Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Kevin27NYI]

Considering Lou's history with pending UFAs I'd be shocked if he didn't re-sign Engvall. Bailey will have to be moved or Clutterbuck put on LTIR/retirement.

Maybe, depends on clutter because that’s the money right there.

Agreed that Parise can stay if he signs another league min deal. Agree that Fasching should be signing a league min 2-way contract. He's a cool story but has very little impact on a game.

With this lineup we tread water again next season.

I disagree, we’d have Horvat full year. Pretty solid team actually

 

[MJF]

Maybe, depends on clutter because that’s the money right there.

I disagree, we’d have Horvat full year. Pretty solid team actually

The bottom of the lineup does not give us offense. Same problem as now, just another older and still unskilled. Unless JG Pageau stops underproducing and finds another 10 goals in his stick.

Horvat will have to score 40-45 goals with the team around him to make up for the lack of offense around him and have the Isles in the 100 point range. I think Horvat is good but I’m not sure if he’s 45 goals good.

 

[doublechili]

I want whatever makes the core of this team younger and more talented - To compete with those other teams at the top of the NHL that are more talented.

Given that Lou has traded away lots of picks for average vets (minus Horvat) and seemingly has no interest in a retool much less a rebuild, the farm system is barren, and thus to me it looks like a rebuild will be necessary in the coming years. If Lou changes his philosophy and can split the atom by taking the limited amount of tradable contracts we have an ship them off for talented guys in the mid/young 20's then god bless, but I think we're fooling ourselves to think that will be possible.

But at some point a hard choice is going to have to be made. Like this summer might be a smart idea to trade Nelson to a center-needy team with a good D/W prospect on the cusp of being in the NHL. Then make Horvat Nelson's replacement and try to sign a good winger with the money you saved from Nelson's deal. That's the way you retool on the fly - By getting younger.

Would Lou do something like that? I haven't seen any evidence he will trade a vet on this team unless the cap forces him to...And Nelson doesn't *need* to be traded. Instead what's more likely is Lou will trade picks for Arizona to take Bailey off our cap thus reducing the limited assets we have to improve the team even further.

At this point, Nelson at $6M as a very good 2C is a really good value contract. And I don't see Nelson's game degrading drastically as he gets into his mid-30s (his game isn't based on skating and he's not getting terribly banged up out there). So if you trade him and then sign a UFA winger, the team will lose out by either paying more than $6M or filling the roster slot with an inferior player. Yeah you'll get some picks, but you could get those for him the following summer or even the next TDL. Or again, maybe just keep Nelson and re-sign him for a couple more years if he can fill the 3C slot (and trade JGP instead).

BTW, you said Lou "traded away lot of picks for average vets". But the picks he traded away were two in the late 20s and then a #13 in a draft that seemed very average. At those picks teams generally get "average" NHLers (or non-NHLers!). Again, I was thinking you were part of the group that advocated a tear down to get into the top 5 of drafts for a couple of years? That's where the odds of getting stars really goes up.

 

[MJF]

At this point, Nelson at $6M as a very good 2C is a really good value contract. And I don't see Nelson's game degrading drastically as he gets into his mid-30s (his game isn't based on skating and he's not getting terribly banged up out there). So if you trade him and then sign a UFA winger, the team will lose out by either paying more than $6M or filling the roster slot with an inferior player. Yeah you'll get some picks, but you could get those for him the following summer or even the next TDL. Or again, maybe just keep Nelson and re-sign him for a couple more years if he can fill the 3C slot (and trade JGP instead).

David Poile called where the Nasvhille Predators are in the standings the mushy middle. That’s where the Islanders are as well. It’s not a good place to be and if we continue as is, by not trying to acquire picks or higher end talent for aging vets who can still be traded something without throwing in a sweetener, that’s where we’ll stay.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

 

[NC 1972]

Maybe, depends on clutter because that’s the money right there.

I disagree, we’d have Horvat full year. Pretty solid team actually

Still a slow team, lost Beau and Wally will be recovering from knee surgery and who knows about Barzal's knee. its import for speed alone to bring back the kid we just got from the Leaf's.

 

[doublechili]

David Poile called where the Nasvhille Predators are in the standings the mushy middle. That’s where the Islanders are as well. It’s not a good place to be and if we continue as is, by not trying to acquire picks or higher end talent for aging vets who can still be traded something without throwing in a sweetener, that’s where we’ll stay.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

I just don't get the "trade Nelson" thing. If they do that, then they may as well start selling everything that's not tied down, including Sorokin who probably wouldn't want to stay through a rebuild.

If they NEED to do something, I'd trade JGP instead of Nelson. Yeah, the return would be less, but it wouldn't be creating an unfillable hole. Go with Barzal, Horvat and Nelson down the middle and try to wear teams down with 3 good lines. Re-sign Engvall if he shows he's worth it (speed on the wing is a real need). If Bailey and or Clutter can be made to go, they'd suddenly have a good amount of space.

 

[MJF]

I just don't get the "trade Nelson" thing. If they do that, then they may as well start selling everything that's not tied down, including Sorokin who probably wouldn't want to stay through a rebuild.

If they NEED to do something, I'd trade JGP instead of Nelson. Yeah, the return would be less, but it wouldn't be creating an unfillable hole. Go with Barzal, Horvat and Nelson down the middle and try to wear teams down with 3 good lines. Re-sign Engvall if he shows he's worth it (speed on the wing is a real need). If Bailey and or Clutter can be made to go, they'd suddenly have a good amount of space.

Trading Nelson started long before we got Bo Horvat. It was when many people here believed he would get a king’s ransom at the 2022 TDL when we should have been sellers and started rebuilding instead of going the route we’re on now. At that point nobody believed any skilled UFA would sign here and guys like Nelson would age out before the team is competitive again. The thought of extending a 34 year old Nelson to a UFA contract does not appeal to me now and it didn’t then. When Lou traded for Horvat that committed us to the mushy middle because it keeps us from doing anything more than changing pieces on the fly instead of rebuilding the right way.

The Islanders must get faster and more skilled to be near the top of our division. The place we are right now does not appeal to me and we’re poised to run much of the same team back out there yet again next year. A year older, a year slower, and still as unskilled.

If Bailey and if Clutter. If Cizikas and if Martin. If Pageau and if Wahlstrom. That’s a lot of unproductive and underproducing from our forwards.

 

[PK Cronin]

 

[doublechili]

Trading Nelson started long before we got Bo Horvat. It was when many people here believed he would get a king’s ransom at the 2022 TDL when we should have been sellers and started rebuilding instead of going the route we’re on now. At that point nobody believed any skilled UFA would sign here and guys like Nelson would age out before the team is competitive again. The thought of extending a 34 year old Nelson to a UFA contract does not appeal to me now and it didn’t then. When Lou traded for Horvat that committed us to the mushy middle because it keeps us from doing anything more than changing pieces on the fly instead of rebuilding the right way.

The Islanders must get faster and more skilled to be near the top of our division. The place we are right now does not appeal to me and we’re poised to run much of the same team back out there yet again next year. A year older, a year slower, and still as unskilled.

If Bailey and if Clutter. If Cizikas and if Martin. If Pageau and if Wahlstrom. That’s a lot of unproductive and underproducing from our forwards.

Then you trade everyone of value over say 24, including Sorokin. And since the Isles won't be signing UFAs at discounts or getting players cheap via "forced" trades or signings, you can look at contending in maybe 7 or 8 years. But we can occupy ourselves in the meantime reading draft previews and imagining future glory based on our high organizational prospect rankings.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Live look at Lou:

 

[13th Floor]

Live look at Lou:

Remember when guys coming back from injuries were spun as deadline pick ups?

 

[SI]

What's doing SI!!

Status quo over here. No complaints. What's your prognosis entering the week? How we looking?

This 3 game stretch is so crucial.
Home against Buff, @ Pens, Home against Caps.
I'll take wins against Buffalo and Caps and be happy with a loser point against the Pens.
If they take all 3- it positions to take away some of those games at hand other teams have.

Then on a west coast trip - Kings, Ducks, and Sharks - going 2 and 1 during that trip is crucial.

If Isles want that 7th seed they made need to have 94 -95 points. For that 8th spot, 92-94 should get it done.

With JGP back, they need to shut it down against the Sabres - their D and G are not very good, so they will get their chances - it is crucial they stay out of the box and play a strong defensive game.

 

[SI]

The reality is you have to keep Wahlstrom and hope he figures it out, and yes re-sign Parise (must) and get Fasching back on the cheap if possible.

With our cap situation, that plan is a near MUST. regardless of what we can/cant do with Bailey or if we miraculously find some loose change in the sofas to get a true Top 6 forward.

Truth is we have no "ideal" 6th guy to join Barzal/Horvat/Lee/Nelson and Palmieri in the top six as everyone here would prefer to have Parise on the 3rd line and keep Pageau there as well. A full season of Matty/Horvat and how good we "should be" in the middle and on face offs with a full season of Bo, Brock, JGP and Casey is one of the few exciting things to look forward to next season.

The real hope we should all embrace is that Ollie gets his act together, because he (and not the offensive-limited Simon or the "simply giving it his all" Hudson) is the only potential top 6er of the group. It's not like Kyle is lighting it up at RW, so of course he can move back to LW where he has spent half his career (and I would argue been more productive).

The only question really about the forward group is whether we can find enough loose change in the sofas to bring back Engvall, as I doubt we can or will do anything else. I am actually ok with this forward group in 2023-24:

Lee-Horvat-Barzal
Plamieri-Nelson- Wahlstrom/Engvall
Parise-JGP-Holmstrom
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck/Fasching

Durandeau/Iskhakov/Dufour

No, the biggest thing we need is our 6 million or so and Bailey to transform into a backup goalie and TWO defenseman, with one of them being a puck mover, something this team DESPERATELY needs....

Not sure investing in Varly (will he take 2 million????) or Mayfield (surely he wants to get paid now) is the way to go AT ALL......which again, is why I would have moved them...

P.S. I don't even consider trading Nelson, Pageau or Palmieri because of the cost it would take to move the later two and giving no credence whatsoever to Lou moving Brock, although it most certainly should be an option to help our long term status

Appreciate the detailed response.

I agree on Wahlstrom - he did show improvements in his game this year - had a bumpy stretch before he went down. Not knowing exactly what's happening it may be revealed he was nursing something before that hit he laid on ?? , forget the player right now.

They could go with -
Barzal - Horvat - Wahlstrom
Lee - Nelson - Palmieri
Parise - Pageau - Holmstrom
Martin - Cizikas - Fasching/Johnston
*I believe Cal might be done. We'll see what happens in the offseason, if he isn't then he takes his rightful spot on the identity line and Johnston and Fasching provide depth.
*Bailey needs to be moved. I think that needs to be 1st priority.
*Wahlstrom is qualified for one year. He does not have arbitration rights, so he either accepts or sits out.

49 m for 13 F's - that is without Cal and Bailey
50.8 for 14 F's - that is without Bailey
54.7 for 14 F's - that is without Johnston

*Mayfield resigns for 4.25-4.5
*I don't see a Varly coming back - they simply do not have the cap space, unless they move Bailey and use that $ to bring back Varly.

24.25 for 7 D - Mayfield resigned and vet d at the league minimum to play the 7th D role.

4m for Sorokin

77.25 - 21 man roster - no back up goalie, no cal and no bailey
79.05 - 22 man roster - no back up goalie and no bailey
82.95 - 22 man roster - no back up goalie and no Johnston

I would sign Bertuzzi for 5m and sign a modest back up and let the kids fight for 3rd line role.
If Cal, Bailey, and Varly are not on the roster.

 

[MJF]

Then you trade everyone of value over say 24, including Sorokin. And since the Isles won't be signing UFAs at discounts or getting players cheap via "forced" trades or signings, you can look at contending in maybe 7 or 8 years. But we can occupy ourselves in the meantime reading draft previews and imagining future glory based on our high organizational prospect rankings.

Or we can keep doing what we’re doing and scuffle for an 8 seed year after year. Clearly this is a ton of fun for you all.

I don’t know why you people think that a rebuild means trading EVERY BODY. It doesn’t. But let’s be realistic, after Sorokin, Dobson, Pelech, and Nelson, who was worth making a long term commitment to last year?

Live look at Lou:

Yup. Getting JGP and Barzy back is like a deadline trade without giving anyone up except Otto.

 

[MJF]

Remember when guys coming back from injuries were spun as deadline pick ups?

You beat me to it.

 

[Big L]

Then you trade everyone of value over say 24, including Sorokin. And since the Isles won't be signing UFAs at discounts or getting players cheap via "forced" trades or signings, you can look at contending in maybe 7 or 8 years. But we can occupy ourselves in the meantime reading draft previews and imagining future glory based on our high organizational prospect rankings.

7 or 8 years if your lucky and your draft picks pan out.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Remember when guys coming back from injuries were spun as deadline pick ups?

Yup. Getting JGP and Barzy back is like a deadline trade without giving anyone up except Otto.

Yup, there were a lot of jokes about them being the deadline acquisitions...............aaaaaaaaaaaaaand here we are.

If Lou ever does have media availability regarding the deadline, you will 1,000% hear that quote.

 

[mm11]

I'd gather the Isles were practicing the PP these last few days. I expect to see new wrinkles and tons of goals. Easy-peasy

 

[The Real JT]

Trading Nelson started long before we got Bo Horvat. It was when many people here believed he would get a king’s ransom at the 2022 TDL when we should have been sellers and started rebuilding instead of going the route we’re on now. At that point nobody believed any skilled UFA would sign here and guys like Nelson would age out before the team is competitive again. The thought of extending a 34 year old Nelson to a UFA contract does not appeal to me now and it didn’t then. When Lou traded for Horvat that committed us to the mushy middle because it keeps us from doing anything more than changing pieces on the fly instead of rebuilding the right way.

The Islanders must get faster and more skilled to be near the top of our division. The place we are right now does not appeal to me and we’re poised to run much of the same team back out there yet again next year. A year older, a year slower, and still as unskilled.

If Bailey and if Clutter. If Cizikas and if Martin. If Pageau and if Wahlstrom. That’s a lot of unproductive and underproducing from our forwards.

I was one of those who would’ve looked favorably on trading Nelson for an overpayment this past offseason. I didn’t want to lose him but felt his value was perhaps at its peak. Before someone jumps on that comment that doesn’t mean in the least that I wanted him gone. I felt then and still feel now that we’re solidly mediocre and that doesn’t cut it for me.

With Lou’s all in (or mostly in) mentality and with the 2024 pick being unprotected it would be prudent to not even consider trading Nelson until probably the 23-24 offseason at the earliest so as to avoid giving away a potential lottery pick next year. While that type of underperformance is unlikely it’s not an impossibility. If we were to be without Nelson then we’d be one major injury away (Horvat, Barzal, Pelech or Sorokin) from lotto land.

 

[Mike C]

This 3 game stretch is so crucial.
Home against Buff, @ Pens, Home against Caps.
I'll take wins against Buffalo and Caps and be happy with a loser point against the Pens.
If they take all 3- it positions to take away some of those games at hand other teams have.

Then on a west coast trip - Kings, Ducks, and Sharks - going 2 and 1 during that trip is crucial.

If Isles want that 7th seed they made need to have 94 -95 points. For that 8th spot, 92-94 should get it done.

With JGP back, they need to shut it down against the Sabres - their D and G are not very good, so they will get their chances - it is crucial they stay out of the box and play a strong defensive game.

Good analysis-- Sabres are indeed loose in own end....maybe Edm can skate them into some nice tired legs for tomorrow

Karate night and no ESPN plus. I wanted to DVR Sens/Hawks. Kid wants to watch Caps/Kings " Black Hawks are boring to watch"

See you bud!

 

[seafoam]

And the Islanders are playing Buffalo on their second night of a back to back. Need that win at all costs.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I just don't get the "trade Nelson" thing.

Sure you do. Take 5 seconds to think about all the puerile reasons why this is being proposed.

 

[CupHolders]

I don’t know why you people think that a rebuild means trading EVERY BODY. It doesn’t. But let’s be realistic, after Sorokin, Dobson, Pelech, and Nelson, who was worth making a long term commitment to last year?

Because it does. Retool means trading for futures to support a select group of current players who remain...

 

[CupHolders]

Agreed that Parise can stay if he signs another league min deal. Agree that Fasching should be signing a league min 2-way contract. He's a cool story but has very little impact on a game.

With this lineup we tread water again next season.

2-way contract just means that he earns a different amount (70K) while in the minors. It doesn't change his waiver protections. If he get's a one way deal he is guaranteed that amount regardless of where he plays NHL or AHL. So if he is given a one way deal that is anything below 1.1M then none of that will go against the cap if he is sent down.

In other words, you don't need to sign him to a two-way deal in order to try and save cap. You can hook him up with a guaranteed one way deal as a rewards AND incentive while still keeping the cost below anything prohibitive against the cap if he doesn't work out. Win-Win.

 

[MJF]

2-way contract just means that he earns a different amount (70K) while in the minors. It doesn't change his waiver protections. If he get's a one way deal he is guaranteed that amount regardless of where he plays NHL or AHL. So if he is given a one way deal that is anything below 1.1M then none of that will go against the cap if he is sent down.

In other words, you don't need to sign him to a two-way deal in order to try and save cap. You can hook him up with a guaranteed one way deal as a rewards AND incentive while still keeping the cost below anything prohibitive against the cap if he doesn't work out. Win-Win.

I’m aware of the difference between a 1-way and a 2-way contract. I don’t think Hudson Fasching is a serious replacement for Cal Clutterbuck. I could easily see Fasching being relegated to the AHL for a long stretch next year. So while he’s down there why pay him an NHL salary? And if Fasching uses a 2-way deal as motivation to be the best player he can be, what’s the harm in that?