My next blog post - Taking a deeper dive on a Nelson trade. My next one will be on Palmieri - enjoy the read...
Top 6 Nelson Landing Spots: Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Winnipeg, and Utah
Brock Nelson could be the crown jewel of the 2025 NHL trade deadline. Among the contenders for his services, Dallas, Minnesota, Carolina, and Colorado all stand out as teams in need of a strong second-line center—and most could potentially re-sign him. While Utah and Winnipeg are longer shots (despite Nelson’s proximity to the Manitoba border growing up), they remain in the conversation due to their need for a dynamic 2C.
DALLAS
Starting with Dallas, a package of their 2025 first-round pick and top prospect Mavrik Bourque (C/RW) could be a great package for the Islanders in a deal for Nelson. Though steep for a rental, the Stars are uniquely positioned to make this deal. With Seguin sidelined until the playoffs, Dallas can leverage LTIR to add a high-impact player like Nelson without immediate cap concerns. Beyond this season, the Stars are in an enviable position to re-sign Nelson due to upcoming cap flexibility and the state tax incentive that often appeals to free agents. Their roster is built to contend now and in the future, with major contracts—such as Benn, Duchene, and Dadonov—set to come off the books. Adding Nelson would allow Wyatt Johnston to stay at RW1, maintaining the balance and strength of their forward group.
If Bourque and a first-round pick are too much for Dallas, a reasonable alternative might include their 2025 first-round pick paired with Emil Hemming (RW) or a 2026 second-rounder. However, given Nelson’s status as a consistent scorer and strong playoff performer, the Islanders should aim for a return centred around a first-round pick in the 20-26 range and a high-quality prospect.
MINNESOTA
Since Brock Nelson hails from Minnesota, the Wild are often seen as a logical landing spot. In addition to that, there is a longstanding relationship between Lou Lamoriello and Bill Guerin, and it’s easy to envision both sides finding common ground. However, Minnesota’s limited draft capital complicates a potential deal. The Wild lack a 2025 first-round pick, and their 2026 first is tied up in a conditional trade. While their 2025 pick will unlikely fall in the top five, the conditions make parting with their 2026 first difficult. This means the Islanders would need to focus on a package centred around one of the Wild’s top prospects.
That said, Minnesota’s most coveted prospects—goaltender Jesper Wallstedt, defensemen David Jiricek and Zeev Buium, and forward Daniel Yurov—are likely untouchable in a rental scenario, even with a strong chance to re-sign Nelson in the offseason. This leaves a second tier of prospects that includes Liam Öhgren (LW/RW), Riley Heidt (C/LW), and Charlie Stramel (C).
Among these, Öhgren seems the most logical trade chip. The former first-round pick has already seen NHL action, appearing in eight games this season, though he’s yet to register a point. On an entry-level contract with two seasons remaining before becoming an RFA, he offers cost-controlled upside. Heidt, while impressive in the WHL, raises questions about his ability to transition to pro hockey and may not stick as a center. Stramel, the big-bodied pivot, has struggled in college but is finally showing signs of development at Michigan State, surpassing his point totals from the previous two seasons in just 16 games this year.
Cap considerations further complicate a deal. The Wild are pressed against the salary cap and would need to move out a contract to accommodate Nelson’s $3 million AAV at 50% retention. A package of Öhgren and a 2026 second-round pick feels underwhelming from an Islanders perspective, especially if Öhgren struggles to secure a regular NHL role. Swapping the second-rounder for Stramel might strengthen the return, but even then, it’s debatable whether Minnesota can outbid other suitors in this deadline race.
CAROLINA
A Brock Nelson acquisition by Carolina would bring a significant boost to their forward group, allowing the Hurricanes to shift Jesperi Kotkaniemi to the wing or down to the fourth line. Adding Nelson would instantly make Carolina’s forward corps one of the most formidable and balanced in the league.
The question is whether a package of Carolina’s 2025 first-round pick (likely in the 26-32 range) and prospect Bradley Nadeau (F) is enough to seal the deal. Assuming Scott Morrow (RD) remains untouchable, the Islanders might push for an additional piece. Given that the deal is with a division rival, the 2025 first-rounder could end up being the 32nd overall pick, which may not be enticing enough for Lou Lamoriello.
Carolina does have intriguing options to sweeten the pot, such as 21-year-old right winger Jackson Blake— son of former Islander Jason Blake —who at 21 years old has played effectively in a bottom-six role this season. On a .900K contract with one year remaining, Blake offers cost-controlled value that could subsidize higher cap hits elsewhere. However, to make the deal more palatable for Carolina, the Islanders might need to include a player like William Dufour (RW) as part of the trade.
For clarity, the proposed deal would look like this: Brock Nelson (C) and William Dufour (RW) to Carolina in exchange for a 2025 first-round pick, Bradley Nadeau (F), and Jackson Blake (RW). While this package bolsters the Islanders’ future depth, it raises the question of whether dealing Nelson to a division rival is worth the risk, especially if Carolina’s strengthened lineup makes them even tougher to compete against.
COLORADO
Colorado will undoubtedly be in the market for a center like Brock Nelson as they look to address injuries and solidify their top six. Adding Nelson would allow the Avalanche to move Casey Mittelstadt to the left wing, giving their forward group a much-needed boost. However, Colorado lacks a 2025 first-round pick, which complicates their ability to compete with other teams in the bidding.
The Avalanche’s best offer would likely center around their top prospect, Calum Ritchie (C), who has shone as Team Canada’s top center at this year’s World Juniors. How does this a Ritchie + 2nd round pick stack up against other suitors like Dallas, Minnesota, or Carolina? It largely depends on which prospect the Islanders value most: Ritchie, Liam Öhgren, Maveric Bourque, or Bradley Nadeau. Alternatively, the question could come down to whether the Islanders prioritize a guaranteed prospect over the uncertainty of a first-round pick, even if that pick is at the higher end of the draft.
WINNIPEG
Winnipeg currently holds the best record in the league, making them a strong contender for Brock Nelson’s services. With their 2025 first-round pick and prospects like Brad Lambert (C), Brayden Yager (C), and Colby Barlow (LW), the Jets have the assets to make a competitive offer. However, despite Nelson growing up just a few miles from the Manitoba border, re-signing him would be a significant challenge for the Jets, especially considering the high taxes in Canada and the weakened Canadian dollar. These factors make Winnipeg less appealing for a player like Nelson, who might prefer a situation where his salary goes further, such as in Dallas or Carolina.
While the Islanders would be interested in adding a top prospect like Lambert or Yager, Winnipeg is unlikely to part with either for a rental, given the uncertainty surrounding their ability to retain Nelson. Instead, a more realistic package could involve Colby Barlow, who, despite not making Team Canada’s U20 WJC roster, remains an intriguing power forward prospect. A 2025 1st round pick and Colby Barlow could be a more feasible option for Winnipeg, allowing them to hold onto their higher-tier assets while still offering a package that has future upside.
Given their strong season and history of aggressiveness at the trade deadline, the Jets may decide to make a bold move for Nelson. However, they must weigh the long-term challenges of acquiring a rental they might not be able to keep. Then again, perhaps Nelson is the piece that finally helps bring the first Stanley Cup championship back to Canada since 1993—and if so, it might all be worth it.
UTAH
As for a major dark horse in this race, the Utah hockey club could emerge as a surprise contender for Nelson. In their inaugural season, Utah has shown promise, and their ownership group is eager to make a statement. With plenty of cap space, a deep prospect pipeline, and an array of draft picks, Utah has the flexibility to construct a strong offer. A package featuring Utah’s 2025 first-round pick (likely in the 16-20 range) and power forward prospect Cole Beaudoin would be difficult to beat unless a rival team significantly ups their bid.
While it might seem a year too early for Utah to push its chips in, a continued strong performance heading into the deadline could change that approach. If their goal is to energize their fanbase and signal their arrival as a serious contender, a bold move like acquiring Nelson could align perfectly with their ambitions.
