Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVIII:

[True Blue]

What "lessons of Kaapo Kakko"? We have a future stud who is gonna dominate the league on our hands.

Claiming that Lafreniere would instantly be the second best wing on this team. That implies that he is instantly better than Kreider, which means that he is an instant 25-30 goal, 50ish point player.

The odds of that are incredibly low, reminding me how people were penciling Kakko to be that this year. Then reality set in that this was a ridiculous expectation to begin with.

Same with Lafreniere. Expecting him to come into the league and be an instant impact top line player is fairly assinine. And will lead to the same disappointment.

 

[True Blue]

I'm pretty much with you.... but I consider the 2OA (Byfield or Stutzle) an overwhelming offer.

Not speaking for the poster, but clearly you are not with him if you expect the Rangers to make the moves that you claim they should make.

 

[Leetch3]

i would think an amnesty buyout would hurt the Seattle expansion draft as teams would buyout an extra player they don’t want to protect followed by protecting a player they do want to protect.

(edit) - then again, the NHL could modify the rules and allow teams fewer to protect.

the bought out players would sign with other teams and then either be exposed or cause another player to be exposed on their new team. overall they is almost no impact to the expansion draft. not enough to worry about.

 

[mas0764]

Claiming that Lafreniere would instantly be the second best wing on this team. That implies that he is instantly better than Kreider, which means that he is an instant 25-30 goal, 50ish point player.

I think the poster said "at worst 4th best winger... at best, the 2nd best."

I kind of take that to mean, if he blows up immediately he'd be our second best behind Panarin.... as we expected Kakko to be this year (50-60 points). Long shot though.

If he doesn't, 4th best... I assume behind Panarin, Kreider, and Kakko or Buch.

Seems reasonable.

The odds of that are incredibly low

Low, but I wouldn't say "incredibly low."

You only have to go back to 2015 and 2016 to find guys like Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and Patrick Laine breaking 60 points as rookies.

Low enough you shouldn't be "counting" on it.

But remember, this is all in response to your "where would he play" hypothetical.

I can assure you.... well ahead of Lemieux, Gauthier, McKegg, Howden, etc. Probably a similar role to Kakko this year, but take off soon thereafter.

I'd actually say Kakko's underperformance this year is what should be considered a bit of an outlier. Prospects of his consideration usually perform a bit better as rookies. Think Svechnikov.

 

[mas0764]

Not speaking for the poster, but clearly you are not with him if you expect the Rangers to make the moves that you claim they should make.

He said he's fine with keeping all three unless someone blows them away. I agree. I'm not rushing to move DeAngelo.

But if someone blows me away ... and I would consider 2OA (Byfield or Stutzle) blowing me away or very close to it.... then I have to give it a very hard consideration.

I have no idea if he'd consider Byfield being "blown away," but I agree with his overall premise.

And I don't expect the Rangers to make any move like this if for no other reason than I don't expect the deal to be offered or remotely available (which should also tell you something). I'm merely advocating that they should consider it strongly if such a deal is available. I am NOT advocating, however, that they should be trading young players like DeAngelo for "futures" ie, uncertain draft picks who you don't know the prospect who will be available, or other young players who are years away.

Strome I might move in a good deal though.

 

[Leetch3]

I think the poster said "at worst 4th best winger... at best, the 2nd best."

I kind of take that to mean, if he blows up immediately he'd be our second best behind Panarin.... as we expected Kakko to be this year (50-60 points). Long shot though.

If he doesn't, 4th best... I assume behind Panarin, Kreider, and Kakko or Buch.

Seems reasonable.



Low, but I wouldn't say "incredibly low."

You only have to go back to 2015 and 2016 to find guys like Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and Patrick Laine breaking 60 points as rookies.

Low enough you shouldn't be "counting" on it.

But remember, this is all in response to your "where would he play" hypothetical.

I can assure you.... well ahead of Lemieux, Gauthier, McKegg, Howden, etc. Probably a similar role to Kakko this year, but take off soon thereafter.

I'd actually say Kakko's underperformance this year is what should be considered a bit of an outlier. Prospects of his consideration usually perform a bit better as rookies. Think Svechnikov.

after seeing how drastically wrong people were with their assumptions of kakko as a rookie i'm not sure that is reasonable at all...

 

[mas0764]

after seeing how drastically wrong people were with their assumptions of kakko as a rookie i'm not sure that is reasonable at all...

So you think it's not reasonable to expect Alexis Lafreniere to be better immediately than Howden, Gauthier, Lemieux, etc?

I think it's very reasonable. Not guaranteed, but very reasonable.

The last few years of drafts have produced guys in the top 2 or 3 who have come in right away and been very good. This year with Kakko and Hughes seems to be the outlier.

 

[NYSPORTS]

the bought out players would sign with other teams and then either be exposed or cause another player to be exposed on their new team. overall they is almost no impact to the expansion draft. not enough to worry about.

I’m not worried. Strategically, this would affect the pool IMO. Fortunately, the Rangers are young with time on our side.

 

[Leetch3]

I’m not worried. Strategically, this would affect the pool IMO. Fortunately, the Rangers are young with time on our side.

i can't speak on all other teams but I don't think it will have any impact on us. the amnesty buyout candidates for us are guys that we wouldn't be protecting anyway cause their contracts expire before the expansion draft.

 

[NYSPORTS]

i can't speak on all other teams but I don't think it will have any impact on us. the amnesty buyout candidates for us are guys that we wouldn't be protecting anyway cause their contracts expire before the expansion draft.

yeah, but I’m talking about the league. If teams have a bad contract they buy it out and protect a more valuable player. That affects the pool Seattle can choose from. It’s why I question if the league would allow an amnesty buyout. And those who use the buyout, perhaps they protect one less player.

 

[True Blue]

I think the poster said "at worst 4th best winger... at best, the 2nd best."

I kind of take that to mean, if he blows up immediately he'd be our second best behind Panarin.... as we expected Kakko to be this year (50-60 points). Long shot though.

If he doesn't, 4th best... I assume behind Panarin, Kreider, and Kakko or Buch.

Seems reasonable..

At best, he is the reincarnation of Gretzky. Not very likely though. At worst, which of Panarin, Kreider, Buch or Kakko is he better than immediately?

Oh, and very few but very loud people expected those numbers from Kakko. The more realistic ones did not.

Not a very reasonable assumption.

Low, but I wouldn't say "incredibly low."

You only have to go back to 2015 and 2016 to find guys like Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and Patrick Laine breaking 60 points as rookies.

Low enough you shouldn't be "counting" on it.

Low enough to be rare.

But remember, this is all in response to your "where would he play" hypothetical.

I can assure you.... well ahead of Lemieux, Gauthier, McKegg, Howden, etc. Probably a similar role to Kakko this year, but take off soon thereafter.

So where would he play? Quinn is not going to dole out ice time just for the sake of doling out ice time. Ahead of Lemieux or Gautchier? maybe. But only if he outplays them in camp. Which is far, far from a given. Ahead of McKegg? Great on the 4th line. Not where you want developing going on. But this is all hypothetical.

I'd actually say Kakko's underperformance this year is what should be considered a bit of an outlier. Prospects of his consideration usually perform a bit better as rookies. Think Svechnikov

Kakko did not under perform. He performed like 18 year olds usually do in the NHL. Think Barkov. Think Joe Thorton.

And I don't expect the Rangers to make any move like this if for no other reason than I don't expect the deal to be offered or remotely available (which should also tell you something). I'm merely advocating that they should consider it strongly if such a deal is available. I am NOT advocating, however, that they should be trading young players like DeAngelo for "futures" ie, uncertain draft picks who you don't know the prospect who will be available, or other young players who are years away.

I do not expect the Rangers to make a move like this because Gorton is not looking to make a move like this. That should also tell you something.

You absolutely are advocating trading DeAngelo for futures. You are advocating trading him for drafted well thought of prospects. Be they well regarded or not, that is still "futures".

Strome I might move in a good deal though.

Is it possible? Sure. Market clearing rate for everything. Probable? I would say no. He was trending to being a 70 point player on a line with Panarin and allows the coaching staff to deploy ZBad and Kreider on a different line. I think that you should get used to the idea that you will be seeing Strome back on a multiple year deal.

 

[mas0764]

Oh, and very few but very loud people expected those numbers from Kakko. The more realistic ones did not.

I don't think that's remotely true.

I remember a pre season poll and the overwhelming selection for Kakko was like 50 points I think.

Kakko did not under perform. He performed like 18 year olds usually do in the NHL. Think Barkov. Think Joe Thorton.

The Thornton comparison is going back quite a long time. I don't think top prospects generally require that much seasoning or projection anymore. The league has changed and young kids can dominate it like never before... this is one of the reasons why getting a Byfield or Lafreniere is not the risk you are making it seem.

2015 - Had McDavid, Eichel, both produced at high levels (McDavid - ppg pace, Eichel, 59 points)
2016 - Had Matthews and Laine both produce 64 points or more.
2017 - Hischier scored 52 points as a rookie. Nolan Patrick was a bust- so far, but right behind him, at 5, Pettersson scored 66 just one year after being drafted.
2018 - Dahlin and Svechnikov both had very good rookie campaigns (44 points as a defender, 37 points as a winger, respectively).

Guys in the top 2 or even top 5 are easier to project to quick success than ever.

 

[True Blue]

I don't think that's remotely true.

I remember a pre season poll and the overwhelming selection for Kakko was like 50 points I think.

Not a very reasonable assumption.

That is completley true. No one that had the least bit of thought with reality thought thtat Kakko was going to do that. I recall the debates quite well.

Completely unrealistic.

The Thornton comparison is going back quite a long time. I don't think top prospects generally require that much seasoning or projection anymore. The league has changed and young kids can dominate it like never before... this is one of the reasons why getting a Byfield or Lafreniere is not the risk you are making it seem.

Draft pick are draft picks for a reason.

2015 - Had McDavid, Eichel, both produced at high levels (McDavid - ppg pace, Eichel, 59 points)
2016 - Had Matthews and Laine both produce 64 points or more.
2017 - Hischier scored 52 points as a rookie. Nolan Patrick was a bust- so far, but right behind him, at 5, Pettersson scored 66 just one year after being drafted.
2018 - Dahlin and Svechnikov both had very good rookie campaigns (44 points as a defender, 37 points as a winger, respectively).

Guys in the top 2 or even top 5 are easier to project to quick success than ever

Fine. Let's look at the most recent 2019 draft. Or the 2012 draft. Or the 2013 draft. Or the 2014 draft. Look at how many teenagers have played in the NHL in history and then look at what the likelihood of a 50 point season is. And at last check, 37 points is quite a bit away from 50.

 

[Zibanejbread]

 

[mas0764]

Fine. Let's look at the most recent 2019 draft. Or the 2012 draft. Or the 2013 draft. Or the 2014 draft. Look at how many teenagers have played in the NHL in history and then look at what the likelihood of a 50 point season is. And at last check, 37 points is quite a bit away from 50.

Just saying, the trends are that these kids are ready to contibute way earlier.

Even Kakko and Hughes at what, 23 points this year over 66 games, are far and away ahead of players from earlier decades. They are down in comparison to 15, 16, etc, but overall there's a significant upward trend since the middle of the decade.

 

[True Blue]

Just saying, the trends are that these kids are ready to contibute way earlier.

Even Kakko and Hughes at what, 23 points this year over 66 games, are far and away ahead of players from earlier decades. They are down in comparison to 15, 16, etc, but overall there's a significant upward trend since the middle of the decade.

Or you just had a few years of aberrations which are the exceptions and far and away from the rule.

 

[QJL]

He would be instantly better than Kreider, making him for an instant impact top line wing?

How the lessons of Kappo Kakko are never learned.....

Kakko isn’t and wasn’t even close to Lafreniere level as a prospect. This is the best forward entering the draft since Matthews, maybe McDavid. He will be a top 6 forward out of the gate. I wouldn’t predict a more impactful season than Kreider but I wouldn’t be surprised. I expect a similar contribution to Buchnevich in Year 1.

 

[True Blue]

Kakko isn’t and wasn’t even close to Lafreniere level as a prospect. This is the best forward entering the draft since Matthews, maybe McDavid. He will be a top 6 forward out of the gate. I wouldn’t predict a more impactful season than Kreider but I wouldn’t be surprised. I expect a similar contribution to Buchnevich in Year 1.

Umm....Lafreniere is a great prospect, but you are making him out to be generational, which is nothing that I heard/read associated with him.

Considering that generational players come along once in a generation, you will forgive me while I will not predict or expect him to be an instant top line player in his first year.

 

[QJL]

Umm....Lafreniere is a great prospect, but you are making him out to be generational, which is nothing that I heard/read associated with him.

Considering that generational players come along once in a generation, you will forgive me while I will not predict or expect him to be an instant top line player in his first year.

I don’t think Lafreniere is generational at all.

I think he’s the next tier, with Tavares/Stamkos/Kane/Mackinnon/Eichel/Matthews. That comparison on prospect level appears to be popular opinion at this point.

Look at all 6 of those players. Every one isn’t generational and you can argue every one of them was better than Buchnevich their rookie season, a few comparable or better than Kreider.

I don’t know what to tell you if you think you have to be generational to be a first line player in your rookie year.

 

[mas0764]

I don't think Lafreniere is on McDavid's level.... that's like Crosby-Gretzky territory.

But certainly I could see him being on par with Matthews/Laine. That's not generational at all.

 

[bobbop]

I wonder if that number of amnesty buyouts would have to be negotiated with the NHLPA? I'm not sure the PA would be happy if teams were able to buyout an unlimited number of players, even if they players would still get the standard buyout pay (or i could be totally thinking of this the wrong way).

If it was unlimited the Rangers would free up the contracts of Staal and Lundqvist, possibly Smith as well. That would be $14 to $18.5MM in freed up space.

In hindsight, the Rangers could have moved Skjei in a trade that wasnt in futures, but the Rangers could have had that thought process regardless of their cap situation.

Buyouts would definitely have to be negotiated with NHLPA but amnesty buyouts, with the teams eating the contract and no cap implications have benefits for both sides. Players can usually recoup the money they lose and teams clear contracts from the books leaving more $ to spend. It's a pretty clever idea.

 

[True Blue]

I don’t think Lafreniere is generational at all.

I think he’s the next tier, with Tavares/Stamkos/Kane/Mackinnon/Eichel/Matthews. That comparison on prospect level appears to be popular opinion at this point.

Look at all 6 of those players. Every one isn’t generational and you can argue every one of them was better than Buchnevich their rookie season, a few comparable or better than Kreider.

I don’t know what to tell you if you think you have to be generational to be a first line player in your rookie year.

He could be on that level. I have not heard that comparison. In any case, I doubt anyone would put money on him having the type of seasons that those players had. Th e players are among the best in the league. It is a bit early to align him with them.

As for generational, I thought you compared him to McDavid. If I misread, that is my bad. But in any case, the money is against him putting up top line numbers in his first year.

 

[Edge]

Gov. of PA just closed all schools. Looks like I'll be spending time with the kids

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

So what would the Rangers do with an extra $18MM in cap space if they could amnesty buyout Lundqvist, Staal and Smith?

Obviously re-sign ADA longer term and being Fast back at sub $3MM.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

So what would the Rangers do with an extra $18MM in cap space if they could amnesty buyout Lundqvist, Staal and Smith?

Obviously re-sign ADA longer term and being Fast back at sub $3MM.

Scare the shit out of the rest of the league.

Outside of Colorado, is anyone in the league set up for sustainable success better than the Rangers? Add open space to the mix and they'll use it to upgrade where they need it.