Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[JPIsles18]

I think all the discussion about Romanov/Aho/Barzal/the powerplay/etc isn’t really as important as Pelech and Pulock. I don't see this team being competitive without Pelech-Pulock playing at the level they can, and if Lambert isn't capable of getting what Trotz got out of them we have issues.

You can fire Lambert, but firing someone like Trotz may be difficult. And where does that put Lamoriello? We have little cap space. Fixing the defense via UFA probably won't happen. So does he move another 1st + to fix the defense? Moving draft picks like this can't be a successful long-term strategy.

The power play is actually the main issue. Here are some stats over the last 25 games:

Record: 10-10-5

5v5 Stats during this time period:

xGF%: 51.9% (12th in the league)
Actual GF%: 55.6% (9th in the league)

Power Play during this time period:

xGF/60: 6.5 (29th in the league)
Actual GF/60: 3.8 (32nd in the league)


5v5 the Isles have improved their play drastically. However, the power play is not only not scoring, they are also not generating enough chances either. They need to get rid of John Maclean for starters. Especially with Horvat now, there are enough shooters on the team. But even during yesterday's game, you saw Nelson on the left side on a stationary PP. There's no excuse for that. He's the teams best shooter, he should be on his off wing. Stuff like this adds up. If the Isles were even league average or slightly below average on the PP, we'd be in a playoff spot. It's an enormous problem, which I believe is coaching related.

 

[Chardo]

It boils down to just two problems. A woefully inept power play, and disorganized play in their own end.

Both of these are direct failures of coaching.

 

[The Real JT]

I still cannot imagine virtually any circumstance where LL sells at the deadline. Seems wishful thinking for some of you.

Agreed but perhaps if the Isles lost another 4 of the next 5 games it could happen.

By then, some suitors for Mayfield and Varly might’ve found a different dance partner.

In the end, I don’t see it happening. Lou does Lou.

 

[TeamKidd]

Agreed but perhaps if the Isles lost another 4 of the next 5 games it could happen.

By then, some suitors for Mayfield and Varly might’ve found a different dance partner.

In the end, I don’t see it happening. Lou does Lou.

If we are more than a few points out with several teams to climb then we should move those two.... I just don't see LL doing it

 

[Lek]

Agreed but perhaps if the Isles lost another 4 of the next 5 games it could happen.

By then, some suitors for Mayfield and Varly might’ve found a different dance partner.

In the end, I don’t see it happening. Lou does Lou.

I do not see Varly going anywhere unless it is an overpay....massive.
I can see Mayfield going though...not for massive but for market if it brings us back a non rental.

I would move (pretty much) whatever it takes to get Meire or Chycryun including the 2025 1st, Varley, Mayfield picks.....then unload whatever it takes to keep them. I know that will not happen, but that is what should be done, now. First round prospect rebuild would have to wait and it could if we did this.

 

[MJF]

Looks like they are about to spend a bunch on Chychrun.

Sounds like Chychrun is going to the Kings as of late last night.

 

[Top Corner]

The season is kind of playing out to how I had envisioned late November. Take away the first year when Trotz took over, the team would go on crazy point streaks and then go cold for weeks but they did enough to get into the playoffs. Even though I didn’t see the playoffs during the covid years as normal, it was the same for all teams. What I did see with the Islanders though, they seemed to be a tight team enjoying the after years of Tavares and their own identity but a shortage of top end talent and speed began to surface. Last year injuries and depth issues showed how average we were and to see nothing but a coach change was baffling. The coach change injected a little life away from the stifling Trotz system but the talent level eventually took over and one of the reasons I felt if we didn’t do something big before Christmas we weren’t going to be there. Of course , the right time to have made wholesale changes was before this season started. We have some decent talent but a decision needs to be made now to possibly see what can be done to maximize their assets on expiring contracts , see what they have coming up and plan to reshape the older part of the roster into a younger version. I know there is a lot of love for Mayfield and Varly but you cannot let their contract expire without assets if you are essentially out by March 3.

 

[MJF]

Noah Dobson has certainly been an issue defensively this season. Maybe now in retrospect its' fair to say that he was helped greatly by being paired with Zdeno Chara most of last year. Chara may have been immobile in transition, but inside our blue line he was plenty solid. Dobson's biggest issues are still positioning and boxing out opponents near our net, and getting beat back in footraces. I think for the rest of the season Dobson would be best served by being paired with someone more defensively responsible than Sebastian Aho.

I would go with

Pelech-Dobson
Aho-Pulock
Romanov-Mayfield

 

[YearlyLottery]

My guess is that you're finding the differences between two teams and then correlating that with the level of success the teams are having. I don't think they're related.

That is a fair point. I do think we look at other teams like Toronto, NYR, Carolina, Boston, and Tampa who are all more skilled and faster than the Isles are. Whatever it is, something need to change.

There are so many factors involved; Trotz had an abbreviated team with COVID-IR last season, that's core. Any savvy hockey fan (which you are) can see that Lambert is inferior to Trotz. He (Trotz) extracted every ounce of winning out of this team. Now, he had personal obligations that distracted him, that's a tough situation b/c we don't know what went on behind scenes. I am confident that this team would be better under a better coach.

Hughes has been out, what, a few games. Context, NJD is a team that's peaking after a long rebuild. They are playing confident and are nearly developed. It's easy to use other teams in these situations as examples. I wouldn't use a few games of Hughes out to compare to NYI's situation. Yeah, this team needs speed, but that's not the defining factor. They want to win b/c they've lost so much (which feeds the whole rebuild diatribe, I know). Moreover, I think NYI are fast enough, they can compensate with quick puck movement. A coach can also impact 'looking relieved.' It's an easy narrative, naturally, but there's so much girt, passion, and character in this team that I (suspect) they aren't content; twice, a game away from the Stanley Cup. The exhausting part I agree with, especially given Trotz' expectations of commitment.

Yes, tweaks are needed. Objectively, I see what I can get out of this core. I think they are good enough to compete next year and another two years. Horvat is a game changer, not that he's super elite. It's his age, he's peaking at the right time and he meshes with the current emerging core.

I'm not sure about Lou, b/c he's 'all in,' I am sure about Lambert. He's not terrible, but with the makeup of this team they need an upper echelon coach.

This is an awesome post. Lots of good information here that I agree with. At what point do the Islander get sick of the "losing so much" though? Shouldn't two straight season of not being a playoff team for a group that was essentially one group away from beating Montreal be enough losing?

Lambert is what he is. He is a rookie head coach with a team who is built to win now. Trotz is better, but firing Trotz had a lot to do with him not wanting to coach this season.

 

[Mike C]

That is a fair point. I do think we look at other teams like Toronto, NYR, Carolina, Boston, and Tampa who are all more skilled and faster than the Isles are. Whatever it is, something need to change.





This is an awesome post. Lots of good information here that I agree with. At what point do the Islander get sick of the "losing so much" though? Shouldn't two straight season of not being a playoff team for a group that was essentially one group away from beating Montreal be enough losing?

Lambert is what he is. He is a rookie head coach with a team who is built to win now. Trotz is better, but firing Trotz had a lot to do with him not wanting to coach this season.

I don't agree with the Trotz synopsis but no matter what the reason, hiring a rookie coach for a team build for now was folly. If Lou truly feels the playoffs are salvageable this season, he needs to get an NHL savvy experienced coach in there pronto

 

[Mike C]

I think all the discussion about Romanov/Aho/Barzal/the powerplay/etc isn’t really as important as Pelech and Pulock. I don't see this team being competitive without Pelech-Pulock playing at the level they can, and if Lambert isn't capable of getting what Trotz got out of them we have issues.

You can fire Lambert, but firing someone like Trotz may be difficult. And where does that put Lamoriello? We have little cap space. Fixing the defense via UFA probably won't happen. So does he move another 1st + to fix the defense? Moving draft picks like this can't be a successful long-term strategy.

Oscar Madison "not in other words. Those are the perfect ones"

Don't have to find someone like Trotz. Just find Trotz himself

 

[The Real JT]

It’s time for everyone, even the remaining stragglers, to admit that even in the best of circumstances the 7/8 seeds in the East have no chance of making it to the finals.

Every now and then one of the bubble teams has a good game and the narrative changes. (e.g. Isles 4-0 over Seattle or Caps 2-1 over Boston). It shouldn’t. There’s far less parity this year in the East than in past seasons. There’s the top 6 and then everyone else.

 

[Mike C]

It’s time for everyone, even the remaining stragglers, to admit that even in the best of circumstances the 7/8 seeds in the East have no chance of making it to the finals.

Every now and then one of the bubble teams has a good game and the narrative changes. (e.g. Isles 4-0 over Seattle or Caps 2-1 over Boston). It shouldn’t. There’s far less parity this year in the East than in past seasons.

 

[ekill08x]

Noah Dobson has certainly been an issue defensively this season. Maybe now in retrospect its' fair to say that he was helped greatly by being paired with Zdeno Chara most of last year. Chara may have been immobile in transition, but inside our blue line he was plenty solid. Dobson's biggest issues are still positioning and boxing out opponents near our net, and getting beat back in footraces. I think for the rest of the season Dobson would be best served by being paired with someone more defensively responsible than Sebastian Aho.

I would go with

Pelech-Dobson
Aho-Pulock
Romanov-Mayfield

I agree about Dobson because his lack of defense stands out, but it really has been everyone. Every single defensemen that played under Trotz has noticeably regressed. Pelech has not been very good this year, nor has Pulock, both of whom just signed 8 year deals. Lou, or whoever the GM is going to be moving forward, should really be looking to move one of them. They're too redundant and we need to find a legitimate number 1 defensemen. We have 3 middle pairing guys and 3 bottom bottom guys. We should be looking to re-work that entire group this offseason. Nobody on team that misses the playoffs two years in a row is untouchable.

 

[Mike C]

I agree about Dobson because his lack of defense stands out, but it really has been everyone. Every single defensemen that played under Trotz has noticeably regressed. Pelech has not been very good this year, nor has Pulock, both of whom just signed 8 year deals. Lou, or whoever the GM is going to be moving forward, should really be looking to move one of them. They're too redundant and we need to find a legitimate number 1 defensemen. We have 3 middle pairing guys and 3 bottom bottom guys. We should be looking to re-work that entire group this offseason. Nobody on team that misses the playoffs two years in a row is untouchable.

 

[doublechili]

I agree about Dobson because his lack of defense stands out, but it really has been everyone. Every single defensemen that played under Trotz has noticeably regressed. Pelech has not been very good this year, nor has Pulock, both of whom just signed 8 year deals. Lou, or whoever the GM is going to be moving forward, should really be looking to move one of them. They're too redundant and we need to find a legitimate number 1 defensemen. We have 3 middle pairing guys and 3 bottom bottom guys. We should be looking to re-work that entire group this offseason. Nobody on team that misses the playoffs two years in a row is untouchable.

To me that's the appeal of Chychrun. He'd push everyone else back one slot. Not sure if it would be Chychrun and Dobson as a 1st pair right away, but over time that's what you'd hope to see. Pelech/Pulock as a shutdown 2nd pair. Romanov and Mayfield (or whoever if Mayfield isn't re-signed) as the 3rd pair. And Chychrun is very reasonably priced for the next couple of years. We don't have any legit 1st pair possibilities in the pipeline either, so this seems like the best opportunity. And I'm sure someone's going to question whether Chychrun is a legit #1, but he's close enough and his contract makes him a possibility for the next couple of years.

 

[Mike C]

The season is kind of playing out to how I had envisioned late November. Take away the first year when Trotz took over, the team would go on crazy point streaks and then go cold for weeks but they did enough to get into the playoffs. Even though I didn’t see the playoffs during the covid years as normal, it was the same for all teams. What I did see with the Islanders though, they seemed to be a tight team enjoying the after years of Tavares and their own identity but a shortage of top end talent and speed began to surface. Last year injuries and depth issues showed how average we were and to see nothing but a coach change was baffling. The coach change injected a little life away from the stifling Trotz system but the talent level eventually took over and one of the reasons I felt if we didn’t do something big before Christmas we weren’t going to be there. Of course , the right time to have made wholesale changes was before this season started. We have some decent talent but a decision needs to be made now to possibly see what can be done to maximize their assets on expiring contracts , see what they have coming up and plan to reshape the older part of the roster into a younger version. I know there is a lot of love for Mayfield and Varly but you cannot let their contract expire without assets if you are essentially out by March 3.

Great point. Given the final closing price, Horvat should have been captured when the team was still able to make separation in the standings


What Barry's style really stifled beyond all else is this teams lack of ability.

Barry is a classy guy but if I were him (and Bruce Arians as well) I'd secretly or maybe not so secretly say " good for ya, you got what you deserved"

Or if I were a new ager I guess the saying is "how'd that work out for ya?"

 

[seafoam]

Bailey + Wahlstrom for Boeser. Who says no?

Also, the two PIT games next week will be an 8 point swing, keep that in mind.

 

[duster19]

facilitate the oilers by taking on JESSE PULJUJÄRVI and just let him walk in the summer by not qualifying him . Maybe you can get their 2nd or 3rd round pick for your troubles .

Could for sure. Might be enough to offset a pick to someone to take Bailey.

I wonder if they would pay us to take Barrie. He could help with a bad power play. Could then move Mayfield.

 

[Mike C]

Could for sure. Might be enough to offset a pick to someone to take Bailey.

I wonder if they would pay us to take Barrie. He could help with a bad power play. Could then move Mayfield.

Barrie has a cannon. Very erratic though. Not Pulock type but he would be lethal with better accuracy

 

[Top Corner]

What Barry's style really stifled beyond all else is this teams lack of ability.

Barry is a classy guy but if I were him (and Bruce Arians as well) I'd secretly or maybe not so secretly say " good for ya, you got what you deserved"

Or if I were a new ager I guess the saying is "how'd that work out for ya?"

Barry certainly squeezed every ounce of talent from the group which I think
Disoriented Lou into thinking the talent level was better. Turning back the clock, would it have been better to have not had the immediate success? I like the framework of the team but a new design team is needed to remodel this group. Might even require moving out Lee which frees up cap space and increases team speed through absenteeism

 

[Mike C]

Barry certainly squeezed every ounce of talent from the group which I think
Disoriented Lou into thinking the talent level was better. Turning back the clock, would it have been better to have not had the immediate success? I like the framework of the team but a new design team is needed to remodel this group. Might even require moving out Lee which frees up cap space and increases team speed through absenteeism

I am a believer of take your chance while you have it. I applaud Lou for going for it. We were Yanni Gourde away from the cup. My mindset is give me 1 cup and a life of fan misery than no cups at all

That's why it still irks me that Mets fans booed Gary Carter mercilessly in 1987 and especially '88 after delivering a WS

I think Horvat in Beau out is a great start for the future.

No issue with moving Lee if it's doable

 

[Foppberg]

Bailey + Wahlstrom for Boeser. Who says no?

Also, the two PIT games next week will be an 8 point swing, keep that in mind.

I'd be cool with that.

 

[dlawong]

I agree about Dobson because his lack of defense stands out, but it really has been everyone. Every single defensemen that played under Trotz has noticeably regressed. Pelech has not been very good this year, nor has Pulock, both of whom just signed 8 year deals. Lou, or whoever the GM is going to be moving forward, should really be looking to move one of them. They're too redundant and we need to find a legitimate number 1 defensemen. We have 3 middle pairing guys and 3 bottom bottom guys. We should be looking to re-work that entire group this offseason. Nobody on team that misses the playoffs two years in a row is untouchable.

If you are going to move one of them, then move Pulock as he really is not good at anything special anymore and can't help the struggling PP. He was supposed to be good at scoring but consistently missed the net or can't find the lane. He stopped making good outlet passes this year. Dobson should be on the top pairing, even with defensive challenges.

Pelech has always been physically tougher than Pulock. Mind you he had a concussion this year and may have been rushed coming back and being out so long can impact his conditioning and timing. He is still better at stick-checking than Pulock, better at transitioning, and more willing to engage in hard physical battles on the boards and in front of the net. He is having an off year but he still leads the team in plus-minus. The system change and expectation of him to contribute more offensively may impact his game negatively. Do not trade him, unless the return is a proven young elite defenseman with terms.

You can consider trading Pulock to Vancouver as Canucks need an RD and he will likely waive his no-trade clause as he is from the greater Vancouver area. A B+ LW forward prospect plus either a 2015 2nd-round pick, a 2024 first-round pick (higher of Canucks or Isles), or a cap dump like Bailey going the other way will work. Do this either at the draft this season or the beginning of next season, not now. I think Isles need to sign George next season before he opts for UFA as he has good potential. Do not let this one get away. Pelech practiced with him last summer, so there is some familiarity there.

If Isles falls further behind the Pens by 6 points, trade Varmalov for a 2015-round pick at the deadline to Vegas as they need a goalie to back up Thompson who is hurt. The isles need to find an extra 2015 2nd rounder to make up for the 1st round pick they may have lost this season. This is a deep draft year and you can still get good prospects through the first 3 rounds.

 

[seabass45]

Not confirmed yet but…