Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 23: Tyson Foerster, RW, Barrie (OHL)

[JojoTheWhale]

We will likely have a similar success rate under Fletcher as we did under Hextall unless there's a massive overhaul of the scouting department.

I'm not sure I would go as far as likely, although it's certainly a reasonable possibility.

Flow of information between scouts and their head tends to be two ways. Sometimes scouts choose targets and sometimes they're handed down from above. In some (but not all) orgs, scouting priorities are as well, be it through archetypes, skills, or numerical thresholds.

But more to the point, someone is synthesizing the individual parts of this process into a draft board. Based on other situations of which I am aware, I would guess this is more Flahr than Fletcher, but I have no specific knowledge of how the Flyers operate. Sorting through all of the data points gathered to get to the truth is both a skill and a talent. Pryor's role is not brought up all that much anymore, but it should be.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

2016 - Rubtsov, Laberge
2017 - Potentially Patrick
2018 - Potentially O'Brien, Ginning

5 picks in the top 2 rounds between 2016 and 2018 that have cloudy futures or are flat-out busts. He wasnt perfect. Overall though? Very good. Heres the thing though. Most of the scouts are the same and they do the heavy lifting for the GMs.

We will likely have a similar success rate under Fletcher as we did under Hextall unless there's a massive overhaul of the scouting department.

You really cannot fault him for taking Patrick. Any team would of taken him there. Not Hextall’s fault the kid has had shit luck.

 

[Rebels57]

Profile and information gathered by @MiamiScreamingEagles

Tyson Foerster
2019-20 Team: Barrie Colts (#71)
Date of Birth: January 18, 2002
Place of Birth: Alliston, ON, Canada
Ht: 6’1” Wt: 194 lbs
Shoots: Right
Position: Center/Wing
NHL Draft Eligibility: 2020 first-year eligible

Source: Tyson Foerster at eliteprospects.com​

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Foerster's push toward being top NHL prospect got some help from his brother - BarrieToday.com

Wherever Dawson Foerster went, younger brother Tyson wasn't too far behind.

"Even being two years younger, he was always trying to keep up with Dawson and his buddies," Glen

Foerster recalled of his sons growing up, who could often be found playing hockey in the basement or out on the driveway. "It was a good push for him, always just wanting to try and be better than his brother."

Next week, Barrie Colts forward Tyson Foerster is expected to hear his name called in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft. One of the elite scorers in the draft, Foerster's life-long dream is just around the corner.

But back in those days growing up in Alliston, Tyson just wanted to be like his big brother. When he saw Dawson on the ice playing hockey, a two-year-old Tyson started skating.

"Him and his brother were pretty close growing up," the father remembered of his boys during an interview with BarrieToday. "In every sport, (Tyson) was always pushing and pushing and wanted to be better than his brother, playing a bit of baseball, some lacrosse, ball hockey. A bit of everything. He just always wanted to be the better person."

Glen built a little floor hockey rink for his sons in the basement. They would spend hours running around on a floor that had the lines painted on it along with two nets that got pretty worn down over the years. From mini sticks at first to regular hockey sticks, there was no shortage of action.

As you could imagine, every game between the two siblings was a must-win. Tyson laughs as he recalls just how competitive things got between the two.

"One of us would always come up crying when we were little," recalls the now-18-year-old Foerster. "I was always trying to beat him. I always looked up to him when I was little. He was always better than me, but once I started getting older I started taking over more and more, so it kind of pushed me more."

Which is why Tyson will be thrilled having his brother and the rest of his family right beside him at home on that special day next Tuesday when the draft will be held virtually for the first time in NHL history.​

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His shot really is ludicrous

 

[Rebels57]

I'm not sure I would go as far as likely, although it's certainly a reasonable possibility.

Flow of information between scouts and their head tends to be two ways. Sometimes scouts choose targets and sometimes they're handed down from above. In some (but not all) orgs, scouting priorities are as well, be it through archetypes, skills, or numerical thresholds.

But more to the point, someone is synthesizing the individual parts of this process into a draft board. Based on other situations of which I am aware, I would guess this is more Flahr than Fletcher, but I have no specific knowledge of how the Flyers operate. Sorting through all of the data points gathered to get to the truth is both a skill and a talent. Pryor's role is not brought up all that much anymore, but it should be.

All fair points.

 

[deadhead]

Well, there's a change in philosophy with Fletcher/Flahr, but not a drastic one, Hextall took TK, for example.
The priorities seem to be similar, that is, both highly value intangibles, IQ, work ethic, compete level as much as speed and skill.

We can put to rest that Fletcher likes big, slow players, he had a mix in Minnesota drafts and a mix here.
York, Brink and Andre are all short, but both D-men are stout for their height, and Brink is thicker than Caufield.
Attard and Foerster are full size.

What doesn't seem to be valued is the fast, skilled player with average IQ and a lack of enthusiasm for defense or forechecking.

 

[Striiker]

Patrick was not even remotely close to a mistake and neither Rubtsov nor Laberge were bad picks based on what was known at the time. He just didn’t continue improving after the draft.

Hextall absolutely made mistakes (Ginning was a trash choice and a few other later round ones were suspect at the time of being picked) but he didn’t screw up the ones that mattered most. As BP said, taking a risk on a cieling guy like JOB is perfectly fine after taking a pretty safe guy like Farabee (in a good way, not just high floor).

Hextall also underatood the importance of quantity and didn’t waste picks for no reason like Fletcher does.

 

[deadhead]

Hextall was rebuilding a team with Akeson, Leier and Hagg as top 10 prospects. He needed quantity.

Fletcher is tweaking a playoff caliber team with a deep pipeline with players in the mid -20s who'd be top 10 5 years ago - so he's more focused on targeting players than just filling out the Phantom roster a few years from now.

 

[BernieParent]

You really cannot fault him for taking Patrick. Any team would of taken him there. Not Hextall’s fault the kid has had shit luck.

Agreed. It is revisionist history to question picking Patrick at #2.

September 2016: Craig Button identified Patrick as the clear #1 and Bob McKenzie called it the ‘Nolan Patrick Draft’, even with his sports hernia surgery that July.
Craig’s List: Nolan Patrick stands above the rest - TSN.ca
McKenzie's pre-season ranking: The 'Nolan Patrick Draft'

April 27, 2017: Patrick remained No. 1 on TSN’s Top 15 ranking, but barely over Hischier. 12 of 23 scouts chose Patrick and Patrick was ranked 2nd by all 11 scouts who picked Hischier as 1st. This was despite Patrick’s multiple injuries that significantly shortened his season.
Patrick, Hischier in tight race for No. 1 in TSN draft ranking

From May 23rd to June 19th, Patrick was ranked 1st by 8 of 12 projections, and was 2nd in the other 4.
2017 NHL Draft Rankings

No mention of Patrick's family or personal history of migraine disorder.

 

[BernieParent]

JOB remains a curious prospect. I never thought he was a swing for the fences player (I categorized him as typical Flyers high floor-mid ceiling at the time; 2RW upside), he was ranked in the 25-35 range so he wasn't really a reach, and whether he actually is a whiff or not remains to be seen.

Against statistical rationale, I still would consider ranking him above Foerster. I watched several of his Providence games early on, and he looked good. If he does flop in basically his prove it year, then such are the perils of drafting out of high school hockey. If there was a risk to him, it was that. But I don't know where the flaw is in his skill-set. He remains a unique case study.

Thanks, Magua. I creatively used "swing for the fences" in terms of projecting O'Brien's skill level against high school competition without the same level of evidence as usual 1st rounders. He was definitely a reach against Central Scouting's ranking of 32, though not a Shakir Mukhamadullin-level reach.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The drafts will not see a similar success rate under Fletcher as they did under Hextall if they don't prioritize pick volume. I get it they are competing now so the draft picks are the first things to go but just because you are competing doesn't mean you should begin to neglect the draft. Toronto who didn't have a first round pick last month, with all of their cap problems, just walked out of the draft with 12 new players. You can't have 5 player drafts and expect to outdraft the rest of the league. That's not realistic. Especially when your first round pick isn't exactly flawless.

 

[deadhead]

The drafts will not see a similar success rate under Fletcher as they did under Hextall if they don't prioritize pick volume. I get it they are competing now so the draft picks are the first things to go but just because you are competing doesn't mean you should begin to neglect the draft. Toronto who didn't have a first round pick last month, with all of their cap problems, just walked out of the draft with 12 new players. You can't have 5 player drafts and expect to outdraft the rest of the league. That's not realistic. Especially when your first round pick isn't exactly flawless.

The odds of success fall off so drastically that a few high picks grossly outweigh a lot of late round picks.
If they get one starter and one solid backup (bottom 6/3rd pair types) each draft they're doing fine, more than that, at the top of the league.
Last year: York, Brink, Attard, Millman, who cares what other picks they had?
This year: Foerster, Andrae, Wisdom, Desnoyres, McClennon, if the first two are top starters, who cares about the rest?
While it's nice to have more "lottery tickets," let's not overvalue them.

It's nice to have long lists of prospects, but most will end up floating around the NHL and maybe have solid AHL careers.
Your top 9/top 4 dictate the success of your team, not your 13th forward.
Third round or later playing for the Flyers from the last 10 drafts:
2016: Twarynski, Bunnaman
2015: Myers (UDFA)
2014: Lindblom (Friedman)
2012: Ghost
2011: Cousins (3 teams and RFA contract wasn't picked up)
2010: McGinn

So we're talking Ghost and Lindblom.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Just joking. Though I think Fletcher did fine today and yesterday.

Was it because he said they committed to the best player available at each pick?

 

[freakydallas13]

I'm not sure I would go as far as likely, although it's certainly a reasonable possibility.

Flow of information between scouts and their head tends to be two ways. Sometimes scouts choose targets and sometimes they're handed down from above. In some (but not all) orgs, scouting priorities are as well, be it through archetypes, skills, or numerical thresholds.

But more to the point, someone is synthesizing the individual parts of this process into a draft board. Based on other situations of which I am aware, I would guess this is more Flahr than Fletcher, but I have no specific knowledge of how the Flyers operate. Sorting through all of the data points gathered to get to the truth is both a skill and a talent. Pryor's role is not brought up all that much anymore, but it should be.

I still think something changed with forward development after Don Luce left. Dude had success in Buffalo before us, then here, and is now having success with the Leafs since 2015.

Letting him go feels like it was a mistake.



I would also like to be on record as never liking the JOB pick, but will happily eat crow if he becomes a useful player for the flyers.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hextall whiffed at #2 overall with Patrick, whiffed at O’Brien at #19. Two big misses. Laberge at 36 was bad. The guy was no genius.

 

[BritainStix]

Obrien is fair, but the others aren't misses. Hindsight is wonderful.

Patrick has a scrambled noodle, Laberge got his noodle scrambled.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Hextall whiffed at #2 overall with Patrick, whiffed at O’Brien at #19. Two big misses. Laberge at 36 was bad. The guy was no genius.

Hextall wasn't a genius because Patrick has a migraine disorder? Hextall wasn't a genius because Laberge got badly concussed by a disgusting headshot and wasn't the same since? You could even argue that Jay wasn't the same since his concussion.

I mean come on buddy. There are ways to criticize Hextall, but this isn't it.

 

[sa cyred]

Im far from a Hextall fan, but saying he "whiffed" with Patrick is insane. He was consensus #2. Every other team would have chosen him. Other than another team being able to see the future, Patrick would have gone 2nd.

I am far from labeling Patrick a bust though. I liked the risk of the OB pick even though it hasnt worked out yet. This year will be big for him.

 

[Rebels57]

The drafts will not see a similar success rate under Fletcher as they did under Hextall if they don't prioritize pick volume. I get it they are competing now so the draft picks are the first things to go but just because you are competing doesn't mean you should begin to neglect the draft. Toronto who didn't have a first round pick last month, with all of their cap problems, just walked out of the draft with 12 new players. You can't have 5 player drafts and expect to outdraft the rest of the league. That's not realistic. Especially when your first round pick isn't exactly flawless.

Also true. Volume is important. I dont mind sacrificing some volume to trade up for guys they like a lot like they did today but they cant be wasting any more picks on bums like Grant & Thompson. Preferably not 2nds on players of Brauns calibre either. Now that we are in win mode, picks WILL be moved at times though. They just need to be moved for players that actually improve the team, unlike Grompson.

 

[Bob Clarke Fan Club]

Hextall whiffed at #2 overall with Patrick, whiffed at O’Brien at #19. Two big misses. Laberge at 36 was bad. The guy was no genius.

That's an odd view on the Patrick pick and I agree with a lot of your opinions on here. Hexxy can't control migraines and not sure how many GM's would've traded back or took another player there. Especially with the pipeline of defensemen he'd already accumulated.

 

[Rebels57]

Im far from a Hextall fan, but saying he "whiffed" with Patrick is insane. He was consensus #2. Every other team would have chosen him. Other than another team being able to see the future, Patrick would have gone 2nd.

I am far from labeling Patrick a bust though. I liked the risk of the OB pick even though it hasnt worked out yet. This year will be big for him.

No one ever said Hextall whiffed on Patrick. Bottom line is though, 5 picks in the top 2 rounds over 3 years between 2016 and 2018 that did not help the team last season and might not next season either. Thats a big blow.

 

[ajgoal]

No one ever said Hextall whiffed on Patrick. Bottom line is though, 5 picks in the top 2 rounds over 3 years between 2016 and 2018 that did not help the team last season and might not next season either. Thats a big blow.

Actually, someone used those exact words, but you may not be able to see the quote.

 

[sa cyred]

No one ever said Hextall whiffed on Patrick. Bottom line is though, 5 picks in the top 2 rounds over 3 years between 2016 and 2018 that did not help the team last season and might not next season either. Thats a big blow.

Like ajgoal said, someone did say that 3 posts above mine. I didnt quote them though

 

[ajgoal]

Like ajgoal said, someone did say that 3 posts above mine. I didnt quote them though

It's morning and I don't drink coffee.

 

[orangey]

Born 2002. Yikes.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hextall wasn't a genius because Patrick has a migraine disorder? Hextall wasn't a genius because Laberge got badly concussed by a disgusting headshot and wasn't the same since? You could even argue that Jay wasn't the same since his concussion.

I mean come on buddy. There are ways to criticize Hextall, but this isn't it.

Try to paint it however you want, Patrick was a mistake at #2. The next three selections were Heiskanen, Makar, Pettersson. We've already heard that the Flyers were aware of Patrick's migraine history. They were aware of his two core surgeries. We've heard he wasn't a consensus pick among their own scouting staff.

Patrick at 2 was a miss by Hextall. So was O'Brien at 19. Rubtsov at 22. Laberge at 36.