Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Fezzy126]

This thought process is part of the problem that is wrong with the org. This idea that the 'improvement comes from within'

There is a very real ceiling to this. And to be frank, I think we've seen it this year (not in terms of point totals but in terms of the ways we are going to be limited). And even if we make the playoffs next year, if we run it back with the same crew mostly....we are going to see it in a more pronounced way in a 7 game series. Unless we get a favorable matchup of a team that can't handle speed through the neutral zone it'll likely be a short series.

We have to start addressing our issues in a meaningful way...and that is going to mean making tough roster molding decisions to address our deficiencies. To be fair, i think your roster is probably realistic as to what the front office will do. Little risk, push any decisions back a year, and keep it a budget roster. But...it's a recipe for disaster. The teams around us will continue to improve. We aren't going to get career years out of 5 players next year. Yes, there is upside internally, but there is also room for regression. A lot of it.

It's time to start doing what Adams and Co should have done last year. Addressing obvious and glaring needs, using cap space and draft/prospect capital to do so.

Eh, not really.

That thought process resulted in massive growth for many of our young players.

For example, if we signed a couple of vet forwards then it would have resulted in less ice time for Quinn, Peterka, and Krebs. There were very loud cries for them to be sent to to Rochester earlier in the season while they were struggling. Who knows of they they develop into the middle 6 forwards that they became by the end of the year. Yet, they kept getting quality ice time and there was very real development through the struggles.

Alternatively, guys like Jokiharju and Bryson showed very real potential in brief spurts over the past few years. If we didn't throw them into the fire for an entire season with this staff, we might have pushed Joker into a lower role and still be wondering if he can handle a higher work load. From my perspective we have a much clearer picture about who these guys are.

The same applies to Comrie and UPL. You have to take the good with the bad in these cases.

My only issue will be if we depend on Joker as a top 4 piece again next year. As @Gabrielor has pointed out, we'd be one injury from disaster again next year. I think they need both a quality top 4 and top 6 dmen added.

 

[Fezzy126]

Agreed. Squandering the gift that was this year was bad enough. If they don't make a meaningful addition and are content to just let it ride this year, it's just asking for trouble. Development isn't linear. Some players that had career years are going to take a step back. We can't just bank on "exactly what we have now plus development" meaning we take a step forward.

Agreed that development is not linear. However, I think assuming we'll ultimately be worse in any way barring a catastrophic injury situation would embody the height of pessimism.

We should be expecting non-linear improvements out of Power and Quinn, and potentially Peterka as well. Those will far and away outpace any stagnation or minor regression from anyone else on the team. Even minor development steps from the others like Dahlin, Cozens, Samuelsson, and Krebs will have a pretty big impact on the teams overall performance.

 

[Husko]

Agreed that development is not linear. However, I think assuming we'll ultimately be worse in any way barring a catastrophic injury situation would embody the height of pessimism.

We should be expecting non-linear improvements out of Power and Quinn, and potentially Peterka as well. Those will far and away outpace any stagnation or minor regression from anyone else on the team. Even minor development steps from the others like Dahlin, Cozens, Samuelsson, and Krebs will have a pretty big impact on the teams overall performance.

I don't think bracing for Skinner and Thompson to score a combined 70 goals instead of 80 is necessarily the over 80 they did is necessarily the height of pessimism. Just an example of how we can't bank on the same production we got this year into next year and resting on development as the only way to improve. My wish list isn't long:

-1 goalie
-1 forward
-1 top 4 defenseman

 

[Chainshot]

My ideal guy would be Weegar, he just checks all the boxes for what they need in the top 4. That said I doubt Calgary trades him, and if they do I'm sure there would be considerable interest.

Realistically, with what Adams has done with UFA's so far I don't expect a big name. If he addresses RD, maybe Holl is someone he targets. He seems like a Lyubushkin type who is accustomed to playing over 20 minutes a game on a good team, blocks shots, PK's, hits and plays that shutdown kind of role.

Holl is Leaf Nation's version of Jokiharju - there are some good fancy stats and yet he's constantly on the wrong side of bad plays that cost the Leafs chances/goals against.

If they go shopping in UFA, that's the place to hunt up the forward I would like to see them add. And there is only one who ticks the boxes for PKing, particularly as a PK faceoff winner, defensively responsible, and with a dollop of offense to his game and that's the player JT Compher has become this year.

 

[Dingo44]

My ideal guy would be Weegar, he just checks all the boxes for what they need in the top 4. That said I doubt Calgary trades him, and if they do I'm sure there would be considerable interest.

Realistically, with what Adams has done with UFA's so far I don't expect a big name. If he addresses RD, maybe Holl is someone he targets. He seems like a Lyubushkin type who is accustomed to playing over 20 minutes a game on a good team, blocks shots, PK's, hits and plays that shutdown kind of role.

Adams didn't want to block prospects or the young guys, but we have no immediate RD prospects and though Joker is youngish, I think even they see they need an upgrade.

KA has exceeded expectations in every stage so far (cleaning out players who didn't want to be there, getting players who do, drafting, developing, building a front office, etc.) but hasn't really been at the pull the trigger on win now moves yet. Based on his track record, I expect he will exceed expectations once again. I think him and the coaching, front office, and analytics staff will go over every player and every prospect, see a need to fill, identify the correct players, and then be willing to make the moves to get them.

It's just going to be a LONG summer before a lot of this happens - not until the draft and July 1 (it's back to July 1, right?). Patience is key (but in very short supply around here).

 

[TehDoak]

A new GM and an owner who will spend money

As much as I hate on Adams, he doesn't set the budget.

I am very curious to see what happens this summer. I do think its important to remember that the Pegulas, Terry especially, was a fan first. I'm curious if the on ice improvements will lead to a wallet opening. It would be pretty trivial to make this a cap floor team again next year, if they wanted to. Move out Olofsson and replace them with some cheaper contracts would keep us at or below the floor again. I certainly don't think we will be near the cap....I'm hoping we'll see us closer to the midpoint (75 million-ish)

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I'm in an impulsive mood. Adding Ryan Graves and Parayko would really shore up the defensive side of the game. Any picks this year are on the table, along with Joker, VO.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm in an impulsive mood. Adding Ryan Graves and Parayko would really shore up the defensive side of the game. Any picks this year are on the table, along with Joker, VO.

I have a feeling that I am way more open to adding Parayko's contract than the majority of Sabres fans will be.

I think it would be interesting to build out a 1-n options list for the biggest needs the Sabres have this season.

When it comes to adding a top 4 D, I think Rasmus Andersson would be option #1, even if it is highly unlikely that he gets moved. The question then becomes where on the list does Parayko fall.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo1126]

Eh, not really.

That thought process resulted in massive growth for many of our young players.

For example, if we signed a couple of vet forwards then it would have resulted in less ice time for Quinn, Peterka, and Krebs. There were very loud cries for them to be sent to to Rochester earlier in the season while they were struggling. Who knows of they they develop into the middle 6 forwards that they became by the end of the year. Yet, they kept getting quality ice time and there was very real development through the struggles.

Alternatively, guys like Jokiharju and Bryson showed very real potential in brief spurts over the past few years. If we didn't throw them into the fire for an entire season with this staff, we might have pushed Joker into a lower role and still be wondering if he can handle a higher work load. From my perspective we have a much clearer picture about who these guys are.

The same applies to Comrie and UPL. You have to take the good with the bad in these cases.

My only issue will be if we depend on Joker as a top 4 piece again next year. As @Gabrielor has pointed out, we'd be one injury from disaster again next year. I think they need both a quality top 4 and top 6 dmen added.

These are exactly my thoughts as well. Management at this point should have no doubts about what they currently have and need from this roster. There's no question that Joker just can't be a Top-4 guy. There are no questions that they need to either severely reduce his playing time, or better still, replace him altogether. Now, if KA doesn't use this information to his advantage this off-season, that's an enormous problem.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Calgary is desparste for cap space
teams don’t have cap room

you don’t give Calgary anything nice to take him. You don’t trade a 1st or 2nd. You might give up a 7 th to eat his salary.

they had to pay a 1st to move Monahan who was at a low $6M. You think they get a 1st/2nd for backland…no.

thus is how you can get Anderson from thrm.

Andersson+ backland for Joker at 50%+ something else ( not a 1st/ top 10 prospect)

you are nuts. Calgary would never take a call from Adams again if he offered this.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

As much as I hate on Adams, he doesn't set the budget.

I am very curious to see what happens this summer. I do think its important to remember that the Pegulas, Terry especially, was a fan first. I'm curious if the on ice improvements will lead to a wallet opening. It would be pretty trivial to make this a cap floor team again next year, if they wanted to. Move out Olofsson and replace them with some cheaper contracts would keep us at or below the floor again. I certainly don't think we will be near the cap....I'm hoping we'll see us closer to the midpoint (75 million-ish)

I think the question with that will be where are they able to add contracts to get them to that spending level while keeping the players they view as core players. They'll need to add 10 -12 million in cap to hit 75 million, but they have a lot of players still on ELC's or good value contracts for at least another year.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think the question with that will be where are they able to add contracts to get them to that spending level while keeping the players they view as core players. They'll need to add 10 -12 million in cap to hit 75 million, but they have a lot of players still on ELC's or good value contracts for at least another year.

If you look at teams with cap struggles heading into next year (Calgary, TB, Vegas, Vancouver, etc.), there may be options available to Adams.

 

[Ace]

My ideal guy would be Weegar, he just checks all the boxes for what they need in the top 4. That said I doubt Calgary trades him, and if they do I'm sure there would be considerable interest.

Realistically, with what Adams has done with UFA's so far I don't expect a big name. If he addresses RD, maybe Holl is someone he targets. He seems like a Lyubushkin type who is accustomed to playing over 20 minutes a game on a good team, blocks shots, PK's, hits and plays that shutdown kind of role.

Well he’s terrible…so that fits Adams’s ability to identify D not already here or the consensus top pick in the draft perfectly. But he may want money…so we probably don’t have to worry

 

[HOOats]

Well he’s terrible…so that fits Adams’s ability to identify D not already here or the consensus top pick in the draft perfectly. But he may want money…so we probably don’t have to worry

Stillman looks like a (low-impact) steal already after being thrown into a new system and playoff race, without an off-season to acclimate. Boosh was average to above average in his role. Those are the only two D that fit the criteria you proposed.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Who makes a huge jump in points next year similar to Cozens? So many candidates. Quinn, Peterka, Power, Mittlestadt, Krebs?

I could argue all will considerably improve their point totals next year, which would be insane.

I’m going with the easy choice, Jack Quinn hits 30 goals next year.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

If you look at teams with cap struggles heading into next year (Calgary, TB, Vegas, Vancouver, etc.), there may be options available to Adams.

I meant on the roster itself. For example, among the forwards. If they do re-sign Okposo, even if they trade out Olofsson, and let Hino/Jost walk. There's probably not a significant amount of cap being added in the replacement of any of those 3. Unless they get a 2nd line caliber forward and have Peterka on the 3rd line or something like that which is completely reasonable.

There will still be money out/money in when replacing or upgrading players. Not sure they'd sign someone for 4 or 5 million to play in Josts role for example.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Who makes a huge jump in points next year similar to Cozens? So many candidates. Quinn, Peterka, Power, Mittlestadt, Krebs?

I could argue all will considerably improve their point totals next year, which would be insane.

I’m going with the easy choice, Jack Quinn hits 30 goals next year.

Yeah. Quinn's my choice as well. Mitts already had a really productive year this season, so a huge jump would put him over PPG, which would be awesome, but seems unlikely.

 

[The Blunder Years]

I'm in an impulsive mood. Adding Ryan Graves and Parayko would really shore up the defensive side of the game. Any picks this year are on the table, along with Joker, VO.

I’m definitely with you on wanting them both… but assuming Graves wants 3-5 years at 4-5 million you will be paying your d core as followed in the near future:

Dahlin: 9+ million
Power: 6-7+ million
Parayko: 6.5 million
Samuelsson: 4.5 million
Graves: 4+ million

Then whatever else you’re paying depth guys or Johnson on a bridge deal.

That’s just a ton of money to pay the defense, especially with Parayko’s and Graves term.

I think we can find a #4 and #5 dman for much less cap. You could probably get Mayfield and Soucy for under $7 million

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I have a feeling that I am way more open to adding Parayko's contract than the majority of Sabres fans will be.

I think it would be interesting to build out a 1-n options list for the biggest needs the Sabres have this season.

When it comes to adding a top 4 D, I think Rasmus Andersson would be option #1, even if it is highly unlikely that he gets moved. The question then becomes where on the list does Parayko fall.

I go back and forth because of that contract, but seeing the impact Samuelsson has on their record, not having another guy like him is asking for trouble.

 

[TehDoak]

A bit of a rough draft here:

UFA:

Sign Severson to a 4 year, 6.5M per deal
Sign Jesper Fast to a 3 year, 2.5M per deal


Trades:

Olofsson to Chicago for a 2024 3rd
Joker to San Jose for Sturm
UPL and Philly's 2023 2nd, our 2024 2nd for Carter Hart

Goals Achieved:

Upgraded Goaltending
Improved Defense
Improved PK
No top prospects touched.
Plenty of cap space/assets available to add to bottom pair defense if needed.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I’m definitely with you on wanting them both… but assuming Graves wants 3-5 years at 4-5 million you will be paying your d core as followed in the near future:

Dahlin: 9+ million
Power: 6-7+ million
Parayko: 6.5 million
Samuelsson: 4.5 million
Graves: 4+ million

Then whatever else you’re paying depth guys or Johnson on a bridge deal.

That’s just a ton of money to pay the defense, especially with Parayko’s and Graves term.

I think we can find a #4 and #5 dman for much less cap.

Losing KO's 6, Jost and Girgs 4.5 combined, Joker's 2.5, and VO's 4.75 helps. They need to replace 4th liners but that's about it. The ability to roll that team defense gives them, on paper, maybe the best D in the league. Maybe Jost re-signs for 1.25 to play on the 4th line. I dunno. But moving forward, I'd rather they cheap out on the 4th line than the defense.

 

[MOGlLNY]

A bit of a rough draft here:

UFA:

Sign Severson to a 4 year, 6.5M per deal
Sign Jesper Fast to a 3 year, 2.5M per deal


Trades:

Olofsson to Chicago for a 2024 3rd
Joker to San Jose for Sturm
UPL and Philly's 2023 2nd, our 2024 2nd for Carter Hart

Goals Achieved:

Upgraded Goaltending
Improved Defense
Improved PK
No top prospects touched.
Plenty of cap space/assets available to add to bottom pair defense if needed.

View attachment 686797

While I like the layout of this plan I don't think Philly would accept that trade and I don't know if I'm willing to pay Severson close to 7 million. I'd also like to get another defenseman to push Stillman out to the 7th spot.

 

[The Blunder Years]

Losing KO's 6, Jost and Girgs 4.5 combined, Joker's 2.5, and VO's 4.75 helps. They need to replace 4th liners but that's about it. The ability to roll that team defense gives them, on paper, maybe the best D in the league. Maybe Jost re-signs for 1.25 to play on the 4th line. I dunno. But moving forward, I'd rather they cheap out on the 4th line than the defense.

Not arguing next years cap implications but Parayko has like what 7 years left on his deal? Graves will probably want 4-5 years. What happens when you need to pay Quinn, Peterka, Levi, Tuch, Power, Dahlin, Krebs, and other prospects coming off their ELC before those deals are up?

Edit: not to mention having some cap flexibility when we’re supposed to be good

 

[TehDoak]

While I like the layout of this plan I don't think Philly would accept that trade and I don't know if I'm willing to pay Severson close to 7 million. I'd also like to get another defenseman to push Stillman out to the 7th spot.

The point of the severson deal is to avoid term. It'd be better for us to pay 4 years at a higher AAV than a 6 year at a lower AAV. The long term plan is to give Power a 3 year bridge deal similar to McAvoy. So, he'd be up for his big long term deal, Severson's contract would fall off. It'd also give us 4 years to draft/develop a d-man to replace Severson and slide in on their ELC.

 

[MOGlLNY]

The point of the severson deal is to avoid term. It'd be better for us to pay 4 years at a higher AAV than a 6 year at a lower AAV. The long term plan is to give Power a 3 year bridge deal similar to McAvoy. So, he'd be up for his big long term deal, Severson's contract would fall off. It'd also give us 4 years to draft/develop a d-man to replace Severson and slide in on their ELC.

I'd be up for doing that with Dumba as well, as we know Dumba is more than capable of being a solid partner for a great to good defenseman (Spurgeon).