Roster Building XX: How Many Patents Does Your GM Have?

[cptjeff]

but again the metric is compared to a replacement level player.

It's a percentile figure. 86% means he has a higher WAR than 86% of players in the league. 100% is McDavid, 0% is the worst player in the NHL, whoever that is. That stat says that Skinner is top 3-4 on an average 23 man roster. WITH his shitty defense taken into account.

Seriously, I can get if you don't think it's a meaningfully reliable stat, but you're just plain being stupid here.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

It's a percentile figure. 86% means he has a higher WAR than 86% of players in the league. 100% is McDavid, 0% is the worst player in the NHL, whoever that is. That stat says that Skinner is top 3-4 on an average 23 man roster. WITH his shitty defense taken into account.

Seriously, I can get if you don't think it's a meaningfully reliable stat, but you're just plain being stupid here.

im not being stupid. you are trying to argue a stats use inappropriately to make skinner look better than he really is. especially using a stat you call non reliable.

 

[Francis10]

2024-2025 4th line of:

Skinner - E. Staal - J. Williams

WHOS SAYS NO!?!?

/s

Edit: just so everyone is aware, I was totally being sarcastic.

 

[Brock Anton]

im not being stupid. you are trying to argue a stats use inappropriately to make skinner look better than he really is. especially using a stat you call non reliable.

Says the person who, using "stats", argued to the death that the PP wasn't the problem in the 2023 playoffs and that Freddie was not an issue this year.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Says the person who, using "stats", argued to the death that the PP wasn't the problem in the 2023 playoffs and that Freddie was not an issue this year.

yep, the numbers are still there

 

[cptjeff]

im not being stupid. you are trying to argue a stats use inappropriately to make skinner look better than he really is. especially using a stat you call non reliable.

That set of stats said that replacement level at defense, his is extremely offensively gifted and that far outweighs his defense in terms of overall impact on a game to make him one of the NHL's more effective players overall. Not the NHL's elite because that defense does drag him down, but good enough to be a top contributor to any team.

You are arguing that he is actively a net negative to his team, for which you have offered no actual evidence. And you have fundamentally failed to understand the basic premise of how percentiles work.

C'mon man, just slink off here and stop posting if you don't want to flat out admit you're wrong.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

That set of stats said that replacement level at defense, his is extremely offensively gifted and that far outweighs his defense in terms of overall impact on a game to make him one of the NHL's more effective players overall. Not the NHL's elite because that defense does drag him down, but good enough to be a top contributor to any team.

You are arguing that he is actively a net negative to his team, for which you have offered no actual evidence. And you have fundamentally failed to understand the basic premise of how percentiles work.

C'mon man, just slink off here and stop posting if you don't want to flat out admit you're wrong.

i explained how he was a negative like 8 posts ago. so slink on off and read, yea?

the correlation between high level and offense and his playing time shows you he isnt a top contributor on the team. also explained many posts ago.

WAR itself on the Jfresh cards put a much larger reliance on offensive numbers than defensive abilities. hence why guys like him and laine have larger WAR percentages. that doesn't mean they are in fact positive contributors to winning a game.

 

[cptjeff]

i explained how he was a negative like 8 posts ago. so sling on off and read, yea?

Except... the data that you either misunderstood or are not willing to actually grapple with shows he isn't a net negative. You decided he's a net negative first and then tried to discredit the data not by attacking the basic ideas of percentiles and saying that a stat designed to measure combined impact of offense and defense was not designed to measure the combined impact of offense and defense, and then some wharrgarbl about replacement level players and how since you're comparing to a replacement it can't possibly be compare against his peers or something. It was genuinely hard to parse your arguments at all.

Which is why I go back to your preexisting hate of Skinner. You're grasping at straws in order to rationalize your existing views, including some attempts that reject the basic concepts of statistics like percentiles. You've just decided he was and is bad, so you have to attack the evidence because the evidence doesn't support your views.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Except... the data that you either misunderstood or are not willing to actually grapple with shows he isn't a net negative. You decided he's a net negative first and then tried to discredit the data not by attacking the basic ideas of percentiles and saying that a stat designed to measure combined impact of offense and defense was not designed to measure the combined impact of offense and defense, and then some wharrgarbl about replacement level players and how since you're comparing to a replacement it can't possibly be compare against his peers or something. It was genuinely hard to parse your arguments at all.

Which is why I go back to your preexisting hate of Skinner. You're grasping at straws in order to rationalize your existing views, including some attempts that reject the basic concepts of statistics like percentiles. You've just decided he was and is bad, so you have to attack the evidence because the evidence doesn't support your views.

at the AAV a 50 goal scorer will demand, a negative. you are paying 50 goal a year price to gain nothing.

this was my entire argument before you tried to wrongfully argue about WAR and its representation. to make it worse you have been trying to defend a stat that you don't even believe is meaningful or correct. then it is me that is wrong or that doesnt understand.

its not my hate that fueling anything here, its your unwillingness to accept skinner is flawed.

but yea you win.

 

[NotOpie]

Have you noticed how many players have been disappearing into the player assistance program recently? Yes, the NHL has drug tested for a very long time, though they didn't used to care about recreational drugs, just the performance enhancing ones. That does seem to be changing.

Hey Jokey McJokeface....I should have used a . Me thinking it was obvious sarcasm might have been a mistake.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Skinner is what he's always been. A gifted, natural goal scorer, who often is selfish (as many goal scorers are), but isn't great defensively.

He was one of my favorite players when he was here, but I wasn't sad to see him go after that last season here and his upcoming UFA status.

My reason for not wanting him back is a mismatch in style, not against him personally. Could it work if he came back? Maybe. I'm just skeptical that after 14 seasons, he is going to change his stripes and play the style of hockey that the Canes play and the coach demands. Even if you disagree with that style, it is how they are going to play.

The last 3 seasons, 5v5, he was on the ice for 190 goals for and 160 goals against, so regardless of fancy stats, his team did better with him on the ice than off the ice.

EDIT: DELETE xGF% comment.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Skinner is what he's always been. A gifted, natural goal scorer, who often is selfish (as many goal scorers are), but isn't great defensively.

He was one of my favorite players when he was here, but I wasn't sad to see him go after that last season here and his upcoming UFA status.

My reason for not wanting him back is a mismatch in style, not against him personally. Could it work if he came back? Maybe. I'm just skeptical that after 14 seasons, he is going to change his stripes and play the style of hockey that the Canes play and the coach demands. Even if you disagree with that style, it is how they are going to play.

The last 3 seasons, 5v5, he was on the ice for 190 goals for and 160 goals against, so regardless of fancy stats, his team did better with him on the ice than off the ice. His xGF% was the best on the Sabres among forwards over that period.

What criteria did you use for xGF%? I have a couple of starters a head of him. He got lucky defensively as his xGF% was under 50%

 

[CandyCanes]

Necas to Nucks now unlikely.

 

[Unsustainable]

Necas to Nucks now unlikely.

that's lower than expected for aav

 

[bleedgreen]

I’m guessing us not wanting that contract is why we weren’t interested.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

What criteria did you use for xGF%? I have a couple of starters a head of him. He got lucky defensively as his xGF% was under 50%

Sorry, My mistake, that was ALL STRENGTHS (I forgot I switched from 5v5 on NST). Ignore what I wrote as it's screwed up and is flat out wrong.

 

[User13452]

Skjei will get 7 years and same aav or more.

 

[Chrispy]

I’m guessing us not wanting that contract is why we weren’t interested.

I’m guessing he will be worth that contract, but do they want to give effectively a 7 year UFA deal to a defenseman who has never played Rod’s system? Would be a risky move.

And there’s also the possibility that JR and Allvin again used trade talks as a cudgel in contract negotiations.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Sorry, My mistake, that was ALL STRENGTHS (I forgot I switched from 5v5 on NST). Ignore what I wrote as it's screwed up and is flat out wrong.

Well I mean it was just a couple of regular starters. Just slightly off. Nothing crazy.

On Hronek:
7.25 million per is a lot better than 8 per. It would be hard to give him that much here without playing in our system first and how he finished the year.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Advanced stats don’t like Hronek either

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803182436685324723

 

[Lempo]

Advanced stats don’t like Hronek either

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803182436685324723

Life has a funny way of sneaking up on you. And life has a funny, funny way of helping you out.

 

[ElmCityGuy]

Except... the data that you either misunderstood or are not willing to actually grapple with shows he isn't a net negative. You decided he's a net negative first and then tried to discredit the data not by attacking the basic ideas of percentiles and saying that a stat designed to measure combined impact of offense and defense was not designed to measure the combined impact of offense and defense, and then some wharrgarbl about replacement level players and how since you're comparing to a replacement it can't possibly be compare against his peers or something. It was genuinely hard to parse your arguments at all.

Which is why I go back to your preexisting hate of Skinner. You're grasping at straws in order to rationalize your existing views, including some attempts that reject the basic concepts of statistics like percentiles. You've just decided he was and is bad, so you have to attack the evidence because the evidence doesn't support your views.

I don't know enough about these stats to give an opinion but I am impressed to see "wharrgarbl " worked into a post.

Well done.

 

[Lempo]

I wasn't aware of the thing that is "wharrgarbl". Now I am. It is a bit sad that my life is genuinely fuller now that it was just moments ago.

 

[AD Skinner]

Life has a funny way of sneaking up on you. And life has a funny, funny way of helping you out.

It’s like 50 goals scored when all you need is defense

 

[Stickpucker]

It’s like 50 goals scored when all you need is defense

It's like a Lacko taco when all you need is a save.