Round 2, Vote 10 (HOH Top Centers)

[steve141]

I think I agree with both sides on Larionov's NHL career. The word "underwhelmed" was probably unfair to him, as he showed pretty well for a guy his age. But in the context of this group of players, there are guys who aged even better, and by a significant margin.

Unless someone really goes to bat for his Soviet performance and shows that the posts above are missing something about his performance compared to the NHL stars of the era, I'm personally not likely to think much about Larionov in this round.

Thanks for understanding what I'm getting at. My point is not that Larionov had an exceptional 29+ career, but that it was comparable to many other star forwards. He should be judged on his prime, just like for example Clarke and Trottier, who had less longevity than he did.

Unless I'm missing something I really haven't seen any comparison of a prime Larionov to the prime any of the NHL players in this thread. To determine if he should be ranked higher or lower than for example Hawerchuk we really need to compare their primes. It's not acceptable to say that Larionov should be ranked lower than Hawerchuk because he didn't have any top ten NHL finishes, when Hawerchuk had his last top ten finish when he was 24, and was out of the league by 34. As to who had the better prime then? I don't know, I am hoping for more information.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

A quote from last year's ATD:



http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=60152373&postcount=94

He also had two seasons of useful penalty killing at the end of his career where he was second and third in SH TOI among forwards for PKs that were 8.43% better than the league average. But, it's safe to say that had more to do with the other members of that PK (Mike Ramsey, Craig Ramsay, Bill Hajt) than Perreault becoming a great penalty killer.

A nice fine by bubba but it would have been a lot more useful had he included the date or link to the article.

Edit: I pm'd bubba to ask for the above info

 

[MXD]

Thanks for understanding what I'm getting at. My point is not that Larionov had an exceptional 29+ career, but that it was comparable to many other star forwards. He should be judged on his prime, just like for example Clarke and Trottier, who had less longevity than he did.

Unless I'm missing something I really haven't seen any comparison of a prime Larionov to the prime any of the NHL players in this thread. To determine if he should be ranked higher or lower than for example Hawerchuk we really need to compare their primes. It's not acceptable to say that Larionov should be ranked lower than Hawerchuk because he didn't have any top ten NHL finishes, when Hawerchuk had his last top ten finish when he was 24, and was out of the league by 34. As to who had the better prime then? I don't know, I am hoping for more information.

I don't think anybody said such a thing either.

Let's be honest this round, shall we ? Nobody will rank Hawerchuk ahead of Larionov because of that. There is cause for concern about Larionovs play in the USSR. But he also shouldn't be held to the Makarov standards either; had he met them, he'd already be in since round 5 at the very most.

 

[BraveCanadian]

A nice fine by bubba but it would have been a lot more useful had he included the date or link to the article.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...sUdAAAAIBAJ&sjid=-GEEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5516,4645402

Also talks about his increased dedication to conditioning and (again) compares him to Lemieux

 

[BraveCanadian]

I don't think anybody said such a thing either.

Let's be honest this round, shall we ? Nobody will rank Hawerchuk ahead of Larionov because of that.

One thing to keep in mind regarding Hawerchuk was that it was a degenerative hip that slowed him down and then forced him to retire.

It wasn't so much a decline in ability but a decline in body.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Here's what the scouting reports said Perreault defensively. They suggest he was weak defensively early in his career and got better when Bowman arrived.

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1979
A quiet type who shuns publicity...Also shuns defense

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1980
Often critcized for lack of interest in defense and failure to make big plays during playoffs

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1981
What's more, Bowman convinced him to develop into more of a complete player...Perreault discovered it's sometimes fun to check and play team defense, too

complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1982
Once a liability defensively, he's improved his total game

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1983
Has rounded into an adequate defensive player

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1984
Has improved his defensive play

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1985
Better all-around player than he was early in his career

Complete Handbook or Pro Hockey 1986
Has developed into better defensive forward under coaching of Scotty Bowman

 

[MXD]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Hawerchuk was that it was a degenerative hip that slowed him down and then forced him to retire.

It wasn't so much a decline in ability but a decline in body.

Yeah... But many suffered body decline and were judged accordingly. One could also argue that Hayley Wickenheiser would already be in if she was a he...

 

[BraveCanadian]

Here's what the scouting reports said Perreault defensively. They suggest he was weak defensively early in his career and got better when Bowman arrived.

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1979
A quiet type who shuns publicity...Also shuns defense

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1980
Often critcized for lack of interest in defense and failure to make big plays during playoffs

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1981
What's more, Bowman convinced him to develop into more of a complete player...Perreault discovered it's sometimes fun to check and play team defense, too

complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1982
Once a liability defensively, he's improved his total game

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1983
Has rounded into an adequate defensive player

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1984
Has improved his defensive play

Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey 1985
Better all-around player than he was early in his career

Complete Handbook or Pro Hockey 1986
Has developed into better defensive forward under coaching of Scotty Bowman

I'd say that is pretty good evidence that he picked up his play on the other side of the puck in his 30s.

It certainly paints a better picture of him in his later career than I honestly remember.. then again who really followed Buffalo anyways?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Hawerchuk was that it was a degenerative hip that slowed him down and then forced him to retire.

It wasn't so much a decline in ability but a decline in body.

Thanks for the info but I put this in the same category as declining ability. Would be different if he had a freak car accident or something along those lines. A degenerative hip is a genetic issue tho, that I put in the same category as other natural abilities like speed, coordination, etc.

 

[tarheelhockey]

But he also shouldn't be held to the Makarov standards either; had he met them, he'd already be in since round 5 at the very most.

This is exactly what I find slightly unsettling about the criticism of Larionov's role on KLM. He was obviously not going to rank 1st in scoring very often on THAT line. It's similar to the positions of Delvecchio and Oates on their lines during their scoring prime. I'd rather know where he ranked in relation to Soviet centers as a whole.


RS, thanks for providing the scouting report info on Perreault.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Thanks for the info but I put this in the same category as declining ability. Would be different if he had a freak car accident or something along those lines. A degenerative hip is a genetic issue tho, that I put in the same category as other natural abilities like speed, coordination, etc.

In his case I don't think it was genetic it was an injury that then became arthritic or something.

In any case, I agree we still have to judge players on what they actually accomplished.

I was just pointing out that Hawerchuk seemed to trail off faster because of it than he would have otherwise been expected to -- since he was being compared to Larionov based on longevity.

 

[steve141]

If you want this table to have any value at all, add a games played column, and a point-per-game column. Do that, and I almost guarantee Larionov is in the bottom 10, maybe bottom 5 in PPG.

Yes, compare the PPG of a guy who played until he was 43, to guys who retired at 29, sounds like a good idea.

Again, all I'm asking is that you evaluate Larionov against players his own age. Evaluate his work in his 20s against other 20 year olds, and his work in his 30s against other players his age. The decline is incredibly fast between 30 and 35 for most players, pretending like it isn't won't get us any further.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Igor Larionov vs Jacques Lemaire

Thanks for understanding what I'm getting at. My point is not that Larionov had an exceptional 29+ career, but that it was comparable to many other star forwards. He should be judged on his prime, just like for example Clarke and Trottier, who had less longevity than he did.

Unless I'm missing something I really haven't seen any comparison of a prime Larionov to the prime any of the NHL players in this thread. To determine if he should be ranked higher or lower than for example Hawerchuk we really need to compare their primes. It's not acceptable to say that Larionov should be ranked lower than Hawerchuk because he didn't have any top ten NHL finishes, when Hawerchuk had his last top ten finish when he was 24, and was out of the league by 34. As to who had the better prime then? I don't know, I am hoping for more information.

If readers are looking for a Soviet Larionov comparable to an NHL player it would be Jacques Lemaire. Hence Bowman's appreciation.

Difference would be that Lemaire had a bit more versatility - could play LW and diversity - better scorer with a lethal slapshot in his early years that he rarely used at center. Larionov had better longevity.

Both were excellent at integrating a team - recognizing the team needs and applying their strong points to make the team better and successful.

 

[MXD]

If readers are looking for a Soviet Larionov comparable to an NHL player it would be Jacques Lemaire. Hence Bowman's appreciation.

Difference would be that Lemaire had a bit more versatility - could play LW and diversity - better scorer with a lethal slapshot in his early years that he rarely used at center. Larionov had better longevity.

Both were excellent at integrating a team - recognizing the team needs and applying their strong points to make the team better and successful.

That's mostly a mostly enlightening. Not sure how to use this info in the current context though.

 

[MXD]

Simple curiosity, not that related to the curent round : Where would you rank Syd How's, had he been deemed a C? (Not only in this round... But as a whole as well if parameters set in this round doesn't apply).

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS

Here are the results of the "Vs. X" offensive benchmarking:

METHOD ONE: seven season analysis

Player|Result
Adam Oates | 90.2
Jean Ratelle | 88.5
Dale Hawerchuk | 85.9
Eric Lindros | 85.4
Alex Delvecchio | 84.9
Gilbert Perreault | 84.6
Pavel Datsyuk | 78.9
Hooley Smith | 78.8
Evgeni Malkin | 73.2
Igor Larionov | 53.7

The table has been updated through 2013. Four important notes:

• Larionov didn't play in the NHL until he was 29 and was past his offensive peak.
• Bowie never played in the NHL and his results have been excluded.
• Malkin has only played seven NHL seasons and had significant injuries during two of them, which really hurts his score (I'm excluding 2014 which is in progress).
• The "Vs X" analysis only looks at scoring statistics - important context such as linemates, team style (conservative vs. run and gun), etc. are not taken into account.

Despite Lindros's short, injury plagued career, his peak offensive value was still comparable to Hawerchuk and Perreault. Newly-eligible Ratelle jumps to 2nd place; I'm somewhat surprised that he ranks ahead of the great Jet and Sabre.

Thanks for posting these tables, HO. I just want to say that I think the VsX benchmarks you list seem to actually only go through 2012.

Malkin's number through 2012-13 is 80.8. Datsyuk's is almost certainly higher than you have listed here too (I don't have the ability to quickly calculate it right now).

 

[seventieslord]

Simple curiosity, not that related to the curent round : Where would you rank Syd How's, had he been deemed a C? (Not only in this round... But as a whole as well if parameters set in this round doesn't apply).

I am a huge Howe fan, and I don't think I'd vote him in this round. He's be fairly close, though. I imagine I'd put him about 35th on a wingers list.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

After getting some newfound appreciation for Modano about three years ago I always had him ahead. but Datsyuk has closed the gap and they're basically equals at this point, IMO. I mean, there's no doubt Datsyuk was better defensively, right? And offensively his top-5 or so seasons are better, at least by rankings and percentages. Is it just longevity that keeps Modano ahead at this point for you? That would be uncharacteristic.
.

Maybe it's unfair to Datsyuk, but I saw him as something of a 2-year wonder in the regular season. Okay, that's unfair, but I don't think he was ever again as good as he was in 2007-08 and 2008-09. Maybe I'm not taking into account his strong season last year well enough. I thought Modano had a good 5-6 year period when he was one of the best centers in the league, going head to head with the best centers in the Western Conference and holding his own. I also thought Modano was more important to his team in the playoffs than Datsyuk was when the Wings went far.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Soviet All-Star Center 1970-1988

1970: Alexander Maltsev
1971: Alexander Maltsev
1972: Alexander Maltsev
1973: Vladimir Petrov
1974: Alexander Maltsev
1975: Vladimir Petrov
1976: Valeri Kharlamov (?)
1977: Vladimir Petrov
1978: Alexander Maltsev
1979: Vladimir Petrov
1980: Alexander Maltsev
1981: Alexander Maltsev
1982: Viktor Shalimov
1983: Igor Larionov
1984: Nikolai Drozdetsky (?)
1985: Anatoli Semenov
1986: Igor Larionov
1987: Igor Larionov
1988: Igor Larionov

1989 is when Communism began to fall and there were no All-Star Teams. 1990 was Larionov's first year in the NHL.

I am not sure if Kharlamov actually played center in 1976 or if they just gave him the spot to make room for Yakushev on LW. Likewise, I thought Drozdetsky was a wing, but perhaps they stuck him at C on the AS team to keep Krutov and Makarov. It seems some of these seasons were just 3 forwards not by position, but usually they kept to the LW-C-RW thing.

Maltsev and Petrov owned the All-Star center spot in every year from 1970-1981 except for when the great Valeri Kharlamov was strangely given the spot in 1976.

Larionov, on the other hand? He was an All-Star in 1983 at the age of 22, but at the ages of 23 and 24, he lost out on the All-Star spot to two guys who have no chance at making our list at any position. He had a nice run from ages 25-27, however, even winning Soviet Player of the Year in 1988.

By contrast, Makarov was an All-Star every year from 1979 to 1988, and Krutov was an All-Star every year from 1982 to 1988.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Good catch TDMM, here's the 7 and 10 year tables updated with Malkin and Datsyuk's 2013 scores.

You had Malkin at 80.8, but I have 80.7. This doesn't matter really, but showing my work. I have Malkin at 112.37, 102.73, 100, 74.56, 70.64, 57.89, 37.37 which weighted comes out to 80.668

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS

Here are the results of the "Vs. X" offensive benchmarking:

METHOD ONE: seven season analysis

Player|Result
Adam Oates | 90.2
Jean Ratelle | 88.5
Dale Hawerchuk | 85.9
Eric Lindros | 85.4
Alex Delvecchio | 84.9
Gilbert Perreault | 84.6
Pavel Datsyuk | 82
Evgeni Malkin | 80.7
Hooley Smith | 78.8
Igor Larionov | 53.7

METHOD TWO: ten season analysis

Player|Result
Adam Oates | 87
Jean Ratelle | 84.4
Alex Delvecchio | 83.3
Dale Hawerchuk | 82.4
Gilbert Perreault | 80.8
Eric Lindros | 77.8
Pavel Datsyuk | 76
Hooley Smith | 71.6
Evgeni Malkin | 60.6
Igor Larionov | 51.1

 

[steve141]

Maybe it's unfair to Datsyuk, but I saw him as something of a 2-year wonder in the regular season. Okay, that's unfair, but I don't think he was ever again as good as he was in 2007-08 and 2008-09. Maybe I'm not taking into account his strong season last year well enough. I thought Modano had a good 5-6 year period when he was one of the best centers in the league, going head to head with the best centers in the Western Conference and holding his own. I also thought Modano was more important to his team in the playoffs than Datsyuk was when the Wings went far.

Does anyone have numbers for how the Red Wings have done without Datsyuk vs without Zetterberg? I think it would be hard to evaluate them in isolation since they've been playing so much together for 11 years. My subjective impression is that the team struggles more when Zetterberg is out than when Datsyuk is out, but I may be wrong. I've always seen Datsyuk as the more skilled, but Zetterberg as the harder worker.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Good catch TDMM, here's the 7 and 10 year tables updated with Malkin and Datsyuk's 2013 scores.

You had Malkin at 80.8, but I have 80.7. This doesn't matter really, but showing my work. I have Malkin at 112.37, 102.73, 100, 74.56, 70.64, 57.89, 37.37 which weighted comes out to 80.668

Thanks. I'm sure your number is accurate. I don't have a spreadsheet full of data, so I had to calculate Malkin's number from scratch and probably made a minor rounding error somewhere

Out of curiosity, how high does Malkin go if you pretend 2013-14 ends today? He's currently sitting at 11th in NHL scoring (3rd in PPG, but use his total scoring number). Does 2013-14 change Datsyuk at all? I realize this is projecting the future somewhat, but:

1) Teams have played between 44 and 48 games each, basically as long as a lockout season or WW2 era NHL season, so it's a decent sample

2) Malkin and Datsyuk each missed about 10 games in the first half of the season, so this form of "projection" would assume they would miss games at the same pace through the full season... basically I find it unlikely to give them too much credit.

Like I said before, I don't think Malkin should be given full credit for 2013-14, but IMO, he should be given SOME credit, since with a bit more than half the season down, he is on pace for his 4th best season ever.

Edit: I don't think these numbers should be put in the table like they actually happened, but I would like to see them.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Here's my one problem with Datsyuk's defensive reputation, when the Red Wings wanted to shut down Crosby in 2009 it was Zeterberg matched against him. Datsyuk won his second Selke that year, yet Babcock felt his teammate was a better choice for this role. Is this a legitimate knock against Datsyuk's defensive reputation?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Here's my one problem with Datsyuk's defensive reputation, when the Red Wings wanted to shut down Crosby in 2009 it was Zeterberg matched against him. Datsyuk won his second Selke that year, yet Babcock felt his teammate was a better choice for this role. Is this a legitimate knock against Datsyuk's defensive reputation?

IMO, yes. I think there is a difference between defending a single player in the playoffs and defending the entire neutral zone. Datsyuk is one of the best ever at defending the entire neutral zone, but I think one could argue that in the playoffs, when you see the same team for up to 7 games in a row, matching up against an individual superstar is more important.

 

[BraveCanadian]

IMO, yes. I think there is a difference between defending a single player in the playoffs and defending the entire neutral zone. Datsyuk is one of the best ever at defending the entire neutral zone, but I think one could argue that in the playoffs, when you see the same team for up to 7 games in a row, matching up against an individual superstar is more important.

Although I kind of agree.. if Datsyuk stops the attack in the neutral zone it never gets to the point where the individual matchup matters.