Speculation: Roster Speculation: Part XVI (Off-Season Madness)

[Beerz]

When can you start contacting a RFA's agent to begin discussing signing an offer sheet?

 

[dotcommunism]

Does the bonus apply to the next season in a rollover after applying all that could be to the current season's cap plus bonus cushion?

Bonus cushion doesn't affect the rollover amount. The bonus cushion allows a team to exceed the cap due to potential bonuses. Rollover is based on how much over a cap a team was due to paid out bonuses. A team cannot exceed the cap beyond the bonus cushion (barring LTIR or similar measures).

So for example: let's suppose a $70M cap, which means the bonus cushion would allow a team's performance bonuses to take it up to $75.25M. So, let's take Team A with $70M in salary/signing bonuses. That team could have another $5.25M in performance bonuses. Let's also take Team B, with $65M in salary/signing bonuses. Team B could have $10.25M in performance bonuses. Under such a $70M cap, any team that had more than the bonus cushion ($5.25M) worth of performance bonuses would need to be the same amount below $70M in actual salary/signing bonuses

Continuing our example here, let's suppose that at the end of the league year, both Team A and Team B end up having their players earn $3M of their performance bonuses. Team A's earned bonuses (plus salary/signing bonuses) would put them at $73M, which would give them a $3M rollover for the next season. Team B's earned bonuses (plus salary/signing bonuses) would put them at $68M, which would be below the upper limit, meaning there would be no rollover.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Bonus cushion doesn't affect the rollover amount. The bonus cushion allows a team to exceed the cap due to potential bonuses. Rollover is based on how much over a cap a team was due to paid out bonuses. A team cannot exceed the cap beyond the bonus cushion (barring LTIR or similar measures).

So for example: let's suppose a $70M cap, which means the bonus cushion would allow a team's performance bonuses to take it up to $75.25M. So, let's take Team A with $70M in salary/signing bonuses. That team could have another $5.25M in performance bonuses. Let's also take Team B, with $65M in salary/signing bonuses. Team B could have $10.25M in performance bonuses. Under such a $70M cap, any team that had more than the bonus cushion ($5.25M) worth of performance bonuses would need to be the same amount below $70M in actual salary/signing bonuses

Continuing our example here, let's suppose that at the end of the league year, both Team A and Team B end up having their players earn $3M of their performance bonuses. Team A's earned bonuses (plus salary/signing bonuses) would put them at $73M, which would give them a $3M rollover for the next season. Team B's earned bonuses (plus salary/signing bonuses) would put them at $68M, which would be below the upper limit, meaning there would be no rollover.

Think I got it. To confirm: $70M cap with $75.25M bonus cushion. Team salary plus bonuses up to $75.25M count against and paid for against that season's cap. Anything more than $75.25M rolls over to the next season's cap.

 

[Djp]

Short version: Bonuses only rollover to the next season, cap-wise, if they cause a cap overage.

More elaborate version: Potential performance bonuses count against the salary cap, but the bonus cushion allows teams to exceed the salary cap by up to 7.5% due to bonuses. At the conclusion of the league year, bonuses that are actually earned are charged against that year's cap and any overages that result roll over to the next season.

That 7.5%----doesn't that also count paid salary over the cap ( not bonus money). This could happen in teams up to the cap and then needing to use LTIR to call up replacement players

Bonuses that cause you to go OVER the cap get applied to next year. Panarin's bonuses are causing the Hawks to go over the cap, thus they will be applied to next year. Boston had the same issue a few years back.

If you stay under the cap, bonuses for this year stay on this year.

My understanding is what boston did with Iginla is something slightly different.

a 35+ players contract can be incentive filled and the bonus paid are specificalley set up to apply the next season. Alfie had something similar in Detroit.

 

[dotcommunism]

When can you start contacting a RFA's agent to begin discussing signing an offer sheet?

Looks like June 28th

Think I got it. To confirm: $70M cap with $75.25M bonus cushion. Team salary plus bonuses up to $75.25M count against and paid for against that season's cap. Anything more than $75.25M rolls over to the next season's cap.

Not quite. With the bonus cushion, and a $70M cap, the total amount of salary and performance bonuses cannot be more than $75.25M period (again, barring things like LTIR) and only performance bonuses can account for any amount over $70M. Any actual bonuses paid over the $70M cap rollover to the next season.

 

[JThorne]

I want Ennis nowhere near Eichel. Ennis's proclivity for turnovers at the opposing blueline will put Eichel in a constant fear of being aggressive on offense.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

We're stuck with trying to make it work with Ennis and Moulson - in 2014-15 our #1 line was Moulson-Girgensons-Ennis - I think reunite them as a 4th line with offensive pop, it keeps Moulson and Ennis away from Eichel,Reinhart,ROR.

1. Kane-O'Reilly-Bailey/Fasching
2. ?????- Eichel-Reinhart
3. Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
4. Moulson-Girgensons-Ennis

Can move Girgensons up to 2nd line by replacing him on the 4th with another center - possibly Schaller or another center Murray picks up

I'd love to see Rodrigues given a shot playing with Eichel and Reinhart

 

[Husko]

We're stuck with trying to make it work with Ennis and Moulson - in 2014-15 our #1 line was Moulson-Girgensons-Ennis - I think reunite them as a 4th line with offensive pop, it keeps Moulson and Ennis away from Eichel,Reinhart,ROR.

1. Kane-O'Reilly-Bailey/Fasching
2. ?????- Eichel-Reinhart
3. Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
4. Moulson-Girgensons-Ennis

Can move Girgensons up to 2nd line by replacing him on the 4th with another center - possibly Schaller or another center Murray picks up

I'd love to see Rodrigues given a shot playing with Eichel and Reinhart

I'd rather have Bailey/Fasching in Rochester, Ennis in an actual offensive role where he can produce good enough to get traded, Girgensons in a more prominent role because he's good, and Moulson in Elmira until get retires

 

[Chainshot]

I want Ennis nowhere near Eichel. Ennis's proclivity for turnovers at the opposing blueline will put Eichel in a constant fear of being aggressive on offense.

Ennis with O'Reilly and Girgensons could be a decent possession and defensive line that could counter-punch given Ennis speed. That puts Kane-Eichel-Reinhart back together and they had seemed to put things together as a trio prior to Kane going back on IR. Foligno-Larsson-Gionta gets the checking line assignments and then the Ice Cream Man and whatever other leftovers round out the 4th line.

Kane's ability to get the puck up the ice and forecheck seems like a better match to Eichel than Ennis' puck skills with their attendant turnovers.

 

[Chainshot]

I couldn't agree more. I think the bluntness/conviction can mask his results here. Still an incomplete, but this is a big year on this front.

If he was courting Zaitsev, great, that's a feather in his cap as well, though not being able to close the deal and seeing him off to a division rival hurts. I'm wondering if he's in on Kempny and his signing of Nelson is a solid addition. That said, still vaguely unsettled in my mind.

I'm right there with you. Something I touched on today is that he preaches Hockey IQ but his roster moves besides RoR have been dumb players who are freak athletes. He described the type of defensemen he liked after he was hired and he said Hockey IQ first and athletic ability second. He's apparently very high on McCabe though and not so much on Pysyk which throws me off. McCabe is more in the Bogosian mold and Pysyk is more in the mold of defensemen he described preferring. It's very confusing. I guess we will find out this summer what he truly prefers. He really hasn't had the opportunity to add a defensemen.

Guhle's also got that freakish VO2 thing and tested well at the combine. Stephens can skate all day but there are the questions about application of those skills and how he thinks the game. Animal wingers? Fine. Turn them loose in their lanes and let them go. Defense? Eh.

I think something to keep in mind re: pursuing D is that who we ended up with in FA (Franson, Cola) last season doesn't seem to be at all who he targeted (Oduya), but rather what he had to settle for--something that I think is partially borne out by length of time between the start of FA and when we eventually signed Franson. The full court press for Oduya, who Chicago clearly missed, is more telling. I also think identifying and targeting a player like Guhle in the draft is significant.

It's also hard to ignore that even drafting Eichel, there wasn't that much to make Buffalo seem an attractive destination for players that wanted to win. When someone controls their fate, that is a major factor.

This offseason is a different story. The perception is changing as is the impetus to win. The downside is how many other teams we will be in competition with.

Re: Pysyk, I'm a big fan of his potential, but I also think he clearly did not take the step forward I was expecting and struggled. I think a shift in viewing him as a very likely to develop into a top 4 to more tempered expectations and as a possible asset to be used in pursuit of an upgrade is quite reasonable.

That could very well be and he's nothing if not firm in his convictions about acquiring a player if need be. I do wonder who he has his sights set on this summer.

He's drafted 5 defensemen - Martin, Guhle, Borgen, Stephens, Chukarov. And targeted and signed Casey Nelson. Traded for Bogosian. Signed free agent dmen for Buffalo/Rochester. So there is some history/evidence to consider.

Guhle and Borgen are looking to be great picks. Borgen at the WJC played with and as well as McAvoy who is a mid round 1st round pick this year. Guhle in a re-draft The Hockey News did ranked Guhle as a late 1st rounder.

He does seem to really like McCabe, as I do.

McCabe has lost some of his luster for me. There is some Jack Johnson to his game, both good and bad. There isn't an issue for it if he has someone covering for whatever stroll he's taking, but paired with Bogosian... it's like Thing 1 and Thing 2 out there. His depth signings have been pretty weak. That has to change.

Borgen is a nice find and Guhle is a coup drafting-wise, but the scouting/drafting side was supposed to be Murray's forte. If they pick McAvoy, I'm fine with that -- thick RHD with ferocious shots and active physical games are alright in my book -- though at 8 it probably kicks up a ****-storm.

In Rochester, Sanguinetti apparently is still recovering from an injury from '14-15 and yet they brought him in. Donovan was not a good defensive player nor consistent. Bagnall wasn't replaced stylistically until nearly the end of the season and Leduc was retained even though A) he was terrible and B) he was really terrible.

I wonder if he's looking at a team he has history with and is trying to work something out. And by that, I mean LA. Would he, could he swing the "Standard Pack" Sabre offer out to the Kings for one of Muzzin or Martinez? (By Standard Pack, I mean Girgensons, Pysyk, and a pick, all the rage these days, everyone should get one.)

 

[TehDoak]

I have struggled with this for a long time, but I do not trust Murray's judgement with defensemen yet. What he did to the Amerks this year was criminal and what he managed to provide last season was in fact perfect for driving Zee Tank. Bogosian is what he was with the Thrash/Jets -- ****ing inconsistent. Colaiacovo was on par with Benoit and Meszaros in terms of turds, Franson perhaps just a cut above that. McCabe wound up in the lineup because there was no other LD option. So. Gorges? Ugh. What is a "Murray" defenseman and is he able to acquire one that will actually make a difference on the ice?

Re: Bogosian

It's been hard to separate when Bogosian has been healthy and when he's been injured. He certainly was a big part of the teams strong second half but was also part of the teams struggles in dec/jan.

 

[Chainshot]

Re: Bogosian

It's been hard to separate when Bogosian has been healthy and when he's been injured. He certainly was a big part of the teams strong second half but was also part of the teams struggles in dec/jan.

His offensive game and psycho play were good in the 2nd half, but his defensive ability is not exactly top notch.

 

[stokes84]

Ducks fans asking for McDavid for Lindholm on the trade board. They really don't understand how screwed they are.

After a little numbers crunching of the Ducks situation, it almost seems inevitable that he has to be moved.

 

[Aladyyn]

Ducks fans asking for McDavid for Lindholm on the trade board. They really don't understand how screwed they are.

After a little numbers crunching of the Ducks situation, it almost seems inevitable that he has to be moved.

The problem is that if that's the case, there are 29 teams that should be in on him.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Not quite. With the bonus cushion, and a $70M cap, the total amount of salary and performance bonuses cannot be more than $75.25M period (again, barring things like LTIR) and only performance bonuses can account for any amount over $70M. Any actual bonuses paid over the $70M cap rollover to the next season.

So, you can go over the cap with potential bonus earnings, but anything actually paid over the cap rolls over to the next season.

 

[stokes84]

The problem is that if that's the case, there are 29 teams that should be in on him.

Oh I totally agree. He's going to get a hefty price, but it has to basically be a player on an ELC for the Ducks to consider. Maybe EDM will move Draisaitl or the 4th pick for him. Definitely not saying it's going to be easy for us to acquire, just that I think it's impossible for the Ducks to keep him without completely obliterating their depth.

 

[Captain Holt]

I think that if we manage to get Vesey, it will be under assurance he won't be going to Roch. Throw him on a line with Jack and Sam.

 

[dkollidas]

Ducks fans asking for McDavid for Lindholm on the trade board. They really don't understand how screwed they are.

After a little numbers crunching of the Ducks situation, it almost seems inevitable that he has to be moved.

I don't think it's "inevitable" that Lindholm is dealt.i think it's "almost inevitable" as you say, that one of their big-3 (Fowler/Vatanen/Lindholm) will be dealt, but the question is which one?

Reasons for thinking it could, possibly, hoping & praying... It could be Lindholm:

If Anaheim gets into a situation where term is a problem (say Anaheim wants to do a 3yr bridge while Lindholm wants 6-8yrs, that could be a problem), and it seems like this could be coming to fruition, then he becomes a more likely candidate of their "big-3" (Lindholm/Vatanen/Fowler). They have a window that is closing, paying a long term contract of almost $6M to a guy who's production might not meet that cost (at least in the eyes of some) for a year or two, could be seen as money, and more importantly, time unwisely spent.

One reason to keep Fowler and deal one of the other two is that he has a $4M cap hit, a bargain of a deal for the current return. Management seems to view Fowler as their #1 d-man and his money is a big factor for a budget team.

Vatanen might also hold value worth keeping because he'll likely be cheaper to re-sign than Lindholm, and will likely get a deal similar to Fowler, maybe a little less if short term, a little more if it's a long term deal. He's also their best right handed defenseman, a highly valued commodity in the NHL. If he departs, Anaheim's top-3 RHD are Manson, Bieksa, Montour. Theodore and Despres can play the off-hand, but Despres looked bad at it in the playoffs and do you really trust a rookie pick moved to be on his off-hand his first year in the league).

Also, I think another factor is Andersen. Everyone feels he'll be dealt. But they went back to him in the playoffs and may see him as a necessity to keep their closing window open. Lindholm will likely be the highest cap hit of their big-3, so re-signing him long-term effectively eliminated the idea of bringing Andersen back (even on a short term deal). If Vatanen is signed to a 3yr deal, it'll likely save enough space to resign Andersen for a year.

I understand that this is all hypothetical. Probably unlikely. But go back and look at the offers for Hamilton and Saad. If you offered the #2 pick for Saad or Hamilton last season, both fan bases said "no way! Our guy is gonna get signed long term, he's too important, he's an excellent player" etc. Saad left for Anisimov Dano and filler. Hamilton for a mid-1st and two 2nd's.

Plus on our side, if there is anyone aggressive enough to make those kind of moves/threats of offer sheets/etc, it's Tim Murray.

 

[dkollidas]

I think that if we manage to get Vesey, it will be under assurance he won't be going to Roch. Throw him on a line with Jack and Sam.

For sure. Vesey-Eichel-Reinhart would be great.
Or even Vesey-Eichel-Fasching
Or Vesey-Eichel-Girgensons

If Buffalo grabs one of Vesey or Caggiula I'll be thrilled. Should try to trade for Vesey's rights

 

[stokes84]

I don't think it's "inevitable" that Lindholm is dealt.i think it's "almost inevitable" as you say, that one of their big-3 (Fowler/Vatanen/Lindholm) will be dealt, but the question is which one?

Reasons for thinking it could, possibly, hoping & praying... It could be Lindholm:

If Anaheim gets into a situation where term is a problem (say Anaheim wants to do a 3yr bridge while Lindholm wants 6-8yrs, that could be a problem), and it seems like this could be coming to fruition, then he becomes a more likely candidate of their "big-3" (Lindholm/Vatanen/Fowler). They have a window that is closing, paying a long term contract of almost $6M to a guy who's production might not meet that cost (at least in the eyes of some) for a year or two, could be seen as money, and more importantly, time unwisely spent.

One reason to keep Fowler and deal one of the other two is that he has a $4M cap hit, a bargain of a deal for the current return. Management seems to view Fowler as their #1 d-man and his money is a big factor for a budget team.

Vatanen might also hold value worth keeping because he'll likely be cheaper to re-sign than Lindholm, and will likely get a deal similar to Fowler, maybe a little less if short term, a little more if it's a long term deal. He's also their best right handed defenseman, a highly valued commodity in the NHL. If he departs, Anaheim's top-3 RHD are Manson, Bieksa, Montour. Theodore and Despres can play the off-hand, but Despres looked bad at it in the playoffs and do you really trust a rookie pick moved to be on his off-hand his first year in the league).

Also, I think another factor is Andersen. Everyone feels he'll be dealt. But they went back to him in the playoffs and may see him as a necessity to keep their closing window open. Lindholm will likely be the highest cap hit of their big-3, so re-signing him long-term effectively eliminated the idea of bringing Andersen back (even on a short term deal). If Vatanen is signed to a 3yr deal, it'll likely save enough space to resign Andersen for a year.

I understand that this is all hypothetical. Probably unlikely. But go back and look at the offers for Hamilton and Saad. If you offered the #2 pick for Saad or Hamilton last season, both fan bases said "no way! Our guy is gonna get signed long term, he's too important, he's an excellent player" etc. Saad left for Anisimov Dano and filler. Hamilton for a mid-1st and two 2nd's.

Plus on our side, if there is anyone aggressive enough to make those kind of moves/threats of offer sheets/etc, it's Tim Murray.

Anaheim is an internal cap team, this year spending about $64 million. They have 4 UFA forwards and 5 RFAs that came off the books. This leaves them currently at $53 million. Assuming their internal cap stays the same or only slightly increases, that means they have 9 holes to fill. RFAs are Lindholm, Vatanen, Andersen, Rackell, and Pirri. If they match an offersheet of $7.3 mil for Lindholm, they have about $4 million to fill 8 roster holes. Almost impossible. Even if they traded an expensive player, for the sake of argument, Kevin Bieksa, for draft picks, that would mean that they have around $8 million to fill 9 roster spots. They would have to say goodbye to Vatanen, Andersen, Rackell, all of their UFAs, probably Pirri too. 9 roster spots to fill with less than a million per player. That would be a cataclysmic event for a hockey team. And that's with them clearing out salary.

 

[Jame]

Lindholm is the last person Anaheim should be moving to deal with their cap...

I bet they find a way to move Perry.

 

[haseoke39]

Anaheim is an internal cap team, this year spending about $64 million. They have 4 UFA forwards and 5 RFAs that came off the books. This leaves them currently at $53 million. Assuming their internal cap stays the same or only slightly increases, that means they have 9 holes to fill. RFAs are Lindholm, Vatanen, Andersen, Rackell, and Pirri. If they match an offersheet of $7.3 mil for Lindholm, they have about $4 million to fill 8 roster holes. Almost impossible. Even if they traded an expensive player, for the sake of argument, Kevin Bieksa, for draft picks, that would mean that they have around $8 million to fill 9 roster spots. They would have to say goodbye to Vatanen, Andersen, Rackell, all of their UFAs, probably Pirri too. 9 roster spots to fill with less than a million per player. That would be a cataclysmic event for a hockey team. And that's with them clearing out salary.

Yeah, Ducks fans are banking on them spending to the cap, but with the team getting bounced in round 1, I wonder if that's likely.

I think smart management would realize that you have to make bad financial decisions sometimes to keep an elite player, and can maybe fix it in coming years. I don't expect Lindholm to be there on July 1st.

But if he is, I'm sending $8Mx5 to his agent without a second thought.

 

[haseoke39]

Lindholm is the last person Anaheim should be moving to deal with their cap...

I bet they find a way to move Perry.

Right. I'd have to think they find a way to keep him, even if it's moving a bigger name player.

 

[stokes84]

Right. I'd have to think they find a way to keep him, even if it's moving a bigger name player.

Their big 3 forwards all have NMCs.

 

[alcolol]

Anaheim is an internal cap team, this year spending about $64 million. They have 4 UFA forwards and 5 RFAs that came off the books. This leaves them currently at $53 million. Assuming their internal cap stays the same or only slightly increases, that means they have 9 holes to fill. RFAs are Lindholm, Vatanen, Andersen, Rackell, and Pirri. If they match an offersheet of $7.3 mil for Lindholm, they have about $4 million to fill 8 roster holes. Almost impossible. Even if they traded an expensive player, for the sake of argument, Kevin Bieksa, for draft picks, that would mean that they have around $8 million to fill 9 roster spots. They would have to say goodbye to Vatanen, Andersen, Rackell, all of their UFAs, probably Pirri too. 9 roster spots to fill with less than a million per player. That would be a cataclysmic event for a hockey team. And that's with them clearing out salary.

Or they trade Cogliano and Stoner, which frees up a combined $6.25 million. The situation is much, much less apocalyptic than you make it out to be.