Speculation: Roster Speculation: Part XVI (Off-Season Madness)

[stokes84]

I've said this before - but why doesn't Anaheim match any remotely sensible offer sheet ?

Don't get me wrong I'd love Lindholm - but for anything close to $10m/per I probably wouldn't...

.

They are a budget team who spends about $64 mil per year. They have a number of younger players to sign and they already have a young, top pairing LD in Fowler at a friendly cap hit. They can either break their budget for one guy, or they can work within their budget and make sure they keep multiple quality players. Either way, it puts them in a tough spot where they will have to make hard choices. Budget teams live and die with the draft and ELCs.

Currently, they sit at a little over $53 million going into next year. Perron, McGinn, Horcoff, and Stewart are all coming off the books, but will all need to be replaced. Pirri and Rackell are RFA forwards, and Vatanen and Lindholm are RFA defensemen. Andersen is an RFA goalie. So if they are playing by last year's budget, they have $11 million to fill out 9 roster spots. If you offer $7.3 mil per year to Lindholm, they are up a creek trying to fill out that roster as a budget team.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I envision our top 6 barring any big personnel changes as being:

Girgensons-ROR-Ennis
Kane-Eichel-Reinhart

Girgs and ROR can cover up for Ennis and let him do stuff with the puck on offense Can't separate Jack and Sam, they are too good together. And Kane played his best hockey alongside them. But a lot of things can change obviously.

I wasn't saying they should be the exact lines - just trying to illustrate the depth chart we'd still have despite making two big (1st + player) moves for LHD.

They are a budget team who spends about $64 mil per year. They have a number of younger players to sign and they already have a young, top pairing LD in Fowler at a friendly cap hit. They can either break their budget for one guy, or they can work within their budget and make sure they keep multiple quality players. Either way, it puts them in a tough spot where they will have to make hard choices. Budget teams live and die with the draft and ELCs.

Lindholm is the type of player you either change your budget - or reshape your roster - to keep around. I just think hoping they wouldn't match something even remotely sensible is wishful thinking on our part.

I've just searched the current compensation brackets:

<$7.3m/per (1st, 2nd, 3rd) - I see them matching anything here pretty easily
$7.3-9.1m/per (2x1st, 2nd, 3rd) - I see them very likely matching offers within this range
>$9.1m/per (4x1st) - This is where I think they could walk away - as much for the picks they would receive than anything else.

As I said I think Lindholm is a perfect target - I'm also advocating moving the next 2 1st round picks above so don't want to come across hypocritical - but I think using four consecutive 1st rounders & a salary approaching $10m/per on one player is just too much.

Using my example above - you could get Brodin AND Fowler for similar assets & salary.

Its not directly related either but I don't think there is anyone here who wouldn't have taken the picks for the Vanek/Edmonton OS a few years back...

 

[Chainshot]

In other words, still: Toews & Kane; McDavid & Draisaitl; Hakstol; Boeser & Stecher; idk; Eichel & Reinhart.

Less cluttered since none of the 4 lottery teams wins a Finn.

 

[TehDoak]

This is my a bit more realistic take on what the Sabres will probably do:

Trade:
To Buffalo: Nash
To NYR: Fransen, 2016 2nd, conditional 2017 2nd (depending on Nash production)

Sign Girgensons to 4 year, 10M deal
Sign Foligno to 2 year, 4.5M deal
Sign Risto to 6 year, 36M
Sign Gologoski to a 5 year, 27.5M deal

Kane-O'Reilly-Ennis
Nash-Eichel-Reinhart
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
Moulson-Girgensons-Catnacci
Deslaurier

Gologoski-Risto
Gorges-Bogo
McCabe-Pysyk

Lehner
Ullmark


BUYOUTS
C. Hodgson ($541,667)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 21
NHL Salary Cap: $74,000,000
LTIR: $1,500,000
Cap Hit: $71,129,524
Cap Space: $2,870,476

 

[Zman5778]

This is my a bit more realistic take on what the Sabres will probably do:

Trade:
To Buffalo: Nash
To NYR: Fransen, 2016 2nd, conditional 2017 2nd (depending on Nash production)

Sign Girgensons to 4 year, 10M deal
Sign Foligno to 2 year, 4.5M deal
Sign Risto to 6 year, 36M
Sign Gologoski to a 5 year, 27.5M deal

Kane-O'Reilly-Ennis
Nash-Eichel-Reinhart
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
Moulson-Girgensons-Catnacci
Deslaurier

Gologoski-Risto
Gorges-Bogo
McCabe-Pysyk

Lehner
Ullmark


BUYOUTS
C. Hodgson ($541,667)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 21
NHL Salary Cap: $74,000,000
LTIR: $1,500,000
Cap Hit: $71,129,524
Cap Space: $2,870,476

Have you accounted for Sam and Jack's bonuses to be applied?

 

[Djp]

Have you accounted for Sam and Jack's bonuses to be applied?

Unsure how much bonus money they get....

I thought the bonus money for 15/16 applies to 15/16 cap. Teams are allowed to pay bonuses up to something like 7% above the cap and then anything over that gets rolled over to the next year.

 

[Moskau]

Would much rather have Ullmark start in Rochester next season. He has a ton to prove even at that level and let's not forget he was playing months before most people thought possible. He needs to stay in the AHL and have a Matt Murray type season.

 

[TehDoak]

Have you accounted for Sam and Jack's bonuses to be applied?

I'm reasonably sure the site I used (cap friendly) does not include bonuses. It also doesn't actually take off LTIR players (McCormick), so it's not quite a wash, but I think the bonuses give a little wiggle room.

Worst case scenario the bonuses would push to next season.

 

[Zman5778]

I thought the bonus money for 15/16 applies to 15/16 cap. Teams are allowed to pay bonuses up to something like 7% above the cap and then anything over that gets rolled over to the next year.

Where's Dotcomm.....paging dotcomm.....

I've always thought that bonuses get applied to the next year's cap.

 

[Moskau]

Where's Dotcomm.....paging dotcomm.....

I've always thought that bonuses get applied to the next year's cap.

99% sure they do because Panarin hitting his bonuses did some damage to Chicago's cap next season.

 

[Chainshot]

Would much rather have Ullmark start in Rochester next season. He has a ton to prove even at that level and let's not forget he was playing months before most people thought possible. He needs to stay in the AHL and have a Matt Murray type season.

Yeah, Ullmark has a long, long path to iron out his game. Leave him in Rochester, backfill the backup with someone NHL-proven.

 

[TehDoak]

Where's Dotcomm.....paging dotcomm.....

I've always thought that bonuses get applied to the next year's cap.

99% sure they do because Panarin hitting his bonuses did some damage to Chicago's cap next season.

Bonuses that cause you to go OVER the cap get applied to next year. Panarin's bonuses are causing the Hawks to go over the cap, thus they will be applied to next year. Boston had the same issue a few years back.

If you stay under the cap, bonuses for this year stay on this year.

 

[dotcommunism]

Where's Dotcomm.....paging dotcomm.....

I've always thought that bonuses get applied to the next year's cap.

Short version: Bonuses only rollover to the next season, cap-wise, if they cause a cap overage.

More elaborate version: Potential performance bonuses count against the salary cap, but the bonus cushion allows teams to exceed the salary cap by up to 7.5% due to bonuses. At the conclusion of the league year, bonuses that are actually earned are charged against that year's cap and any overages that result roll over to the next season.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

8OA + Baptiste for Trouba, who says no?

 

[Beerz]

8OA + Baptiste for Trouba, who says no?

Probably both teams.

I think Trouba is overrated and I think Jets are fixated on his rookie year

 

[stokes84]

8OA + Baptiste for Trouba, who says no?

Righty. Passed on depth chart by Myers. I'll pass.

 

[Chainshot]

I have struggled with this for a long time, but I do not trust Murray's judgement with defensemen yet. What he did to the Amerks this year was criminal and what he managed to provide last season was in fact perfect for driving Zee Tank. Bogosian is what he was with the Thrash/Jets -- ****ing inconsistent. Colaiacovo was on par with Benoit and Meszaros in terms of turds, Franson perhaps just a cut above that. McCabe wound up in the lineup because there was no other LD option. So. Gorges? Ugh. What is a "Murray" defenseman and is he able to acquire one that will actually make a difference on the ice?

 

[sabrebuild]

I have struggled with this for a long time, but I do not trust Murray's judgement with defensemen yet. What he did to the Amerks this year was criminal and what he managed to provide last season was in fact perfect for driving Zee Tank. Bogosian is what he was with the Thrash/Jets -- ****ing inconsistent. Colaiacovo was on par with Benoit and Meszaros in terms of turds, Franson perhaps just a cut above that. McCabe wound up in the lineup because there was no other LD option. So. Gorges? Ugh. What is a "Murray" defenseman and is he able to acquire one that will actually make a difference on the ice?

I agree with a lot of this. I understand that going into this year there was a limited opportunity to bring in a good lhd, outside of sekera.

But I don't like Bogosian's game at all, and a good move this off season for a ready to go roster player at defense is a necessity.

I continue to watch the playoffs and think we need at least 3 studs to have a legit contender.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

I have struggled with this for a long time, but I do not trust Murray's judgement with defensemen yet. What he did to the Amerks this year was criminal and what he managed to provide last season was in fact perfect for driving Zee Tank. Bogosian is what he was with the Thrash/Jets -- ****ing inconsistent. Colaiacovo was on par with Benoit and Meszaros in terms of turds, Franson perhaps just a cut above that. McCabe wound up in the lineup because there was no other LD option. So. Gorges? Ugh. What is a "Murray" defenseman and is he able to acquire one that will actually make a difference on the ice?

I couldn't agree more. I think the bluntness/conviction can mask his results here. Still an incomplete, but this is a big year on this front.

 

[Moskau]

I have struggled with this for a long time, but I do not trust Murray's judgement with defensemen yet. What he did to the Amerks this year was criminal and what he managed to provide last season was in fact perfect for driving Zee Tank. Bogosian is what he was with the Thrash/Jets -- ****ing inconsistent. Colaiacovo was on par with Benoit and Meszaros in terms of turds, Franson perhaps just a cut above that. McCabe wound up in the lineup because there was no other LD option. So. Gorges? Ugh. What is a "Murray" defenseman and is he able to acquire one that will actually make a difference on the ice?

I'm right there with you. Something I touched on today is that he preaches Hockey IQ but his roster moves besides RoR have been dumb players who are freak athletes. He described the type of defensemen he liked after he was hired and he said Hockey IQ first and athletic ability second. He's apparently very high on McCabe though and not so much on Pysyk which throws me off. McCabe is more in the Bogosian mold and Pysyk is more in the mold of defensemen he described preferring. It's very confusing. I guess we will find out this summer what he truly prefers. He really hasn't had the opportunity to add a defensemen.

 

[GameMisconduct]

I'm right there with you. Something I touched on today is that he preaches Hockey IQ but his roster moves besides RoR have been dumb players who are freak athletes. He described the type of defensemen he liked after he was hired and he said Hockey IQ first and athletic ability second. He's apparently very high on McCabe though and not so much on Pysyk which throws me off. McCabe is more in the Bogosian mold and Pysyk is more in the mold of defensemen he described preferring. It's very confusing. I guess we will find out this summer what he truly prefers. He really hasn't had the opportunity to add a defensemen.

I have struggled with this for a long time, but I do not trust Murray's judgement with defensemen yet. What he did to the Amerks this year was criminal and what he managed to provide last season was in fact perfect for driving Zee Tank. Bogosian is what he was with the Thrash/Jets -- ****ing inconsistent. Colaiacovo was on par with Benoit and Meszaros in terms of turds, Franson perhaps just a cut above that. McCabe wound up in the lineup because there was no other LD option. So. Gorges? Ugh. What is a "Murray" defenseman and is he able to acquire one that will actually make a difference on the ice?

I think something to keep in mind re: pursuing D is that who we ended up with in FA (Franson, Cola) last season doesn't seem to be at all who he targeted (Oduya), but rather what he had to settle for--something that I think is partially borne out by length of time between the start of FA and when we eventually signed Franson. The full court press for Oduya, who Chicago clearly missed, is more telling. I also think identifying and targeting a player like Guhle in the draft is significant.

It's also hard to ignore that even drafting Eichel, there wasn't that much to make Buffalo seem an attractive destination for players that wanted to win. When someone controls their fate, that is a major factor.

This offseason is a different story. The perception is changing as is the impetus to win. The downside is how many other teams we will be in competition with.

Re: Pysyk, I'm a big fan of his potential, but I also think he clearly did not take the step forward I was expecting and struggled. I think a shift in viewing him as a very likely to develop into a top 4 to more tempered expectations and as a possible asset to be used in pursuit of an upgrade is quite reasonable.

 

[Beerz]

Your smarts can only take you so far. Pysyk is what he's always going to be.. a tweener between bottom pairing and top 4...maybe thats all that McCabe is but he at least adds some beneficial intangibles as well as at least some offense.

I still love the Bogo move even tho last year was quite the struggle.

If we can get him to combine the season he had for us two years ago with his warrior type D and the guy we got last year being aggressive in ozone toward the end then I am tickled pink.

Yes. Consistency is an issue.

 

[EichHart]

Your smarts can only take you so far. Pysyk is what he's always going to be.. a tweener between bottom pairing and top 4...maybe thats all that McCabe is but he at least adds some beneficial intangibles as well as at least some offense.

I still love the Bogo move even tho last year was quite the struggle.

If we can get him to combine the season he had for us two years ago with his warrior type D and the guy we got last year being aggressive in ozone toward the end then I am tickled pink.

Yes. Consistency is an issue.

Which is why I think we take a d at 8 and bring in a stop gap d for this season while they develop.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

I'm right there with you. Something I touched on today is that he preaches Hockey IQ but his roster moves besides RoR have been dumb players who are freak athletes. He described the type of defensemen he liked after he was hired and he said Hockey IQ first and athletic ability second. He's apparently very high on McCabe though and not so much on Pysyk which throws me off. McCabe is more in the Bogosian mold and Pysyk is more in the mold of defensemen he described preferring. It's very confusing. I guess we will find out this summer what he truly prefers. He really hasn't had the opportunity to add a defensemen.

He's drafted 5 defensemen - Martin, Guhle, Borgen, Stephens, Chukarov. And targeted and signed Casey Nelson. Traded for Bogosian. Signed free agent dmen for Buffalo/Rochester. So there is some history/evidence to consider.

Guhle and Borgen are looking to be great picks. Borgen at the WJC played with and as well as McAvoy who is a mid round 1st round pick this year. Guhle in a re-draft The Hockey News did ranked Guhle as a late 1st rounder.

He does seem to really like McCabe, as I do.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Short version: Bonuses only rollover to the next season, cap-wise, if they cause a cap overage.

More elaborate version: Potential performance bonuses count against the salary cap, but the bonus cushion allows teams to exceed the salary cap by up to 7.5% due to bonuses. At the conclusion of the league year, bonuses that are actually earned are charged against that year's cap and any overages that result roll over to the next season.

Does the bonus apply to the next season in a rollover after applying all that could be to the current season's cap plus bonus cushion?