Speculation: Roster Building Thread XLVIII - “Into the Heartland”

[Luger]

Leafs shouldn’t have signed Tavares. I know that’s an unpopular opinion, and yes he’s a great player, but look at the problems they are having right now, and they still need to fix their blue line, which is not good. They will spin their wheels for years.

Idk, Tavares and 4 firsts seems better than Marner.

 

[Bob Richards]

Lots of media is either spouting stuff from Marner or the Leafs. As many as 28 teams could offer sheet Marner this summer.

Offer sheets are pretty elite at filling in dead air for the boring offseason days

 

[Avery16]

Not advocating for an offer sheet, but you know you can always negotiate a more amenable return than the picks. With Marner, Zibanejad, Kakko, Kravstov, Chytil, Buchnevich, Trouba, Skjei and Hank were likely picking in the 25-32 range.

 

[Tawnos]

kypreos didn't say that we'd offer sheet marner...he said that he has heard other people have said it and he doesn't think it makes any sense "i'll believe it when I see it"

What I get for going off a summary.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

75/25 chance that Hayes just starts coasting now that he got paid

Love what he brought but I would not give that man a 6-7 year contract.

 

[haohmaru]

6x7M for Hayes???? LOL. Here comes another lockout.

 

[Avery16]

I'd MUCH rather Panarin + 4 1sts vs Marner and 0 1sts. Even with the age aside.

Id rather have neither than a 28 year old Panarin making 11 mill+ on a guaranteed contract for most of the next decade.

 

[Thirty One]

75/25 chance that Hayes just starts coasting now that he got paid

Love what he brought but I would not give that man a 6-7 year contract.

He's going to gain 5 pounds a day for the next week.

 

[Trxjw]

I think Toronto would just take the 1sts vs most of what we can offer.

There isn't a whole lot that I'd keep off the table though.

Well they become a significantly worse team by going that route. Sure they get 4 1st round picks from a rebuilding team, but the Rangers get significantly better by getting Marner without giving up any roster players. So even in a great 2020 draft with a potential lottery pick, what are the odds they get a player as good as Marner? If they get that player, how long does it take him to start contributing?

Side note: Listening to Bobby Mac pronounce Pionk as "Pee-oink" on the Bobcast was absolute gold.

 

[RGY]

75/25 chance that Hayes just starts coasting now that he got paid

Love what he brought but I would not give that man a 6-7 year contract.

Thats my fear with him. Some nights it just seemed like he wasnt even there. Like did he take shifts? Thats how uneventful they were and how he played at times.

 

[SA16]

7M for Hayes is fine but it will be undoubtedly be ridiculed.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

7M is fine but it will be undoubtedly be ridiculed.

Ya value wise based on how good he is 7M isn’t that bad given the market

Jeff Skinner got 9M, Duchene is gonna get ~10M. A 2nd line center costs about 7M on the UFA market now.

 

[SA16]

Ya value wise based on how good he is 7M isn’t that bad given the market

Jeff Skinner got 9M, Duchene is gonna get ~10M. A 2nd line center costs about 7M on the UFA market now.

I think in terms of value it’s better than those and certainly is better than Brock Nelson at 6x6.

Unfortunately for him there’s the AV factor.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I'd be more inclined to think Gorton is pushing for Nylander, but do we need a right wing? Slotting him as a center is one notch above Chytil as a 2nd line center at this point.

Or Buchnevich is higher up on the trade board.

I guess it is just face value. Gorton has a bunch of lines in the water. More or less mutually exclusive options, and it's hard to handicap the odds.

Center has to be the priority, followed by dealing away Shattenkirk and Smith. Oddly enough, no rumors involving centers. Is it addressed with a high draft pick (8, 9, 12, 14 or 16?)? Is gorton playing the media and he surprises us all? Interesting times.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I think in terms of value it’s better than those and certainly is better than Brock Nelson at 6x6.

Unfortunately for him there’s the AV factor.

Yeah the Nelson contract is a f***ing disaster, Hayes is twice the player he is.

I totally forgot the Flyers hired he who shall not be named. Maybe he learned a lesson or two from his failures here, but I doubt it.

 

[bl02]

I'll add another Or:

The Ranger sign Panarin & sign/trade for 2-3 4th liners but trade Names, Kreider, Vesey and Fast ($12M+ in space), but don't absorb any bad contracts to off-set the cap space for Breadman.

Vesey nets a high 3rd.
Kreider gets a 1st
Names gets a 3rd, but the Rangers retain $1M
Fast gets a 4th and a 2020 7th.

Rangers sign Panarin for 5 Years $55M. Breadman banking on making more bread as a UFA deal at 32.
Rangers sign Bellmare ($1.4M), Hathaway ($1.35M), & Filpulla ($2.75M).

Do most of you really wanna trade fast for nothing? He did play last year hurt. I know he’s 27 and not 23 but if all I’m getting is a 4th I just keep him.

 

[JC704]

IMO, if the Rangers were to offer sheet Marner, Gorton could probably flip Deangelo for a first-round pick on his own, and then attach a player/asset to a second-round pick somewhere to move back into the First Round.

In the end, it would be more like two or three first-round picks for Marner. Assuming nothing goes terribly wrong, Marner puts them into a playoff spot, so we're talking two or three mid/late first-round picks.

I'd do that in a heartbeat IMO. Six years is a major age difference in this league these days.

 

[DutchShamrock]

He's going to gain 5 pounds a day for the next week.

Oh, he's going to 7 weddings this summer?

I still think it's crazy to commit that long to Hayes with Patrick sitting right there as a 2nd line center (to be, at worst). But the flyers are what we were. They'll deal the cheap, young option for something that won't pan out.

 

[bobbop]

Aside for the obvious deal breaker — 4 firsts — with Marner, there are two other problems. The Leafs will likely match. I don’t think you can pay him enough for them not to match. Secondly, it ties your hands for seven days. It the real world that’s not a lot of time but in hockey free agency, it’s an eternity. The show opens and closes in 2-3 days.

That’s why I don’t think the Islanders who make that kind of move. Their other targets would be gone.

If anyone is going to offer sheet Marner, it’s Florida when they lose out on Panarin.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

IMO, if the Rangers were to offer sheet Marner, Gorton could probably flip Deangelo for a first-round pick on his own, and then attach a player/asset to a second-round pick somewhere to move back into the First Round.

In the end, it would be more like two or three first-round picks for Marner. Assuming nothing goes terribly wrong, Marner puts them into a playoff spot, so we're talking two or three mid/late first-round picks.

I'd do that in a heartbeat IMO. Six years is a major age difference in this league these days.

If they pick up the 1st from Zucc then they can essentially back fill the picks they're giving up as they move along.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Aside for the obvious deal breaker — 4 firsts — with Marner, there are two other problems. The Leafs will likely match. I don’t think you can pay him enough for them not to match. Secondly, it ties your hands for seven days. It the real world that’s not a lot of time but in hockey free agency, it’s an eternity. The show opens and closes in 2-3 days.

That’s why I don’t think the Islanders who make that kind of move. Their other targets would be gone.

If anyone is going to offer sheet Marner, it’s Florida when they lose out on Panarin.

I think if an offer sheet does happen it’s going to be a week+ into free agency

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think if an offer sheet does happen it’s going to be a week+ into free agency

Are teams even locked from making other moves if an offer sheet is signed?

 

[Trxjw]

I'd be more inclined to think Gorton is pushing for Nylander, but do we need a right wing? Slotting him as a center is one notch above Chytil as a 2nd line center at this point.

Or Buchnevich is higher up on the trade board.

I guess it is just face value. Gorton has a bunch of lines in the water. More or less mutually exclusive options, and it's hard to handicap the odds.

Center has to be the priority, followed by dealing away Shattenkirk and Smith. Oddly enough, no rumors involving centers. Is it addressed with a high draft pick (8, 9, 12, 14 or 16?)? Is gorton playing the media and he surprises us all? Interesting times.

Well you can look at Nylander one of two ways:
1. You think he's a center. If you think he's a center, then you're under less pressure to get up into the top-end of the first round and select one of those premium guys you like. You've also got your top two centers locked up for the next 3 years at less than $13M which gives you some serious breathing room. Especially if you think Nylander is on the 70pt end of the spectrum as a center.

2. You think he's a RW. Less optimal than a center for sure, but having a RH playmaking RW to line up next to your shoot-first, righty center is a pretty nice fit. Nylander is very good with the puck on his stick when he gains the zone and having Zibanejad finding soft spots in the ice as the trailer to fire his shot is a good fit from a shooting optimization perspective. Of course there's no guarantee that the chemistry would be there, but it's a good gamble to take.

So in that regard, the fall-back option is potentially a 70pt RW on what would be a solid contract for another 5 years. Not too shabby.

 

[bobbop]

I think if an offer sheet does happen it’s going to be a week+ into free agency

That’s a lot of cap space you have to hold open

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

That’s a lot of cap space you have to hold open

Thats what that 2nd buyout window is for.