Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[Ghost of jas]

All jokes aside there is ZERO chance the rangers are going to bring him back if they don’t believe he is healthy. They aren’t going to risk him long term. They would love to make the playoffs but if it was that much of a priority Brady Skjei would still be here

It is a priority...that's why he was traded to a team the Rangers are competing against for a spot.



I'll be here all week.

 

[kovazub94]

Here are Deangelo, Fox and Trouba's 5v5 numbers against the top 25 scorers in the league (minus Zibs and Panarin, of course)

	TOI	TOI %	CF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	Off. Zone Start %	Off. Zone Faceoff %
TDA	211.85	0.27	44.74%	49.54%	48.00%	44.34%	53.45%	49.19%
Fox	221.22	0.29	49.21%	48.43%	61.54%	44.53%	37.70%	42.54%
Trouba	338.08	0.44	40.35%	42.12%	38.24%	41.71%	47.83%	42.02%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Trouba leads all 3 in TOI (as he logically would, playing on the top pair) while Fox and Deangelo combined have played more against top competition than Trouba, again as they logically would.

Fox has the best partner by far (Lindgren's youth is no longer the blame of our bad numbers, yay) so Trouba (who spent most of his minutes with Skjei but also played a lot with Hajek) and Deangelo (who spent most of his minutes with Staal and some with Hajek) can duke it out over who had the worst partner.

Fox has the most defensive zone starts, Trouba is closer to Deangelo than he is to Fox. The difference in defensive zone FOs is negligible between Trouba and Fox. Deangelo has the least but still has more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive zone faceoffs.

That is about as much context as I can provide.

So its pretty obvious that Fox and Deangelo dont have better numbers than Trouba because of quality of competition, otherwise their numbers against the top competition would be worse or at least comparable to Trouba's. Trouba's numbers are worse, often significantly worse.

Its also obvious that having a bad partner brings Trouba's numbers down but its not a crippling factor or else Deangelo's numbers would be much, much worse.

And its obvious that even if you are "sheltered" you play a lot in all 3 zones because that is just how hockey works.

So why is Trouba struggling? My opinion is that Trouba is not, and has never really been, very good defensively. He is a guy who has value pretty much exclusively due to his offense and that is probably never going to change. Or there is the other possibility is that his 25-26 year old body is worn down from playing 22 minutes a game and PKing and the mental anguish of being the leading the defense or something. Maybe its both.

Now you can argue the numbers relevance ("Playing against top competition does not prove that they play against top competition") or you can dismiss them ("My guy still tells me that Trouba plays all the tough minutes") or you can post a picture of a middle finger or something. But please for the love of God please don't dissect my post asking for any more context without at least providing something of your own. Please.

Completely disagree with some of your conclusions. Specifically as @True Blue noted you’re extrapolating that with an increased exposure to high end competition (to match Trouba’s expose for apples to apples comparison) ADA and Fox’s numbers will remain unchanged. And increased it must because your numbers essentially show that for every 2 shifts by either Fox or ADA Trouba has 3! That’s a lot.

You’re also understating the impact of Lindgren as the best partner has on Fox’s stats in comparison to the other two. Give ADA and Trouba partners who complement their game and then we can compare stats.

 

[bl02]

Zib - Eichel 1-2 punch come onnnnnnn

No thanks. Rather not tear down this team that actually is playing like a team. We have two legit superstars when we really didn’t have any few years back. Now it’s about growing the young players and building around them. Plus would anyone be surprised if Eichel gets another coach jettisoned?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yeah honestly guys we don't really need a center of that caliber.

What would it take to get Sam Reinhardt though? Thats a guy I would love to have slotted in at 2C.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Don’t think 8 x $6.5MM is on the table from Tony’s POV. My sense is he thinks he can get close to Karlsson money and wants to do it sooner rather than later.

Not
A
Chance

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Not
A
Chance

Again, sorry if I was unclear, but my point was that I doubt Tony would be amenable to the originally proposed 8 x $6.5MM, and would instead prefer a shorter deal this summer, because he thinks thereafter (when presumably, in his mind, he’ll have multiple 70+ point seasons under his belt) he will then be able to cash in for the really big money.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

All jokes aside there is ZERO chance the rangers are going to bring him back if they don’t believe he is healthy. They aren’t going to risk him long term. They would love to make the playoffs but if it was that much of a priority Brady Skjei would still be here

I think that trade shows how little the team valued having Skjei on the roster.

They were comfortable with Brendan Smith filling in for a playoff stretch run...that should tell you everything you need to know. Gorton could have waited until the offseason if he really wanted to.

 

[smoneil]

As intriguing as a Eichel-Zibanejad one two punch would be, I'm not sure if overloading the center position would be the way to go, and that's well before we talk about what NYR would have to cough up.

DeAngelo, Our 1st this year, Miller, Georgiev, and Strome could be a possible ask.

They just had a thread on this on the trade boards. Buffalo fans were laughing at offers that included ALL of: Fox, DeAngelo, both 2020 firsts, Shesterkin and Chytil. They legitimately think that if Eichel forces the issue and demands a trade, that they will be getting an entire farm system in return AND a comparable center.

They also expressed their view that Panarin and Zib are "not even close" to being as valuable as Eichel.

It was...an interesting read.

 

[Ola]

Here are Deangelo, Fox and Trouba's 5v5 numbers against the top 25 scorers in the league (minus Zibs and Panarin, of course)

	TOI	TOI %	CF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	Off. Zone Start %	Off. Zone Faceoff %
TDA	211.85	0.27	44.74%	49.54%	48.00%	44.34%	53.45%	49.19%
Fox	221.22	0.29	49.21%	48.43%	61.54%	44.53%	37.70%	42.54%
Trouba	338.08	0.44	40.35%	42.12%	38.24%	41.71%	47.83%	42.02%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Trouba leads all 3 in TOI (as he logically would, playing on the top pair) while Fox and Deangelo combined have played more against top competition than Trouba, again as they logically would.

Fox has the best partner by far (Lindgren's youth is no longer the blame of our bad numbers, yay) so Trouba (who spent most of his minutes with Skjei but also played a lot with Hajek) and Deangelo (who spent most of his minutes with Staal and some with Hajek) can duke it out over who had the worst partner.

Fox has the most defensive zone starts, Trouba is closer to Deangelo than he is to Fox. The difference in defensive zone FOs is negligible between Trouba and Fox. Deangelo has the least but still has more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive zone faceoffs.

That is about as much context as I can provide.

So its pretty obvious that Fox and Deangelo dont have better numbers than Trouba because of quality of competition, otherwise their numbers against the top competition would be worse or at least comparable to Trouba's. Trouba's numbers are worse, often significantly worse.

Its also obvious that having a bad partner brings Trouba's numbers down but its not a crippling factor or else Deangelo's numbers would be much, much worse.

And its obvious that even if you are "sheltered" you play a lot in all 3 zones because that is just how hockey works.

So why is Trouba struggling? My opinion is that Trouba is not, and has never really been, very good defensively. He is a guy who has value pretty much exclusively due to his offense and that is probably never going to change. Or there is the other possibility is that his 25-26 year old body is worn down from playing 22 minutes a game and PKing and the mental anguish of being the leading the defense or something. Maybe its both.

Now you can argue the numbers relevance ("Playing against top competition does not prove that they play against top competition") or you can dismiss them ("My guy still tells me that Trouba plays all the tough minutes") or you can post a picture of a middle finger or something. But please for the love of God please don't dissect my post asking for any more context without at least providing something of your own. Please.

Good post!!

I have many objections of the ‘my gut tells me’ variety. And a big part of that feeling is based on phenomens that wouldn’t exist if the numbers held up (like a player’s Corsi changing fundamentally with his usage, when changing teams etc). You also have Corsi being very influenced by the ‘team’. It simply matters more what team you play for and in what role than who you are (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...re-are-better-stats-available/?outputType=amp). Without having any real facts to support it, I am also very convinced that there are certain ‘Killer Shifts’ that only the top shut down guys experience that the stats don’t manage to adjust for (the impact could be pretty big) AND I am also convinced that there are a lot of noise in the QoO data (line changes overlaps pretty significantly).

But I am not going to go into these things in detail, I’ve learned that nobody understands what I write or bothers to read it lol.

However, one thing would be interesting (to check out for my self if nothing else). How would this table look for other teams? Is it always the D that is used the most against the top players that do the best job against them? Which site did you use to single out their stats against the top 20?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

They just had a thread on this on the trade boards. Buffalo fans were laughing at offers that included ALL of: Fox, DeAngelo, both 2020 firsts, Shesterkin and Chytil. They legitimately think that if Eichel forces the issue and demands a trade, that they will be getting an entire farm system in return AND a comparable center.

They also expressed their view that Panarin and Zib are "not even close" to being as valuable as Eichel.

It was...an interesting read.

Those fans are idiots.

 

[haohmaru]

They just had a thread on this on the trade boards. Buffalo fans were laughing at offers that included ALL of: Fox, DeAngelo, both 2020 firsts, Shesterkin and Chytil. They legitimately think that if Eichel forces the issue and demands a trade, that they will be getting an entire farm system in return AND a comparable center.

They also expressed their view that Panarin and Zib are "not even close" to being as valuable as Eichel.

It was...an interesting read.

That's why I never venture into the dark side of HFB.

I like my little Hobbit hole in the Shire that is NYR HFB.

 

[haohmaru]

I think that trade shows how little the team valued having Skjei on the roster.

They were comfortable with Brendan Smith filling in for a playoff stretch run...that should tell you everything you need to know. Gorton could have waited until the offseason if he really wanted to.

Skjei had... a good year here. Then, he had some years that never measured up to, or exceeded, that year.

Wish him well, but I don't miss him at all. Kinda happy, too, for Smith that he gets another shot on D and is actually performing pretty well since the trade.

 

[kovazub94]

That's why I never venture into the dark side of HFB.

I like my little Hobbit hole in the Shire that is NYR HFB.

Even NYR HFB sometimes feels like Fangorn ran on by orcs.

 

[egelband]

Trade demand incoming.

Lias for Jack.

Weak return, tbf.

Jack+a first?

 

[egelband]

I would say, re ADA, I doubt he gets paid more than Kreider. I know it’s apples-and-oranges to an extent. But we all saw how hard-fought that deal was. I doubt the Rangers are going over that for ADA. Just a hunch.

 

[pld459666]

What potential backups do you see that would do better here than Henke?

Right now, there are alot of goalies out there that would be better back up options

I do not think Hank is even decent right now.

It sucks to say it, but the man is cooked

 

[pld459666]

Neither did Tom Poti, who led the Rangers in blocked shots every season it was recorded.

Blocked shots.....with his purse

 

[NYSPORTS]

What’s with all the Eichel talk?

 

[pld459666]

As intriguing as a Eichel-Zibanejad one two punch would be, I'm not sure if overloading the center position would be the way to go, and that's well before we talk about what NYR would have to cough up.

DeAngelo, Our 1st this year, Miller, Georgiev, and Strome could be a possible ask.

If that's the ask, I trip over my self saying yes.

 

[NYSPORTS]

They just had a thread on this on the trade boards. Buffalo fans were laughing at offers that included ALL of: Fox, DeAngelo, both 2020 firsts, Shesterkin and Chytil.

the league is better off having the Rangers make the playoffs while it’s better if the Rangers miss the playoffs IMO. Nobody wants the Rangers adding more talented youth.

Not sure where Ranger fan urgency to win now is coming from. We signed Kreider so now we need to trade for a Superstar? As if 24 mon rebuild was enough for us lol. The patience is non-existent with the cap ramification not even on the radar.

Draft a center or trade for an inexpensive center with all the inexpensive prospects we have should be the plan IMO.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

What’s with all the Eichel talk?

Absolutely nothing to it imo

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

What’s with all the Eichel talk?

People are speculating again because he deleted his twitter account.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

I think that trade shows how little the team valued having Skjei on the roster.

They were comfortable with Brendan Smith filling in for a playoff stretch run...that should tell you everything you need to know. Gorton could have waited until the offseason if he really wanted to.

0 chance of a 1st round pick. He's a decent #4 and they knew it... the value tipped the scale... I like digits, they hardcore...

 

[NYSPORTS]

People are speculating again because he deleted his twitter account.

lol, really? My gosh

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

the league is better off having the Rangers make the playoffs while it’s better if the Rangers miss the playoffs IMO. Nobody wants the Rangers adding more talented youth.

Not sure where Ranger fan urgency to win now is coming from. We signed Kreider so now we need to trade for a Superstar? As if 24 mon rebuild was enough for us lol. The patience is non-existent with the cap ramification not even on the radar.

Draft a center or trade for an inexpensive center with all the inexpensive prospects we have should be the plan IMO.

Since '06, we've see n this to be true--the question isn't if but when will you have problems... it"s something a GM has to weigh out more carefully than Gorton has. BUT, NY is all about instant gratification as much as they all purport to be so excited about the season. Really, it's one of those rare seasons contending teams pray for, but one that can, often does, spoil a rookie or 2nd year player. Good with the bad, he's got a decent frame of mind, makes wise moves (mostly), and he grinds.

But I'm just a fan, my thinking changes a lot..