Speculation: Roster Building Thread VII (2019/2020)

[Edge]

Man, how many times are you going to mention "not everything is going to fall into place"?

Like I said, Gettinger and Elmer were placeholders there. We can get better quality players for those cap hits.

I'm not concerned in the slightest about giving out raises in 21-22. If that roster is a thing, we have nearly $20m coming off the books the next year.

I guess it depends on how much everything falling into place is a central component of trying to project how close to the edge we can walk without falling over.

I mean when we start looking at names like Elmer and Gettinger to make it work, or whoever we want to use as placeholders, I think we're definitely teetering. And to be honest with you, if that is the case, IMO that's not a good looking lineup when you start getting further into the forward lineup.

And yes, we have money coming off in 21-22. But we also will have raises due to no less than 3 of the centers on that roster, who if they are good enough to make that roster work, are going to be looking for significant raises. We can't have one without the other. If they're good enough to assume those roles, they're going to get paid.

Then we also have to factor in that both Zibanejad, Kakko, Fox and Hajek will be looking for contracts after that 21-22 season. So it's not just about what we can field in 20-21, it's what we can field in 21-22 and after that. That starts to get pretty tight, pretty quick, even with salaries coming off the books.

 

[charliemurphy]

6.5/7 per. Who's pushing him down to the 3rd line? Kakko, Kravtsov and Buch are all RWs.

Cool but I don't think Gorton is paying Kreider anything north of 6.5 if that high.
Maybe the player to push him down is here or isn't here yet but if Kreider is signed long term and he's still in the top 2 lines by the middle-end of that contract then something went wrong. Don't get me wrong I'd resign him at the right price and length but the consistency is not there to warrant a big long contract and top minutes.

 

[Blueshirt13]

You guys are much better at the cap stuff than I am but I thought Staal, Smith and Lundqvist all come off the books after next season which frees up a ton of cash? Maybe Buch gets you a that 2C everyone is freaking out about or tweenish 2nd/3rd line guy who plays physical but has some skill. And I agree with you, I don't go any longer than 5 years on a Kreider deal.

Staal, Lundqvist and Smith will all come off in 2021/2022. Hajek, Andersson, Howden, Buch, Chytl and Shesterkin will all be up for extensions that year, which shouldn't be terrible, but the following year Zib, Kakko, Fox and Kratsov. Assuming we are resigning Zib and 2 of the kids pan out, gotta leave some room for resigning folk that year.

 

[Tawnos]

I guess it depends on how much everything falling into place is a central component of trying to project how close to the edge we can walk without falling over.

I mean when we start looking at names like Elmer and Gettinger to make it work, or whoever we want to use as placeholders, I think we're definitely teetering. And to be honest with you, if that is the case, IMO that's not a good looking lineup when you start getting further into the forward lineup.

And yes, we have money coming off in 21-22. But we also will have raises due to no less than 3 of the centers on that roster, who if they are good enough to make that roster work, are going to be looking for significant raises. We can't have one without the other. If they're good enough to assume those roles, they're going to get paid.

Then we also have to factor in that both Zibanejad, Kakko, Fox and Hajek will be looking for contracts after that 21-22 season. So it's not just about what we can field in 20-21, it's what we can field in 21-22 and after that. That starts to get pretty tight, pretty quick, even with salaries coming off the books.

Yes, on that last it does. But again, I wasn't actually looking at having Elmer or Gettinger or anyone like them in the lineup. We should be able to find quality 4th line players with similar cap hits. That's why I called them placeholders.

"Everything falling into place" is what rebuilding teams always plan on. There's no other option. It's not a good point to be making.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Staal, Lundqvist and Smith will all come off in 2021/2022. Hajek, Andersson, Howden, Buch, Chytl and Shesterkin will all be up for extensions that year, which shouldn't be terrible, but the following year Zib, Kakko, Fox and Kratsov. Assuming we are resigning Zib and 2 of the kids pan out, gotta leave some room for resigning folk that year.

Yeah but the cap is gonna be like 100m by then so don't even worry about it dude

 

[Edge]

So the alternative is to trade a top 6 wing for a late first round pick or prospect who you hope will turn into him in 3-5 years or overpaying through free agency. Is there a LW in our system who could replace him? This is my point, I understand patience but I feel like a lot of people here are waiting for the stars to magically align, which they almost never do.

I think when you're talking about a salary capped world, we have to realize we aren't dealing with ideals.

It's not ideal to trade a top six winger for a late first round pick, just like it's not ideal to have to trade Kevin Hayes with uncertainty at center, or Ryan McD without having a defenseman to take his place. So I don't view this as ideal. It stopped being ideal when we committed $20 million to Panarin and Trouba. Now we deal with the aftermath of those decisions, both good and bad, and what that means.

As for a top six winger, assuming Panarin doesn't fall off a cliff, I think I'm fairly comfortable going with Kakko, Kravtsov and Buchnevich as the other 3 wingers on our top two lines. And that's assuming Chytil and Andersson remain at center.

To me, the risk is on par with what we've already seen at center. If anything, I actually like our chances of having guys step up and show themselves to be first or second line wings slightly more than I like our chances of having a guy step and claim the second line center.

Personally, I'm not looking for the stars to magically align, but I am looking at needing some flexibility as we sort through all of this. I honestly think that's going to be tough with Kreider resigning.

It has nothing to do with his value, or his role. IMO, it's a logistics challenge.

 

[Edge]

Yes, on that last it does. But again, I wasn't actually looking at having Elmer or Gettinger or anyone like them in the lineup. We should be able to find quality 4th line players with similar cap hits. That's why I called them placeholders.

"Everything falling into place" is what rebuilding teams always plan on. There's no other option. It's not a good point to be making.

But the reality is, I don't think we need to cut it quite so close.

We have very good options in Kakko, Kravtsov and Buchneich. So it's not like there's this empty void where it's Kreider and someone like Lettieri, with nothing in between.

And that's without considering the possibility that Chytil, Andersson, and possibly even Barron could be in that mix as well.

Would I like to keep Kreider as a second line LW? Sure. But I don't think it's so desperate that we need to make things this tight or challenging as we look to fill out the rest of the roster either. That scenario is going to create some serious challenges, with or without everything falling into place.

 

[charliemurphy]

Staal, Lundqvist and Smith will all come off in 2021/2022. Hajek, Andersson, Howden, Buch, Chytl and Shesterkin will all be up for extensions that year, which shouldn't be terrible, but the following year Zib, Kakko, Fox and Kratsov. Assuming we are resigning Zib and 2 of the kids pan out, gotta leave some room for resigning folk that year.

Have to assume a name or two from that group won't be part of the organization by then.

 

[Edge]

Yeah but the cap is gonna be like 100m by then so don't even worry about it dude

Well a $19 million increase over the next 3 years would be pretty impressive.

 

[Edge]

Have to assume a name or two from that group won't be part of the organization by then.

And we also have to assume that the Rangers are going to want to trade for and/or sign talents to fill out the roster. So even if it isn't all them, there's a decent possibility that the different names in those slots are actually going to cost more.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I think when you're talking about a salary capped world, we have to realize we aren't dealing with ideals.

It's not ideal to trade a top six winger for a late first round pick, just like it's not ideal to have to trade Kevin Hayes with uncertainty at center, or Ryan McD without having a defenseman to take his place. So I don't view this as ideal. It stopped being ideal when we committed $20 million to Panarin and Trouba. Now we deal with the aftermath of those decisions, both good and bad, and what that means.

As for a top six winger, assuming Panarin doesn't fall off a cliff, I think I'm fairly comfortable going with Kakko, Kravtsov and Buchnevich as the other 3 wingers on our top two lines. And that's assuming Chytil and Andersson remain at center.

To me, the risk is on par with what we've already seen at center. If anything, I actually like our chances of having guys step up and show themselves to be first or second line wings slightly more than I like our chances of having a guy step and claim the second line center.

Personally, I'm not looking for the stars to magically align, but I am looking at needing some flexibility as we sort through all of this. I honestly think that's going to be tough with Kreider resigning.

It has nothing to do with his value, or his role. IMO, it's a logistics challenge.

I don't think the Hayes thing is a fair comparison. And seeing how he played for Winnipeg in the playoffs, it was the right decision. Hayes going to Philly to play for AV tells me all I need to know about what his intentions were.

Are any of the young guys LWs though? Is Kravstov playing left or right in Hartford. I want flexibility too but I also don't want to shoehorn guys into positions they're not comfortable playing or aren't as effective in. Logistically, you try and keep your best players. Just my opinion. And I fully expect them to trade Kreider.

 

[Tawnos]

But the reality is, I don't think we need to cut it quite so close.

We have very good options in Kakko, Kravtsov and Buchneich. So it's not like there's this empty void where it's Kreider and someone like Lettieri, with nothing in between.

And that's without considering the possibility that Chytil, Andersson, and possibly even Barron could be in that mix as well.

Would I like to keep Kreider as a second line LW? Sure. But I don't think it's so desperate that we need to make things this tight or challenging as we look to fill out the rest of the roster either. That scenario is going to create some serious challenges, with or without everything falling into place.

Realistically, I don't think there's a chance we won't be cutting it close next year.

Beyond that, while the cap isn't going to jump to $100m, we do have the new TV contract coming as well as, hopefully, another franchise that will pull the midpoint up. If they re-jigger how the cap is calculated, there will be compliance buyouts available.

People are always wringing their hands about our cap situation and, even in the years where it was an even more difficult problem, it pretty much always worked out fine.

 

[Edge]

I don't think the Hayes thing is a fair comparison. And seeing how he played for Winnipeg in the playoffs, it was the right decision. Hayes going to Philly to play for AV tells me all I need to know about what his intentions were.

Are any of the young guys LWs though? Is Kravstov playing left or right in Hartford. I want flexibility too but I also don't want to shoehorn guys into positions they're not comfortable playing or aren't as effective in. Logistically, you try and keep your best players. Just my opinion. And I fully expect them to trade Kreider.

Kravtsov actually played quite a bit of LW in the KHL, and if I remember correctly, had better production from that side. @Amazing Kreiderman would know for sure.

So if we assume the first line is Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich, you would aim for a second line of Kravtsov-Chytil-Kakko.

I think Chytil and Andersson could also both be in play as wings, as could Barron. I'm with you on needing more depth on the wings. But that also goes back to me banging the drum about needing more ammo. I sincerely believe we need more moving forward.

As for Hayes, I gotta be honest, I'm already seeing conversations that feel eerily similar and I think the detachment/reaction if we move Kreider is going to once again be strong.

I generally feel like that this path, for better or worse, was decided this past summer. Once we committed to Panarin and Trouba, we allocated 1/4 of our cap space to two players. From that point forward, there were going to be casualties --- with Kreider the most likely suspect.

 

[Edge]

Realistically, I don't think there's a chance we won't be cutting it close next year.

Beyond that, while the cap isn't going to jump to $100m, we do have the new TV contract coming as well as, hopefully, another franchise that will pull the midpoint up. If they re-jigger how the cap is calculated, there will be compliance buyouts available.

People are always wringing their hands about our cap situation and, even in the years where it was an even more difficult problem, it pretty much always worked out fine.

Well it's worked out fine, because we've moved guys. We didn't keep the guys and just keep marching along. We made the necessary changes.

And that's what is likely going to happen here. The change/move will be Kreider this time. And things will work out fine.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Cool but I don't think Gorton is paying Kreider anything north of 6.5 if that high.
Maybe the player to push him down is here or isn't here yet but if Kreider is signed long term and he's still in the top 2 lines by the middle-end of that contract then something went wrong. Don't get me wrong I'd resign him at the right price and length but the consistency is not there to warrant a big long contract and top minutes.

If that player isn't here yet that means you drafted him he four years out from contributing, you gave up something from the roster to acquire him, and then have to pay him, via a trade or you over payed for him in free agency. Kakko, Kravtsov and Buch are all RWs. Personally, I move Buch first.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I don't think the Hayes thing is a fair comparison. And seeing how he played for Winnipeg in the playoffs, it was the right decision. Hayes going to Philly to play for AV tells me all I need to know about what his intentions were.

Are any of the young guys LWs though? Is Kravstov playing left or right in Hartford. I want flexibility too but I also don't want to shoehorn guys into positions they're not comfortable playing or aren't as effective in. Logistically, you try and keep your best players. Just my opinion. And I fully expect them to trade Kreider.

I have a feeling that Krav winds up at C or LW

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Kravtsov actually played quite a bit of LW in the KHL, and if I remember correctly, had better production from that side. @Amazing Kreiderman would know for sure.

So if we assume the first line is Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich, you would aim for a second line of Kravtsov-Chytil-Kakko.

I think Chytil and Andersson could also both be in play as wings, as could Barron. I'm with you on needing more depth on the wings. But that also goes back to me banging the drum about needing more ammo. I sincerely believe we need more moving forward.

As for Hayes, I gotta be honest, I'm already seeing conversations that feel eerily similar and I think the detachment/reaction if we move Kreider is going to once again be strong.

I generally feel like that this path, for better or worse, was decided this past summer. Once we committed to Panarin and Trouba, we allocated 1/4 of our cap space to two players. From that point forward, there were going to be casualties --- with Kreider the most likely suspect.

I'm going to be pissed if they move him, for sure. But if the top 6 you have above works out, that's fine too. But outside of Kakko, I don't see too much push-back, if say, a playoff series gets nasty and physical. I'd still move Buch if it meant keeping Kreider.

 

[Edge]

I'm going to be pissed if they move him, for sure. But if the top 6 you have above works out, that's fine too. But outside of Kakko, I don't see too much push-back, if say, a playoff series gets nasty and physical. I'd still move Buch if it meant keeping Kreider.

Well there is that possibility, and that was something the team explored this past offseason. I think the same approach more or less holds true: the Rangers are willing to move Buch or Kreider, but not both.

Push comes to shove, I think they hold onto Buch - especially if he has chemistry with Zibanejad and Panarin. I think that choice also potentially becomes easier if Kreider underwhelms as a second line wing this season.

As for grit, I share that concern. I think there's hope that a guy like Lemieux can stir things up and play an important role, I think Andersson will contribute as well, but I definitely think they need a bit more sandpaper.

 

[ETTER DE]

I think when you're talking about a salary capped world, we have to realize we aren't dealing with ideals.

It's not ideal to trade a top six winger for a late first round pick, just like it's not ideal to have to trade Kevin Hayes with uncertainty at center, or Ryan McD without having a defenseman to take his place. So I don't view this as ideal. It stopped being ideal when we committed $20 million to Panarin and Trouba. Now we deal with the aftermath of those decisions, both good and bad, and what that means.

As for a top six winger, assuming Panarin doesn't fall off a cliff, I think I'm fairly comfortable going with Kakko, Kravtsov and Buchnevich as the other 3 wingers on our top two lines. And that's assuming Chytil and Andersson remain at center.

To me, the risk is on par with what we've already seen at center. If anything, I actually like our chances of having guys step up and show themselves to be first or second line wings slightly more than I like our chances of having a guy step and claim the second line center.

Personally, I'm not looking for the stars to magically align, but I am looking at needing some flexibility as we sort through all of this. I honestly think that's going to be tough with Kreider resigning.

It has nothing to do with his value, or his role. IMO, it's a logistics challenge.

Agree with what you are saying. But I think that many forget that next season it should be possible to move the whole Smith contract in a package with a younger player and a pick. If you keep Kreider, then one of Lias, Howden, Chytil etc will be moved. If the cap is tight. Always someone who is rebuilding.

 

[Tawnos]

Well it's worked out fine, because we've moved guys. We didn't keep the guys and just keep marching along. We made the necessary changes.

And that's what is likely going to happen here. The change/move will be Kreider this time. And things will work out fine.

Not exactly. We've made choices when we've been forced to by the cap. At this moment, we're not being forced to by the cap to make a choice on Kreider. If they move on from Kreider, it will be because they made the choice to acquire more assets or they'd like to keep him, but can't come to an agreement on term. I don't see him getting so much that they'll be in a situation where the cap is forcing them to make a different choice. At least not in the short-term.

Basically, if we sign Kreider for 4 years, I don't see it forcing our hand elsewhere during that period of time.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Kravtsov actually played quite a bit of LW in the KHL, and if I remember correctly, had better production from that side. @Amazing Kreiderman would know for sure.

So if we assume the first line is Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich, you would aim for a second line of Kravtsov-Chytil-Kakko.

I think Chytil and Andersson could also both be in play as wings, as could Barron. I'm with you on needing more depth on the wings. But that also goes back to me banging the drum about needing more ammo. I sincerely believe we need more moving forward.

As for Hayes, I gotta be honest, I'm already seeing conversations that feel eerily similar and I think the detachment/reaction if we move Kreider is going to once again be strong.

I generally feel like that this path, for better or worse, was decided this past summer. Once we committed to Panarin and Trouba, we allocated 1/4 of our cap space to two players. From that point forward, there were going to be casualties --- with Kreider the most likely suspect.

His spread was even. 25 games on either wing.

 

[Edge]

Not exactly. We've made choices when we've been forced to by the cap. At this moment, we're not being forced to by the cap to make a choice on Kreider. If they move on from Kreider, it will be because they made the choice to acquire more assets or they'd like to keep him, but can't come to an agreement on term. I don't see him getting so much that they'll be in a situation where the cap is forcing them to make a different choice. At least not in the short-term.

Basically, if we sign Kreider for 4 years, I don't see it forcing our hand elsewhere during that period of time.

And that's where we disagree on a few fronts --- which we both know and is fine.

For starters, I think the cap is definitely a factor in the Rangers approach to Kreider, and the Rangers are very much aware of how this looks 2, 3,4 or 7 years down the line.

Second, I think he's going to get a good sized contract and he expects one. I would be very surprised if he's looking for something like 4 years, or a hometown discount that's been suggested.

Third, to echo what I said above, I definitely think his salary will make things tight. Be it four years or seven.

I see a lot of moving parts needing to fall into place for this to work. Looking at the landscape, i'm just not sure it's a good match or that the alternative option isn't the better way to go.

 

[Edge]

His spread was even. 25 games on either wing.

Okay so that's what it was, spread was even, production was higher on the left. But the takeaway is that playing LW is not an abstract concept.

 

[charliemurphy]

Kravtsov actually played quite a bit of LW in the KHL, and if I remember correctly, had better production from that side. @Amazing Kreiderman would know for sure.

So if we assume the first line is Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich, you would aim for a second line of Kravtsov-Chytil-Kakko.

I think Chytil and Andersson could also both be in play as wings, as could Barron. I'm with you on needing more depth on the wings. But that also goes back to me banging the drum about needing more ammo. I sincerely believe we need more moving forward.

As for Hayes, I gotta be honest, I'm already seeing conversations that feel eerily similar and I think the detachment/reaction if we move Kreider is going to once again be strong.

I generally feel like that this path, for better or worse, was decided this past summer. Once we committed to Panarin and Trouba, we allocated 1/4 of our cap space to two players. From that point forward, there were going to be casualties --- with Kreider the most likely suspect.

Kravtsov has played LW before. If they move him to LW then putting him on the same line as Kakko makes sense. If he stays at RW then I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually winds up playing with Panarin down the road.
I don't agree about Barron playing the wing. I think he's built to play center. I've seen a couple of games at Cornell and plan to go back up in January but Barron is somewhat of a dark horse of a prospect. He dominates when he's on the ice and I think has a future on the team... whether its at 2C or at 3C, time will tell but it shouldn't shock anyone if he forces Gorton's hand in trading someone like Howden.
Its asking a lot from the kids and resigning Kreider (if you're a fan of him, lol) on the cheap but with all the current players on the roster and in the system with everything falling into place you could potentially down the road have the top 3 lines being...
Panarin-Zib-Kravtsov
Chytil-Andersson-Kakko
Krieder-Barron-Butch
To me, if all of them are clicking it presents a much deeper and dynamic team. That 3rd line would not be the typical 3rd line we're used to seeing. I'm really curious how it all pans out since many of those players can play multiple positions... Zib played on Andersson's wing in the worlds a season ago if I'm not mistaken. Its a good problem to have. I think if Chytil and Andersson take a big step this season it will clear up a lot second guessing as to who plays where... and if they can click with Kakko then all the better.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Okay so that's what it was, spread was even, production was higher on the left. But the takeaway is that playing LW is not an abstract concept.

Happy to help