Roster Speculation part XXII

[dotcommunism]

Bonus counts against the following year's cap, not the current year.

This isn't how it works. Potential bonuses count against the cap during the seasons they can be earned. The thing is, teams are allowed to exceed the cap due to potential bonuses, up to 7.5% of the upper limit. This is called the bonus cushion. That's why a lot of cap tracking websites don't include bonuses in their calculations, because they take it for granted that bonuses are covered by the bonus cushion and don't need to be accounted for.

Unfortunately, that isn't really correct. With a $73M cap, the bonus cushion only allows teams to exceed the cap by $5.475M due to performance bonuses. So for a team like Buffalo, where Reinhart and Eichel's performance bonuses alone add up to $5.5M, performance bonuses will not be covered by the bonus cushion, and the cap tracking sites do not accurately reflect how much cap space is available. Any performance bonuses for players other than Reinhart and Eichel (as well as $25k of their combined bonuses) are not covered by the bonus cushion.

Note also that as performance bonuses become impossible to earn during a league year, they will not longer count in the Averaged Club Salary for the remainder of that league year.

The rollover is a separate matter. At the end of the year, if actually earned bonuses cause a team to exceed the cap, that overage rolls over to the next year. In fact, it is not a cap charge, it actually lowers the club's upper limit for that league year.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I don't want any of O'Reilly/Eichel/Reinhart to be stuck with dead weight. Sam is a really good two way player right now, but idk how well he defends or creates for multiple players, especially in a position that he's still physically growing into.

And that post was mostly subtweeting Heraldic's laughable appeal to authority about how Reinhart at center was the one true answer on the previous page.

Ennis-O'Reilly-Okposo
Girgensons-Eichel-Bailey
Kane-Reinhart-Gionta

The only Ws I would say could be "dead weight" are Moulson, Deslauriers, Fasching or Bailey if they aren't ready to play (which IMO they might not be fully ready but they wouldn't be THAT bad). You can say a line of Ennis-Reinhart-Bailey would be bad, but that's foolishly trying to put two of the poorest defensive Ws with Reinhart, which I doubt even Bylsma would try.

I think there's enough talent on the wing now to not worry about Reinhart carrying anybody.

 

[DJN21]

Ennis-O'Reilly-Okposo
Girgensons-Eichel-Bailey
Kane-Reinhart-Gionta

The only Ws I would say could be "dead weight" are Moulson, Deslauriers, Fasching or Bailey if they aren't ready to play (which IMO they might not be fully ready but they wouldn't be THAT bad). You can say a line of Ennis-Reinhart-Bailey would be bad, but that's foolishly trying to put two of the poorest defensive Ws with Reinhart, which I doubt even Bylsma would try.

I think there's enough talent on the wing now to not worry about Reinhart carrying anybody.

This leaves moulson-larsson-foligno as a 4th line or even worse swap moulson For des...either way you instantly wasted the defensive prowess foligno and larsson showed to end the year...

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

This leaves moulson-larsson-foligno as a 4th line or even worse swap moulson For des...either way you instantly wasted the defensive prowess foligno and larsson showed to end the year...

Carrier...Fasching...

 

[DJN21]

Carrier...Fasching...

Where did the aforementioned players disappear to? And Fasching will be in rochester before he's on the 4th line...

 

[Ruckus007]

This isn't how it works. Potential bonuses count against the cap during the seasons they can be earned. The thing is, teams are allowed to exceed the cap due to potential bonuses, up to 7.5% of the upper limit. This is called the bonus cushion. That's why a lot of cap tracking websites don't include bonuses in their calculations, because they take it for granted that bonuses are covered by the bonus cushion and don't need to be accounted for.

Unfortunately, that isn't really correct. With a $73M cap, the bonus cushion only allows teams to exceed the cap by $5.475M due to performance bonuses. So for a team like Buffalo, where Reinhart and Eichel's performance bonuses alone add up to $5.5M, performance bonuses will not be covered by the bonus cushion, and the cap tracking sites do not accurately reflect how much cap space is available. Any performance bonuses for players other than Reinhart and Eichel (as well as $25k of their combined bonuses) are not covered by the bonus cushion.

Note also that as performance bonuses become impossible to earn during a league year, they will not longer count in the Averaged Club Salary for the remainder of that league year.

The rollover is a separate matter. At the end of the year, if actually earned bonuses cause a team to exceed the cap, that overage rolls over to the next year. In fact, it is not a cap charge, it actually lowers the club's upper limit for that league year.

Wait, the 7.5% only comes into play if a team hits the cap, right? So, in your example, if the Sabres had $1M in cap space at the end of the season, the cushion would not be exceeded, correct?

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Des is a 13th or 14th FW as is, and Moulson will probably either get a shot on a top-six line or sit...not as a 4th line after thought. I suspect Bylsma might give Moulson a shot with Okposo to see if he can get going that way. If so...

Moulson-O'Reilly-Okposo
Girgensons-Eichel-Ennis
Kane-Reinhart-Gionta/Bailey/Fasching
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta/Des/Fasching/Carrier

Several combinations for the bottom six, but Moulson does not have to be on the 4th line. This set up does not require the 4th line to be a garbage 5-6 min unit, but a quality defensive unit getting 9-10 mins ES and/or PK (exactly why Moulson wouldn't be there). Fasching would be playing quality minutes on that line as long as he proves himself. It wouldn't be garbage minutes that compare poorly to time in Rochester.

 

[DJN21]

Des is a 13th or 14th FW as is, and Moulson will probably either get a shot on a top-six line or sit...not as a 4th line after thought. I suspect Bylsma might give Moulson a shot with Okposo to see if he can get going that way. If so...

Moulson-O'Reilly-Okposo
Girgensons-Eichel-Ennis
Kane-Reinhart-Gionta/Bailey/Fasching
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta/Des/Fasching/Carrier

Several combinations for the bottom six, but Moulson does not have to be on the 4th line. This set up does not require the 4th line to be a garbage 5-6 min unit, but a quality defensive unit getting 9-10 mins ES and/or PK (exactly why Moulson wouldn't be there). Fasching would be playing quality minutes on that line as long as he proves himself. It wouldn't be garbage minutes that compare poorly to time in Rochester.

I agree completely...with your now changed lines lol. All kidding aside I agree with your general premise but you have like 16 forwards there and a changing concept. There's no way bailey, Fasching and carrier all make this team. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out...

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I agree completely...with your now changed lines lol. All kidding aside I agree with your general premise but you have like 16 forwards there and a changing concept. There's no way bailey, Fasching and carrier all make this team. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out...

Those slashes mean "one of" those players will be there, not all. It depends on who shines in camp, but I expect one of Bailey, Fasching, or maybe Carrier to make the team and play. The concept won't change though.

1st line - all-purpose unit
2nd line- high OZ scoring line
3rd line - a 2nd all-purpose unit, potential mis-match opportunities
4th line - high DZ checking unit

 

[dotcommunism]

Wait, the 7.5% only comes into play if a team hits the cap, right? So, in your example, if the Sabres had $1M in cap space at the end of the season, the cushion would not be exceeded, correct?

I'm pretty sure that the rollover can only occur if a team is exceeding the cap due to the bonus cushion, yes.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Ennis-O'Reilly-Okposo
Girgensons-Eichel-Bailey
Kane-Reinhart-Gionta

The only Ws I would say could be "dead weight" are Moulson, Deslauriers, Fasching or Bailey if they aren't ready to play (which IMO they might not be fully ready but they wouldn't be THAT bad). You can say a line of Ennis-Reinhart-Bailey would be bad, but that's foolishly trying to put two of the poorest defensive Ws with Reinhart, which I doubt even Bylsma would try.

I think there's enough talent on the wing now to not worry about Reinhart carrying anybody.

Ennis is a bad first liner, O'Reilly probably can't compensate for the defensive of both his wingers, Eichel is deprived of talent, Gionta only works on that third line if Kane-Reinhart are really good.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

Ennis is a bad first liner, O'Reilly probably can't compensate for the defensive of both his wingers, Eichel is deprived of talent, Gionta only works on that third line if Kane-Reinhart are really good.

In conclusion, this is likely coach DB's starting lineup...

 

[Heraldic]

There's very little benefit to playing Sam at 3C right now, especially given the opportunity cost of him not making our best guys better. You're pretty much stuck with one bad top 9 decision with that framework unless Fasching/Bailey hit.

And three offensive lines isn't a magical requirement of winning teams. Chicago only played its third offensive line more than Kruger when Sharp was on his way out. When Detroit won stuff, D/Z were starting most frequently in the DZone.

If Vesey signs, we really don't have "bad top-9 decisions". For example while it seems to be a trend to bash Gionta, he actually was one of our best 5v5 point producer and offense driver. His 5v5 production was 3rd best on this team - superior to ROR for example. Considering his QOC, it was the best on team. He also had less o-zone-starts. His GF/60 was also on par with ROR, being slightly lower (0,06).

No-one is talking about "three offensive lines". How about four lines, which of three are good lines defensively as well?

When Detroit "won stuff", they had Kris Draper there on a similar role as where Cullen, Krüger and Glendening have been. There we got the most recent SC winner, and two of the best coaches in the league. I think they know a bit about usage and deployment...

I see no advantage of a Reinhart third line that doesn't also exist when replacing Foligno with Kane.

Oh geez...

Foligno had worse linemates and more difficult minutes, he still produced pretty similarly with Kane on ES. Kane scored 21 points while Foligno 17, while Kane player more than 100 minutes more. Foligno also happened to have the teams best GF/60 on our team among forwards - significantly higher than Kane had.

So Kane<->Foligno most likely won't be anywhere as big as difference offensively (as well) than Reinhart<->Larsson.

I don't want any of O'Reilly/Eichel/Reinhart to be stuck with dead weight. Sam is a really good two way player right now, but idk how well he defends or creates for multiple players, especially in a position that he's still physically growing into.

And that post was mostly subtweeting Heraldic's laughable appeal to authority about how Reinhart at center was the one true answer on the previous page.

This post is laughable.

There isn't absolute truths, but there is absolutely no reason to assembly some kind of spare parts line to be our 3rd/4th line when (if we sign Vesey). We have the depth to assemble two two-way lines, one offensive line and one defensive line.

 

[OkimLom]

I find it kind of funny that people are so adamant about taking Reinhart away from Eichel, when Reinhart was really the only one Eichel truly had successful chemistry with.

Take Reinhart away from Eichel and yes you're having a more balanced lineup ON PAPER, but you're cutting yourself short by taking away the one pairing that actually shown consistency throughout the year last year.

Reinhart is a guy who meshes well with everybody. I have no problem with the idea of Reinhart centering his own line in the long term plans. But, let's wait until we actually see Jack being able to work with other guys before we split Eichel up with the one guy that works.

 

[Heraldic]

I find it kind of funny that people are so adamant about taking Reinhart away from Eichel, when Reinhart was really the only one Eichel truly had successful chemistry with.

Take Reinhart away from Eichel and yes you're having a more balanced lineup ON PAPER, but you're cutting yourself short by taking away the one pairing that actually shown consistency throughout the year last year.

Reinhart is a guy who meshes well with everybody. I have no problem with the idea of Reinhart centering his own line in the long term plans. But, let's wait until we actually see Jack being able to work with other guys before we split Eichel up with the one guy that works.

I think you can figure out the rest...

Overall Eichel really didn't have that good linemates with him last year.

But Reinhart and Eichel either weren't that kind of success story despite seeing some really flashy plays

Eichel w Reinhart

GF: 1.75 GA: 2.86

Eichel w/o Reinhart

GF: 2.11 GA: 2.41

Reinhart w/o Eichel

GF: 2.28 GA 2.00

Eichel w Girgs

GF: 2.96 GA: 1.60

Eichel w/o Girgs

GF: 1.71 GA: 2.83

Sure, together Eichel/Reinhart had at some stretch of games harder deployments than separately, and Reinhart played good chunk of games with ROR (who was clearly the superior player among those three).

Still, it's pretty sure that you should be a lot more adamant about keeping Girgs with Eichel than Reinhart.

Reinhart complements pretty much any kind of player, and if you give him at least one player who is able to drive offense, you should be able to build a good line around him. Sure, he likely needs bit time to adapt as full time center, but that would be the case anyhow.

 

[Matt Ress]

I don't buy any of this, even speculatively.
I thought it's been resoundingly debunked that BUF has any cap issues to worry about this season.
Moreover, there are way more options to clear cap than Girgensons.
And, Girgensons value (contributions vs. cost) is much higher than other Sabres.
Girgensons may be moved to obtain other talent (I doubt that, personally), but I very highly doubt he'd be moved to clear cap.

What are cap problems? Being over the cap? Yeah that's obvious cap problems but being pushed right up to the ceiling is far from ideal especially with so much young cheap talent. What if they make a run? They wouldn't be able to add a piece if they wanted. We clearly agree on Girgs but he'll have to find a home in the lineup this year.

 

[21]

I'm really starting to like the Sabres as a team but please get rid of Gionta. ;-)

 

[Heraldic]

What are cap problems? Being over the cap? Yeah that's obvious cap problems but being pushed right up to the ceiling is far from ideal especially with so much young cheap talent. What if they make a run? They wouldn't be able to add a piece if they wanted. We clearly agree on Girgs but he'll have to find a home in the lineup this year.

We have around 10 million left on our cap. You actually think we're not going to be able to get Risto, Girgs and Vesey under that?

And even if we would want to have some mobility coming deadline, why the hell would you move a cost controlled established top-9 player just to add rental top-9 player? Does that make any sense?

 

[yahhockey]

To further the Eichel/Reinhart discussion, especially with the Eichel/Girgs numbers being posted.

Should they try Eichel with Girgs and maybe Okposo? Kane/O'Reilly/Reinhart? Would you feel better about the defensive assignments with Reinhart on the line instead of Okposo? Do you maybe even drop Reinhart to the third line and try to improve that line's overall production?

 

[Sabre Dance]

I think you can figure out the rest...

Overall Eichel really didn't have that good linemates with him last year.

But Reinhart and Eichel either weren't that kind of success story despite seeing some really flashy plays

Eichel w Reinhart

GF: 1.75 GA: 2.86

Eichel w/o Reinhart

GF: 2.11 GA: 2.41

Reinhart w/o Eichel

GF: 2.28 GA 2.00

Eichel w Girgs

GF: 2.96 GA: 1.60

Eichel w/o Girgs

GF: 1.71 GA: 2.83

Sure, together Eichel/Reinhart had at some stretch of games harder deployments than separately, and Reinhart played good chunk of games with ROR (who was clearly the superior player among those three).

Still, it's pretty sure that you should be a lot more adamant about keeping Girgs with Eichel than Reinhart.

Reinhart complements pretty much any kind of player, and if you give him at least one player who is able to drive offense, you should be able to build a good line around him. Sure, he likely needs bit time to adapt as full time center, but that would be the case anyhow.

Is it possible to get these numbers from the Christmas break to the end of the season? There was such a big difference in Eichel and Reinhart after the break.

 

[Aladyyn]

To further the Eichel/Reinhart discussion, especially with the Eichel/Girgs numbers being posted.

Should they try Eichel with Girgs and maybe Okposo? Kane/O'Reilly/Reinhart? Would you feel better about the defensive assignments with Reinhart on the line instead of Okposo? Do you maybe even drop Reinhart to the third line and try to improve that line's overall production?

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Girgensons-Eichel-Reinhart would be ridiculously good.

 

[joshjull]

I find it kind of funny that people are so adamant about taking Reinhart away from Eichel, when Reinhart was really the only one Eichel truly had successful chemistry with.

Take Reinhart away from Eichel and yes you're having a more balanced lineup ON PAPER, but you're cutting yourself short by taking away the one pairing that actually shown consistency throughout the year last year.

Reinhart is a guy who meshes well with everybody. I have no problem with the idea of Reinhart centering his own line in the long term plans. But, let's wait until we actually see Jack being able to work with other guys before we split Eichel up with the one guy that works.

That's quite the spin to frame it as we adamantly want to get Reinhart away from Eichel. As opposed to arguing for what we feel is the best use of our top 3 centers. Something we feel would make our overall top 9 better. No we just simply want to get Reinhart away from Eichel.

Can we also stop with the fairytale that Eichel did his best with Reinhart or had some magical chemistry with him. As the numbers point out, their production together was nothing special nor was their defensive play. What they did have was a nice run with Kane for 7 games.

Eichel had a steak of 27pts in 27 games before that stretch (after the trade deadline) with first Kane/Reinhart then just Reinhart. He played a lot of those 27gms with Girgs and McGinn.. Which tells you when he gets going it really doesn't matter who his wingers are as long as they can support him. The except most of the year was Kane, who generally worked against him minus 7gms when Reinhart was with them.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Girgensons-Eichel-Reinhart would be ridiculously good.

That line was together last year when ROR returned from injury. I dont know what the advanced stats were during that stretch of games though.

You know who else has great goal % stats with Eichel? Moulson.

 

[joshjull]

That line was together last year when ROR returned from injury. I dont know what the advanced stats were during that stretch of games though.

You know who else has great goal % stats with Eichel? Moulson.

Girgs was with them for some of that time. Then it was Des and someone else who got a game or two but I can't recall who it was.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Ennis is a bad first liner, O'Reilly probably can't compensate for the defensive of both his wingers, Eichel is deprived of talent, Gionta only works on that third line if Kane-Reinhart are really good.

Ennis is a bad 1st liner - maybe, but so is Kane then. In fact there is no "good" 1st line LW.

O'Reilly can't compensate for his wingers - Ennis can be a handful, but Okposo is not bad defensively.

Eichel deprived of talent - I'd say he's got great speed on both sides, from guys that can bang around the net. Po-TAY-to, po-TAH-to.

Gionta worked fine as an offensive winger for his whole career, I think he can figure it out with just Reinhart.