Roster Speculation 2015-16 Pt. III

[Jame]

Re: Goalies.

I disagree that you can pick "any" goalie out of the pack and be fine. In regular season, that may be the case. Lots of goalies will have good regular seasons based on the teams in front of them. Turek, Cechmanek, Gerber, Neuvirth, Elliot, Tugnutt, Nittymaki, the list goes on. Goalies that do well during a regular season but crash in the playoffs.

Goaltending matters at some level. Is it AS important as it was during the early 90s? No. The ability to compete and handle things under pressure are important. The ability to make that big save, as cliche as it sounds, its important. You put an average goalie behind a good defensive team, the goalie will put up great numbers, but he won't be a great goalie.

I agree with the first bolded... and putting a competent goaltender behind a "contender" team allows that confidence to be built. i.e. Tim Thomas, Dwayne Roloson, etc

You build in front of the net... and then fill the net.

The second bolded is debatable. i.e. Tim Thomas, Dwayne Roloson, etc

 

[TehDoak]

I agree... and putting a competent goaltender behind a "contender" team allows that confidence to be built. i.e. Tim Thomas

You build in front of the net... and then fill the net.

It's a chicken or the egg scenario.

Goalies are a mysterious creature. Look at MAF. Amazing in his first two playoffs (Finals appearance and a finals win)....then his playoff performance took a nose dive. Or Cam Ward even. Wins Conn Smythe in his rookie season in 2006. Other than one run to the ECF (where he imploded), he's been awful.

Goalie play is some weird synergy of team competence and goalie confidence. (and the team's confidence in goaltender competence). There are elite goalies out there. Lundqvist, Rinne, etc. And if you get an elite goalie, lock them up. But, there are very few scenarios where paying a high premium for a goalie is the right move. Maybe in 2002 when Hasek demanded a trade...that is probably the one clear cut "Ok to overpay" scenario. Elite goalie WANTS to be traded (team didn't want to trade him for contract/performance issues) is probably the only scenario. If Rinne wanted out of Nashville to go to a team that is willing to spend on a contender, OK, let's talk. But, it's very rare to see that happen.

 

[Jame]

It's a chicken or the egg scenario.

Goalies are a mysterious creature. Look at MAF. Amazing in his first two playoffs (Finals appearance and a finals win)....then his playoff performance took a nose dive.

minus Scuderi, Gill, Staal, and other components of a very good defensive team

Or Cam Ward even. Wins Conn Smythe in his rookie season in 2006. Other than one run to the ECF (where he imploded), he's been awful.

Is there any team that's had a worse blueline over the years? Maybe Edmonton, that's it.

Goalie play is some weird synergy of team competence and goalie confidence. (and the team's confidence in goaltender competence).

I completely agree.

I'd add that their play is so fickle, that investing long term when one begins emerging is always going to be a mistake. The best case scenario is that they maintain their high level of play (which is always the rarer of outcomes), while you pay the price in other areas (cap space, team depth)

There are elite goalies out there. Lundqvist, Rinne, etc. And if you get an elite goalie, lock them up.

Don't do that. Do the opposite. Ransom them to some foolish old traditional GM. And keep your top 4 of top 2 defensemen in tact. And keep your 1st line talent, playing on a 2nd/3rd line in tact.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

again, that's literally ALL he's done so far... take whatever goalies have walked through the door... seriously, that's the exact definition of taking Halak, flipping Halak for Neuvy, flipping Enroth for Lindback, flipping Neuvy for Johnson.

There are reasons for that..."tanking"... but you are claiming he's going to do something different than what he has actually done... and there is really no basis for those claims

I'm not claiming anything, you're just arguing for arguments sake. I just said I don't think he's going to resign any of the goalies we've had. Since we have no non-tanking history of our GM to base it off of, my guess is as good as any.

If I said I think he's going to try to move up for Boesser, would you say I was trying to alter reality to "fit my argument" that Boesser is worthy of a 21st pick? It's just a hunch, I'm not twisting facts.

 

[tsujimoto74]

minus Scuderi, Gill, Staal, and other components of a very good defensive team



Is there any team that's had a worse blueline over the years? Maybe Edmonton, that's it.



I completely agree.

I'd add that their play is so fickle, that investing long term when one begins emerging is always going to be a mistake. The best case scenario is that they maintain their high level of play (which is always the rarer of outcomes), while you pay the price in other areas (cap space, team depth)



Don't do that. Do the opposite. Ransom them to some foolish old traditional GM. And keep your top 4 of top 2 defensemen in tact. And keep your 1st line talent, playing on a 2nd/3rd line in tact.

Much agreement with the last 2 paragraphs. Goalies are very fickle, up-and-down beasts. Just look at Price. Guy is regarded as one of the best in the league, yet his sv% has fluctuated year-to-year in the range of completely below average to Vezina-worthy. Same for Quick, same for Rinne, etc. The only top goalie who seems to have any season-to-season consistency is Lundqvist. Compare those "elite" goalies to the 2 starting in the SCF right now, neither of whom is regarded with the level of esteem as those guys, yet Bishop's career sv% is only .001 less than Price's and Rinne's (it's higher than Quick's), and his QS% is comparable to them as well. Crawford is .002 off Price and Rinne (also better than Quick), and he's got the highest QS% of the bunch.

You can't win with an incompetent goalie who's actively hurting the team by letting in weak goals, but having a "great" goalie does little more than burn cap space that could be better spent on improving other parts of the team. Good is good enough.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

The cap killed the goalie.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

He's a skilled forward first-most. Just because he has power forward attributes doesn't make him one. For that reason, he looks the best when playing with linemates who are involved in the play. Neither Bozak or Kessel are that kind of forward. Even as a one-timer solution, Bozak is usually pretty damn awful because he's weak when it comes to accessing the middle.

Except he puts up his best possession stats with Kessel, and drops off precipitously when they are separated.

I could certainly seem him fit with Eichel, though. He'd essentially be a force multiplier producing +30 goals, and a package involving Grigorenko would do the job. Add that low first rounder and it even gets closer. The only roadblock are the Sabres who may be interested in trialing him for an additional season.

If JVR is a 30+ goal scorer with Eichel, it means Eichel is a play-controlling offensive force from the jump, and we should be doing more to abet that offensive creativity by giving him less responsibilities in terms of defense and grinding. JVR is not an engaged defensive player or notable establisher of possession, and his use on that line would be essentially window dressing until the offense sets itself up. Like you implied, he's a skill forward first, so his frame is a mirage.

After all, his upside is quite undeniable.

What is his upside? Scoring 30 goals while not bringing anything else to the table? Yeah, I'll pass.

We have enough guys who can light the lamp when the play comes to them. Our offensive ineptitude is the result of a lack of guys who can consistently drive the play to the Moulsons of the world in the first place.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

You can't win with an incompetent goalie who's actively hurting the team by letting in weak goals, but having a "great" goalie does little more than burn cap space that could be better spent on improving other parts of the team. Good is good enough.

Exactly. I have yet to see one person disagree with this general thesis yet arguments continue. Probably because TM put that Samsonov red herring out there. He had me worried that he might use 21 or 31 on him after that interview, but it has to be reverse psychology when you think about it...he's gotta be trying to get Edmonton to take that pick with statements like that, or at least throw a smokescreen up since he obviously has guys in mind he wants to trade up for and they aren't goalies.

 

[Ruckus007]

I'd rather have a good one... and that has zilch to do with the value of the position.

Hmm, I think a see the disconnect, stay tuned...

So you think Sergei Bobrovsky = Crosby and Keith? Because you just equated the Vezina Goalie with the Hart Center and the Norris Defensemen.

No I didn't, you're just being stubborn and doctrinaire. If you rank order a list, there will always be something/someone at the bottom of the list. If you rank on value, the last item will be the least valuable on that list. That does not make it valueless.

But I do agree with your anology in the more obvious way... yes, there are plenty of goalies to choose from... it doesn't matter which one you pick

Wow, going against yourself in the very same post!

I'd rather have a good one... and that has zilch to do with the value of the position.

Of course there's nothing fundamental to disagree with here. If #8 ~ #15, you go with the best fit. If you think #8 >> #15, then you would prefer #8 and if #8 ~ #11, well you go with #11.

...btw, keep with me, I'm almost to responding to your first point...

I'd like the Sabres to build a great franchise around Centers, 2 way forwards and Defensemen, when they do they will have manufactured a very good goalie along the way

Maybe splitting hairs, but I don't think that process will "manufacture" a goaltender.

But I do have a problem with the Sabres paying the cost of a goalie viewed as one of the best in the league. I would be completely against that. If we build a great team, and our goalie puts up Lundqvist/Price/Rinne numbers... There's is NO WAY I would pay the cost to retain his services. Next man up.

...still with me from the top. I'm not using a monetary component when I'm saying "value." I'm just thinking in terms of something like win shares. It's a fine split but I do think there's a tangible difference between goaltenders in terms of their value to winning on a night, and the their value in terms of the overall construction of a roster.

My ideal goaltender when this team is winning is 1.) great, 2.) cheap, 3.) young. Rank ordered. How much a team is willing to pay is related, important, but separate to that.

A semi-related parting thought. On whatever your list of elite goaltenders is, how many are in the organization that drafted them?

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Grigorenko said on his Facebook Page that Zadorov is getting married: https://www.facebook.com/MIkhailGrigorenko?fref=ts

Maybe we'll see a more mature player this upcoming season.

 

[Heraldic]

For those who think that goaltending is a crucial position nowadays, just take a look what is happening in the playoffs. From the four best teams only only one had "elite" goaltending, Rangers. Tampa has won every series so far while having the lesser goaltending compared to their opponents.

You don't build around goaltending. You make sure that goaltending alone doesn't lose you series, but that's about it. There most likely isn't GMs who think that you build around goaltending. I mean outside of Lamoriello, whose best sinlge decision in many years was that he stepped down.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Grigorenko said on his Facebook Page that Zadorov is getting married: https://www.facebook.com/MIkhailGrigorenko?fref=ts

Maybe we'll see a more mature player this upcoming season.

Only if the girl is mature.

 

[Ghills23]

Only if the girl is mature.

and knows how to set an alarm clock.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

For those who think that goaltending is a crucial position nowadays, just take a look what is happening in the playoffs. From the four best teams only only one had "elite" goaltending, Rangers. Tampa has won every series so far while having the lesser goaltending compared to their opponents.

You don't build around goaltending. You make sure that goaltending alone doesn't lose you series, but that's about it. There most likely isn't GMs who think that you build around goaltending. I mean outside of Lamoriello, whose best sinlge decision in many years was that he stepped down.

But they at least have competent/quality goaltending, and that is a requirement I would say.

 

[Jacob582]

Good goaltending is never a problem, until you don't have it.

 

[Heraldic]

But they at least have competent/quality goaltending, and that is a requirement I would say.

Sure, but their defense/center is relatively a lot better, and that's the reason why they're in the finals now.

Or how many thinks that you're able to get into finals with incompetent/crappy defense/centers?

 

[couture23]

Grigorenko said on his Facebook Page that Zadorov is getting married: https://www.facebook.com/MIkhailGrigorenko?fref=ts

Maybe we'll see a more mature player this upcoming season.

Damn Russians get married young. I think Ivan Barbashev was married like last year, even before the draft.

 

[Ruckus007]

For those who think that goaltending is a crucial position nowadays, just take a look what is happening in the playoffs. From the four best teams only only one had "elite" goaltending, Rangers. Tampa has won every series so far while having the lesser goaltending compared to their opponents.

You don't build around goaltending. You make sure that goaltending alone doesn't lose you series, but that's about it. There most likely isn't GMs who think that you build around goaltending. I mean outside of Lamoriello, whose best sinlge decision in many years was that he stepped down.

This year's finals don't help the "goalies are important" argument, no doubt. However, if you look back at the last four or five years and look at which goaltenders are in the conference finals, then you paint a somewhat different picture.



And how many people are suggesting building around a goaltender? That's a strawman. This conversation is about the importance of the position, IMO.

 

[old kummelweck]

Grigorenko said on his Facebook Page that Zadorov is getting married: https://www.facebook.com/MIkhailGrigorenko?fref=ts

Maybe we'll see a more mature player this upcoming season.

Wow. That's young.

edit - LOL shorts and loafers (do the kids still call them that?).

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Sure, but their defense/center is relatively a lot better, and that's the reason why they're in the finals now.

Or how many thinks that you're able to get into finals with incompetent/crappy defense/centers?

If you're going to take the argument that far, you're not normally going to get to the finals with an incompetent goaltender either.

Tampa and Chicago are in the finals because they have excellent teams, and that includes the goaltender.

Goaltending might not be as vital as before, but don't completely discard its importance.

 

[Matt Ress]

The big, athletic goalie is going to have a high floor, inevitably. They don't necessarily have to be Hasek to win games because you're relying on the team in front of them to win games. Playing solid defensively in front of him and popping in a few goals of your own, will win you games and make said goalie look good as long as he's in position and covering most of the net. Even the Sabres were able to do this last year (not the goal scoring) which made their goalies look good. It's literally a big, quick guy that doesn't have his head up his ads.

 

[Moskau]

Grigorenko said on his Facebook Page that Zadorov is getting married: https://www.facebook.com/MIkhailGrigorenko?fref=ts

Maybe we'll see a more mature player this upcoming season.

Getting married at 19 is the definition of immature in my book.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[TehDoak]

Welp that about covers alot

Zadorov is pencilled in for a spot (unless he shows up fat again)
Reinhart likely to start in the NHL
Hodgson doing alot of offseason work to stay in Buffalo
Grigerenko might be odd man out.

 

[sabrebuild]

If you're going to take the argument that far, you're not normally going to get to the finals with an incompetent goaltender either.

Tampa and Chicago are in the finals because they have excellent teams, and that includes the goaltender.

Goaltending might not be as vital as before, but don't completely discard its importance.

Neither team has anything remotely close to excellent goaltending.