Roster Building XXII: Too Many Forwards, Hopefully One Cup

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Jarvis was actually getting ice time with the Canes at 18, and Aho at 19.

Jarvis was 19 years, 7 months old when he made his Canes debut and turned 20 mid season his first year in Carolina. Aho had just turned 19 in late July his first year in Carolina and was 19 for the entire season.

As @Derailed75 stated, Svech was 18.

Necas was 20 when he had his first full season with Carolina and turned 21 half way through the season.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

It was a many years thing, I participated only in the last one. Some guys had made quite an impression on the previous years and were drafted high. @the halleJOKEL endeared himself with the Rongos and @MinJaBen 's metal shark is an all time winner.

I thought I remembered different years but didnt want to jump the gun - good times

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Looking ahead to next year’s FA class and the top 10 names available, I would be quite surprised if any one outside Tavares and Ehlers made it FA.

Rantanen, Crosby, and Draisaitl seems like no brainer extensions.
Benn could, but he probably takes a hometown discount.
Boeser probably stays
Sounds like konecny is staying
Giroux would be a heck of a risk
I doubt Nelson moves on from the Island.

Then we get into the overpaying for middle six players

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Looking ahead to next year’s FA class and the top 10 names available, I would be quite surprised if any one outside Tavares and Ehlers made it FA.

Rantanen, Crosby, and Draisaitl seems like no brainer extensions.
Benn could, but he probably takes a hometown discount.
Boeser probably stays
Sounds like konecny is staying
Giroux would be a heck of a risk
I doubt Nelson moves on from the Island.

Then we get into the overpaying for middle six players

Konecny feels like the best shot at a top forward. If not him, though, I bet the Canes go high-dollar/short-term with someone like Giroux or Nelson.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Konecny feels like the best shot at a top forward. If not him, though, I bet the Canes go high-dollar/short-term with someone like Giroux or Nelson.

Konecny would be the ideal pickup, but if we're apparently giving Jarvis $8 mil and Necas probably around that amount as well, there's no shot we'll meet Konecny's demands.

 

[bleedgreen]

Konecny is a good player but I don’t think he’s a great choice to be a high dollar acquisition for us. If it was two years ago it would’ve been a good fit.

Just because we tried to do it for Jake I don’t think we should bother assuming we’re going to do for all high dollar about to be ufa types. This still isn’t the way this team does things, Konecny just isn’t Jake level. There’s zero reason to think we’d offer more than the market would as well when the contract happens.

 

[HisIceness]

Flyers tv guy said something to a Philadelphia radio station that Konecy was asking $12 million but would likely get 9-10 million.

Pass. I like the player but his upcoming contract has bad potential for whoever pays up. If the front office couldn't get Jake (who was a great fit) to stay, I'm not sure why they'd take a chance on Konecy (who may or may not be a good fit).

I'd rather Philly pay him his $10 million and put themselves into a cap bind when the time comes to pay Michkov.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Konecny would be the ideal pickup, but if we're apparently giving Jarvis $8 mil and Necas probably around that amount as well, there's no shot we'll meet Konecny's demands.

Only if Necas gets signed for 8 years will he get over a 7M cap hit. Considering the rumored trade request, it's more likely to be a 1 year deal.

 

[spockBokk]

Only if Necas gets signed for 8 years will he get over a 7M cap hit. Considering the rumored trade request, it's more likely to be a 1 year deal.

While I think a 1yr deal is the most likely, I won’t be surprised if both sides go for a 2yr deal walking him to UFA. Both sides wouldn’t have to deal with arbitration again next year, and he’s likely more tradeable with an extra year locked in.

And who knows, he may excel in a larger role this season and be amenable to signing a longer term deal after 7/1 next summer. Personally, I think that’s the best outcome. I don’t see them getting fair value back in a hockey trade and the teams offering high end futures for him are not very attractive to him for the next 8yrs.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The Canes not making a larger offer than that to Sprong tells me that they really are trying to get the Necas camp to agree to a longer contract. The Canes have well-enough cap space to make that happen.

 

[bleedgreen]

I’m wondering about how much cap space we’re actually going to have. With Kuzy gone I figured we had enough to do whatever options work out with Necas and Jarvis and leave us a little cap room. If Fast gets LTIR which certainly seems likely we’ll have enough room to add a decent player if we want to. We could save it for later in the season but it does leave us open to be creative late this off season. We have too many forwards and plenty of depth dmen so not sure where another player would be viewed as needed. Maybe a higher level number 7 dman than Ryan and Stillman.

Due to depth you’d think we’d save it for later in case someone gets hurt, but if something pops up that we like this summer into preseason we’d probably have a shot at making it work.

 

[Lempo]

If Fast gets LTIR which certainly seems likely we’ll have enough room to add a decent player if we want to. We could save it for later in the season but it does leave us open to be creative late this off season.

Alas, you can't save cap space for the future if you have a guy on LTIR exception. You should be as close to the cap ceiling as possible to get the biggest cap benefit.

 

[Chan790]

While I think a 1yr deal is the most likely, I won’t be surprised if both sides go for a 2yr deal walking him to UFA. Both sides wouldn’t have to deal with arbitration again next year, and he’s likely more tradeable with an extra year locked in.

Counterintuitively, the opposite. He's probably less valuable and harder to trade on a 2 year deal. For the same reasons, Necas would likely prefer a 2 year deal from us, either through contract or arbitration. It'll make him more money because it hands him all the negotiating leverage on an extension. A contract walking him to UFA only benefits Necas, not us or any team we trade him to.

If he's traded on a one year deal, the acquiring team can negotiate an extension as soon as January and, because the Canes have never used team-elected arbitration, have the threat of team-elected arbitration for 2025-26 to get him to the table on an extension, retaining his rights to that final RFA year at much less on arbitration than he'd get for 2025-26 on an extension.

If he's traded on a two-year deal walking him to UFA, the acquiring team cannot negotiate an extension until the start of 2026 and won't have the arbitration threat, meaning they'll have to pay him a lot more money on an extension to stop him from testing UFA.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Alas, you can't save cap space for the future if you have a guy on LTIR exception. You should be as close to the cap ceiling as possible to get the biggest cap benefit.

If we can get as close as possible with 23 man roster, we could send a guy down and still gain space if our roster is lower than the adjusted cap limit

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

The Canes not making a larger offer than that to Sprong tells me that they really are trying to get the Necas camp to agree to a longer contract. The Canes have well-enough cap space to make that happen.

Or it would suggest that the bad locker room presence may be truthful and we don’t want to touch that.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Nice Walt Ruff article on Legault:

Canes See Legault As 'Ready For The Next Challenge' | Carolina Hurricanes

"His ability to play fast offensively, end plays off the rush, and then get up in the play, that’s exactly what we want of our defensemen."

www.nhl.com

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Nice Walt Ruff article on Legault:

Canes See Legault As 'Ready For The Next Challenge' | Carolina Hurricanes

"His ability to play fast offensively, end plays off the rush, and then get up in the play, that’s exactly what we want of our defensemen."

www.nhl.com

Rod must love this quote:

“It felt good. The whole year I felt like I was doing the little things right and the bounces just weren’t going my way, but in the second half everything seemed to drop," Legault said of his run. "It was a good second half, but I trusted the way I was playing (all along). I felt like I was playing the right way, and I felt like it paid off in the end.”

 

[EXTRAS]

Seeing all these estimates on the new upcoming contract for rantanen @ 12m x 8 years. Is 29 year old rantanen really worth 2m+ more than 27 year old Aho?

 

[robbieberns]

Seeing all these estimates on the new upcoming contract for rantanen @ 12m x 8 years. Is 29 year old rantanen really worth 2m+ more than 27 year old Aho?

Even if you were to argue the two were dead on evenly matched from a skill standpoint, Rantanen has four inches and forty pounds on Aho and that comes across when you see him play and be dominant in the offensive zone. Major contributor on a cup run as well.

Rantanen : Draisaitl :: MacKinnon : McDavid

Rantanen has 615 points in 570 games, 1.07 ppg

Aho has 557 in 598, .93 ppg

Not sure what more he could do to earn a contract like that, it’ll be ugly in the last couple of years i’m sure but it’s a no brained deal.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Seeing all these estimates on the new upcoming contract for rantanen @ 12m x 8 years. Is 29 year old rantanen really worth 2m+ more than 27 year old Aho?

Has Aho put up 50 goals or 100+ points?

 

[bleedgreen]

Rants is a better goal scorer and a stronger player. He can take the puck to the net with a guy hanging all over him. He’s produced bigger seasons and played well when it mattered. Not really a shock he’d get paid more than Aho, though Aho is maybe as good or better of an all around player who plays the most important position.

 

[robbieberns]

From what i’ve read Rantanen has been playing a decent amount of C and fairly competently since Kadri signed in Calgary. That certainly doesn’t hurt his case.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

From what i’ve read Rantanen has been playing a decent amount of C and fairly competently since Kadri signed in Calgary. That certainly doesn’t hurt his case.

The data from Natural Stat Trick and Moneypuck doesn't support that. He's played as a winger on MacKinnon's line way more than anything else (1931 minutes with, 586 without).

From Moneypuck it shows he's been on the wing mainly with Mackinnon as his C, but also Compher as his C the year before.

Last year's most common 5v5 lines with Rantanen in Colorado:
Drouin-Mackinnon-Rantanen: 485 minutes
Nichushkin-Mackinnon-Rantanen: 382 minutes
Lehkonen-Mackinnon-Rantanen: 161 minutes
Nichushkin-Mittelstadt-Rantanen: 32 minutes

Two seasons ago:
Lehkonen-Mackinnon-Rantanen: 324 minutes
Rodrigues-Mackinnon-Rantanen: 231 minutes
Rodrigues-Compher-Rantanen: 121 minutes
Nichushkin-Mackinnon-Rantanen: 108 minutes
Lehkonen-Compher-Rantanen: 96 minutes

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Has Aho put up 50 goals or 100+ points?

True, contracts are based on raw numbers so because of that, Rantanen will get a bigger contract. On top of that, he'll be signing it 1-2 years after Aho did in a rising cap environment. Also, as bleed said, he's more of a goal scorer and has bigger size.

It won't matter for the contract, but looking at Aho vs. Rantanen, a few factors come into play:

1) Aho has never played winger with talent like McKinnon (2700 min. all situations last 2 years) and Makar (2100 minutes all situations last 2 years).
2) Canes system also stresses more defense first than Colorado, who scored about 40 more goals than Carolina over the past 2 seasons.
3) Aho played 2255 EVTOI and 465 PP TOI the past 2 seasons (and 272 SHTOI) compared to 2942 EVTOI and 707 PPTOI for Rantanen., who doesn't PK.

• Canes don't get as many calls as Colorado so less PP time as a whole.
• Canes have a much more even distribution of TOI due to depth.
• Rantanen doesn't PK so gets more ES/PP TOI. That's a lot of extra offensive minutes for Rantanen.

4) Aho plays C with more defensive responsibilities than Rantanen who plays W and he kills penalties.

Even with that, Rantanen didn't really score at a much higher rate than Aho over the past 2 seasons:

Even Strength: 2.70 Point /60 for Rantanen vs. 2.74 for Aho
PP: 6.51 vs. 6.03 Points / 60

Rantanen just got a lot more time ES and on the PP than Aho did. Is he a better scorer than Aho? Yes. Would he put up the same numbers in Carolina used the same way as Aho with similar line mates? Extremely unlikely.

As I said though, for a contract, it won't matter, but when you look at all the factors and underlying numbers, I don't think the two are as far off as raw numbers would lead one to believe.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Rod must love this quote:

“It felt good. The whole year I felt like I was doing the little things right and the bounces just weren’t going my way, but in the second half everything seemed to drop," Legault said of his run. "It was a good second half, but I trusted the way I was playing (all along). I felt like I was playing the right way, and I felt like it paid off in the end.”

This guy sounds like the anticipated Pesce replacement in a few years. Whether that ever materializes, who knows, but thats exactly what his game sounds like.