Speculation: Roster building thread XXIII: Heading into doldrum days and All Star break

[nyrage]

To points in the previous thread-

In the hypothetical where the 3 goalie system works, they really have to find a calendar schedule so that they can send Shesty down to play AHL games during his breaks. It's unfortunate that Georgy isnt still waiver exempt so that they could do the same for him.

Buchnevich is probably going to end the season with around 40 points again. Not everyone is either a first liner or a defensive forward. The decision to keep or not keep him should have to do with factors unrelated to his Eli Manning impersonations on the bench.

The Rangers love Kreider, and we see this, but they loved Zucc too. Team has to be smart about this and make it a business decision.

A couple of days ago I started a post (but didn't post it), on how Buch is a young 40-50 pt second liner. Yes, he needs to improve, especially defensively, but he's not a bad player. It's too bad that a lot of people were projecting him to be a 70-80 point player (I remember those posts) so now he's a bust or disappointing. Like you say, not everyone can be a first line player. The question is he a core player going forward? Probably not, but not totally expendable either.

All this CK talk (and I love the guy) has been reminding me of Zucc, too. I would guess that Gorton is probably 80-90% sure about trading him. There is so much energy spent here discussing whether we should trade him or re-sin him. Personally I think it's a moot point. I could be wrong, but it feels like Zucc and Hayes all over again.

We won't be able to replace him right away, but the team will move forward anyway. The goal may not be to replace him right away. Gorton's goal will be to build the team for the long run with the cap in mind.

 

[RGY]

Dougie Hamilton might have broken his leg yesterday. If he is out an extended period of time, the Hurricanes are not buyers anymore.

They are still buyers imo.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

That’s the same thing. Com’on

No, it's not. It was in response to someone saying he doesn't want all that money tied up in two left wings. I don't agree. Spend your money on your best players.

 

[NYSPORTS]

They didn't name Zib captain either, so by that logic they don't think highly of him? Who cares about who gets named captain?

ok, don’t make anybody a Captain. If people want to resign Kreider they must not have too much faith in these kids. I said last year, if they hit on several of these kids the cap will like Toronto or these other teams overnight. No way they said. We have enough for 10 years. Oh yeah?

 

[JimmyG89]

Dougie Hamilton might have broken his leg yesterday. If he is out an extended period of time, the Hurricanes are not buyers anymore.

They actually might buy even more. He's not done for the season and there is no reason to think they can't stay in it in the East. I'd think they add a scorer and a depth d man.

Not to mention, but this actually opens a spot for one of their younger D in the minors. One thing we know if that Carolina is brimming with defense and defensive prospects. They'll be fine.

 

[Edge]

I mean something to consider here, the Rangers could very well prefer to upgrade the LD slot by moving Skjei, and taking on a higher salary there, and moving Buch for a different kind of third line RW.

In both cases, those deals would bring back an NHL-level, and not prospects/picks. Additionally, it would bring back NHL-level salary/salaries.

They could very well prefer using those two assets in that fashion, as opposed to using to free up cash to resign Kreider.

 

[NYSPORTS]

No, it's not. It was in response to someone saying he doesn't want all that money tied up in two left wings. I don't agree. Spend your money on your best players.

Well, we’re spending a huge portion of our money on Hank, Staal and buyouts. I don’t think we need a calculator to realize Kreider is going to be 29 and tying a ton in a guy without a blast of a Panerin shot is pretty risky considering all this youth is going to need a raise before Kreider’s contract expires.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

The thing with the argument that we traded Zucc, Hayes, Nash, McDonagh, etc so we might as well trade Kreider too is that those were all needed things because at those times we desperately needed young assets that we got in return.

At this point, there's a legitimate question as to what this organization needs more between more young assets/picks and established veteran top 6 forwards who provide leadership and stability.

Without Kreider and with Strome and Fast in question, the only experienced players in the entire forward group are Panarin who has been in NY a year, Mika, and Buchnevich who doesn't really seem to be a leader by any means. At some point you have to ask yourself if you're teetering on the edge of an Oilers type tear down where you tear down too deep, try to backfill leadership with UFA retread who have no experience in your organization, and you end up with a bunch of talented kids trying to swim in the deep end all alone.

There is nobody to replace Kreider either from an on-ice perspective or from a leadership perspective. People saying Kakko can replace Kreider on ice are really reducing both guys down. Both are big guys who play some kind of power forward game, but Kakko isn't a net front player like Kreider is and even though his skating will definitely improve, he'll almost certainly never have Kreider's speed to push D back. Those are probably the two biggest parts of Kreider's game. Leadership wise, there's more to it than being a supportive person or someone who can rally the guys behind you. A team also needs some leaders who are comfortable and established within the organization, which Kreider and very few other guys left are. It's hard to go to someone for support when they're just getting comfortable themselves.

So, yeah we did move a ton of veterans that people were attached to and it did end up being beneficial, but the team today isn't the same team the those guys were taken off of. There's real reasons to doubt that trading Kreider will be beneficial.

Thank you.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Yeah it sounds like Hamilton is going to be done for the season he has a broken fibula.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I mean something to consider here, the Rangers could very well prefer to upgrade the LD slot by moving Skjei, and taking on a higher salary there, and moving Buch for a different kind of third line RW.

In both cases, those deals would bring back an NHL-level, and not prospects/picks. Additionally, it would bring back NHL-level salary/salaries.

They could very well prefer using those two assets in that fashion, as opposed to using to free up cash to resign Kreider.

Great and their top 6 gets even worse next year. The last thing this team needs to do is bring in another high priced defenseman or 3rd line RW.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Well, we’re spending a huge portion of our money on Hank, Staal and buyouts. I don’t think we need a calculator to realize Kreider is going to be 29 and tying a ton in a guy without a blast of a Panerin shot is pretty risky considering all this youth is going to need a raise before Kreider’s contract expires.

And they're just about all gone after next season.

 

[Edge]

Great and their top 6 gets even worse next year. The last thing this team needs to do is bring in another high priced defenseman or 3rd line RW.

I think in most scenarios, you're looking at something getting worse, or remaining substandard, over the short term.

Maybe the second line. Maybe the LD. Maybe the bottom six.

In just about every scenarios we've floated - with Kreider, without Kreider, with Skjei, without Skjei, etc., there's a trade-off.

 

[NYSPORTS]

fact that there isn’t a Kreider replacement on deck isn’t a reason that you don’t trade Kreider (his age, contract demands, current growth cycle of the team are).

.

agree

and the rest of the post was great too

 

[FIRE DRURY]

No, it's not. It was in response to someone saying he doesn't want all that money tied up in two left wings. I don't agree. Spend your money on your best players.

Our best players today will not be our best players forever. I can’t fathom how you have zero concerns about committing 50M for a 29 year old.

The contract will be fine for the few years - but happens in year 3, 4, 5 and beyond?

You say we have a lot of money coming off the books which is 100% accurate, but you turn a blind eye at the fact that we’re going to have a lot of players that need new contracts.

 

[NYSPORTS]

And they're just about all gone after next season.

the point is we don’t need history repeating itself

 

[LokiDog]

A kid who's played 5 NHL games?

Yes. You move rentals to playoff teams for guys with bright futures but who don’t subtract from the NHL roster. That’s virtually the entire point. They likely do not want to give up a guy like Gauthier. But their timeline has them contending now. Gauthier is a guy who helps in another 1-3 years and beyond. Kreider helps them contend now without taking anything off their roster. The price they pay is giving up a kid who I would bet in 2 or 3 seasons is outplaying Kreider because one will be entering his prime while the other is declining. Or should we only trade Kreider for some fantasy land Matt Tkachuk scenario?

 

[MetalJaws]

Send Kreider to whomever for a 1st and prospect then resign him on a team friendly deal in July. If he really wants to be here that is.

Package Smith or Staal with whomever you give Georgiev to. Add a 7th or 6th to sweeten the pot. Or, add Lias to the deal and take a pick back.

If cap is tight with trying to sign Lemieux, ADA, Strome and Krieder then I believe Buch and fast to be the men out. Send em away.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Dougie Hamilton might have broken his leg yesterday. If he is out an extended period of time, the Hurricanes are not buyers anymore.

i don’t see them throwing in the towel

 

[Lion Hound]

Lias Andersson.

Thrower of Medals, Father of Dragons, Breaker of Contracts.

That's fantastic!

 

[NYSPORTS]

Send Kreider to whomever for a 1st and prospect then resign him on a team friendly deal in July. If he really wants to be here that is.

Package Smith or Staal with whomever you give Georgiev to. Add a 7th or 6th to sweeten the pot. Or, add Lias to the deal and take a pick back.
.

ahh, maybe a in a video game we can do that. Trade him for a ton, resign him for a little and send worthless vets packing,

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I think in most scenarios, you're looking at something getting worse, or remaining substandard, over the short term.

Maybe the second line. Maybe the LD. Maybe the bottom six.

In just about every scenarios we've floated - with Kreider, without Kreider, with Skjei, without Skjei, etc., there's a trade-off.

Minimize the pain then. They're much worse without Kreider than they are without Buch or Skjei. How many defenseman have they drafted the last few years? Move ADA to the left, you still have Hajek and Lindgren developing, you have a ton of kids coming up through the system. You have buckets of defensive prospects, what you don't have are any good forwards prospects outside of Kravtsov, not counting Kakko.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

the point is we don’t need history repeating itself

Just buy him out.

 

[Guyute]

How much would Athanasiou cost to re-sign this summer? We would be adding salary if the deal is based on Lias Andersson + another prospect.

 

[Avery16]

 

[Edge]

Our best players today will not be our best players forever. I can’t fathom how you have zero concerns about committing 50M for a 29 year old.

The contract will be fine for the few years - but happens in year 3, 4, 5 and beyond?

You say we have a lot of money coming off the books which is 100% accurate, but you turn a blind eye at the fact that we’re going to have a lot of players that need new contracts.

And it's not just the resignings. With or without Kreider, we're going to be bringing guys in, and we're going to be looking to upgrade positions. Let's use LD as an example --- most people on here would agree that the Rangers need an upgrade at LD. I think the Rangers aren't shy about the notion that they'd like to upgrade the position. That's going to come with a cost. No one is going to give us a player equal to or better than Skjei, who is making less than him. There's no reason for them to make that trade.

So let's assume we want to upgrade that position --- that could be another couple of extra million there as well. Other positions will come with similar price points. This isn't a roster that is set and is looking for a creative way to add one last contract in there for a player we'd like to keep, this is a roster than is going to have a lot of moving parts. As we've discussed, some of these prospects and cheap players we have are going to be moved for NHL-level help. NHL-level help is going to cost more than the prospects we've trading.

So beyond re-signings, there are other costs that will come up on the horizon. It's inevitable, and it's not going to be 3 or 4 years down the line. It's going to be this summer. It's going to be this time next year. It's going to be summer 2021. These costs are going to be in addition to resigning players, and it's going to use up a lot of the money that will be coming off the books. These are the factors being considered.

As for the contract itself, and performance we can expect over its duration, that's a whole other story.