Prospect Info: Round 7, 199th overall: Matteo Mann, RHD, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)

Beef Invictus

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Dec 21, 2009
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Given where he was drafted, that would be a good outcome.
I mean they used #11 on Morin and they didn't even get that out of him.

It's one thing to draft for upside late in the draft with a 5% chance of reaching it, but I'll take a bottom six/3rd pair with a 10-20% chance over a top 6/top 4 with less than 1% chance of reaching it.

If Mann can skate decently, given his size, he may have a role as a cheap #6/#7 which is better than a "skilled" player who never makes it out of the ECHL (Millman).

There is more to the NHL than being able to move while big.

A guy who gets grotesquely outscored in juniors is never going to make it at higher levels. He can't handle the game where he currently is.

This was Flahr's pick by the way. Tell us more about how Flahr doesn't overvalue size.
 

Appleyard

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Mar 5, 2010
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Given where he was drafted, that would be a good outcome.
I mean they used #11 on Morin and they didn't even get that out of him.

It's one thing to draft for upside late in the draft with a 5% chance of reaching it, but I'll take a bottom six/3rd pair with a 10-20% chance over a top 6/top 4 with less than 1% chance of reaching it.

If Mann can skate decently, given his size, he may have a role as a cheap #6/#7 which is better than a "skilled" player who never makes it out of the ECHL (Millman).

He has less than 1% chance of reaching it though... not 10-20% chance.
 
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Alex K

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LegionOfDoom91

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Jan 25, 2013
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He has less than 1% chance of reaching it though... not 10-20% chance.

Even Morin had a higher offensive output. 0.35 PPG his draft year & 0.44 on his career. A summer birthday too. He was 0.54 & 0.84 in his D+1 & D+2.

Probably shouldn’t have gone #11 even with hindsight but his draft profile is probably that still of a top 60 pick.
 

ValeriKamensky

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May 8, 2013
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What about hating them because they're terrible at hockey?
Really interesting idea, considering most of fans who hate this pick didn’t even know Mann before Flyers made this pick, not to mention watch his full game.

No idea where the trend came from to call any draft/sign big player “old culture”, “dinosaur’s decision” etc
 

Beef Invictus

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Really interesting idea, considering most of fans who hate this pick didn’t even know Mann before Flyers made this pick, not to mention watch his full game.

No idea where the trend came from to call any draft/sign big player “old culture”, “dinosaur’s decision” etc

Look at the stats of everyone on his team. Let me know if you still think taking a guy who was widely outperformed by several draft eligible teammates instead of taking any of those better teammates was a good idea.

Or do you think taking worse players is better then taking better players?
 

FLYguy3911

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Oct 19, 2006
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If anyone can find a statistical profile similar or worse who turned out to be an NHL player, I’m all ears.

Certainly his size in this sport will give him opportunities that small players will never sniff so for that reason alone I will not make any guarantees, but what are the chances he is an effective player at any pro level, much less than NHL?
 

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
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If anyone can find a statistical profile similar or worse who turned out to be an NHL player, I’m all ears.

Certainly his size in this sport will give him opportunities that small players will never sniff so for that reason alone I will not make any guarantees, but what are the chances he is an effective player at any pro level, much less than NHL?

I don't know if people understand that it's impossible to find one that's played >100 NHL Games. There's no one even approaching this level of non-production.

When you try to dig into lower scoring rates, what you often find are names like Jordan Oesterle who was brutal in the USHL at 19, then only averaged 0.3 PPG in college even after getting to ~0.5 for his last season.

Then you've got what are functionally distribution errors clouding the overall pictures. Think tall late bloomers like Brenden Dillon who took until his 3rd CHL season to score at all. But even then, you're still talking about him having a year with 59 in 72 Games.

Even functionally one-way borderline NHLers like Radim Simik and Chad Ruhwedel blew the doors off of that scoring at higher levels of play in their younger years. Hell, Scott Mayfield scored at 2.5x the per game rate in the AHL at 21.

The 9th on his own team tidbit you brought up is even more terrifying than simply trying to put him into historical context. That's year three in the Q.
 

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