Speculation: Roster Building Thread VII (2019/2020)

[GeorgeKaplan]

Would definitely trade skjei and buch and resign Kreider.

If I was keeping one of them I’d keep Buch, but I don’t think I’d be upset if all three were gone

 

[Edge]

Why is he taking 5 years instead of 7? His new deal will take him to age 36

I feel like his age when this next contact expires is going to be a major driving point for Kreider’s camp.

From a business standpoint, there’s little point in him becoming a free agent again at 33 or 34.

This is his by money contract and when start getting into shaving off multiple years, at $1-1.5 million a year, and then factoring in what his market value would be the best time he becomes a free agent, you’re potentially talking about an 8 figure difference in earnings. That’s not a factor that’s easily ignored.

 

[Edge]

I think he clocks in at $6M x 6 from most teams. If there is a bidding war, then the upfront pay and bonus structure goes up.

It all depends on how many teams with cap space are interested in him.

I admit that it can be a bit of a slippery slope when it comes to Kreider.

On the one there’s the belief he’s a valuable player who drives play, is incredibly hard to find, and will age very well because of his speed.

And then there’s the belief that his contract will be reasonable and that teams won’t be willing to hit that 7x7 mark.

I feel like we can’t have it both ways. If he’s so valuable that we really want to keep him, and he’s a smart long term investment, then his value is going to be high around the league.

Because players as we’ve described Kreider often don’t lack of suitors and typically don’t have to offer discounts on their services.

But it is a little hard to believe he’s both as good as he’s being made out to be, and yet can still be signed to a deal that is somehow palatable and mathematically plausible within our budget constraints.

If the talent evaluation is true, the numbers and term for the next deal would seem likely to be higher.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I admit that it can be a bit of a slippery slope when it comes to Kreider.

On the one there’s the belief he’s a valuable player who drives play, is incredibly hard to find, and will age very well because of his speed.

And then there’s the belief that his contract will be reasonable and that teams won’t be willing to hit that 7x7 mark.

I feel like we can’t have it both ways. If he’s so valuable that we really want to keep him, and he’s a smart long term investment, then his value is going to be high around the league.

Because players as we’ve described Kreider often don’t lack of suitors and typically don’t have to offer discounts on their services.

But it is a little hard to believe he’s both as good as he’s being made out to be, and yet can still be signed to a deal that is somehow palatable and mathematically plausible within our budget constraints.

If the talent evaluation is true, the numbers and term for the next deal would seem likely to be higher.

It's possible he is just undervalued because he hasn't put the raw point totals that even someone likeJVR who is a comparable and who is a 30+ goal scorer put up.
Still think he gets the 7M or more that is expected but maybe not.

 

[Ola]

It's possible he is just undervalued because he hasn't put the raw point totals that even someone likeJVR who is a comparable and who is a 30+ goal scorer put up.
Still think he gets the 7M or more that is expected but maybe not.

I think Kreider’s play in general is underrated. We haven’t really had that high scoring environment, he could easy have had like 5+5 more per year had he been on another team. If that was the case he would have been a given in a bit higher echelon of top PFs.

So that is one aspect of it, and I think hands down his play in general passes the test.

The other aspect of it, that certainly get forgotten at times, is Kreider’s total inability to step up when the team needs him the most. It’s almost like he is too business minded, he shows up for work to do the same thing night after night. We have been in so many tough situations with Kreider on the roster, and he has always been one of the top 10-20% under-performers on the roster.

When a coach looks at his bench desperate for someone that can add something for us, Kreider looks away.

How do we value this fact? How important is it for us? We shouldn’t give Kreider a contract that we regret after playing like the Islanders or Washington in the POs in a physical series in which guys like Buch and Fast or Ziba ended up being the ones that stepped up to the challenge while Kreider just totally mailed it in.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I usually would be like "we sold our soul", trading away potentially all of the old core ... but the rebuild already created personalities and a new identity, I feel.
Again it depends on how the season goes. I'm convinced that the front office will go for it, if we look like this and better for 30 games.

If not, we CAN trade Fast, Kreider, Skjei, Strome and Buch. Imo atm, only Buch "deserves" to stay here.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I think Kreider’s play in general is underrated. We haven’t really had that high scoring environment, he could easy have had like 5+5 more per year had he been on another team. If that was the case he would have been a given in a bit higher echelon of top PFs.

So that is one aspect of it, and I think hands down his play in general passes the test.

The other aspect of it, that certainly get forgotten at times, is Kreider’s total inability to step up when the team needs him the most. It’s almost like he is too business minded, he shows up for work to do the same thing night after night. We have been in so many tough situations with Kreider on the roster, and he has always been one of the top 10-20% under-performers on the roster.

When a coach looks at his bench desperate for someone that can add something for us, Kreider looks away.

How do we value this fact? How important is it for us? We shouldn’t give Kreider a contract that we regret after playing like the Islanders or Washington in the POs in a physical series in which guys like Buch and Fast or Ziba ended up being the ones that stepped up to the challenge while Kreider just totally mailed it in.

IDK what you're talking about but Krieder has made his reputation in clutch time. THat's mot of the reason people expect so much out of him, going back to his role in the 2012 playoffs when the next season he couldn't make the team...

 

[Ola]

IDK what you're talking about but Krieder has made his reputation in clutch time. THat's mot of the reason people expect so much out of him, going back to his role in the 2012 playoffs when the next season he couldn't make the team...

Like I said, it’s easy to forget!

Seriously though, like since 2014 Kreider’s POs has been disappointing. And that has also been the case late in season and tough rivalries that flames up during the season. Unfortunately.

 

[Ola]

I usually would be like "we sold our soul", trading away potentially all of the old core ... but the rebuild already created personalities and a new identity, I feel.
Again it depends on how the season goes. I'm convinced that the front office will go for it, if we look like this and better for 30 games.

If not, we CAN trade Fast, Kreider, Skjei, Strome and Buch. Imo atm, only Buch "deserves" to stay here.

I don’t think we disagree on Buch the player, but I think he is a must trade, and not later than at the draft. He will be 26 when his next contract is up. After playing 2 years with Ziba and Panarin he will have strong stats.

Building a team in this league is about assembling the best possible roster under the cap. How good a player is, is only one part of the equation. It’s just as essential how much you pay for that player.

I can’t see how we ever could end up signing Buch to a reasonable contract after this one. It will cover his age of 27-33. Look at the Skinner contract. And if we wait until the later part of this contract, his value will crash like JT Miller’s value did.

So while I love Buch, I can’t see how we ever could keep him.

 

[egelband]

Just curious, how is John Gilmour doing in Buffalo?

Oh wait, he didn’t make it....


But I was told he just needs a chance. He is soo good.

He stinks.

I hope he does great.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I can’t see how we ever could end up signing Buch to a reasonable contract after this one. It will cover his age of 27-33. Look at the Skinner contract. And if we wait until the later part of this contract, his value will crash like JT Miller’s value did.

So while I love Buch, I can’t see how we ever could keep him.

Idk if you think that Buch can command anything close to what Skinner got, or what. But you would resign him to a reasonable contract, if it presents itself.

I think it will. Buch should settle between five and six million a year and he'd be perfect depth.

 

[egelband]

I think Kreider’s play in general is underrated. We haven’t really had that high scoring environment, he could easy have had like 5+5 more per year had he been on another team. If that was the case he would have been a given in a bit higher echelon of top PFs.

So that is one aspect of it, and I think hands down his play in general passes the test.

The other aspect of it, that certainly get forgotten at times, is Kreider’s total inability to step up when the team needs him the most. It’s almost like he is too business minded, he shows up for work to do the same thing night after night. We have been in so many tough situations with Kreider on the roster, and he has always been one of the top 10-20% under-performers on the roster.

When a coach looks at his bench desperate for someone that can add something for us, Kreider looks away.

How do we value this fact? How important is it for us? We shouldn’t give Kreider a contract that we regret after playing like the Islanders or Washington in the POs in a physical series in which guys like Buch and Fast or Ziba ended up being the ones that stepped up to the challenge while Kreider just totally mailed it in.

Small sample of course but watching Kreider this season I've thought he appears to be avoiding contact. Maybe trying not to get injured before free agency. I could be just projecting, too. But that's my impression.

 

[leetch99]

Leadership Is Right In Chris Kreider's Kitchen

Kind of like an old mother hen....I'd sooner see the rooster side of him appear on the ice more often such that he uses that 200+ pounds of muscle mass and blistering speed to flatten and/or soften up some of the dmen he faces to create more room for his line mates . If he hit more dmen more often along the boards and in the corners.....imagine how much more he would be revered by his buddies ? Going forward I would keep Buch over him and invest more time and that saved money in seeking /developing somebody that is just a bit more willing to step it up physically more often . That is the type of guy I would want to be on the hunt for if they do trade him away and hope to get in return . He might have had some fancy stats as some have posted....but he certainly slowed down in scoring goals in the 2nd half last season when play became more intense across the league. That is when you want your leaders to step it up and move out of their comfort zone . Kreider needs to take the lead on that .

 

[Mikos87]

I admit that it can be a bit of a slippery slope when it comes to Kreider.

On the one there’s the belief he’s a valuable player who drives play, is incredibly hard to find, and will age very well because of his speed.

And then there’s the belief that his contract will be reasonable and that teams won’t be willing to hit that 7x7 mark.

I feel like we can’t have it both ways. If he’s so valuable that we really want to keep him, and he’s a smart long term investment, then his value is going to be high around the league.

Because players as we’ve described Kreider often don’t lack of suitors and typically don’t have to offer discounts on their services.

But it is a little hard to believe he’s both as good as he’s being made out to be, and yet can still be signed to a deal that is somehow palatable and mathematically plausible within our budget constraints.

If the talent evaluation is true, the numbers and term for the next deal would seem likely to be higher.

And that’s where I think the fandom is kicking in. I think the athleticism is there where he is age well.

He can skate.

But I also think he’s a guy that is a known quantity around the league. In other words, the productivity and “show rate” go hand in hand, and he’s a very good complimentary top 6 winger.

But he’s well past the point where a team is going to say, if we can get him to do x more often, then we will get more out of him.

The question becomes then is how much is the premium worth above a 2nd line winger’s production.

He’s somewhere between a Gus Nyqvist and EKane imo.

 

[eco's bones]

For Kreider to Boston--I'd like John Beecher as part of the deal of what we get back. He's big and he can really skate. There's untapped offensive potential as well as a mean David Backes like disposition. He was great in the summer juniors tournament.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

let’s not pretend guys don’t sign here for less money or term happens all the time

Does it happen? Sure.
Should you assume they do? Nope.

 

[McSauer]

Small sample of course but watching Kreider this season I've thought he appears to be avoiding contact. Maybe trying not to get injured before free agency. I could be just projecting, too. But that's my impression.

Yup, a Callahan contract year move: completely departed from his shot blocking, aggressive style in his contract year; went to the Olympics in Sochi and went back to that play on the big stage; and then returned to NYR and went back to his shitty play with no extension (not to mention his OUTRAGEOUS contract demands that year), and got traded. One of the worst Cs this team has ever had. Glad he never he never won anything on those stacked TBL teams.

People that remember Callahan fondly conveniently forget his last year with the team.

I hope this is not the case with CK; we'll see in the next few weeks...

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

My lines:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Kreider-Lias-Kakko
Lemieux-Howden-Strome
Smith-McKegg-Fast

 

[Raspewtin]

Yup, a Callahan contract year move: completely departed from his shot blocking, aggressive style in his contract year; went to the Olympics in Sochi and went back to that play on the big stage; and then returned to NYR and went back to his ****ty play with no extension (not to mention his OUTRAGEOUS contract demands that year), and got traded. One of the worst Cs this team has ever had. Glad he never he never won anything on those stacked TBL teams.

People that remember Callahan fondly conveniently forget his last year with the team.

I hope this is not the case with CK; we'll see in the next few weeks...

you seem really mad

 

[Tawnos]

Yup, a Callahan contract year move: completely departed from his shot blocking, aggressive style in his contract year; went to the Olympics in Sochi and went back to that play on the big stage; and then returned to NYR and went back to his ****ty play with no extension (not to mention his OUTRAGEOUS contract demands that year), and got traded. One of the worst Cs this team has ever had. Glad he never he never won anything on those stacked TBL teams.

People that remember Callahan fondly conveniently forget his last year with the team.

I hope this is not the case with CK; we'll see in the next few weeks...

Maybe, just maybe, he was having a hard time adjusting to the new coach who was asking him to do things OUTSIDE of his shot-blocking, aggressive style.

I don’t forget his last season, but the simplest explanation isn’t that he was suddenly a different player.

 

[True Blue]

For Kreider to Boston--I'd like John Beecher as part of the deal of what we get back. He's big and he can really skate. There's untapped offensive potential as well as a mean David Backes like disposition. He was great in the summer juniors tournament.

As you know, I LOVED Beecher. That said, if Boston wanted him, why would they simply not trade for Kreider at the deadline?

Kreider is a legit top line wing. And that is what the return for him would be like. Or should be like. Somewhat better than Hayes. Not a lot but a bit.

I also think that people tend to forger that unlike other players, he actually does have a history of coming up big in the playoffs. Just look at his playoff stats vs. Nash.

There is a way to keep him, but it involves trading Buch. Which is not something I am opposed to doing. I think that his value to the franchise may be greater than his value in a trade.

 

[Mikos87]

Boston has a number of good young prospects.

Studnika
Beecher
Frederic
Steen

But the upside on those are bottom 6 guys, or a boom or bust in Steen.

If you deal Kreider you get a pick and a prospect.

The only way to get a higher tier prospect imo is if the acquiring team negotiates an extension early.

Still very early on in the season, but if the Rangers are in the playoff hunt by the deadline, I dont see them selling off.

Then again, St. Louis sold off Stastny a couple of years ago despite being in the hunt and won the cup a year later.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Boston has a number of good young prospects.

Studnika
Beecher
Frederic
Steen

But the upside on those are bottom 6 guys, or a boom or bust in Steen.

If you deal Kreider you get a pick and a prospect.

The only way to get a higher tier prospect imo is if the acquiring team negotiates an extension early.

Still very early on in the season, but if the Rangers are in the playoff hunt by the deadline, I dont see them selling off.

Then again, St. Louis sold off Stastny a couple of years ago despite being in the hunt and won the cup a year later.

I can see the Rangers resigning Kreider and then shipping him for a young player als Brassard for Mika type of trade. Futures for Kreider isn't needed. Another young NHL player can be more useful at this time in my opinion. Like a Dvorak from Arizona or Kempe from Kings or Virtanen from Canucks for example

 

[McSauer]

I can see the Rangers resigning Kreider and then shipping him for a young player als Brassard for Mika type of trade. Futures for Kreider isn't needed. Another young NHL player can be more useful at this time in my opinion. Like a Dvorak from Arizona or Kempe from Kings or Virtanen from Canucks for example

When would you intend to trade him after resigning CK...? He's surely going to have some NTC built-in. He's not getting resigned to be traded like Brassard. That ship sailed...

However, those players could maybe be acquired for CK if an extension is worked out in advance with the team acquiring him.

 

[Fitzy]

My lines:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Kreider-Lias-Kakko
Lemieux-Howden-Strome
Smith-McKegg-Fast

I think that's ideal, especially of we aren't planning to play line 4 all that much.