Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[MikeyMike01]

Where do you think NHL players come from? A stork?

Every drafted player ever was a "future" at one time and that represents the vast majority of NHL players. Yes, they have to then "make it" and many don't, but you still have to have them and then hopefully develop them. But even beyond that, futures, if they make it, become your cost controlled players, an absolute must in a hard cap league. If you're going to be successful, you have to have at least a few highly productive young players on ELCs.

No shit.

You have Barzal, Horvat, Romanov, Dobson, Sorokin, Pelech, and Pulock all in their mid-late twenties.

A draft pick that won’t contribute for 4 years is completely useless.

 

[islesfan3913]

If you don't think there's ways to maneuver here, your thinking is limited.

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you about there being room to maneuver, but I think the hang up some are having with that viewpoint is that you and some others aren’t really saying what exactly that maneuvering would look like. Our lineup next season looks as follows:

Lee-Horvat-Barzal
X-Nelson-Palmieri
X-Pageau-Engvall
X-Cizikas-Holmstrom

Pelech-Pulock
Romanov-Dobson
X-Mayfield

Sorokin
Varlamov

That roster leaves us with a little over $5 million to work with (assuming a $87.5 million cap which is what’s been reported) and with the cap increasing, salaries will increase as well. I don’t see how we fill four spots that will improve the team with that limited amount of cap space.

 

[CupHolders]

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you about there being room to maneuver, but I think the hang up some are having with that viewpoint is that you and some others aren’t really saying what exactly that maneuvering would look like. Our lineup next season looks as follows:

Lee-Horvat-Barzal
X-Nelson-Palmieri
X-Pageau-Engvall
X-Cizikas-Holmstrom

Pelech-Pulock
Romanov-Dobson
X-Mayfield

Sorokin
Varlamov

That roster leaves us with a little over $5 million to work with (assuming a $87.5 million cap which is what’s been reported) and with the cap increasing, salaries will increase as well. I don’t see how we fill four spots that will improve the team with that limited amount of cap space.

Majority of the NHL is at the CAP and/or relying on LTIR. While some would see that as a negative, it has actually had the effect of normalizing the exchange of "toxic" salary. See last year's deadline as an example. By all past practice, there should NOT have been record amount of movement as there were too many teams in poor cap position. But in order for teams to do business they have recognized that they must accept salary even with term going back the other way.

So while I don't have any specific suggestions on what the Isles should or will do. I don't think it's so far-fetched that some of the players you have mentioned CAN be moved. Even with movement clauses. Now, will Lou WANT to move these players? That's a whole other issue.

 

[islesfan3913]

Majority of the NHL is at the CAP and/or relying on LTIR. While some would see that as a negative, it has actually had the effect of normalizing the exchange of "toxic" salary. See last year's deadline as an example. By all past practice, there should NOT have been record amount of movement as there were too many teams in poor cap position. But in order for teams to do business they have recognized that they must accept salary even with term going back the other way.

So while I don't have any specific suggestions on what the Isles should or will do. I don't think it's so far-fetched that some of the players you have mentioned CAN be moved. Even with movement clauses. Now, will Lou WANT to move these players? That's a whole other issue.

I definitely think there’s players to be moved, but then the issue becomes filling the holes that were just created by trading players away. To me, the three realistic options to trade away would be Lee, Palmieri, and Pageau. None of those guys are going to get great returns even if we eat salary, so that won’t really be a way to improve the roster. Even if we did manage to move all three and get rid of all of their contracts, we would then need to fill seven spots (and keep in mind that the end goal is to make the team better, not just have it be the same). I fail to see anyone on the free agent market who we could sign for $5-$7 million who would make us a better team than we are right now. With the cap going up, players in that price range are going to be average 2nd liners/high end third liners.

If the players we decide to move are guys like Nelson and Pulock, then I fail to see a reason to not just sell the three previous guys I mentioned along with Nelson and Pulock and maybe even entertain a Barzal trade before his M-NTC kicks in before next season. There’s issues with both possible paths forward that contradict the goal of getting this team to compete within the next season or two and if we go with the third option of selling everything off, then we have to admit we’re looking at a rebuild.

 

[Torrey Redux]

No shit.

You have Barzal, Horvat, Romanov, Dobson, Sorokin, Pelech, and Pulock all in their mid-late twenties.

A draft pick that won’t contribute for 4 years is completely useless.

And what have they accomplished to date? How are you going to surround that core that you think is so special with the other players needed to get to the next level?

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

No shit.

You have Barzal, Horvat, Romanov, Dobson, Sorokin, Pelech, and Pulock all in their mid-late twenties.

A draft pick that won’t contribute for 4 years is completely useless.

Pelech and Pulock are 29 years old.
Horvat and Sorokin are 28 years old.

They're still technically in their 20s, but rapidly reaching the wrong side of 30.

Only Barzal, Romanov and Dobson have years remaining in their 20s.

 

[Torrey Redux]

Define success bc since the Covid hard cap came along, what team won the Cup with highly productive young players on ELCs? (It’s zero…).

Uh, no, it's not zero, (Anthony Cirelli- 2020 Cup Champ- ELC - 44 pts - great two way player). I'm sure there are others but I'm not going research it or debate with someone who just for the sake of arguing is going to deny the value of ELCs. ELCs are how you give potential an opportunity. You couldn't do it otherwise.

 

[WangMustGo]

Just yell rebuild every year until the rebuild works, seems to be in line with the common theme.

The trade deadline is not really the time to remake your team, however, this team needs to start making some personnel changes.

I would make a statement trade now. Trade Nelson bc he shouldn’t be resigned. Don’t wait for the draft or next deadline that’s just dumb. A number of teams will be clamoring for him and can figure out their cap situation in the summer.

I doubt anyone wants JGP with that extra year, but I would find a way to get Giroux, yes, he’s older, but he’s gonna be one motivated son of gun bc his chances of winning in OTT are toast.

Flip Clutter, Martin can stay. Wally can be packaged out, but should stay if you get a Giroux.

Walk from Aho or flip him at the deadline, Riley makes him redundant.

I’ve said long ago to move on from Pulock bc paying him that much for zero offense is not worth the cost.

If Petterssen negotiations go south, give them Barzal, laugh, and say thank you. We’ll pay Petterssen.

On Lee, adjust the way he is used, and you’ll get value out of him. Never gonna get $7M worth of value. That was apparent at the time of signing.

I agree with most of what you are saying. This team doesn’t need a rebuild, but it needs tinkering. I would absolutely trade Nelson, good player, and would hurt to lose, but his value will never be higher, and I don’t think he should get another long term contract here.

Pageau is a decent player, id probably hold onto him until at least next deadline if Nelson is moved.

Giroux is a good player, but I’d pass. He’s too old. Wait until the offseason and see what players become available. Maybe take Nelson’s return + to get a younger top 6 forward.

I would rather keep Pulock and move Pelech. Pelech is too injury prone. Pulock being a RD would be harder to replace imo.

Aho and all other UFAs to be can go. Give me the lottery tickets in late draft picks over resigning any of those old ufas.

 

[Taswell]

Wahlstrom, Clutterbuck, Aho, and if you can swing it (cap, NTC), Pageau should all be gone by this deadline.

Send Clutter to a contender, he's been a good soldier, give him a chance at a cup run.

 

[Throttle]

Uh, no, it's not zero, (Anthony Cirelli- 2020 Cup Champ- ELC - 44 pts - great two way player). I'm sure there are others but I'm not going research it or debate with someone who just for the sake of arguing is going to deny the value of ELCs. ELCs are how you give potential an opportunity. You couldn't do it otherwise.

That’s one single player on a stacked team that won bc it was a stacked team, not the ELCs carrying a team.

 

[Torrey Redux]

That’s one single player on a stacked team that won bc it was a stacked team, not the ELCs carrying a team.

Who said anything about ELCs carrying the team? You're the worst kind of poster, all you do is make shit up to stir the pot.

 

[Throttle]

Who said anything about ELCs carrying the team? You're the worst kind of poster, all you do is make shit up to stir the pot.

Or maybe you made an overly broad statement that you can’t support?

 

[crashthenet]

The reason Tatar bounces around is because he goes on lengthy goal less droughts
He's also a 3rd liner
Engvall, for about the 10th time, is on the 2nd line because neither Nelson nor Palmieri are feeders and someone has to do it

Tatar would be an upgrade on the 3rd line. He had an excellent year last year. He also is a good for 20 goals a season on a fairly consistent basis.

 

[beach]

People are dumping on Engvall, and he certainly deserves it for the screw up that other game. However, I have a feeling that he fits in better with what Roy wants to do than a lot of other guys on the team. We'll see though, I guess.

Engvall needs to recognize that bodily contact is a part of hockey.

 

[Duanesutter12]

I definitely think there’s players to be moved, but then the issue becomes filling the holes that were just created by trading players away. To me, the three realistic options to trade away would be Lee, Palmieri, and Pageau. None of those guys are going to get great returns even if we eat salary, so that won’t really be a way to improve the roster. Even if we did manage to move all three and get rid of all of their contracts, we would then need to fill seven spots (and keep in mind that the end goal is to make the team better, not just have it be the same). I fail to see anyone on the free agent market who we could sign for $5-$7 million who would make us a better team than we are right now. With the cap going up, players in that price range are going to be average 2nd liners/high end third liners.

If the players we decide to move are guys like Nelson and Pulock, then I fail to see a reason to not just sell the three previous guys I mentioned along with Nelson and Pulock and maybe even entertain a Barzal trade before his M-NTC kicks in before next season. There’s issues with both possible paths forward that contradict the goal of getting this team to compete within the next season or two and if we go with the third option of selling everything off, then we have to admit we’re looking at a rebuild.

I wouldn't include Lee in the most tradeable category. While he can still provide another team something his limitations are too big a burden to take on with that contract. Unfortunately Nelson is the other one that would be most attractive to other teams. Palmieri, Pageau and Nelson are the only realistic pieces I see that could be moved. I don't think they're going to cash out but if they do it would be from those three pieces.

 

[BelovedIsles]

So who is in favor of a rebuild, and who is in favor of a retool/restructure? Let's have a dichotomous breakdown. Count me in the latter faction.

 

[SI]

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you about there being room to maneuver, but I think the hang up some are having with that viewpoint is that you and some others aren’t really saying what exactly that maneuvering would look like. Our lineup next season looks as follows:

Lee-Horvat-Barzal
X-Nelson-Palmieri
X-Pageau-Engvall
X-Cizikas-Holmstrom

Pelech-Pulock
Romanov-Dobson
X-Mayfield

Sorokin
Varlamov

That roster leaves us with a little over $5 million to work with (assuming a $87.5 million cap which is what’s been reported) and with the cap increasing, salaries will increase as well. I don’t see how we fill four spots that will improve the team with that limited amount of cap space.

I legit broke it down a couple of pages back, but here it goes - these are not all moves I am suggesting but some possible moves that they COULD make to shake things up

• Palmieri TRADE - They can trade Palmieri in a cap dump situation - Beauvillier with a 4.15 cap hit was traded for a 5th-round pick. Palmieri and his 5m (expiring contract) can easily be moved. It won't be a great return, but it will give them an extra 5m to work with.
• Trade 2024 1st Round Pick - They can move 2024 1st Round Pick for a player who is an RFA - this would be a similar deal that Lou made for Romanov. Examples, Mittelstadt, Kent Johnson, Kiril Marchenko, Pinto. They could trade the 1st for a veteran top 6 - i.e. Schmaltz, Bjorkstrand, McCann.
• Trade Nelson - I think hinted at something like this last year, but the more I think about it - the less I like it, but the Isles could get a futures package or make a trade for a young D man like Byram or a hockey trade for someone like Buchnevich. I'd rather keep Nelson to start the season and if things go south - you sell at TDL.
• GO for a big fish in free agency - with money saved on Palmieri - maybe Lou tosses some $ at someone like Guentzel
• Moving Anders Lee - not a fan of buyouts, but Lou could buy him out - we saw the Jets do this to their captain, Wheeler last summer. I would hate to see it, but something Lou could do - this would give Lou another 5m to spend, but Isles get screwed the following year with 4.5 cap hit. They could also dangle Lee in a trade with 50% retained... frees up 3.5 this year and next.
• Low Bargain Sign for 6th D - could be lots of bargains for veteran D, who could be had for cheap.
• Low Bargain Sign for top 9 F - There will be many free agents F's with poor seasons that may be had for cheap - this is someone like Drouin, JVR last offseason, who signed a 1m contract last season and is on pace for 50+ points. A reclamation project if you will - DeBrusk, Beauvillier, Duclair, Hoffman, Tatar, Zucker, etc.
• MEGA deal - With Jarmo out as GM - Columbus may try to move Gaudreau and Laine if they can. I see a scenario - albeit crazy - Where Lou trades Engvall and Lee or Palmieri + 2024 1st for Gaudreau. Unlikely, but I had to throw that one in there.

2024-25 Roster -
Lee - Horvat - Barzal
Engvall - Nelson - Palmieri
Holmstrom (RFA) - Pageau - Wahlstrom (RFA)
????? - Cizikas - Fasching
extra F - Gauthier, ????

Pelech-Pulock
Romanov-Dobson
Bolduc -Mayfield
??????

Sorokin
Varlamov

 

[Throttle]

That’s a lot of work to get nowhere. Johnny Trademark avoided a high profile market, he ain’t leaving Columbus. He wanted to get paid and go home at night without anyone talking about him. Laine is mental and lazy. LMAO for $8.7M for Laine, way to go kukuluka.

 

[Potvottier]

It's within the realm of possibility for a team to be successful, while it's roster change is mostly due to attrition. Tampa Bay and Colorado are examples.

That said, I prefer a retool, whatever the definition is. I am all for Engvall and Mayfield given away for future considerations. Trade Pulock and Wahlstrom for Vatrano.

2024

Vatrano(5) - Horvat(8.5) - Barzal(9)
Lee(7) - Nelson(5) - Palmieri(5)
Sprong(3) - Pageau(5) - Holmstrom(1)
Martinook(2) - Zeeker(2.5) - Maclean(1)
Fasching(1) - Maggio/Liukas/Dufour(1)

Romanov(2.5) - Dobson(4)
Pelech(6) - Edmundson(3)
Reilly(1) - Gudas(3)
Bolduc(1)

Sorokin - Varly(11 both)

87 mil

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Tatar would be an upgrade on the 3rd line. He had an excellent year last year. He also is a good for 20 goals a season on a fairly consistent basis.

Tatar would have done nothing.

 

[IslesNorway]

So who is in favor of a rebuild, and who is in favor of a retool/restructure? Let's have a dichotomous breakdown. Count me in the latter faction.

A retool is 100% necessary but as long as Lou is in charge nothing is gonna happen. I bet he is more likely to extend Mike Reilly for 4 years than breaking anything down. Also, look for him to extend Nelson for six years in the summer. He will not be moved.

As I (and others) have pointed out many times, the Islanders have a shitload of players who are virtually impossible to move for value. You never see players with several years remaining and NTCs/NMC moved, so it's not gonna happen here either. Ideally $25-20 million should be moved but it won't happen as things stand. No team is going to move prospects, picks or young players for any of our contracts, so there will be similar contracts coming back. Also those players will mostly have NTCs and won't waive to come here for a retool.

If anything, they should sell off all UFAs and get some low picks. Sometimes you get lucky. In the summer look to deal Palmieri, and then try to make big trade involving dealing Pulock or Pelech for some offensive help. It's close to impossible, but maybe it can be done.

But the biggest change this team can make is getting rid of Lou. It's the only right thing to do.

 

[Isles72]

I cant see Lou trading any of the guys he's given contracts to unless the player asks for a trade .

I can understand wanting to trade Nelson before Lou gives him an extension thats too long but losing Brock leaves a pretty big hole in the lineup .

 

[MYIslanders]

I cant see Lou trading any of the guys he's given contracts to unless the player asks for a trade .

I can understand wanting to trade Nelson before Lou gives him an extension thats too long but losing Brock leaves a pretty big hole in the lineup .

I love Nelson but we need a pretty big hole in the lineup. We need multiple big holes in the lineup. Look at Pittsburgh in years past. Getting Lemieux and Jagr, Crosby and Malkin didn’t come from being middle of the pack teams and getting middle of the pack draft picks every year. Chicago has Bedard and will likely get the first pick again…this thing needs to be torn down to the studs and built back slowly.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Chicago has Bedard and will likely get the first pick again…this thing needs to be torn down to the studs and built back slowly.

The Islanders got Tavares and never rose above the mediocrity you describe.

 

[crashthenet]

Tatar would have done nothing.

Interesting that you would think an actual NHL player wouldn't have improved this team in lieu of the Faschings and Gauthiers of the world. Team went about 50 games without a goal from the second PP unit. You run that out and every PP is less than two minutes. Beyond that our bottom six has been atrocious offensively. Absent Holmstrom's 5 shorties, we would have a player hit double digits this year.