Roster Talk: Nearing the 20 game mark
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For Kopitar, he's going to need to have a stretch where the Kings think he will be worth an X amount. As the season goes on, and with this kind of productivity, what the Kings are willing to offer him isn't going to go up, and it might be going down. I wouldn't sign him tomorrow, even if the number seemed OK. It's just far too much cap space for low production.
tsanuri
Registered User
It really makes it the same amount of money since it was pointed out 7 vs 8 years. So if Kopi were to get [email protected] at free agency that's 73.5M or [email protected] that's 74M.
SettlementRichie10
Registered User
- May 6, 2012
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That's the big deterrent here. And honestly, I don't know how many times would (or even can) saddle themselves with a 10+ cap hit for the next seven years. Maybe Toronto would do it. Idk.
Buddy The Elf
Kings!
I don't know if the contract thing is impacting Kopitar's play but it isn't like he is absent out there. We could certainly use more from him. On the positive side, at least he has 5 goals already. That's a third of last year's total and we're not at the quarter pole yet.
I saw an article from mid-September a few days ago where there was a quote from Kopitar where he said he'd like to get a deal done before the season but he knows Dean always has a plan and he wasn't worried if it wasn't done by then. That's straight from the horses mouth. Now we're month into the season and I'm sure that could've changed but i think the article from Dreger(?) about the Kopitar camp getting restless was conjecture or possibly posturing through the media. Gaborik also bought a home across the street from Kopitar and they have a bromance going so I don't think Kopitar is interested in leaving. He may if he feels he is getting severely lowballed by the organization but I don't think he'll get pissed and move on if they don't bend over and give him whatever he wants.
I'm thinking they are far apart on AAV but I think DL would be prudent to hold out as long as he can in hopes they come down on that number which they probably will. If they are asking for Kane/Toews numbers, it isn't like signing a deal needs to happen immediately. I highly doubt their demands are going to go up. If Kopitar's numbers slide, the team slides etc., DL isn't locked into anything and has leverage/options.
I saw an article from mid-September a few days ago where there was a quote from Kopitar where he said he'd like to get a deal done before the season but he knows Dean always has a plan and he wasn't worried if it wasn't done by then. That's straight from the horses mouth. Now we're month into the season and I'm sure that could've changed but i think the article from Dreger(?) about the Kopitar camp getting restless was conjecture or possibly posturing through the media. Gaborik also bought a home across the street from Kopitar and they have a bromance going so I don't think Kopitar is interested in leaving. He may if he feels he is getting severely lowballed by the organization but I don't think he'll get pissed and move on if they don't bend over and give him whatever he wants.
I'm thinking they are far apart on AAV but I think DL would be prudent to hold out as long as he can in hopes they come down on that number which they probably will. If they are asking for Kane/Toews numbers, it isn't like signing a deal needs to happen immediately. I highly doubt their demands are going to go up. If Kopitar's numbers slide, the team slides etc., DL isn't locked into anything and has leverage/options.
tsanuri
Registered User
He's on a 27 goal pace while many have said he isn't playing well. And he won't start getting assists until his line mates can actually finish or out D starts scoring more.
kingsfan28
Its A Kingspiracy !
Or when Kopitar changes his MO entering the zone looking to make a pass instead of circling around the net , then passing it back to one of the points.
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scramble91
Registered User
- Jul 6, 2010
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This is where I think the wingers are equally important. Look at where brown goes on the zone entries....the spacing seems so out of whack. Look at lucic, he plays the boards and goes to the net when he doesn't have the puck. Brown roams everywhere and goes to the net but not in a scoring position (turned around, or on the ice). Mix that with gaborik floating around.....it's crazy. Pearson might be a good fit because he keeps Good spacing and can actually make a pass (underrated vision Imo).
I have accepted that Kopi will always try and make the safe play and won't try passes through multiple sticks or people. I've watched numerous replays of zone entries, and honestly most of the time the options are very limited.
The reason he does this so often is because when he enters the zone with speed the other teams immediately collapse all 5 guys right to the crease leaving the points wide open. This is out of respect for what they know Kopitar can do to them. Kopitar is not one to make hope plays, he makes the safe play, that's why he is so great. IMO he really hasn't been nearly as bad as people seem to think.
Jason Squirties
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- Apr 15, 2014
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Interesting article on hockeybuzz about Corsi etc on the DD BM pairing. I guess the numbers say the same thing as the eye test. I'm not a Corsi believer because it doesn't measure brain farts, which this pairing seems to have plenty of. Not surpring, all the lists show Forbort at the top or near. Teams seem to have trouble generating shots when he is out there. He has a knack for getting the play going the other way. Last year in Manchester it seemed like teams were never going to score against him and Gravel. There's only been one goal against him in camp and reg, 9 or 10 games now. Even strength or PK. That was the Toews goal. We need to see more of him, and I think we will. DS is not going to rush in the new kid, but he's been promising so far. His AHL game is translating to the NHL, so far!! IMO
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
Avs shopping Duchene, and teams sniffing around Montreal's Jarred Tinordi.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/40062/rumblings-is-matt-duchene-being-shopped-by-the-avs
http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/40062/rumblings-is-matt-duchene-being-shopped-by-the-avs
I read that article as well, it was interesting to see those numbers.
One thing about that pairing that perhaps can shed some light on their numbers is the forwards they play with. Doughty's pairing is almost always out there when the 4th line is on the ice. I noticed it a few games ago and you can see it really easily if you browse shift charts. Last night there were only a few shifts that the top pair and 4th weren't together.
The 4th line is by far the worst on the team with SAT%, so it's definitely affecting their possession numbers.
And take Forbort's numbers with a huge grain because he's had creampuff matchups most of the time. Remember, Martinez used to have gaudy numbers for the same reason. If he continues to settle in though, I think that he will be able to put up some pretty solid numbers against higher quality comp. He's been pretty impressive so far, better than I expected for sure.
People talk about Forbort's long reach, that is undoubtedly true, but watch his feet -- he can really move them. He'll need time to adjust to NHL speed and craftiness and get stronger but I like what I'm seeing.
kovacro
Uvijek Vjerni
When watching him in Hamilton (AHL), for the most part I found Tinordi to be slow reacting to plays in his own zone, not the greatest foot speed either. I would take a pass.
Doesn't help he's wasting away on Montreal's roster this year and has not got into any games. Can't send him down because he would get claimed.
Cannot be good for his development.
not really because after the 7 year deal lets say he signs with a cup contender for 1 year @ even $2M. than you are looking at 75.5 vs 74
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
The only time people say this is when folks are using it as a be-all stat. Use it with context and it will be fine. Otherwise, it's just like +/-.
Fishhead just provided context around the stat and now we're at a better understanding. I have a hard time seeing why that's bad.
Holden Caulfield
CANADA. True North Strong and FREE
So can goals. And wins. Or anything you want if that's all your using without understanding how it's working.
It's very useful as it has predictive power than most other stats due to large sample size. So we can more easily see which teams and players are consistently playing well or bad on smaller sample sizes* than stats like shots on goals +/- or goals +/-. Remember all it is is shot attempts +/-. You can further refine it for 5v5 play and when the score is close to make an even more indicative stat.
*When I say smaller sample sizes I do not mean on a game by game basis, takes much more than that to have value as a predicative stat.
Normal +/- is dumb due to it's stupid rules included. It really needs to be abolished or modified at very least so it's just 5v5 with empty netters removed. Then it would be at least not random like it is now, but still not very indicative of much. There's simply not even goals scored even over a full season to eliminate the biases on a player by player level of goalie save percentage (which player does not control) and on ice shooting % (which player has very little control and can be massively different over short stretches).
Herby
How could Blake have known?
Damn you,
You better not jinx him like the last guy you said that about!
All kidding aside, I actually agrees it's you about Carter. Carter and Richards are like the two drinking buddies in college who both just turned 30. One of them just got a nice promotion at work, got married and is about to start the next chapter of his life, the other one is still trying to get into frat parties and sneaks into the student section at football games.
Reaper45
Registered User
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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deeshamrock
Registered User
There's a shocker.
And Perry and Getz's are not current, which is the bargaining chip the agent is using. From what Friedman reported about 10 days ago, or so, the Kings are 'reportedly' at 9 and the Kopitar camp at 10.5 (in the neighborhood of) neither side is budging.
I think both sides are waiting it out, each thinking they have the advantage. DL assumes Kopi wants to be here and will eventually give in, Kopi's camp, are banking on the Kings not wanting to lose him to Free Agency and teams that would pony up. He's a valued commodity that a team would move a contract out to fit in.
Interesting stalemate.
And the more goals TT puts up, the more his agents position will go up for his next deal, which could be in the 7 M per range, based on players with similiar numbers, which is the barometer they use.
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