I've looked at the cap, the major issue is next year. There's ways around it without moving Kreider and keeping the main performers.
I know there's some PTSD going on with Girardi, Staal, Shattenkirk etc... but why are we against signing good players because of what may happen in 2025?
What vet would be added? We're stretched thin in that department already.. Losing Kreider and Fast further depletes that. Strome? Some would have traded him already. The poor performers are gone soon, .ie Smith and Staal. HL retires or is traded.. Who's left? Are we trading for a vet presence or signing UFAs?
Either way, I'm fine with whatever happens but I see it as a greater risk to trade Kreider than to keep him.
Fast and Skjei would be the ones I move this TDL. Strome in a year or 2, for 'cap-reasons' and it's assuming he has larger demands.
Fast is a good performer, when used properly, leads by example but is not worth UFA money.
Skjei is an underperformer and does not lead.
Keeping Kreider and Strome for the foreseeable ( 1-2 years) future would be my plan.
Kreider performs and leads and is well worth $6ish M.
Strome performs and leads and is controllable.
IMO The 'lazy way' as you mentioned would be to just get rid of Kreider.
edit - further elaborated
I'd like to dive deeper into the first point of your first post, which you start to address in the second post.
We have $23.8m committed to forward next year so far. Let's say Kreider gets $6.2 for the sake of round numbers, but it won't happen. Pepe gets $2.5, the replacements for Fast and McKegg are $2m total. Let's put a pin in Strome for now. $34.5m for forwards.
Defense is at $35.7 with smith and staal on cap friendly. ADA needs a raise, lets say $5m. $40.7m.
Goalies are at $9.4 with Georgiev need a deal. Let's say $3m but that's generous with arb rights and probably no desire to stay in a 3 goalie system. $12.4m.
Dead cap is $7.5m. Plus the current salary of $85.5m. What is the cap next year? $80m. That is $13m over. What about Strome? Another $5m, to be generous to the crowd that thinks it's easier to keep Chris.
Buyout Staal saves $2.1, Smith $1.7, Lundqvist $3. Not even $6m. Drop Skjei and replace him with Hajek, saves you less than $5. Boot Buchnevich, that's $3.25. There, cap compliant. You have to add Rykov or K. Miller for Staal's spot. DiGuisseppi and Gauthier and Kakko platoon for Buch. And I'm still being generous because the Skjei and Buch trades didn't return any salary.
Top 6 is ok, the defense is skating circles because the left leg is amputated. Barely cap space, if the rookies hit bonuses we bleed into the following year with more dead cap from the new buy outs. So playoffs are meh, I think that's a worse team than this year.
I don't think its as cut and dry, or as easy as many imply.