Speculation: Roster building thread XXIII: Heading into doldrum days and All Star break

[Oscar Lindberg]

I hate to say it but we're two years into this rebuilding process, and people don't have the stomach to continue to sell off when it's the path forward

And selling off is not going to be made in a vacuum, it's having the ability to have pieces so you can make other moves.

Panarin has been nothing short of amazing for this team, but him being here has really screwed with the perception of how things need to go

to be honest I don’t think the rangers FO consider us rebuilding anymore. Once they signed Panarin and Trouba to massive deals I felt like that was them telling us that they want to win now

JD's comments a couple weeks ago when he talked about selling at the deadline would say otherwise

 

[Edge]

A 5 year deal for a 29 year old is a lot easier to swallow than a 7 year deal. Ask yourself though, why would Kreider short change himself by doing that?

Is it possible? Sure. Backstrom signed a 5 year deal to stay in Washington. I simply don’t see CK doing the same, but I could be wrong.

In addition to the term, I also don’t feel comfortable with the price. I don’t see CK as a 7m player.

I also think that the more Kreider comes down, the more the likelihood increases.

If he wants to sign for 6x5, I think his odds go up a lot. If he's looking at 7x7, those odds go down.

My gut tells me that if he wasn't looking at 7x7, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation because he would've already signed.

But the player that the the pro-signing crowd is presenting, certainly sounds like a 7x7 player. I would say Kreider's camp knows this, and also knows that this is his last big contract, and that hitting free agency in five years instead of 6 or 7, does not do him any favors.

So how many favors is Kreider's camp going to be willing to give the Rangers --- especially when they just shelled out $20 million for two guys last year. Why shouldn't he try to get every penny and every year? Why should he take one less year, let alone two? Why should he leave a million dollars a year on the table.

Is he willing to leave what could amount to 8 digits on the table to come back?

I don't know.

But how many people hoping he does would make that same decision? I'm sure there are some, but I'm sure there are a lot of others who would have a very hard time turning down 8 figures for the love of an employer. That's a really tall ask.

 

[bobbop]

A couple of days ago I started a post (but didn't post it), on how Buch is a young 40-50 pt second liner. Yes, he needs to improve, especially defensively, but he's not a bad player. It's too bad that a lot of people were projecting him to be a 70-80 point player (I remember those posts) so now he's a bust or disappointing. Like you say, not everyone can be a first line player. The question is he a core player going forward? Probably not, but not totally expendable either.

All this CK talk (and I love the guy) has been reminding me of Zucc, too. I would guess that Gorton is probably 80-90% sure about trading him. There is so much energy spent here discussing whether we should trade him or re-sin him. Personally I think it's a moot point. I could be wrong, but it feels like Zucc and Hayes all over again.

We won't be able to replace him right away, but the team will move forward anyway. The goal may not be to replace him right away. Gorton's goal will be to build the team for the long run with the cap in mind.

Buchnevich has a lot of good moments defensively. I wish he would shoot the puck more. In different games he has different deficiencies.

In a way, he reminds me of Bobby Hill. As Hank would say; “There’s something wrong with that boy”.

 

[NYSPORTS]

to be honest I don’t think the rangers FO consider us rebuilding anymore. Once they signed Panarin and Trouba to massive deals I felt like that was them telling us that they want to win now

I don’t think so. I think they looked at the FA market a year ahead and felt there was nobody like Panerin going to be available while they stole Trouba who was going to walk and greatly benefited from Fox who wanted to play here.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

But we're kind of arguing it both ways at times, no?

We don't want to be in a perpetual rebuild, and yet we're wondering why we can't just move guys like Buch for picks and prospects.

That's not accurate. It's more about moving Buch to keep Kreider. Maybe that's not how they see it which is fine. No one here knows how they see it.

But it's more fun talking about this than it is talking about Anderson asking for a trade or Hank waiving his NMC.

 

[RGY]

But we're kind of arguing it both ways at times, no?

We don't want to be in a perpetual rebuild, and yet we're wondering why we can't just move guys like Buch for picks and prospects.

I dont want to move Buch for picks/prospects. Younger cost controlled players for depth. Now if those things dont line up with one team, you flip the assets for that desired return somewhere else. Or you trade Buchnevich to a team for a similarly aged player, whether it be forward or defense, but offers a different player type. Plays a different style of game than what he did or than Skjei, and then you slot Skjei down or move him.

 

[Savant]

They are still buyers imo.

I don’t agree. But it depends how severe it is. Broken fibula is not the best news. He carries that teams Power Play he isn’t really a replaceable asset.

 

[NYSPORTS]

I hate to say it but we're two years into this rebuilding process, and people don't have the stomach to continue to sell off when it's the path forward

Bingo

 

[FIRE DRURY]

You keep saying this and you're wrong. I don't give a **** about chess. This isn't about this year or next, this about the next 5 years. It's about keeping what works and moving what doesn't. In five years Panarin is 34, Zib is 31, guys get old quick. You keep waiting for this magical window to open. There isn't one. Every season is different. And Buch will never be as good as Kreider, ever.

Up until now, you’ve never mentioned any interest in the future. Your whole MO has been you whining about how moving Kreider hurts the lineup this and next season.

Speaking of Zbad, he’s going to cost 10M+ to retain. ADA is going to cost probably 6M+. What about Fox? Kakko? Chytil? We have 8m tied up in Trouba. Shesty/Geo will need raises.

In the delusional world you live in there’s no such thing as a salary cap. In reality though, there is and committing potentially 50M to Kreider means you’re probably going to be forced to move a younger and likely better player because of the commitment you made to CK 3 years ago.

This isn’t about Buch or Kreider. They play different positions. I was just highlighting that despite CK’s hot streak and Buch’s cold streak, there’s only a 6 point difference between them.

I’ll stick to checkers analogies since you passionately hate chess for some reason.

 

[Savant]

They actually might buy even more. He's not done for the season and there is no reason to think they can't stay in it in the East. I'd think they add a scorer and a depth d man.

Not to mention, but this actually opens a spot for one of their younger D in the minors. One thing we know if that Carolina is brimming with defense and defensive prospects. They'll be fine.

I don’t agree but you are entitled to your opinion. Their power play crumbles without them and their winning % in the metro is .300

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I hate to say it but we're two years into this rebuilding process, and people don't have the stomach to continue to sell off when it's the path forward

And selling off is not going to be made in a vacuum, it's having the ability to have pieces so you can make other moves.

Panarin has been nothing short of amazing for this team, but him being here has really screwed with the perception of how things need to go


JD's comments a couple weeks ago when he talked about selling at the deadline would say otherwise

Not having the stomach for the rebuild, that been going on for more than two years, isn't accurate. It's about wanting to keep a player who some feel can be part of the next run.

 

[bobbop]

No one on the board is a bigger cheerleader for Kreider than me.

But as much as I want him to stay, I wouldn’t be comfortable with 7 X $7MM.

There is going to have to be a hometown discount of some kind, probably term.

I’ve got to think he knows this. It’s going to be his decision — take the discount or give me your no trade list. Probably happens during the upcoming schedule break.

 

[Savant]

i don’t see them throwing in the towel

I mean they aren’t going to sell either. They will give the minutes to TVR and see what happens. They are about to add Williams and they are happy with their goaltending for some reason. There isn’t really a deal there. Don’t think they are a good match

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Up until now, you’ve never mentioned any interest in the future. Your whole MO has been you whining about how moving Kreider hurts the lineup this and next season.

Speaking of Zbad, he’s going to cost 10M+ to retain. ADA is going to cost probably 6M+. What about Fox? Kakko? Chytil? We have 8m tied up in Trouba. Shesty/Geo will need raises.

In the delusional world you live in there’s no such thing as a salary cap. In reality though, there is and committing potentially 50M to Kreider means you’re probably going to be forced to move a younger and likely better player because of the commitment you made to CK 3 years ago.

This isn’t about Buch or Kreider. They play different positions. I was just highlighting that despite CK’s hot streak and Buch’s cold streak, there’s only a 6 point difference between them.

I’ll stick to checkers analogies since you passionately hate chess for some reason.

I get the sense you think you're some kind of a genius. Good for you, that's cute. And can you please show me where anyone here has advocated giving Kreider 50M?

 

[Edge]

I dont want to move Buch for picks/prospects. Younger cost controlled players for depth. Now if those things dont line up with one team, you flip the assets for that desired return somewhere else. Or you trade Buchnevich to a team for a similarly aged player, whether it be forward or defense, but offers a different player type. Plays a different style of game than what he did or than Skjei, and then you slot Skjei down or move him.

Which is fine, but the guys you're describing are going to come with contracts --- especially if they have some experience. Because we just said we don't want to be in a state of perpetual rebuilding, so i'm not sure how trading a 25 year old for younger players jives with that. Either they are going to be cheap and very young, or they are going to be a little older and either on their second contract, or coming up on their second contract.

So I'm 100 percent in agreement with the approach you're describing, I just think it's going to bring it with costs that cumulatively will more or less replace Buch's salary anyway.

 

[MetalJaws]

A lot of teams that would conceivably want Georgiev probably don't have the space to take Smith, and we can't just move Staal with his NMC.

I know it's hard to navigate this shit but that's why we just gotta trust GMJG to find a way. He knows what Smith and Staal are doing to the Rangers cap. He wants our upcoming UFA's and RFA's more than the guys eating our cap space just as much as the fans do. Unfortunately it's up to him to figure out.

I do think he has some chips at his disposal.

 

[NYRangers0723]

I hate to say it but we're two years into this rebuilding process, and people don't have the stomach to continue to sell off when it's the path forward

And selling off is not going to be made in a vacuum, it's having the ability to have pieces so you can make other moves.

Panarin has been nothing short of amazing for this team, but him being here has really screwed with the perception of how things need to go


JD's comments a couple weeks ago when he talked about selling at the deadline would say otherwise

not really. He didn’t give a real indication one way or another. Look I had no problem with last deadline deals. I’m not totally against trading Kreider but I think we need to be absolutely positively sure because he is gonna be a big loss whether some want to admit it or not

 

[NYSPORTS]

I mean they aren’t going to sell either. They will give the minutes to TVR and see what happens. They are about to add Williams and they are happy with their goaltending for some reason. There isn’t really a deal there. Don’t think they are a good match

i don’t think they are a match either. The Carolina’s, Tampa and Colorado are cheap in trades IMO. We need a contender in Detroit, or a Chicago or Los Angeles to trade with. Unfortunately, besides Boston and maybe Toronto, I see many holding their chips and likely sinking with them.

 

[Edge]

I get the sense you think you're some kind of a genius. Good for you, that's cute. And can you please show me where anyone here has advocated giving Kreider 50M?

Without jumping into the conversation you're having with Kupo, and more to give a frame of reference to the broader discussion, I think the market rate is probably going to be pretty darn close to $50M.

I could be way wrong on this, but I really think the market is going to be 7x7 ($49 million). I'd probably even say that the player being described in these threads, sounds like a 7x7 player.

That's the number that I think becomes the sticking point. I think most everyone would be significantly more okay with 6x5. Slightly less at 6x6 or 7x5, and increasingly less comfortable at 6x7, 7x6, and eventually 7x7. So the debate somewhat hinges on the price point.

I think Kreider's going to ask for the 7x7, if he hasn't already.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I get the sense you think you're some kind of a genius. Good for you, that's cute. And can you please show me where anyone here has advocated giving Kreider 50M?

Because that’s likely what it’ll cost to keep his services here.

Tell me - do you Re-Sign Kreider if that’s what it takes?

And I don’t think I’m a genius.. I’m just a guy who has seen one too many players signed to long term deals in their late 20’s that fail to live up to their contracts.

 

[bobbop]

Because I can tell you, with a fair degree of confidence, that the Rangers aren't terribly interested in trading cost-controlled talent in their 20s for picks and prospects.

That's the market for rentals and expiring contracts, but there's really not an appetite to take a guy like Buch and move him for pricks and prospects. That window was last summer, when they saw guys they liked and whom they felt might be able to step in for the 2020-21 campaign. I don't see them taking a similar approach this year, and hoping a guy steps in 2021-22.

Buch, warts and all, has value around the league. I believe the Rangers preference is, and will continue to be, exploring whether they can move Buch for a different kind of third line RW, but one at a similar price point. I think you're second most likely option is them packaging Buch, along with other pieces, and trying to find a second line wing. In the latter scenario, you're looking at what is likely a higher salary. So monetarily, I think your two most likely options are a financial wash, or even slight increase.

The advantage the Rangers have with Buchnevich is that he can be moved anywhere in the league. No no trades, no control concerns. I think he is marketable and depending on where Kreider nets out, could be the logical guy to move.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

Even Kapanan is not enough? Wow.


Well, works for me. We traded Cam Talbot for a used band-aid. Nice to know we learned from our mistake.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

not really. He didn’t give a real indication one way or another. Look I had no problem with last deadline deals. I’m not totally against trading Kreider but I think we need to be absolutely positively sure because he is gonna be a big loss whether some want to admit it or not

People said the same exact thing about losing Zucc and Hayes.

 

[bobbop]

I find it fascinating how far that the conversation on Kreider has moved from NFW two months ago.

 

[bobbop]

I find it fascinating how far that the conversation on Kreider has moved from NFW two months ago.