Roster Talk: Nearing the 20 game mark

[Trolfoli]

I have been wondering for some time now if Brown would be good for Edmonton. I know they are in the same division, but I feel like Edmonton has plenty of skill, they just need some leadership. Dustin Brown would provide that for them. If the Kings retain half of DB's salary, I wonder if Edmonton would be interested.

I really think DB has value, but nobody is going to touch him for that price tag. If the Kings are going to retain certain players in the future (Toffoli, Pearson), while remaining as competitive as possible, they are going to have to find a way to get rid of at least some of dustin browns salary hit.

I really just want to see if McDavid can make Brown score. Kinda a water into wine type of deal...

 

[mrkolice]

two interesting charts for lak this season: dcorsi, for forwards only. source: http://www.nullhypothesishockey.com/great-expectations-dcorsi/

forwards standing out:
- positives: brown, shore
- negatives: nolan, andreoff.

more important: overall there's a big gap in corsi for (3 players underperforming) vs corsi against (6 players underperforming), which is strange as lak leads the nhl in CF% with 56.6. any ideas how to interpret this discrepancy?

 

[Johnny Utah]

Brown for mark fayne? Brown for Andrew ferrence and a pick?

 

[KingsFan7824]

I have been wondering for some time now if Brown would be good for Edmonton. I know they are in the same division, but I feel like Edmonton has plenty of skill, they just need some leadership. Dustin Brown would provide that for them. If the Kings retain half of DB's salary, I wonder if Edmonton would be interested.

I really think DB has value, but nobody is going to touch him for that price tag. If the Kings are going to retain certain players in the future (Toffoli, Pearson), while remaining as competitive as possible, they are going to have to find a way to get rid of at least some of dustin browns salary hit.

What does half of Brown's salary really do for them? What else is Lombardi giving up in addition to that? What does he have to take back?

If the Kings had a bunch of cap space, or were rebuilding, then retaining half of Brown's contract for many years makes no difference. There's no easy way out of that contract though. Nobody is going to help the Kings just because they want to keep Toffoli, Pearson, and win more Cups.

 

[YP44]

Brown for mark fayne? Brown for Andrew ferrence and a pick?

I think I would prefer Ference as his deal expires when TT needs a new contract.
Doubt Edmonton does it

 

[YP44]

I have been wondering for some time now if Brown would be good for Edmonton. I know they are in the same division, but I feel like Edmonton has plenty of skill, they just need some leadership. Dustin Brown would provide that for them. If the Kings retain half of DB's salary, I wonder if Edmonton would be interested.

I really think DB has value, but nobody is going to touch him for that price tag. If the Kings are going to retain certain players in the future (Toffoli, Pearson), while remaining as competitive as possible, they are going to have to find a way to get rid of at least some of dustin browns salary hit.

retaining almost $3m makes it not worth it from LA IMO.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

What does half of Brown's salary really do for them? What else is Lombardi giving up in addition to that? What does he have to take back?

If the Kings had a bunch of cap space, or were rebuilding, then retaining half of Brown's contract for many years makes no difference. There's no easy way out of that contract though. Nobody is going to help the Kings just because they want to keep Toffoli, Pearson, and win more Cups.

I think another lock out isn't really a far fetched idea. With another lock out will give out more buyouts. This going to be the easy way out of his contract.

 

[YP44]

I would rather have the kings lose TT due to not having enough cap space than go through another lockout.
Having a ****** NHL team to cheer for beats having no NHL

 

[KopitarFAN]

I don't think anyone wants it to happen, but it's reality, their are already so many flaws found in the CBA that the owners are bound to opt-out.

I think another lock out isn't really a far fetched idea. With another lock out will give out more buyouts. This going to be the easy way out of his contract.

I've said the same thing about the seemingly inevitable Kopitar deal. For Brown, by the time the work stoppage would hit, his deal would only have 2 years left.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

two interesting charts for lak this season: dcorsi, for forwards only. source: http://www.nullhypothesishockey.com/great-expectations-dcorsi/

forwards standing out:
- positives: brown, shore
- negatives: nolan, andreoff.

more important: overall there's a big gap in corsi for (3 players underperforming) vs corsi against (6 players underperforming), which is strange as lak leads the nhl in CF% with 56.6. any ideas how to interpret this discrepancy?

Well, a few guys that are underperforming are underperforming HEAVILY--notably the fourth line. Keep in mind that relative stats aren't perfect, they're trying to account for a lot of factors so it may not necessarily average to the team CF%. And Carter/Lucic appearing there tells me that the relative stat 'expects' them to have less shots against since they generate so many for and are deployed more offensively--doesn't mean theyr'e doing poorly as their percentage is still much higher, just that defensively, others are doing better.

 

[KINGS17]

I would rather have the kings lose TT due to not having enough cap space than go through another lockout.
Having a ****** NHL team to cheer for beats having no NHL

I wouldn't. I would rather miss an entire season and see the Kings keep Toffoli and the GMs have the ability to clean out bad contracts with at a minimum contract terms limited to six years.

I would also hope the owners would eliminate guaranteed contracts in the next CBA. It would make the product better for the fans.

 

[YP44]

I wouldn't. I would rather miss an entire season and see the Kings keep Toffoli and the GMs have the ability to clean out bad contracts with at a minimum contract terms limited to six years.

I would also hope the owners would eliminate guaranteed contracts in the next CBA. It would make the product better for the fans.

This will never happen. Looking at the NFL their contracts are going the other way with more and more money guaranteed

 

[Basilisk]

two interesting charts for lak this season: dcorsi, for forwards only. source: http://www.nullhypothesishockey.com/great-expectations-dcorsi/

forwards standing out:
- positives: brown, shore
- negatives: nolan, andreoff.

more important: overall there's a big gap in corsi for (3 players underperforming) vs corsi against (6 players underperforming), which is strange as lak leads the nhl in CF% with 56.6. any ideas how to interpret this discrepancy?

Nice work!!! Time to sit Andreoff & give Weal a chance......

 

[The Tikkanen]

This will never happen. Looking at the NFL their contracts are going the other way with more and more money guaranteed

I'd focus on the max length, in this day and age with PED testing (although disturbingly limited in the NHL) 3 years would be a good max number. Or maybe have a set max number based on age. So if a player is 34 there is a set max, 28 a longer max, so on and so forth.

 

[KINGS17]

I'd focus on the max length, in this day and age with PED testing (although disturbingly limited in the NHL) 3 years would be a good max number. Or maybe have a set max number based on age. So if a player is 34 there is a set max, 28 a longer max, so on and so forth.

Yeah, I am starting to side with this camp more, but I still think an organization should be able to cut a player with a long term deal that isn't doing the work it takes to perform at a high level.

I don't think the NHLPA would ever agree to 3-year max contracts, and I don't think the GMs would like that either.

 

[KingsFan7824]

If they go after the guaranteed contracts it's going to be a bigger fight than when they got the cap. I could see how the PA might go for it, if the cap went away. The owners would eventually win, as they usually do, but the PA would have nothing to lose if the owners want the contracts.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

If they go after the guaranteed contracts it's going to be a bigger fight than when they got the cap. I could see how the PA might go for it, if the cap went away. The owners would eventually win, as they usually do, but the PA would have nothing to lose if the owners want the contracts.

I totally agree.

 

[KINGS17]

If they go after the guaranteed contracts it's going to be a bigger fight than when they got the cap. I could see how the PA might go for it, if the cap went away. The owners would eventually win, as they usually do, but the PA would have nothing to lose if the owners want the contracts.

The one thing, and the biggest thing the players always have to lose is time and current income. Most of them don't play much more than 5 years in the NHL. Missing NHL paychecks for an entire year really hurts those guys financially.

 

[Minor Boarding]

two interesting charts for lak this season: dcorsi, for forwards only. source: http://www.nullhypothesishockey.com/great-expectations-dcorsi/

forwards standing out:
- positives: brown, shore
- negatives: nolan, andreoff.

more important: overall there's a big gap in corsi for (3 players underperforming) vs corsi against (6 players underperforming), which is strange as lak leads the nhl in CF% with 56.6. any ideas how to interpret this discrepancy?

Interesting. Thank you for your post. I wonder how many of the possession problems the 4th line has are because of the dreadful faceoff %?

 

[Minor Boarding]

Well, a few guys that are underperforming are underperforming HEAVILY--notably the fourth line. Keep in mind that relative stats aren't perfect, they're trying to account for a lot of factors so it may not necessarily average to the team CF%. And Carter/Lucic appearing there tells me that the relative stat 'expects' them to have less shots against since they generate so many for and are deployed more offensively--doesn't mean theyr'e doing poorly as their percentage is still much higher, just that defensively, others are doing better.

Yeah, those stats confirm the players usage.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This will never happen. Looking at the NFL their contracts are going the other way with more and more money guaranteed

More money guaranteed but the contracts are still as smashable as ever.

I don't think their path would work in the NHL with the cap averages from year to year and such, but there are examples already of guys who got humongous signing bonuses...hell, look at Ehrhoff's last contract! It was beneficial to both team and player to 'terminate,' buy him out--the only real difference in this case would be cap savings if I'm understanding correctly.

Contracts that are able to be terminated seems to be win-win from that front since more money would be flying around, no? But I think, based on a lot of things, that NHL players seem to value stability more than athletes in other sports--that's not certain and I have no interest in really arguing about it, just making an assumption--to the degree that they'd prefer the security of a guaranteed contract vs. a little extra money. Total generalization, I know, just seems like a difference between NHL and NFL. (NFL careers are also shorter on the whole so getting a bunch of money at once is preferable, for example).

I dunno, I've agreed with KINGS17 before that I think it's something theyll discuss heavily, but if that's a hard line, it's gonna be a nasty lockout beyond what we've seen before.

 

[damacles1156]

A win for GM's would be to get the max amount of years down to Five/Six.

When the vast majority of your players reach UFA at ages 27-29, it needs to be a lower length deal.

 

[KopitarFAN]

A win for GM's would be to get the max amount of years down to Five/Six.

When the vast majority of your players reach UFA at ages 27-29, it needs to be a lower length deal.

This is not a question directed at just you, but since you brought up the typical age guys reach UFA, you don't think the players would want UFA status earlier in exchange for shorter max contracts?

 

[damacles1156]

This is not a question directed at just you, but since you brought up the typical age guys reach UFA, you don't think the players would want UFA status earlier in exchange for shorter max contracts?

They would, but that would be acceptable in my eyes. I don't think GM's would have a problem with signing their 24/25 year old to six year deals.

The problem is you have to pay this player anyway, but they are old now at 28/29 in terms of hockey years(especially if he came into the league at 19/20).

Now you have to hand that guy a contract that 80% of it, is played while he is in 30's. I think Gm's would much rather not be saddled with 30+ year old's on massive deals.

The Gm's already proposed six years max at the last CBA battle, but compromised on Eight years.

 

[mrkolice]

Well, a few guys that are underperforming are underperforming HEAVILY--notably the fourth line. Keep in mind that relative stats aren't perfect, they're trying to account for a lot of factors so it may not necessarily average to the team CF%. And Carter/Lucic appearing there tells me that the relative stat 'expects' them to have less shots against since they generate so many for and are deployed more offensively--doesn't mean theyr'e doing poorly as their percentage is still much higher, just that defensively, others are doing better.

dcorsi is difficult, i'm trying to get under its skin for a while now, it's tricky, it's both robust and delicate, and it gives that context, information rich value that must be followed with a hockey eye. but it's a big cannon. cf% is relatively easy, we know about the ocean of problems behind it, so i would not dare to put too much emphasis on it.

i was thinking in the same direction as you said: some "heavy" underperformers are paying the bill. room for improvement: imo it's on coaching. the coaching variable is not included in dcorsi, as almost everything else is, but lak had chemistry issues from the very first game of the season and that's still a problem. 4th line needs some help, one way or another. 4th line is an ultimate frontier of depth, and we'll need it to win the cup.

but overall i think lak looks fine now, it's still early.