Take this as a compliment, of all the high picks and highly ranked prospects in recent drafts, this was the guy I was shuddering might be picked by a Metro team.
I normally don't care who has the first pick, just as long as they are kept in the Metro. But even some of them, it's not too big of a deal. And as good as Bedard was, I think there's a limit with him that doesn't worry me too much. He'll be very good, but he doesn't worry me. The only guy since Dahlin that I really was hoping wouldn't be picked by a Metro team was Michkov, and that's because I think his potential is the best player in the world and a true generational player. I'm not guaranteeing that's what he becomes. He'll have to prove that out over the course of his career, but having followed him the last few years, I think he's probably the most fascinating hockey player to emerge in a while.
What is so fascinating about Michkov is that he just has an otherworldly ability to find the net. He knows when the goalie isn't well-positioned, he knows when the puck will deflect to a certain area, he knows when a defenseman is sleeping at the back door, he has an incredible sense of spacing of where he is, where the net is, where other players are. He also has a great release. It's very deceptive. He beats goalies clean without having scary shooting power, although his shooting power is also decent. And he obviously has unbelievable stick-skills too, and can score by undressing the whole defense and goalie. This guy just has a knack for scoring goals. It's not in the way that you see from Ovechkin blasting shots on the power play or Laine or Stamkos, or even Bedard. Bedard reminds me of a smaller Stamkos because of the shot. It's very heavy and powerful. He can score from distance. Michkov doesn't score his goals like that.
If you want to take a goal-scorer in the current NHL who his goal-scoring reminds me of the most, it's Matthews. Matthews is the best in the league at scoring goals within the vicinity of the net of the best 5 or 10 goalscorers within the NHL. He still can beat goalies clean from a little longer distance, and Michkov can too, but a disproportionate amount of his goal-scoring damage is near the net. And obviously there are plenty of differences. I'm not saying Michkov reminds me of Matthews, but the goal-scoring element is similar. You could also say there's some Kucherov with the overall hockey sense, playmaking, and stick-skills for a 5'10 winger that isn't blazing fast. There's probably no real great comparison out there for him. He's his own unique player.
Beyond the skillset, I can't get past that this guy always rises to the challenge. Any league you put him in, he breaks records. There are some athletes like that who you just know are destined for greatness because they keep setting the bar higher and higher, despite what challenge you might think is ahead of them. In terms of the last 3 or 4 years of his hockey career, Michkov has struggled no where. People tried to say last season that he wasn't good enough to get it done in the KHL. They used some of his SKA matches where he'd get like 2 or 3 shifts against him, and said that was proof. But that's just unrealistic. Can't expect a guy to score every game when they don't take a regular shift. When he was loaned to Sochi, he proved that he was still that dude. He set more records. He was as good as we thought he was.
And more specifically, his records are goal records. Putting the puck in the net is the most important skill in the game. Having a guy who is better than everyone else at that could result in a guy being the best player in the world. For many years, that's why Ovechkin was the best or second best player in the world, depending on how you viewed him compared to Crosby. So I obviously think there are differences between him and Ovechkin, but being that generational goal-scorer (even more so than like a Matthews) is what I think could be his ceiling. Michkov could be that guy that is pushing 60-70 goals per season. It might sound lofty, but he's been doing that everywhere else. He's been the most accomplished and overall best prospect to come from Russia since Ovechkin, why can't he be that guy? All he's shown us is that he is that guy. Maybe he'll fall short of that, but even if he does, he should still be a star. I'm struggling to see him be worse than Kucherov level.
As for the war, the character questions, the contract, stuff like that, I realize this is a part of the equation, but I think when you add it all up, the risk is worth it at #2 in the draft. #7? A joke that five other teams made such a mistake. With the contract, I think there's some real misconception with Russian players. People act like there's a real chance they'll never come to the NHL. I know you guys had that problem with Fedotov, so it's easy for your mind to go to what you experienced with your own team, but respectfully he's not one of the best Russians of his generation and the situations aren't remotely the same. The fact of the matter is that all the best Russian players since like the Cold War have played in the NHL, and in the last 10-15 years, all of them have come no later than their early/mid 20's.
It's a different era. Yeah, relations might not be good between Russia and USA/Canada, but the Russian players still know the possibility for them in the NHL. Michkov will absolutely come over to the NHL rather quickly. I assume it'll be right away when his contract is up. He'll probably be the best player in the KHL and ready for a bigger challenge, but even if he signs for like another two years (I don't think he will), he's likely stepping into the NHL as one of the best wingers in the game, so I think the wait is worth it, whenever he comes.
I think getting him on your team so soon isn't as important as most think. Regardless of whether jobs are on the line or not, the fact of the matter is that the majority of top 10 prospects, especially those not picked #1, are not better than middle of the lineup players before year 4 or 5. If you look back at the 2019 and 2020 drafts, which are the drafts 4 and 3 seasons removed, which is the crux of the window people discuss with Michkov, there are like 6 or so of the 2-10 drafted players in those two drafts that are more than middle of the lineup players by that point. The rest, for various reasons, aren't. They could get injured, they could bust, maybe the opportunity isn't there, maybe it's a combination of everything.
Draft picks are not sure-things. Many of them don't end up what the hope is on draft day, so I think getting a guy you can be pretty sure of what his hockey ability will become relative to pretty much any other draft-eligible prospect is more valuable than most people will admit. Sure, there's a chance you get the odd Zegras or Seider or Stuetzle that can contribute sooner, but really the majority of them aren't any better in year 3 than the average dude you sign off the street for 3 million in free agency that changes teams every few years.
As for his character, I think a lot of this has been blown way out of proportion. None of this even came up until the draft starting coming into focus. Funny how NHL affiliation for a player starts to bring out this tribalism. The hockey world didn't care enough to bring this stuff up when he was only some young Russian hockey prodigy with no connection to NA hockey. The only two things out there against him are one anonymous quote from a teammate that says he's "me, me, me" and then one scout that thought he had an attitude. Some people act like the character concerns are that he's some real criminal or something. If it's true that he's "me, me, me", is that really such a big deal? You guys have DeAngelo, so you know what a player with some character concerns is like. Evander Kane also has played in the NHL for a long time. The NHL certainly has a place for players with character concerns, and DeAngelo/Kane are good players. They aren't great players.
There are plenty of star athletes out there with a cocky attitude. If they produce, none of that stuff matters. But I wouldn't rule out that it's almost entirely overblown because people are trying to cover their tracks for Michkov being passed over by so many teams, and the general polarization about this player with many aspects like the war, his contract, and a general Russian factor. Russian players can sometimes get an unfair reputation, and sometimes it effects their draft stock.
As for the war, I'm not going to play colonel and forecast for you what might happen. That stuff can upend a lot in this world and transcends hockey. I'm not going to tell you it's impossible that Michkov is kidnapped or he's drafted into the Russian army or he's banned from the NHL for being Russian. I think those types of arguments people make are silly and far overdoing it, but look, it's a war. Hockey is secondary to all that happens with a war. I'm not going to say it's impossible there's some problem that makes it such that Michkov never plays in the NHL or his NHL career is upended. But my attitude with this stuff has always been that if this even starts to come close to being in real focus and isn't just a deranged conspiracy theory, this world has much bigger problems than will Michkov be able to play in the NHL. So I think you just take these elements out of it and just focus on the hockey. The hockey world isn't qualified to forecast what might happen in these areas, and it's best to just focus on picking the best players. I think the teams that considered this will pay for their mistake.
So in summary, I think this dude could be one of those historic players in hockey history. Maybe that sounds silly, but if he becomes that generational goal-scorer I think he could be, he will take your team to another level and really define a generation or two of Flyers hockey. If you look at the previous generation, the generational players won Cups with Crosby winning 3 and Ovechkin 1. I tend to think it's going to eventually happen with McDavid. If you look at the best players to never win one, they tend to be below the generational threshold. So if that's what Michkov is, and I know that's a big leap from where he's currently at, that's what you guys might be looking at with him leading your team the next 20 years. As a Rangers fan, I hate that this is what I expect my team to have to contend with over the next 20 years. I think Michkov will be a big problem for us. I think Michkov may just be that dude that keeps raising the bar and setting goal-scoring records in the NHL, like he's done everywhere else. Of course, I can't guarantee that. Plenty can happen. I wouldn't be worried about his hockey ability being good enough to at least be a star, but it's true that until he proves it, you can't be sure that's what he'll become.
I think you guys are going to be in for an exciting team over the coming years. That's always said about rebuilding teams. People compliment how they have so many picks and prospects. All that. A lot of the time it doesn't turn out that way because rebuilds are not easy and a lot that you forecast doesn't turn out happening. It's better to be good than a team you hope will be good. Hope doesn't always actualize, but I say entirely due to Michkov that I think he's just that dude. He will lead you guys to a lot of success.
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