Roster Talk: Nearing the 20 game mark

[Ziggy Stardust]

Man, totally off topic but the 2009 draft was pretty killer for the Kings.

Six out of their 10 picks are currently on an NHL roster (two of whom are on the Kings, Clifford and Nolan). If you include guys who have appeared in an NHL game, Kozun makes it seven, and Nic Dowd has a very good shot at being a future bottom six center in the NHL.

No standout talents, but they certainly know how to find character guys.

 

[tsanuri]

There's a shocker.

And Perry and Getz's are not current, which is the bargaining chip the agent is using. From what Friedman reported about 10 days ago, or so, the Kings are 'reportedly' at 9 and the Kopitar camp at 10.5 (in the neighborhood of) neither side is budging.
I think both sides are waiting it out, each thinking they have the advantage. DL assumes Kopi wants to be here and will eventually give in, Kopi's camp, are banking on the Kings not wanting to lose him to Free Agency and teams that would pony up. He's a valued commodity that a team would move a contract out to fit in.
Interesting stalemate.

And the more goals TT puts up, the more his agents position will go up for his next deal, which could be in the 7 M per range, based on players with similiar numbers, which is the barometer they use.

And I don't see those numbers as that far apart really. And nobody can blame either side for trying to get those numbers. But you've got to figure a comprise will be made. It's just how long it takes to get there.

 

[deeshamrock]

And I don't see those numbers as that far apart really. And nobody can blame either side for trying to get those numbers. But you've got to figure a comprise will be made. It's just how long it takes to get there.

THis is it right? The part of the game they both play. And it's ego ...wanting to be the side that 'wins'.
And if Kopi won't ,move below 10 (which is what a couple of the sportsnetca's guys heard) than DL chops 3 yrs off and gives him a 5 yr deal. Somehow you would think they both want a middle ground.
I thought it would be done by now.

 

[tsanuri]

THis is it right? The part of the game they both play. And it's ego ...wanting to be the side that 'wins'.
And if Kopi won't ,move below 10 (which is what a couple of the sportsnetca's guys heard) than DL chops 3 yrs off and gives him a 5 yr deal. Somehow you would think they both want a middle ground.
I thought it would be done by now.

You've got to think he's getting pressure from the PA to not go much if any lower than 10M. He is a premier 2 way center. And him going lower actually lowers the salary for other members. But I'm hopeful they can get it done in the 9.5-9.75M mark. Still a lot of money and going to make things hard on the team if the cap doesn't start to go up.
But say he was using the 9M as the starting point hoping to get him a 9.5M. Do we really let him walk over .5M a year? That not even enough to cover a single player at league min.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Sorry guys I don't see Lombardi and Soloman giving out a 9 million dollar deal or more.

They have tried hard to keep even the best players at 5-6 million over longer term. Doughty makes 7 but I think most people can agree besides Quick he is the most valuable King.

Kings won't become the Blackhawks.

 

[YP44]

There's a shocker.

And Perry and Getz's are not current, which is the bargaining chip the agent is using. From what Friedman reported about 10 days ago, or so, the Kings are 'reportedly' at 9 and the Kopitar camp at 10.5 (in the neighborhood of) neither side is budging.
I think both sides are waiting it out, each thinking they have the advantage. DL assumes Kopi wants to be here and will eventually give in, Kopi's camp, are banking on the Kings not wanting to lose him to Free Agency and teams that would pony up. He's a valued commodity that a team would move a contract out to fit in.
Interesting stalemate.

And the more goals TT puts up, the more his agents position will go up for his next deal, which could be in the 7 M per range, based on players with similiar numbers, which is the barometer they use.

the TT deal could be what really requires some hard moves to be made to clear cap.

 

[tsanuri]

Sorry guys I don't see Lombardi and Soloman giving out a 9 million dollar deal or more.

They have tried hard to keep even the best players at 5-6 million over longer term. Doughty makes 7 but I think most people can agree besides Quick he is the most valuable King.

Kings won't become the Blackhawks.

Doughty gave up 3 RFA years but comparing an UFA contract to a UFA contract just doesn't work. Not to mention a contract that is in it's 5th year.
And you think this is bad if Doughty will be looking at 12M+ by the time his contract comes up. And that might even be without the cap going up much. There are 29 other teams that would jump at him even more than they would Kopitar.
And you won't be able to keep your best players at 5-6M or even 7M under the CBA. It's already been reported many times they have offered 9M and that sounds like the starting place. So to say they won't offer that or more doesn't seem to be close to the truth.

 

[Fishhead]

the TT deal could be what really requires some hard moves to be made to clear cap.

Agreed. The only things the Kings have in their pocket is that he's restricted and they can offer 8 years. That gives them an opportunity to sign him long term through his reproductive UFA years.

It could easily end up like Carter where he's at a great cap# for what he brings. Also, if the Kings decide to do a total rebuild, think of the value of that contract.

 

[YP44]

Agreed. The only things the Kings have in their pocket is that he's restricted and they can offer 8 years. That gives them an opportunity to sign him long term through his reproductive UFA years.

It could easily end up like Carter where he's at a great cap# for what he brings. Also, if the Kings decide to do a total rebuild, think of the value of that contract.

Looking at deals like the tersenko (not that TT is at that level) I think we are screwed

 

[KINGS17]

You've got to think he's getting pressure from the PA to not go much if any lower than 10M. He is a premier 2 way center. And him going lower actually lowers the salary for other members. But I'm hopeful they can get it done in the 9.5-9.75M mark. Still a lot of money and going to make things hard on the team if the cap doesn't start to go up.
But say he was using the 9M as the starting point hoping to get him a 9.5M. Do we really let him walk over .5M a year? That not even enough to cover a single player at league min.

Kopitar WAS a premiere two-way center. One of his "ways" (offensive zone) is broken. If he was a player in the old slot hockey game he would be the guy that skates around the boards in the offensive zone.

The Kings will regret it if they give Kopitar $9M+ AAV, especially if it's for 8 years. With the way Kopitar is going this season, the longer Dean waits the more leverage he has in the negotiation.

Dean can't wait too long though. I don't want to see Kopitar traded as a rental, and I don't want Dean to be influenced by a potential Pacific Division championship. This team, if Kopitar doesn't do more offensively, is not Stanley Cup championship material.

 

[Ron*]

So can goals. And wins. Or anything you want if that's all your using without understanding how it's working.

It's very useful as it has predictive power than most other stats due to large sample size. So we can more easily see which teams and players are consistently playing well or bad on smaller sample sizes* than stats like shots on goals +/- or goals +/-. Remember all it is is shot attempts +/-. You can further refine it for 5v5 play and when the score is close to make an even more indicative stat.

*When I say smaller sample sizes I do not mean on a game by game basis, takes much more than that to have value as a predicative stat.

Normal +/- is dumb due to it's stupid rules included. It really needs to be abolished or modified at very least so it's just 5v5 with empty netters removed. Then it would be at least not random like it is now, but still not very indicative of much. There's simply not even goals scored even over a full season to eliminate the biases on a player by player level of goalie save percentage (which player does not control) and on ice shooting % (which player has very little control and can be massively different over short stretches).

42% of all statistics are lies.

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

Something's gotta give, you can't just pay Kopi 10+, Doughty 11-12, Toffoli 7+, etc

 

[Fishhead]

Looking at deals like the tersenko (not that TT is at that level) I think we are screwed

There's going to be a lot of comparables around that time. He's in the same ballpark as guys like Palat, Johansen, Johnson, and Huberdeau, who will also be RFA that year.

We will have a better idea once we see what happens with Johansson in Washington, or guys like Kreider and Hoffman (if he keeps it up).

 

[tsanuri]

Something's gotta give, you can't just pay Kopi 10+, Doughty 11-12, Toffoli 7+, etc

Doughty we still have a few years and Toffoli wouldn't start til the year after next. And in that time the cap should be rising. And if the Loonie actually starts to recover the cap will go nuts.

 

[KINGS17]

Doughty we still have a few years and Toffoli wouldn't start til the year after next. And in that time the cap should be rising. And if the Loonie actually starts to recover the cap will go nuts.

What makes you think this will happen? The U.S. fracking industry is in high gear. It is more expensive to extract oil (dirtier oil) from the Canadian tar sands.

Canada's economy is driven by the price of oil. Oil fell to around $40 a barrel recently and isn't getting back to $100 anytime soon. Also, the U.S. Fed is going to raise interest rates soon. That will only make the $USD stronger. The cap is not going to increase by a significant amount for quite some time.

The idea that pressure on Kopitar from the PA will affect a GM like Lombardi isn't well founded. Every GM in the NHL knows that the Toews contract is overblown as a comp by the agents. The Toews contract is an outlier, not the norm, written by a GM that thought the cap would be $80M next season. Well, he was wrong.

Start with what Toews is really worth with today's cap, and knock $1M - $1.5M off the AAV for Kopitar and we are getting close to his true value, and no not for eight years. Kopitar already got his sweetheart deal on his second contract. No need to give him a retirement contract.

If he won't take reasonable offer at his true value, trade him.

 

[Prince]

Avs shopping Duchene, and teams sniffing around Montreal's Jarred Tinordi.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/40062/rumblings-is-matt-duchene-being-shopped-by-the-avs

Let me get this straight. A western conferance player on a struggling team makes an road trip through Toronto and Montreal and there are rumors/stories of him being traded .......shocking.

 

[Ron*]

Let me get this straight. A western conferance player on a struggling team makes an road trip through Toronto and Montreal and there are rumors/stories of him being traded .......shocking.

Keeps the Toronto Sun in circulation, even in the 21st Century. What else is there for the good people of Toronto to do, other than to spin ridiculous rumors all season long, anything to do than to keep the spotlight from that garbage team of theirs?

 

[Jason Lewis]

I read that article as well, it was interesting to see those numbers.

One thing about that pairing that perhaps can shed some light on their numbers is the forwards they play with. Doughty's pairing is almost always out there when the 4th line is on the ice. I noticed it a few games ago and you can see it really easily if you browse shift charts. Last night there were only a few shifts that the top pair and 4th weren't together.

The 4th line is by far the worst on the team with SAT%, so it's definitely affecting their possession numbers.

And take Forbort's numbers with a huge grain because he's had creampuff matchups most of the time. Remember, Martinez used to have gaudy numbers for the same reason. If he continues to settle in though, I think that he will be able to put up some pretty solid numbers against higher quality comp. He's been pretty impressive so far, better than I expected for sure.

Except it's not.

Doughty has played 300 even strength minutes. Around 50 of them have been with the 4th line. That's around 17-18% of his total ice time.

For comparison:

Muzzin: 264 ES minutes, around 45-50 with 4th line. Around 20% of his total ice time.
Ehrhoff: 183 ES minutes, around 40 minutes with the 4th line. Around 21%
Martinez: 253 ES minues, around 40-50 with 4th line. Around 19%
McNabb: 267 ES minutes, around 40-45 with 4th line. Around 16%

By percentage of total minutes, Doughty and McNabb play an amount similar to that of his teammates, and little less actually. Sutter does a good job keeping it balanced.

Also, when Doughty is out with the 4th line his corsi is at 49.4%. Hardly affecting his numbers by any considerable amount. That's respectable considering it's a 4th line of not very good players and he is nearly at 50% possession.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1001&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

 

[Fishhead]

Except it's not.

Doughty has played 300 even strength minutes. Around 50 of them have been with the 4th line. That's around 17-18% of his total ice time.

For comparison:

Muzzin: 264 ES minutes, around 45-50 with 4th line. Around 20% of his total ice time.
Ehrhoff: 183 ES minutes, around 40 minutes with the 4th line. Around 21%
Martinez: 253 ES minues, around 40-50 with 4th line. Around 19%
McNabb: 267 ES minutes, around 40-45 with 4th line. Around 16%

By percentage of total minutes, Doughty and McNabb play an amount similar to that of his teammates, and little less actually. Sutter does a good job keeping it balanced.

Also, when Doughty is out with the 4th line his corsi is at 49.4%. Hardly affecting his numbers by any considerable amount. That's respectable considering it's a 4th line of not very good players and he is nearly at 50% possession.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1001&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

I was more looking at it like this:

Clifford has 138 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 41.3% of his time is with DD.
Nolan has 115 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 43.4% of his time is with DD.
Andreoff has 112 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 41.1% of his time is with DD.

All 3 of them play substantially more minutes with Doughty than other other player, sans goalies and linemates.

There's no doubt that Drew is preferred on the ice with the 4th line, and for whatever reason it's not working too well. His Corsi with the Kopitar line is over 60%, and is nearing 60% with the 3rd line (Trevor bromance??). He's also putting up sub-50 corsi with the 2nd line.

Playing with the 4th line is definitely affecting his numbers, but so is playing with the 2nd. Trying to figure out what those two lines have in common, but I got nothin'. I'm also perplexed at why Sutter keeps throwing Drew out there with the 4th line when they obviously do better with other pairings.

 

[Kings4thecup]

There's a shocker.

And Perry and Getz's are not current, which is the bargaining chip the agent is using. From what Friedman reported about 10 days ago, or so, the Kings are 'reportedly' at 9 and the Kopitar camp at 10.5 (in the neighborhood of) neither side is budging.
I think both sides are waiting it out, each thinking they have the advantage. DL assumes Kopi wants to be here and will eventually give in, Kopi's camp, are banking on the Kings not wanting to lose him to Free Agency and teams that would pony up. He's a valued commodity that a team would move a contract out to fit in.
Interesting stalemate.

And the more goals TT puts up, the more his agents position will go up for his next deal, which could be in the 7 M per range, based on players with similiar numbers, which is the barometer they use.

Not doubting Friedman, this is probably accurate, but on NHL Radio last week the Powerplay had Nick Nickson on. According to what he heard, the sides were "a couple hundred thousand apart." and that he thought it would get done soon. I hope he's right, and for the group best benefit, it's close to 9m.

 

[tsanuri]

I was more looking at it like this:

Clifford has 138 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 41.3% of his time is with DD.
Nolan has 115 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 43.4% of his time is with DD.
Andreoff has 112 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 41.1% of his time is with DD.

All 3 of them play substantially more minutes with Doughty than other other player, sans goalies and linemates.

There's no doubt that Drew is preferred on the ice with the 4th line, and for whatever reason it's not working too well. His Corsi with the Kopitar line is over 60%, and is nearing 60% with the 3rd line (Trevor bromance??). He's also putting up sub-50 corsi with the 2nd line.

Playing with the 4th line is definitely affecting his numbers, but so is playing with the 2nd. Trying to figure out what those two lines have in common, but I got nothin'. I'm also perplexed at why Sutter keeps throwing Drew out there with the 4th line when they obviously do better with other pairings.

Have you thought having Doughty on the ice with the 4th line is to have the strongest D for them. Which also happens to be one of our best scoring D as well and this year the best scoring D.
I'd argue he's a bigger scoring threat than any of the players on the 4th line.

 

[tsanuri]

Not doubting Friedman, this is probably accurate, but on NHL Radio last week the Powerplay had Nick Nickson on. According to what he heard, the sides were "a couple hundred thousand apart." and that he thought it would get done soon. I hope he's right, and for the group best benefit, it's close to 9m.

If this is the case the deal will be done. You don't let someone like Kopi walk over a couple hundred thousand.
Friedman is one the best but he isn't in LA. And that can matter exactly whom you are hearing from.

 

[Fishhead]

Have you thought having Doughty on the ice with the 4th line is to have the strongest D for them. Which also happens to be one of our best scoring D as well and this year the best scoring D.
I'd argue he's a bigger scoring threat than any of the players on the 4th line.

That totally makes sense, and that's what I thought right away. But the thing is, the Corsi for that line goes up a good amount when they are not with Drew. It's probably just small sample size, because last year we saw the opposite.

 

[tsanuri]

That totally makes sense, and that's what I thought right away. But the thing is, the Corsi for that line goes up a good amount when they are not with Drew. It's probably just small sample size, because last year we saw the opposite.

I think the problem is that line isn't shooting. They only have 30 shots between them. They have been puck possession machines at times in the offensive zone on the cycle. But they aren't getting looks at the net at all. And with that few amount of shots it doesn't take much from the other team on the rush after they have been in the zone to throw off corsi.

 

[Jason Lewis]

I was more looking at it like this:

Clifford has 138 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 41.3% of his time is with DD.
Nolan has 115 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 43.4% of his time is with DD.
Andreoff has 112 minutes of 5v5 TOI. 41.1% of his time is with DD.

All 3 of them play substantially more minutes with Doughty than other other player, sans goalies and linemates.

There's no doubt that Drew is preferred on the ice with the 4th line, and for whatever reason it's not working too well. His Corsi with the Kopitar line is over 60%, and is nearing 60% with the 3rd line (Trevor bromance??). He's also putting up sub-50 corsi with the 2nd line.

Playing with the 4th line is definitely affecting his numbers, but so is playing with the 2nd. Trying to figure out what those two lines have in common, but I got nothin'. I'm also perplexed at why Sutter keeps throwing Drew out there with the 4th line when they obviously do better with other pairings.

Okay, I understand you now. I was reading into it more from a defenseman to defenseman standpoint. Like who comparatively plays more time with the 4th line in reference to their TOTAL ice time. In that case it's even. I get what you mean now. Totally read it a different way the first time!