Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[MJF]

Assuming Isles go down the rebuild path and given the number of teams up against the cap who do you think Isles could realistically trade for a 1st round pick. I would say Barzal, Pelech, Sorokin, Dobson and maybe Nelson. I’m not against a rebuild but I don’t see it as being practical. I think the most likely path is to let the forward contracts expire in a few years and keep drafting forwards to replace them. The defense and goalie will still be young enough at that point. But for that to happen Lou needs to stop trading picks.

Trade Mayfield as well, which would break my heart.

My thought would be identify a core to build around. That would be Sorokin, Dobson, Pelech, Pulock, and perhaps Wahlstrom, Barzal, Raty, and Dufour.

 

[SI]

There is no rebuild.

Pelech and Pulock have full NTC for the next 3-4 seasons. BTW, they are both 28.
Isles are NOT trading Dobson or Sorokin that would be Gluckstern & Millstein scorch the earth type BS.
Barzal will be resigned.
Lee will retire an Islander (his contract certainly helps).
The Isles just spent 13 OA pick for Romanov and is signed to a very good contract for the next 3 years.

That is the core. Superstar goalie, 25 year old C, a balanced top4 under 28, and your Captain.


IF the team is clearly out of the playoffs, then...

Expiring contracts should be the first out the door!
Mayfield - returns a '23 late 1st rounder
Varlamov - returns good pieces - multiple picks and/or maybe a solid prospect and pick.
Parise - mid round pick

Next -
Clutterbuck @ 1.75 for one more season for a playoff team -

NOT moving - unfortunately
Palmieri - full NTC
Bailey - contract - might be possible in the offseason.

Conditional -
Beauvillier - if Beau does NOT find consistency then Lou should see what his market is, because he may yield a higher return come TDL and it moves 4 m off the cap, creating more space for possibly a free agent 23 offseason.

Staying -
Wahlstrom - young player, who I expect takes another step. If he has more growing pains this coming season - play the long game with him and stick with him for another season.
Bellows - waiver fodder or keep him in case you go for a rebuild (see below).
Cizikas and Martin - identity they don't cost much and their return would be minimal.

And this maybe enough to address futures and make this team competitive in 23-24.

REBUILD would mean - the next step - gutting your C depth.

Maybe -
Pageau
Nelson
*One or both of these moves would signal that the Isles will also NOT be a competitive team in 23-24 even if Raty looks close. Nelson definitely adds another 1st and possibly another piece. Pageau could also give you a nice return - more likely picks in '24. Trading both players would not be wise since you are putting Barzal and possibly Raty in a difficult position to carry the team.

 

[SI]

Now if the team exceeds expectations and are in 2nd or even 3rd, THEN...

I would expect the '23 1st rounder to be dangled for the top line sniper this team has needed for so LONG. The team will have the ability to accrue cap space through out the year AND it would be negligent for him not to add to the roster and address this need.

The team also has Sorokin, who might be Vezina caliber this season and could carry a team during SC Playoffs. At that point someone like Kane would be a must.

 

[MJF]

There is no rebuild.

Pelech and Pulock have full NTC for the next 3-4 seasons. BTW, they are both 28.
Isles are NOT trading Dobson or Sorokin that would be Gluckstern & Millstein type scorch the earth type BS.
Barzal will be resigned.
Lee will retire an Islander (his contract certainly helps).
The Isles just spent 13 OA pick for Romanov and is signed to a very good contract for the next 3 years.

That is the core. Superstar goalie, 25 year old C, a balanced top4 under 28, and your Captain.


IF the team is clearly out of the playoffs, then...

Expiring contracts should be the first out the door!
Mayfield - get back a '23 late 1st rounder
Varlamov - get back good pieces - multiple picks and/or maybe a solid prospect and pick.
Parise - mid round pick

Next -
Clutterbuck @ 1.75 for one more season for a playoff team -

NOT moving - unfortunately
Palmieri - full NTC
Bailey - contract - might be possible in the offseason.

Conditional -
Beauvillier - if Beau does NOT find consistency then Lou should see what his market is, because he may yield a higher return come TDL and it moves 4 m off the cap, creating more space for possibly a free agent 23 offseason.

Staying -
Wahlstrom - young player, who I expect takes another step. If he has more growing pains this coming season - play the long game with him and stick with him for another season.
Bellows - waiver fodder or keep him in case you go for a rebuild (see below).
Cizikas and Martin - identity they don't cost much and their return would be minimal.

And this maybe enough to address futures and make this team competitive in 23-24.

REBUILD would mean - the next step - gutting your C depth.

Maybe -
Pageau
Nelson
*One or both of these moves would signal that the Isles will also NOT be a competitive team in 23-24 even if Raty looks close. Nelson definitely adds another 1st and possibly another piece. Pageau could also give you a nice return - more likely picks in '24. Trading both players would not be wise since you are putting Barzal and possibly Raty in a difficult position to carry the team.

There should be a rebuild IF this team is struggling for a playoff spot by the 2023 Trade Deadline.

Finding out that veterans like Beauvillier and Barzal couldn't find another level to their game this season will not net us a big return, just the opposite, it will make them look like they are overpaid and the return won't be the high pick you expect. And letting veteran contracts expire on their own with no way to replace them is a death sentence for this team.

We will have to give up assets to prime the pump for the future.

 

[SI]

There should be a rebuild IF this team is struggling for a playoff spot by the 2023 Trade Deadline.

Finding out that veterans like Beauvillier and Barzal couldn't find another level to their game this season will not net us a big return, just the opposite, it will make them look like they are overpaid and the return won't be the high pick you expect. And letting veteran contracts expire on their own with no way to replace them is a death sentence for this team.

We will have to give up assets to prime the pump for the future.

IF they are in the wildcard hunt unfortunately - it would mean status quo.

If Beau struggles to find consistency, then I think he'd be more likely traded in the 23-24 offseason, so as to not compromise the season and lose the locker room and damage the culture. A deal in the offseason maybe for picks or for a similar struggling player.

As per Mayfield and Varlamov potentially walking - acquiring a back up goalie and a bottom pairing d man is NO death sentence. They also obtain cap space by letting them walk. In this scenario, the Isles still have a '23 1st and 2nd. Death sentence, c'mon!

For Barzal - I do not want to rehash our arguments - You know where I stand and I know where you stand. BUT in the chance that he struggles and the Isles decide they want to move on, that will only happen in the offseason and you can be sure there will be a market for the 25 year old RFA.

 

[MJF]

IF they are in the wildcard hunt unfortunately - it would mean status quo.

Status quo, like being in no-man’s land, is the worst place to be.

If the best this team can do is a wild card spot this year, it’s really time for OWNERSHIP to take a deep look at the organization and assess what direction they want to go.

 

[NC 1972]

That's just the point... St. Louis is a pretty doggone high bar to set.

They've been setting a very solid standard - perhaps the highest among teams that didn't go full-out rock bottom in the past 15-20 years on their way to winning a Cup and then remaining competitive.

And not every team that goes the rebuild route ends up even getting to St. Louis' standard of success.

To get to the bar you claim is much higher than mine, we'd first have to see the bar lowered basically to rock bottom and then hope we get some superstars through the highest of draft picks in the process. A route our former management spent the better part of this century unsuccessfully going with.

Ipso facto, that route isn't nearly as much of given as the one we've be on recently.

Yes there’s no certainty, especially in procuring young players you hope emerge into stars. In a league where you draft 17-18 year olds it’s important to take as many shots as possible to find the high end talent you’ll have control of for a decade. The NFL and NBA use collages to develop players and draft older kids closer to a finished product.

 

[SI]

Status quo, like being in no-man’s land, is the worst place to be.

If the best this team can do is a wild card spot this year, it’s really time for OWNERSHIP to take a deep look at the organization and assess what direction they want to go.

You are NOT being realistic - it is the 50th anniversary and 2nd year in the new building if they have the possibility of getting in they will go for it. They won’t sell at the TDL.

YOU may have that preference but mgmt and ownership don’t and (if it even matters) more than half this board agrees too.

 

[MJF]

You are NOT being realistic - it is the 50th anniversary and 2nd year in the new building if they have the possibility of getting in they will go for it. They won’t sell at the TDL.

YOU may have that preference but mgmt and ownership don’t and (if it even matters) more than half this board agrees too.

I don’t say this to get likes from this board. And I’m well aware of what is going on with a new building and trying to sell tickets in our 50th anniversary season (which most of our whining fans aren’t renewing this season). However, if we come into the end of February with a record of 500 or below, how well received do YOU think the team will be by the fans? I guarantee you the “Lou Must Go” chants will start as soon as a losing streak reaches 3 games.

If the team is scuffling to make the playoffs again this year, UBS will be a ghost town in March and April.

 

[Mike C]

IF they are in the wildcard hunt unfortunately - it would mean status quo.

If Beau struggles to find consistency, then I think he'd be more likely traded in the 23-24 offseason, so as to not compromise the season and lose the locker room and damage the culture. A deal in the offseason maybe for picks or for a similar struggling player.

As per Mayfield and Varlamov potentially walking - acquiring a back up goalie and a bottom pairing d man is NO death sentence. They also obtain cap space by letting them walk. In this scenario, the Isles still have a '23 1st and 2nd. Death sentence, c'mon!

For Barzal - I do not want to rehash our arguments - You know where I stand and I know where you stand. BUT in the chance that he struggles and the Isles decide they want to move on, that will only happen in the offseason and you can be sure there will be a market for the 25 year old RFA.

Hi SI,

Just curious why you think if Beau isn't playing well during the year and he gets traded, you feel that would lose the locker room. If he brings a decent return, wouldn't the players look at this as a business decision and understand management has to make moves sometimes that they feel is in the best interest of the team as a whole. Hope you're doing well as we enter into the end of summer and the beginning of fall sports season.

 

[SI]

I don’t say this to get likes from this board. And I’m well aware of what is going on with a new building and trying to sell tickets in our 50th anniversary season (which most of our whining fans aren’t renewing this season). However, if we come into the end of February with a record of 500 or below, how well received do YOU think the team will be by the fans? I guarantee you the “Lou Must Go” chants will start as soon as a losing streak reaches 3 games.

If the team is scuffling to make the playoffs again this year, UBS will be a ghost town in March and April.

If they are contending for a wildcard spot and there is an opportunity to get in the playoffs- they will NOT be sellers - NO matter what chants are happening.

 

[MJF]

If they are contending for a wildcard spot and there is an opportunity to get in the playoffs- they will NOT be sellers - NO matter what chants are happening.

I think Lou got the last TDL all wrong, misplaced his trust in an aging and disappointing group of forwards, and then doubled down on them by firing the coach and making no changes to that group. I hope Lou is right on this one.

Like I said, there’s some tough decisions that have to be made this season. Let’s see what ownership has the stomach for.

 

[SI]

Hi SI,

Just curious why you think if Beau isn't playing well during the year and he gets traded, you feel that would lose the locker room. If he brings a decent return, wouldn't the players look at this as a business decision and understand management has to make moves sometimes that they feel is in the best interest of the team as a whole. Hope you're doing well as we enter into the end of summer and the beginning of fall sports season.

Let me clarify - If Beau is not finding consistency (playing like he has the last 2 seasons - streaky and not finding that next level) AND the team is contending for one of those wild card spots then trading Beau for picks would send the wrong message to the locker room as they are giving up on the season. It’s business, but it is sending up the white flag.

IF Beau is traded for a similar player, then I can see that move happening. Say, a Beau for a Comtois or Beau for Pulijaarvi thing.

Does that make sense?

Thanks for the good wishes - same to you and yours

 

[Sparksrus3]

If the team is scuffling to make the playoffs again this year, UBS will be a ghost town in March and April.

Oh great , and I just pre paid the seasons parking in Mrs Johnsons driveway 3 blocks away

 

[SI]

Like I said, there’s some tough decisions that have to be made this season. Let’s see what ownership bas the stomach for.

Let’s see what Lou has the stomach for because it isn’t ownership making the decisions.

They will see this group through this season and reevaluate in June ‘23 unless the season goes wrong and they are out of it by February

 

[MJF]

Let’s see what Lou has the stomach for because it isn’t ownership making the decisions.

They will see this group through this season and reevaluate in June ‘23 unless the season goes wrong and they are out of it by February

Lou has to be re-signed after this season. Is he just rubber stamping his own contract?

Let’s see what Lou has the stomach for because it isn’t ownership making the decisions.

They will see this group through this season and reevaluate in June ‘23 unless the season goes wrong and they are out of it by February

It would be a bad business to wait until June 2023 to decide Lou’s future with the club with a deep draft coming up. I would hope ownership has a plan before the season ends.

 

[SI]

Lou has to be re-signed after this season. Is he just rubber stamping his own contract?


It would be a bad business to wait until June 2023 to decide Lou’s future with the club with a deep draft coming up. I would hope ownership has a plan before the season ends.

The 2023 draft will be run by Lou’s people - his scouts - even if they decide to give him the boot.

It’s all context - you can say if they are 500, but if they are 500 and in a wildcard spot - Lou is not getting fired that decision will be made in the summer - you can bet on that.

Look back over their last 10 years. That Cup was a one-off. You should want better than that.

I know that teams can catch lightning in a bottle and win a championship. Personally, I’d rather have the Penguins’ success or the Lightning’s success and always be in the conversation for a Cup, rather than “Let’s just get in because then we can make some noise.”

Looking back over there last 10 years -
1 SC win
1 conference final loss
3 round 2 playoffs loss
9 playoff appearances out of 10
Multiple 100+ seasons

I’d sign up for a decade like that!

 

[MJF]

The 2023 draft will be run by Lou’s people - his scouts - even if they decide to give him the boot.

It’s all context - you can say if they are 500, but if they are 500 and in a wildcard spot - Lou is not getting fired that decision will be made in the summer - you can bet on that.


Looking back over there last 10 years -
1 SC win
1 conference final loss
3 round 2 playoffs loss
9 playoff appearances out of 10
Multiple 100+ seasons

I’d sign up for a decade like that!

Wow. I’m sorry you feel that way. The Blues have been a mixed bag of results over 10 years that includes 3 first round exits, 3 2nd round exits and one year of not making the playoffs. This is the kind of result I’d like to be better than.

 

[denis5]

Regarding not trading Sorokin and Barzal in a rebuild, all well and good, but both are UFAs within two seasons and it might not be our choice. Money matters, but sometimes winning means more to a player, and if there's no prospect of that happening in the near future, both may decide they want to be elsewhere. We can not, repeat, can not, go through another JT fiasco.

 

[MJF]

Regarding not trading Sorokin and Barzal in a rebuild, all well and good, but both are UFAs within two seasons and it might not be our choice. Money matters, but sometimes winning means more to a player, and if there's no prospect of that happening in the near future, both may decide they want to be elsewhere. We can not, repeat, can not, go through another JT fiasco.

This is another scenario to be considered.

 

[The Real JT]

Regarding not trading Sorokin and Barzal in a rebuild, all well and good, but both are UFAs within two seasons and it might not be our choice. Money matters, but sometimes winning means more to a player, and if there's no prospect of that happening in the near future, both may decide they want to be elsewhere. We can not, repeat, can not, go through another JT fiasco.

Sorokin along with Pelech and Dobson are the only untouchables as of today. Assuming Barzal doesn’t have a breakout season, I agree he could be moved.

Without an alternative viable goalie of the future, I can’t see Sorokin being moved. Even if it means an overpayment, he stays barring an unforeseen down year.

 

[denis5]

Sorokin along with Pelech and Dobson are the only untouchables as of today. Assuming Barzal doesn’t have a breakout season, I agree he could be moved.

Without an alternative viable goalie of the future, I can’t see Sorokin being moved. Even if it means an overpayment, he stays barring an unforeseen down year.

He's going to be paid wherever he plays. If he decides he wants no part of being on a team with little chance of winning (and remember how hard it was to get him here in the first place when Snow was the GM), what are you going to do? At the end of the day, it's his choice, not ours. The only thing we can do is make the best of it.

Mind you, I don't want this -- it's just facing the reality of the situation.

 

[The Real JT]

He's going to be paid wherever he plays. If he decides he wants no part of being on a team with little chance of winning (and remember how hard it was to get him here in the first place when Snow was the GM), what are you going to do? At the end of the day, it's his choice, not ours. The only thing we can do is make the best of it.

Mind you, I don't want this -- it's just facing the reality of the situation.

The Tavares fiasco was unique.

Money talks and with another fellow Russian in the fold (Romanov) and the proximity to a sizable NY Russian population, I don’t see Sorokin leaving of his own free will. The cross town rivalry with Shesterkin also doesn’t hurt the Isles cause.

 

[Mike C]

Let me clarify - If Beau is not finding consistency (playing like he has the last 2 seasons - streaky and not finding that next level) AND the team is contending for one of those wild card spots then trading Beau for picks would send the wrong message to the locker room as they are giving up on the season. It’s business, but it is sending up the white flag.

IF Beau is traded for a similar player, then I can see that move happening. Say, a Beau for a Comtois or Beau for Pulijaarvi thing.

Does that make sense?

Thanks for the good wishes - same to you and yours

Makes sense buddy.

Had a great summer. Looking forward to some NHL and post season baseball!

 

[LeapOnOver]

I do. Waiting until the off-season would hamstring a future GM with Lou’s actions or inactions coming into a deep draft. And with this being the final year of Lou’s contract I can’t see ownership allowing him to operate once they are sure they are not bringing him back.


Lol.

I dropped out of Baruch College after 2 years. I knew how to read the landscape in 1982 and I still think I can today.

Sounds like something Lou would say...