Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[TeamKidd]

Do you mean 4 years at $6M per year? I don't think Lou would do that.

If you mean 6 years at $4M per year, that's a closer call. My guess is Lou would want to do 6 years at $3.5M or maybe $3.75M.

Yes I mean 4Mx6YRS LL likes his long contracts

 

[steveat]

Every player will go for 8 years but they will accept a lower AAV. Usually it means that the first 4 years are super high salary and the back half would have a cap hit of 1-2 mill. Players are all just looking for the long employment protection..too bad normal people can't do that.

 

[MJF]

Don’t mean to be that guy, but despite the horrid losses we’re still 4-1-1 in the last 6. That 2-1-1 pace that we’re on since the Horvat trade is essentially what needs to be repeated from here on out. The three points lost in the Canadian games can be essentially washed away by the couple of 4 point swing Pittsburgh games we have this week.

The losses were shameful and inexcusable, but if we weren’t buried before we still aren’t now

It’s starting to feel like I’m waiting for a train that isn’t going to come.

 

[YearlyLottery]

It’s starting to feel like I’m waiting for a train that isn’t going to come.

At this point assuming the team sweeps Pittsburgh in the upcoming two game series is wild thinking. Of course if the team goes and beats Ottawa, loses in Boston, but beats Pittsburgh in regulation both games we would have a much different viewpoint.

It would show just something that this team really hasn't shown since before Christmas and that is resilience. This is not the same team that was having multi goal comebacks against Colorado and Calgary early on in the season.

 

[The Real JT]

I’ve gone back and forth on Mayfield.

On the one hand he’s been one of our best and most reliable Dmen for 2 years. I’m convinced we’d be solidly in the lottery discussion if we didn’t have him, so gun to my head I say keep him. Any new deal should ideally be no more than $4M X 4 years. If he doesn’t take it then vaya con dios.

Many here are also saying he’ll fetch a first rounder + but I’m not so sure. With Chychrun and Karlsson likely to be traded, Lou’s leverage is limited. The longer he waits, the fewer suitors for Mayfield there will be.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Many here are also saying he’ll fetch a first rounder + but I’m not so sure. With Chychrun and Karlsson likely to be traded, Lou’s leverage is limited. The longer he waits, the fewer suitors for Mayfield there will be.

Then again, Mayfield isn't in the same class, nor is he the same type of Dman as Chychrun and Karlsson.

Some teams may be looking for exactly what he brings to the table, which is something the other two don't.

He's really an absolute ideal #5 Dman.

 

[The Real JT]

Then again, Mayfield isn't in the same class, nor is he the same type of Dman as Chychrun and Karlsson.

Some teams may be looking for exactly what he brings to the table, which is something the other two don't.

He's really an absolute ideal #5 Dman.

Good point. It’s hard to disagree with.

While none of these others are perfect matches for Mayfield I’ll throw out Gavrikov, Ghost, Schenn, Dumba and Klingberg all of whom have been rumored to be available. It’s a buyer’s market for Dmen this year.

I think we Isles fans rightly value what Mayfield brings to the table. In a strong upcoming draft with many other Dmen available, I think we’ll be fortunate to get no more than a late first round pick for him.

In any event, it’s probably a moot point since Lou doesn’t sell players like him.

 

[ekill08x]

There is no way I am locking up Mayfield at 4m for 6 years. We'd have 3 slightly above average defensemen locked up for the better part of a decade and wonder why we are never going anywhere. The Pulock contract is already looking like a mistake. I would give Mayfield that deal if we move Pulock. Otherwise that is a ton of money locked up for 3 guys who all are not #1 defensemen.

Yes I mean 4Mx6YRS LL likes his long contracts

I dont actually think he LIKES them lol per his own comments

 

[Glory Days]

There is no way I am locking up Mayfield at 4m for 6 years. We'd have 3 slightly above average defensemen locked up for the better part of a decade and wonder why we are never going anywhere. The Pulock contract is already looking like a mistake. I would give Mayfield that deal if we move Pulock. Otherwise that is a ton of money locked up for 3 guys who all are not #1 defensemen.


I dont actually think he LIKES them lol per his own comments

Pulock and Pelech have the 38th and 48th highest cap hits for defensemen. Neither is being paid top pairing dollars. Another season or two and neither will be in the top 50. Neither of those contracts are an issue.

 

[TeamKidd]

There is no way I am locking up Mayfield at 4m for 6 years. We'd have 3 slightly above average defensemen locked up for the better part of a decade and wonder why we are never going anywhere. The Pulock contract is already looking like a mistake. I would give Mayfield that deal if we move Pulock. Otherwise that is a ton of money locked up for 3 guys who all are not #1 defensemen.


I dont actually think he LIKES them lol per his own comments

Okay then war game who our #6 dman is and how much we paying them?

 

[seabass45]

Every player will go for 8 years but they will accept a lower AAV. Usually it means that the first 4 years are super high salary and the back half would have a cap hit of 1-2 mill. Players are all just looking for the long employment protection..too bad normal people can't do that.

I don’t think you can backload contracts like that anymore.

 

[SI]

That would be a burn it to the ground move trading Nelson. Isles need to move a couple of big contracts but preferably not Nelson.

Alternatively you move Mayfield, Varly and Parise and pick up perhaps two 1sts and a 3rd, perhaps even a prospect or two if we're really lucky. Parise will resign in the summer at the league minimum so no risk there.

Now use a pick or two to move the likes of Bailey and/or Palmieri. Although I do not entertain the idea of adding someone like Henrique it may serve as a basis for a bigger deal. Would the Ducks do Bailey, Palmieri, 1st rounder and 3rd (acquired in a trades) for Henrique and a signed Klingberg? Anything similar doable with other teams, ie. Offering Bailey and a 1st for Player X and a 2nd? Or Bailey and a 2nd for Player X?

This is an over-exaggeration. They still have Sorokin, Barzal, Horvat, Lee, Pageau, Dobson, Pulock, and Pelech. Nelson's return on a potential trade may not get any higher than this offseason, where Boston, Minnesota, Carolina, and Colorado would all be teams who would gladly pay a top prospect and a 1st in 2023 for Nelson's 2 years. If they keep Nelson, it is simply more of the same thing... moving him is a bold move that create options.

Another poster here did correct me about his age - but even at 32, the Islanders have an opportunity to get younger and quicker.

Moving Varlamov, Mayfield, and Nelson would give the Isles the cap space and assets to make other moves, like a move for DeBrincat.

I have no interest in Henrique or Klingberg... no reason to move Palmieri, whose cap hit makes him very difficult to move this season - Palmieri is still productive as long as he plays RW 2.

 

[SI]

I don't like this at all.

1) Nelson has arguably been our best forward at a sweetheart deal. 6 mil for him has turned into a bargain. He also has 2 years left on his deal. Imagine getting a 30 goal scoring center, at age 32 for 2 years at 6 mil? I'd sign up in a heartbeat. If you're rebuilding, he'll bring you back a ton. But you don't trade him just to sign a guy for too much money on too much term. Also, aside from Pasta, who would you prefer to allocate the 6 mil for? Besides, Pasta is likely return to Boston at close to the max.

2) Gavrikov is not good and will get overpaid. His best asset is playing a lot of minutes against tough competition, and he doesn't do particularly well in those situations. He's on a bad team, so he's probably better than awful. However, he will get overpaid. I want nothing to do with Gavrikov.

3) I like your idea about Meier and Debrincat. However, they will both cost more than the 6 mil for Nelson, with Debrincat not bringing as much value as Nelson, and at a higher cost. Meier, on the other hand, is an elite power forward. But will cost around 9-10 mil (3-4 mil more than Nelson). Boeser is a huge downgrade from the other players mentioned, including Nelson. So getting Boeser while losing Nelson is a horrible move - at a higher cost, no less.


If Isles choose to start rebuilding, Nelson is a great place to start though.

There needs to be some imagination - see Montreal during draft day.

Yes, Nelson will give you a good return to therefore give you options to make a move for Meier (if he lasts past TDL and deBrincat). I agree with you about free agency, but players like Bertuzzi and Kane are good gambles, IMO. If not there top6 F contracts that may be had for cheap Vrana, Boeser, Garland, Schmaltz to name a few.

Gavrikov is a very good D man and fits the mold here.

I’ve gone back and forth on Mayfield.

On the one hand he’s been one of our best and most reliable Dmen for 2 years. I’m convinced we’d be solidly in the lottery discussion if we didn’t have him, so gun to my head I say keep him. Any new deal should ideally be no more than $4M X 4 years. If he doesn’t take it then vaya con dios.

Many here are also saying he’ll fetch a first rounder + but I’m not so sure. With Chychrun and Karlsson likely to be traded, Lou’s leverage is limited. The longer he waits, the fewer suitors for Mayfield there will be.

Josh Manson signed a 4y/4.5 aav - starting price for Mayfield starts there.
Gudbranson got 4y/4 AAV and Mayfield is a way better player.

 

[SI]

My second attempt at this thought -

If all goes wrong leading up to the deadline, then selling Varlamov and Mayfield to maximize at the TDL can go a long way this offseason.
Here are 2 realistic trades for the 2 players -
*Carolina 2023 1st and 2024 2nd for Mayfield
*Kings 2023 2nd and 2024 2nd for Varlamov (@ 50% retained)

If the Isles do not keep pace, then there is a chance they fall into the top 12 very easily.
16th - Calgary
15th - Buffalo
14th - Florida
13th - Nashville
12th - Isles
11th - Detroit
10th - Blues
9th - Senators
8th - Flyers

If the Isles land the 12th pick in the draft, then they keep it and give away the 2024 pick. Carolina's pick will most likely be in the high 20's. With the Kings deal the Isles have multiple 2nd rounders, leaving one of them as a potential to move Bailey's contract for 1 year. For example, Chicago could move Colin Blackwell (1/1.2m) for Bailey and one of the 2024 2nd round picks.

The Senators acquired DeBrincat for the 7th OA, 39th OA, and a 3rd in 2024... Isles could dangle the 12 OA, 44 OA, and 2024 3rd for Debrincat. Lou does what Lou does and signs him long term.

Draft Day - Isles would still have the Carolina pick in the 1st, the Kings 2nd rounder in 2023, as well as the Hurricanes and Kings, 2024 picks in the 2nd round.

DeBrincat's deal may force the Isles to move Nelson adding a young roster player and possibly another 1st - think Minny 1st and Lambos or Colorado's 1st and Newhook.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

unless Caps falter and we are close enough in Lou's mind to get there

also, the unknown is what is Lou's affection for keeping Mayfield, Varly and Parise regardless of where the standings sit as I harken back to the 2 year renewal of Calvin

I don't see Lou selling, whether he's planning with those guys or not moving forward. Or even if he sees us as having no chance (which we do one way or another - I mean, play .500 hockey for 15 games, then win 10 in a row and you're in, right?).

I mean trade deadline activity as in whether he moves everything we still l have in the cupboard to bring in a Chychrun.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

If the Isles do not keep pace, then there is a chance they fall into the top 12 very easily.

We can only hope.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

With the TDL weeks away, My preference is the Isles trade Mayfield, Pageau, and Varly to add some needed assets back to the cupboard. Draft capital. My valuation is potentially 3 top 1st or 2nd rd picks. Whether Lou will make moves is another question. He had a chance to move Clutterbuck last year for most likely a 2nd rd pick and didn't. Nelson is a wildcard trade chip IMO. He's having another productive year. With Horvat signed, he could make Nelson expendable if he is moved back to Center. Lou could also make moves before the draft, but with Mayfield and Varly as pending UFA's. My feelings are you have to get assets back since the cupboard is bare. Both players will be sought at the TDL. Most playoff teams value D and G. Also from a team chemistry point of view, this team needs to change the chemistry that has been missing since the Isles lost to TB in game 7, 2 years ago.

 

[IslesNorway]

I don't think Lou has any plans on selling unless the team loses eight in a row or something OR ownership steps in and tells him to because they don't think it's right to give up our remaining assets in another deal. I don't think that is very likely unless they are planning on not bringing Lou back next year, but if they really are looking at someone else and want to avoid Lou going scorched earth, that may be necessary.

Either way, it all hinges on the games between the deadline and now.

I for one would be fine with dealing away whatever UFAs we have to recoup some assets, and start replenishing the cupboard. It's been a long time since the Islanders actually did that.

 

[gordie43]

There isn’t any way this team sells. I don’t think a guy like Horvat signs on if ownership or Lou hinted at that during negotiations. Plus what does that tell other players who would want to consider the Islanders during free agency? Most players want to win, or at least be a part of a team that is trying to win not tank for a player that could take their roster spot.

This is the team like it or not, Lou can only add at this point. In for a penny in for a pound, as a fan who’s seen my share of losing I’m good with going for it every chance you get.

Also draft picks are only good if you pick the right guy.

 

[Mike C]

There isn’t any way this team sells. I don’t think a guy like Horvat signs on if ownership or Lou hinted at that during negotiations. Plus what does that tell other players who would want to consider the Islanders during free agency? Most players want to win, or at least be a part of a team that is trying to win not tank for a player that could take their roster spot.

This is the team like it or not, Lou can only add at this point. In for a penny in for a pound, as a fan who’s seen my share of losing I’m good with going for it every chance you get.

Also draft picks are only good if you pick the right guy.

Awesome post!!

 

[IslesNorway]

There isn’t any way this team sells. I don’t think a guy like Horvat signs on if ownership or Lou hinted at that during negotiations. Plus what does that tell other players who would want to consider the Islanders during free agency? Most players want to win, or at least be a part of a team that is trying to win not tank for a player that could take their roster spot.

This is the team like it or not, Lou can only add at this point. In for a penny in for a pound, as a fan who’s seen my share of losing I’m good with going for it every chance you get.

Also draft picks are only good if you pick the right guy.

The only problem is the Islanders won't have the space to sign said UFAs....

It's either sticking with Mayfield and Varlamov and giving them new deals, or letting them walk for nothing and replace them with players who'll be looking to get overpaid in FA, without necessarily improving the team.

Top UFAs aren't coming here nor is there cap space available. Isles will be looking at 2nd tier UFAs anyway.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Ya, I dont know why peeps are suggesting Lou is going to do something like trade Nelson when it is so out of character for him. For a team that needs scoring, you aren't trading one of the few who do it consistently each season. He has yet to show me he can make a deal that requires any real chess moving on his part either...

Nelson isn't going anywhere and I doubt he has the insight to trade Varlamov or Mayfield even if we are still looking up for a playoff spot or even worse then we are now come the TDL.

Focus should be on getting better and hoping should he make more moves it is bringing players in who can revamp/replace this roster full of overpaid 3rd liners or give us considerable help on the blueline....

 

[LBloor]

i love the inner/behind the scenes stuff you allude to

my overriding question (rhetorically) is who would these guys respond to nowadays

They want player coaches guys like Don Cherry was Ted Nolan is, however GM's generally do not like these type f coaches.

 

[LBloor]

I don’t think you can backload contracts like that anymore.

you can however it does not change the aav it is still total dollars divided by the years

 

[Mike C]

They want player coaches guys like Don Cherry was Ted Nolan is, however GM's generally do not like these type f coaches.

Don Cherry, loved that guy....didn't give a crap what the hell came out of his mouth....guy was in a Tragically Hip video too!