Prospect Info: Round 6, Pick 173: Ilya Pautov, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)

[GKJ]

Believe this makes him part of CSKA

Click to read more...

 

[Alex K]

He has 12 points in 8 pre-season games so far. 9 points in his last 3 games.

 

[deadhead]

The thing is too...

it is really not tough to get tape on them today.

I dont have the facilities an NHL team has... but I could - for example - clip together a 13 hour video of Ilya Pautov within 40 minutes ahaha.

There is zero excuse anymore in terms of relying on tournament samples. Unless someone is playing a comically low level you can always get infinite tape of them now.

Pretty much every Euro league all the way down to their u-17 levels have every game fully filmed and available... (u-16 and u-15 is where it starts to get iffy... and the Belarusian u-20 league is an exception too, their games are hard to get your mitts on)



MHL is however a far harder league to produce in than the QMJHL (and tbh the level is higher than the QMJHL as well while being lower scoring)...

but while Pautov is interesting the most likely outcome is probably an okay KHL player down the line. But that is a nice likely outcome for a later pick really.

Yeah, that's my point.
With both players, enough to keep an eye on them (Gendron got jacked around a little last year, not physically ready for AHL, bored with the Q).
Pautov dominates the MHL at 18, good start, but still has to get to KHL by 20 to be on a similar trajectory.
Both long shots, same with Ciernak, etc.
But they have a legitimate shot.

 

[Alex K]

Pautov scored 3 points (1+2) in home opener. Krasnaya Armiya beat Krylya Sovetov 8-2

 

[Alex K]

Nice one-timer

 

[Alex K]

Krasnaya Armiya beat Krylya Sovetov 4-3 in the second game of a back-to-back.
Pautov scored an OT winner.

 

[Rebels57]

Mini Michkov is off to a great start

 

[Tripod]

He is an attractive woman

 

[Embiid]

He's a woman baby!

 

[Alex K]

8-1 win vs SKA-Yunior
Pautov 1 assist

 

[deadhead]

MHL is a bit above the CHL and USHL, a notch below the best NCAA leagues (NCHC, Big East, Big Ten).
D-0, ppg is solid performance, D+1?, maybe 1.25 ppg?
Though if Pautov is for real, he should get promoted at some point this season.

 

[Alex K]

Though if Pautov is for real, he should get promoted at some point this season.

It looks like he's light years away from KHL. I haven't liked his game recently. I'm watching another his game right now and the pre-season impression evaporates every shift. It feels like he loses 100% of puck battles, getting pushed around even at the MHL level. Also he's not a play driver. Maistrenko and Dontsov (went undrafted in 2024 draft) are the real leaders of the team while Pautov looks more like a passanger on the Maistrenko line, who spends a lot of time with the KHL team and without him Pautov doesn't score many points. He shows some flashes of his skill but he looks like a long-term project even for KHL.

I really hope I'm wrong.

 

[Alex K]

Krasnaya Armiya beat Almaz 7-0
Pautov 2 assists

 

[blackjackmulligan]

MHL is a bit above the CHL and USHL, a notch below the best NCAA leagues (NCHC, Big East, Big Ten).
D-0, ppg is solid performance, D+1?, maybe 1.25 ppg?
Though if Pautov is for real, he should get promoted at some point this season.

According to who?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

According to who?

Yeah that just isn’t true. There isn’t an overseas junior league better than the CHL or even USHL. If those kids are often legit prospects they’re getting pushed up to the pro levels over there. Plus in an overall sense there’s just more overall talent in Canada & USA than anywhere else in the world.

 

[deadhead]

According to who?

A couple sites that do NHLe for various leagues.

 

[FLYguy3911]

NHLe is a scoring multiplier, not a league strength indicator. The MHL and Russian hockey in general is low scoring so naturally their scoring multiplier will be higher as their players play in other leagues across the world. Also some people's NHLe models are outdated and use a range of data that isn't relevant to some leagues anymore. It's why Michkov graded out better than Bedard in a lot of models when almost no one would take Michkov over Bedard. It overrates KHL production based on data from a decade+ ago. There's studies that show hockey in Russia is declining so even if that was true at one point (it wasn't) it's unlikely that it still holds true.

Also another example of what happens when stats get in the wrong hands. People have no idea what a stat does or does not represent - going out and making absolute declarations.

 

[Magua]

The MHL is better than the CHL! I wish this all-timer wasn’t buried in a 6th rounder’s thread.

 

[deadhead]

NHLe is a scoring multiplier, not a league strength indicator. The MHL and Russian hockey in general is low scoring so naturally their scoring multiplier will be higher as their players play in other leagues across the world. Also some people's NHLe models are outdated and use a range of data that isn't relevant to some leagues anymore. It's why Michkov graded out better than Bedard in a lot of models when almost no one would take Michkov over Bedard. It overrates KHL production based on data from a decade+ ago. There's studies that show hockey in Russia is declining so even if that was true at one point (it wasn't) it's unlikely that it still holds true.

Also another example of what happens when stats get in the wrong hands. People have no idea what a stat does or does not represent - going out and making absolute declarations.

Since I was using it to put Pautov's MHL stats in perspective, that's exactly how you'd use it to compare scoring in different leagues. As I've pointed out to Bader, that doesn't take into account other factors.

The ones I've looked at are 5 or so years old, so yes, there might be a slight change, though the CHL may also have declined given the shift toward the USHL and NCAA.

The point was his scoring was solid for the MHL and his age.
Like Gendron, he's undersized, doesn't have elite skills and will have to demonstrate that his scoring translates to higher levels.

 

[Alex K]

Krasnaya Armiya vs SKA-1946
Live stream

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

www.youtube.com

 

[Alex K]

Pautov in the 1st period

Positives:
- Rather good at zone exits
- Carries the puck fast enough when has open space
- Showed some flashes of good vision

Negatives:
- Not agressive without the puck but when he does participate in puck battles, loses all of them
- Passing accuracy is just ok
- When he does't have open space he struggles most of the time
- He's a perimeter player

 

[Alex K]

Pautov's measurements history

September 1st 2023: 179 cm, 75 kg.
September 13th 2024: 180 cm, 76 kg.

WTF did he do the whole summer?

 

[blackjackmulligan]

The thing is too...

it is really not tough to get tape on them today.

I dont have the facilities an NHL team has... but I could - for example - clip together a 13 hour video of Ilya Pautov within 40 minutes ahaha.

There is zero excuse anymore in terms of relying on tournament samples. Unless someone is playing a comically low level you can always get infinite tape of them now.

Pretty much every Euro league all the way down to their u-17 levels have every game fully filmed and available... (u-16 and u-15 is where it starts to get iffy... and the Belarusian u-20 league is an exception too, their games are hard to get your mitts on)



MHL is however a far harder league to produce in than the QMJHL (and tbh the level is higher than the QMJHL as well while being lower scoring)...

but while Pautov is interesting the most likely outcome is probably an okay KHL player down the line. But that is a nice likely outcome for a later pick really.

Are there any N/A players in the Russian junior leagues? Minor league?

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Pautov in the 1st period

Positives:
- Rather good at zone exits
- Carries the puck fast enough when has open space
- Showed some flashes of good vision

Negatives:
- Not agressive without the puck but when he does participate in puck battles, loses all of them
- Passing accuracy is just ok
- When he does't have open space he struggles most of the time
- He's a perimeter player

He was a 6th round pick. He is 18 years old.

 

[Alex K]

He was a 6th round pick. He is 18 years old.

That's true, he's a long term project. But I'd like to see some progress in his game. His teammate Dontsov wasn't drafted at all and plays way better right now despite being even smaller than Pautov and playing at C.