Speculation: Roster Speculation, 2018 Off-Season

[Jame]

@Jame

You asked for a breakdown on why Sobotka is washed so let's go into the numbers.

Role

In 17-18, Sobotka was a utility forward who served as the energy guy while others drove the play. With Stastny, he was used in two-way roles that shifted slightly towards offense, and was a more generic third line type with Jaskin. While his defensive zone usage is on the heavy side, Sobotka wasn't carrying the weight of a specialist.

Usage
13:55 - 5v5 TOI/Game
1:38 PPTOI/G
1:08 SHTOI/G
46% - ZSR
18.92 - OZS/60
22.06 - DZS/60


Teammates
8th - TOI
1st - CF%
1st - xG%

Competition
7th - TOI
7th - CF%
9th - xG%

Lines
Sobotka-Stastny-Steen
Sobotka-Stastny-Tarasenko
Sobotka-Thompson/Barbashev-Jaskin

Production & Impact

While Sobotka's individual production is uninspiring, you probably aren't targeting him to rack up points. That being said, he was deployed with a suite of effective forwards, so you'd like to see a little more in this department.

The real question with a player like Vlad though, is whether the things that make him a fan favorite actually translate to the ice. Sadly, they do not. Sobotka is a drag in virtually every underlying metric, and things don't get better trying to isolate his impact in one zone or another. There is a consistent trend of the team and linemates generating less and surrendering more with Sobotka on the ice, in both quality and quantity.

While I'll spare you the individual O/D splits, but once you weight for how his linemates defend away from him, Sobotka's drag on xGA notably stands out among regular Blues forwards.

Individual
1.18 - P/60
0.92 - P1/60
0.48 - G/60

On Ice
46.16% - xGF%
49.75% - CF%
47.48% - SCF%
42.86 - GF%

Relative & RelT
-.7.89 - xGFRel
-2.67 - CFRel
-5.54 - SCFRel
-9.68 - GFRel

-7.05 xGRelT
-2.69 CFRelT
-9.26 GFRelT

Verdict

Although Sobotka is clinging to a low-end third line role in terms of individual production, his inability to drive play in any capacity really makes him more of a flexible 10th forward at this stage of the game. He can play up the lineup in various capacities, but it will typically be due to a lack of options or outdated coaching tendencies than ability or impact.

For the Sabres, he only makes sense as a fourth line identity piece to cap off an eventful overhaul of the forward group. Sobotka does nothing to make Eichel, O'Reilly, Mittelstadt, or hypotherical checking center acquisition's lives easier, and should not be viewed as an answer to any of the team's core problems. Hitting people is not a substitute for scoring or preventing goals, especially not for this team.

But... you forgot to account for Mike Yeo

(nice work)

 

[threeVo]

The Sabres need to buyout Beaulieu for next season. The guy is trash and they benefit by the under 25 rule. Schedule is below:

Nathan Beaulieu Buyout Details

Age at Buyout Date	Salary Remaining	Signing Bonus Remaining	Buyout Ratio	Total Buyout Cost	Remaining Contract Years	Buyout Timeframe	Annual Buyout Cost
25 years	$2,500,000	$0	1/3	$2,500,000	1 years	2 years	$416,666

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Season	Salary	Initial Cap Hit	Buyout Cap Hit	Savings	Actual Cost
2018-19	$2,500,000	$2,400,000	$316,666	$2,083,333	$416,666
2019-20	$0	$0	$416,666	-$416,666	$416,666

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The Sabres need to buyout Beaulieu for next season. The guy is trash and they benefit by the under 25 rule. Schedule is below:

I’m not sure you’ll find anyone to argue with on this one

 

[Uberpecker]

Falk is not signed for next year he signed a one year extension for 17-18 and the end of 16-17. Thank you lord, he's done. He's the most atrocious pile of human waste.

Not to be the moralizer here, but seriously?
Guy's a bad hockey player, not a f***ing terrorist.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

The Sabres need to buyout Beaulieu for next season. The guy is trash and they benefit by the under 25 rule. Schedule is below:

Nathan Beaulieu Buyout Details

Age at Buyout Date	Salary Remaining	Signing Bonus Remaining	Buyout Ratio	Total Buyout Cost	Remaining Contract Years	Buyout Timeframe	Annual Buyout Cost
25 years	$2,500,000	$0	1/3	$2,500,000	1 years	2 years	$416,666

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Season	Salary	Initial Cap Hit	Buyout Cap Hit	Savings	Actual Cost
2018-19	$2,500,000	$2,400,000	$316,666	$2,083,333	$416,666
2019-20	$0	$0	$416,666	-$416,666	$416,666

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not going to happen. That would mean Botts was wrong about signing him just one year earlier. Just not going to happen. Waived maybe but buyout dont see it.

 

[ZZamboni]

On Falk. I don’t mind him as a #6/7 D. He brings snarl. Something we lack big time. Let him split mins with a couple others at the bottom of the totem pole next season

 

[threeVo]

Not going to happen. That would mean Botts was wrong about signing him just one year earlier. Just not going to happen. Waived maybe but buyout dont see it.

GMs need to admit failure instead of riding out a bad contract. It would show me he can check his ego and do whats best for the team as a whole. If you cant trade him for something this is an easy way to clear 2M in cap space and a roster spot for a viable 6/7 D.

If the Sabres do win the lottery its going to be:

Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Guhle-Nelson/Antipin*

*If he stays in NA


I would love to bring in a reliable veteran with some PO experience thats on the tail end of his career to be the #7

 

[Icicle]

GMs need to admit failure instead of riding out a bad contract. It would show me he can check his ego and do whats best for the team as a whole. If you cant trade him for something this is an easy way to clear 2M in cap space and a roster spot for a viable 6/7 D.

If the Sabres do win the lottery its going to be:

Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Guhle-Nelson/Antipin*

*If he stays in NA


I would love to bring in a reliable veteran with some PO experience thats on the tail end of his career to be the #7

Dahlin is a lefty

 

[joshjull]

Dahlin is a lefty

I thought he was a lefty that likes to play on the right side.

 

[Icicle]

I thought he was a lefty that likes to play on the right side.

Housley doesn't like that.

 

[joshjull]

Housley doesn't like that.

I was not aware you discussed this with him.

 

[Icicle]

I was not aware you discussed this with him.

Uhh, if it wasn't clear by his usage all year, as well as interviews where he has said as much, then I'm sorry.

 

[joshjull]

Uhh, if it wasn't clear by his usage all year, as well as interviews where he has said as much, then I'm sorry.

He said it’s a preference as it is for most coaches. If we land a franchise dman like Dahlin. I hope he’d be open to letting him play where he feels most comfortable.

 

[Icicle]

He said it’s a preference as it is for most coaches. If we land a franchise dman like Dahlin. I hope he’d be open to letting him play where he feels most comfortable.

If it cuts Risto's minutes in half I'd be ecstatic, though I believe any coach is going to tell an 18yo he knows best and try him on the handed side.

 

[sincerity0]

If it cuts Risto's minutes in half I'd be ecstatic, though I believe any coach is going to tell an 18yo he knows best and try him on the handed side.

So you want Risto to play 13 minutes a game?

 

[Icicle]

So you want Risto to play 13 minutes a game?

Until he breaks all the terrible habits he's formed, unironically yes

 

[valet]

I wonder how much landing Dahlin would change the overall performance of our d

 

[Husko]

If we somehow landed Dahlin I'd put him with Risto from day 1 and hope they can form a Seabrook/Keith type pairing. As for who on which side, I don't really care all that much. Maybe being on his left side with a lefty on the right would be revolutionary for Risto.

 

[Icicle]

If we somehow landed Dahlin I'd put him with Risto from day 1 and hope they can form a Seabrook/Keith type pairing. As for who on which side, I don't really care all that much. Maybe being on his left side with a lefty on the right would be revolutionary for Risto.

Not being able to pass has nothing to do with defensive partners.

 

[Kyndig]

Housley doesn't like that.

He had Antipin playing on the right side pretty much all season. Though I suppose now it would make sense for him to be scratched, wouldn't want to scratch Beaulieu, McCabe, or anyone else for Antipin on the left side.

 

[Icicle]

He had Antipin playing on the right side pretty much all season. Though I suppose now it would make sense for him to be scratched, wouldn't want to scratch Beaulieu, McCabe, or anyone else for Antipin on the left side.

Only when the healthy depth defense was entirely lefties playing left.

 

[Team Cozens]

uhh what, no

Eichel-ROR-Reinhart
Nylander-Mittelstat-Rodrigues

I wonder if Chicago shakes up their roster to get younger.

ROR
3RD OA
Nylander

for

P. Kane
9th OA

Chicago saves $3 million, gets younger and jumps up in the draft.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

I wonder if Chicago shakes up their roster to get younger.

ROR
3RD OA
Nylander

for

P. Kane
9th OA

Chicago saves $3 million, gets younger and jumps up in the draft.

God, that would stink.

 

[Duddy]

I wonder if Chicago shakes up their roster to get younger.

ROR
3RD OA
Nylander

for

P. Kane
9th OA

Chicago saves $3 million, gets younger and jumps up in the draft.

f***ing horrible

 

[couture23]

I wonder if Chicago shakes up their roster to get younger.

ROR
3RD OA
Nylander

for

P. Kane
9th OA

Chicago saves $3 million, gets younger and jumps up in the draft.

Why would we need an about-to-be 30 year old winger?