL contributors. I’m saying that the data don’t appear to allow that conclusion. I assumed they drafted for one skill or attribute and looking at his profile I guessed it was size and the criminally overvalued RH shot.

If Appleyard were so inclined, he could always report back on how CHL profiles translate to reaching the AHL, if that information is available. The number of 7th rounders who make the AHL would almost certainly be sufficient to have the outcomes mean something.

roughly 7-8% by my napkin math. 1 in 12.5 is very significant in my field.

 

[IronMarshal]

His dad is Asst GM in Ottawa. He looks like Oglethorpe in his draft photo, but he's a big softee. That said, I wish him well in his career as a chef.

That size and soft isn’t going to cut it. I think they envisioned Michkov’s protector here. Maybe he should have a chat with Dave Schultz. “Hey kid, if you want to make it to the shoe, this is what you gotta do. It worked for me.”

 

[deadhead]

I have ~15 years of CHL data on an external hard drive... unfortunately it is at my parents house as when moved country stopped there for a few weeks and not been back in 6 months.

It looks at P/GP, EVP/GP, goal involvement etc, % of team goal involvement.

And off the top of my head such a profile as Mann has never made it to anything more than a fill-in #6-7 D for ~50 games or so. And that is like 1-2 guys in 15 years.

If you dont get ~0.15-0.20 EVP/GP in the CHL in draft year as a Dman (ofc team dependant) you probably dont have the puck-skills to even break-out of the zone in the NHL as a fill-in #6.

Given where he was drafted, that would be a good outcome.
I mean they used #11 on Morin and they didn't even get that out of him.

It's one thing to draft for upside late in the draft with a 5% chance of reaching it, but I'll take a bottom six/3rd pair with a 10-20% chance over a top 6/top 4 with less than 1% chance of reaching it.

If Mann can skate decently, given his size, he may have a role as a cheap #6/#7 which is better than a "skilled" player who never makes it out of the ECHL (Millman).

 

[Pantokrator]

Serious question though, and I am not trying to defend or attack the pick, but why was he ranked by several publications in the top 100 for the draft? Was it just that he is big and there is a hope he can actually develop skill?

 

[Larry44]

Serious question though, and I am not trying to defend or attack the pick, but why was he ranked by several publications in the top 100 for the draft? Was it just that he is big and there is a hope he can actually develop skill?

It seems a mystery. Skating looks awkward. Reminds me of Dave Brown.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

STEAL

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Serious question though, and I am not trying to defend or attack the pick, but why was he ranked by several publications in the top 100 for the draft? Was it just that he is big and there is a hope he can actually develop skill?

Pretty much. Those sites for the most part are of the conventional way of evaluating players.